Baltic Dry Index. 947 -24
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for
so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is
part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not
have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J. K. Galbraith
Thankfully Americans made up their minds to
vote for a decision on the day. Americans, and the rest of the world will thankfully
be spared weeks of court challenges questioning the result. American voters
seem to have voted for more of the same. The Democrats get the spoils of the
presidency and the Senate, as before. The Republicans get the spoils of the
House of Congress and a tax veto. Without a little goodwill, four more years of
animosity and campaigning probably lie ahead. For the rest of the world, a sigh
of relief. Better the devil we know, of sorts. We will not now get a new trade
war with China starting in January. President Putin will not start to be
slapped around, early next year.
That the incumbent President won, is no surprise.
The surprise lies in the weakness of the win. As at the time of writing,
President Obama has won by about a half of one percent, or by about half a
million votes out of the almost 105 million cast. The danger is that two
Americas have emerged. Two Americas that seem to largely loathe each other. In
many of the “red” states, the President trailed in 60:40. In theory none of
this should matter. America only gets one president at a time. One government at
a time. In practise it’s often a different matter. History has too many
examples of a house divided ending badly. Still with four more years of
President Obama, it likely means four more years of “Helicopter” Ben’s QE
forever targeting stocks. For more years
to get to change America’s Supreme Court.
"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
November
6, 2012, 4:16 a.m. ET
Japan Data Points to Economy Near Recession
TOKYO—An
index of data most reflective of the current state of Japan's economy fell
sharply in September, pointing to the nation being on the verge of a recession
amid falling exports and shrinking industrial output.
The
coincident composite index, which consists of 11 key indicators, including
industrial output and retail sales, dropped 2.3 points on month to 91.2, the
Cabinet Office said Tuesday. Excluding March 2011, September's fall was the
biggest since February 2009 and marked the sixth straight month of declines.
More
Eurozone combined output falls at fastest rate since 2009
The downturn in Europe deepened as the combined output in manufacturing and services fell at the sharpest pace since July 2009, according to official data.
By
Rebecca Clancy 9:37AM GMT 06 Nov 2012
The
downturn spread to the core economies of the 17-nation bloc, with output
falling at both manufacturers and service providers in all of the big-four
economies.
Ireland,
which was the second country to receive a bailout, recorded the only positive
performance, where faster rates of expansion in manufacturing and services took
combined growth to a 20-month peak.
The
Markit eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to 45.7 in October, down from
46.1 in September and the earlier flash estimate of 45.8. Overall activity has now
fallen for nine straight months.
Manufacturing
production fell for the eighth month running, as companies experienced reduced
inflows of new orders from domestic clients and lower intra- and extra-eurozone
trade.
Meanwhile,
service sector activity meanwhile fell at the sharpest pace since July 2009.
Steep
contractions were signalled for Spain, France and Italy in October, although
the rates of decline eased slightly in each of these nations compared with one
month earlier.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9657745/Eurozone-combined-output-falls-at-fastest-rate-since-2009.html
Debt crisis: German economic data is a 'catastrophe', say economists
German factory orders recorded their biggest drop for a year according to figures that lead a raft of economic data from Spain, France and Italy, that underscored the advancing debt crisis.
The
German finance ministry said factory orders were down 3.3pc in September from
the month before shocking economists who had forecast a 0.4pc drop, according
to Bloomberg poll.
Taken
with figures showing German business confidence has fallen to the lowest in
two-and-a-half years, the data was described as “a catastrophe and very bad
news” by Thomas Harjes, European economist at Barclays in Frankfurt. “We have a
huge problem in the rest of the euro area that now seems to be reaching Germany
and its labour market,” he said. “For the coming quarters, the economic outlook
is quite gloomy.”
Fresh
data from Markit Economics showed that the eurozone’s combined output of the
manufacturing and services sector fell at the fastest pace since June 2009. The
composite PMI for the 17 member states fell to 45.7 in October, down from 46.1
in September. It was the nineth consecutive monthly fall.
Politicians
continued to argue over the rescue mechanisms. Germany’s “wiseman” panel of
economic advisers said the European Central Bank’s radical bond buying
programme - the prospect of which has underpinned the markets since the summer
