Baltic Dry Index. 940 +24
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"Anytime you don't want anything, you get it."
Calvin Coolidge.
Is 2012, the 21st century version
of 1914? It’s starting to feel that way, although thankfully this time round it’s
not Europe in play but the Middle East. Below, the Middle East slides towards a
generalised regional war. From Lebanon to Afghanistan, all risk turning into an
anarchic Iraq at its worst. But a regional
war won’t easily be contained. Just as regional war in Europe in 1914 went on to
become a World War, a Middle East war will likely quickly bring in Turkey, Egypt
and the Arabian peninsula. Stay long physical precious metals. Any of the
players in the Middle East is capable of miscalculating and inadvertently
setting in play an unstoppable war. Last week the risk of that outcome was
sharply raised. The west seems to have
no viable plan to head off this drift to a Middle East war.
Israel Warns of ‘Painful’ Response to Bombings From Gaza, Syria
By Jonathan Ferziger and Saud
Abu Ramadan - Nov 11, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
Israeli leaders vowed to escalate military operations against the Gaza Strip
after two days of Palestinian rocket attacks and warned Syria that additional
cross-border fire would bring a “painful” response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel won’t “sit idly by” after more than 65 missiles fired from Gaza yesterday caused property damage and injuries in neighboring Israeli communities. Defense Minister Ehud Barak raised the prospect of a new ground offensive, the first since Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza in 2009 after a three-week military assault that left more than 1,100 Palestinians dead.
“If we have to re-enter to strike Hamas and provide security for Israeli citizens, we won’t hesitate,” Barak said, speaking at an international defense industry conference in Tel Aviv.
Violence in Gaza increased amid concern about renewed conflict on Israel’s northern border with Syria, its quietest frontier since the 1973 Middle East War.
----“We are closely monitoring what is happening on our border with Syria and there we are also ready for any development,” Netanyahu said at his weekly Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.
“The
Israeli military has been instructed to prevent” the Syrian conflict “from
spilling over into our territory,” Barak said in Tel Aviv. “Additional shelling
into Israel from Syria will elicit a tougher response, exacting a higher price
from Syria.”
----The latest violence in the south was ignited when Palestinian militants fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli patrol along the Gaza Strip border fence Nov. 10, wounding four soldiers, the army said in an e-mailed statement. The Israeli military responded with tank shelling and several air strikes into Gaza, including a direct hit on one rocket-launching squad, killing six and wounding more than 30, according to Ashraf al- Qedra, spokesman for the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza.
At least 65 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel in the past two days, damaging a number of buildings and injuring three people lightly, said Micky Rosenfeld, a police spokesman.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-11/israel-warns-of-painful-response-to-bombings-from-gaza-syria.html
Nov 11,
8:14 AM EST
Israel drawn into Syria fighting for first time
By AMY
TEIBEL Associated Press
JERUSALEM
(AP) -- Israel was drawn into the Syrian civil war for the first time on
Sunday, firing warning shots into the neighboring country after a stray mortar
shell fired from Syrian territory hit an Israeli military post.
The
Israeli military said the mortar fire caused no injuries or damage at the post
in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war
and then annexed. But in recent weeks, incidents of errant fire from Syria have
multiplied, leading Israel to warn that it holds Syria responsible for fire on
Israeli-held territory.
"A
short while ago, a mortar shell targeted an IDF (Israel Defense Forces) post in
the Golan Heights," said army spokeswoman Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich.
"We answered with a warning shot toward Syrian areas. We understand this
was a mistake and was not meant to target Israel and then that is why we fired
a warning shot in retaliation."
The
Israeli military also said it has filed a complaint through United Nations
forces operating in the area, stating that "fire emanating from Syria into
Israel will not be tolerated and shall be responded to with severity."
----Israel
fears that if Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is toppled, the country
could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists or descend into sectarian
warfare, destabilizing the region.
Israeli
officials do not see Assad trying to intentionally draw Israel into the
fighting, but have raised the possibility of his targeting Israel in an act of
desperation. They also fear that Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons or other
weapons could slip into the hands of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group - a
close Syrian ally - or reach other militants if Assad loses power.
More
In other news, the 21st century seems to be turning into an escalating race away from the disaster of a world based on fiat currency. The Great Nixonian Error of fiat money is coming towards its end. The benefits of fiat currency were all front loaded and long ago dissipated. Now a bankrupt west staggers crisis to crisis waiting for something to turn up. All know that the existing fiat system will eventually collapse. Only the timing and cause remain uncertain. Whether the USA really still has its claimed gold reserves will be found out, later this century. It’s not even certain that most of Germany’s gold reserves exists except on paper. Stay long precious metals for the long run. The profligacy and deceit of the last century is coming undone.
China Lags U.S. in Gold Holdings, May Raise Total, LBMA Says
By Glenys Sim - Nov 12, 2012 5:44 AM GMT
The Chinese government may add more gold to its reserves as the precious
metal accounts for a lower share of total holdings compared with the U.S.,
according to the London Bullion Market Association. “When comparing China to the U.S., it would seem that in China, gold asset allocation can only go in one direction,” Chairman David Gornall told the association’s conference in Hong Kong today. “The country has only 2 percent of its reserves in the form of gold compared with the U.S. at 75 percent.”
Gold is set for a 12th annual gain, supported by central-
bank buying and record holdings in exchange-traded products as investors seek
to preserve their wealth from falling currencies. The People’s Bank of China
hasn’t disclosed any changes to its gold holdings since 2009, when it said
they’d risen 76 percent to 1,054 metric tons. While the U.S., Germany, Italy
and France keep more than 70 percent of reserves in gold, China’s share is less
than 2 percent, according to World Gold Council data.
----Brazil, South Korea and Russia are among countries that added gold this year, data from the International Monetary Fund show. Nations bought 254.2 tons in the first half and may add close to 500 tons this year, the World Gold Council said in August, exceeding the 456 tons added in 2011. China has the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, totaling $3.29 trillion in September, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
“Emerging-market economies from the G-20 countries are looking to elevate their gold holdings,” Ashish Bhatia, manager of government affairs at the producer-funded WGC, said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday. There’s “renewed interest from central banks on the demand side.”
More
We end for today
watching more of Club Med unravel. Stay long physical precious metals. When the
European Monetary Union breaks up, as it will, the flight out of paper currencies
into real money will then begin.
Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance,
and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
Winston Churchill.
10
November 2012 - 20H13
Thousands of Portuguese soldiers protest budget cuts
AFP - Thousands of Portuguese soldiers
marched Saturday in Lisbon to protest cuts announced in next year's budget,
with some calling for the measures to be tested in the constitutional court.
Dressed
in civilian clothing, they marched silently behind banners calling for respect
for the military and "national sovereignty". Media estimates put the
numbers at around 5,000.
"We
are getting cut after cut and there is no light at the end of the tunnel,"
one soldier, who did not want to be named, told AFP.
"These
austerity measures are hitting us a lot," said one senior navy officer,
saying their special military status had not spared them. His net monthly wage
had been cut by 500 euros to 2,000 euros since 2010, he added.
----A
number of associations representing serving soldiers have called on President
Anibal Cavaco Silva to put the new budget before the constitutional court to
test its legality.
In July,
the court rejected a finance law that deprived civil servants of bonuses,
arguing that it violated the constitutionally guaranteed rights to equality of
treatment. The government to revise the measure.
Last
month, the country's centre-right coalition adopted an austerity budget for
2013 that includes swingeing public spending cuts and sharp tax increases, in
the face of public protests.
The
measures are required by the country's international creditors: the European
Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, extended
a 78-billion-euro ($101-billion) bailout in May 2011.
----On Tuesday, hundreds of police officer marched on parliament to list their own grievances, which include a freeze on early retirement and the loss of the right to free public transport.
Portugal's
main trade union confederation, the CGPT has called general strike for next
Wednesday.
More
Europe Finance Chiefs Seek Greek Pact as Economy Gloom Grows
By Patrick Donahue - Nov 12, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
European
finance chiefs will seek a program to maintain Greek solvency today after the
country’s parliament approved a raft of austerity measures, even as the
currency union confronts the prospect of a worsening economy.
Finance
ministers from the 17-member group will meet at 5 p.m. in Brussels following
the Nov. 8 agreement by Greek lawmakers to make cuts in pensions and benefits.
While the ministers are unlikely to finalize an updated aid package, a European
official said Nov. 9 that they’ll find a way to overcome a gap in the country’s
financing this week.
----While a two-month-old European
Central Bank bond-buying plan has helped ease borrowing costs for euro-area
countries, leaders including Chancellor Angela Merkel are confronting an
additional challenge as economic malaise reaches Germany, whose indicators last
week showed growth grinding to a halt.
----While ministers probably won’t approve 31.5 billion
euros ($40 billion) in fresh loans to Greece, the maturing of 5 billion euros
of Greek bills on Nov. 16 won’t lead to an “accidental default,” a European
official said last week.
----Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Nov. 6 he needs to know how much the ECB would push down Spain’s borrowing costs before his government signs up to any conditions attached to aid. Draghi said last week that the decision must be taken by Spain and the ECB “can’t give any assurances ex ante.”
Yields on
Spain’s 10-year bonds have fallen below 6 percent since the ECB’s plan emerged,
down from a peak in July of 7.6 percent. They closed at 5.8 percent on Nov. 9.
“I would
be surprised if a Spanish request will be realized this side of New Year,”
UniCredit’s Nielsen said.
More
At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 36.41
Moz, Eligible 106.60 Moz, Total 143.01 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
With yet
another EU “leaders” summit coming up on November 22, supposedly to decide how
much of long suffering EU taxpayer’s money the Eurorats in Brussels get to
steal and waste 2014-2020, “the American’s of Europe” are reverting to type and
making bullying demands again. Below Der Spiegel trumpets German demands on
Britain and France. As with American voters, those nations receiving all the
goodies from Brussels will vote in
favour of the ever expanding Brussels budget. Those nations paying-in
will vote against it. Making German demands on the UK to pay more, is the
fastest way I know of getting UKIP elected to lead Great Britain out of the
German prison camp known as Europe. Berlin needs to realise that with Britain
out, Germany would have to pick up the lion’s share of the UK’s former
contribution. Since the UK runs a large trade deficit with Europe, they need us
in more than the UK needs to stay. The United States of Europe project long ago
went off the rails.
I seem to smell the stench of appeasement in the air.
Margaret Thatcher.
11/09/2012
EU Budget Battle Berlin and Brussels Demand More from London and Paris
London
must be more willing to compromise, and Paris needs to get on the economic
reform bandwagon. At least, that is what top European and German politicians
are demanding as tough EU budget talks swiftly approach. Two more influential
voices have now blasted Britain and France.
The European Commission and top German
politicians are becoming increasingly exasperated with both France and Britain
as the summit in Brussels to determine the EU budget for the seven-year period
from 2014 to 2020 approaches.
Both
countries have been insistent on getting their way as member states position
themselves for what promise to be difficult talks -- and both London and Paris
have threatened to veto the budget if it doesn't meet their expectations. In
response, European Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, Germany's
representative on the EU's executive body, has harshly criticized the two
countries.
In a
speech before the German association representing magazine publishers in the
country, Oettinger warned against "cheap populism" when reporting on
Greece, before saying "my problem children are France and Great
Britain." By way of explanation, he said that with its anti-EU course,
London has "taken leave of its senses." He added that tabloids such
as The Sun appear to be trying to force Britain out of the EU. Turning
to France, he said the country had too little industry and innovation.
Oettinger's
comments were echoed on Friday by a close confidant of Chancellor Angela Merkel
in an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE. Volker Kauder, head of Merkel's conservatives
in parliament, said that "Europe will not make progress without a
functioning Franco-German axis."
Kauder
was critical of France's socialist leadership, saying that "we can only
hope that President François Hollande moves a bit closer to the chancellor"
when it comes to combating the euro crisis. He added: "It would be good if
the socialists there undertook real and courageous structural reforms. That
would be good for the country and good for Europe."
----France,
for its part, has threatened to veto the budget if it doesn't include a
continuation of generous agricultural subsidies. Last week, Merkel -- who would
also like to see the budget reduced, though not to the degree proposed by
Britain -- urged leaders to avoid inflammatory rhetoric. "I don't want to
throw more vetoes into the room," she said. "It doesn't help bring
about a solution."
Still, for all the recent pleas for compromise coming from Berlin and Brussels, there have been no signs that Cameron is preparing to back down. At a dinner in London with Merkel on Wednesday night, the two made little progress in reconciling their positions. Next week, the British prime minister plans to fly to Rome for a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on the upcoming budget showdown.
And if Cameron does ultimately refuse to budge, it seems certain that he will have the support of most Britons. According to a new survey published by the German public opinion research group YouGov on Friday, some 49 percent of British citizens would vote in favor of their country withdrawing from the EU if a referendum were held. Only 28 percent would vote to stay.
More
Below, a
“Yes Minister” policy reminder to the UK Prime Minister.
Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the
same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to
create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish with the Germans against the
French, with the French and Italians against the German, and with
the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you
see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
Hacker: That's all ancient history,
surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We
'had' to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up
from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a
complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the
French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The
Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
Hacker: But surely we're all committed
to the European ideal?
Sir Humphrey: [chuckles] Really,
Minister.
Hacker: If not, why are we pushing for
an increase in the membership?
Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It's
just like the United Nations,
in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more
futile and impotent it becomes.
Hacker: What appalling cynicism.
Sir Humphrey: Yes... We call it diplomacy,
Minister.
Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference.
Winston Churchill.
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up.
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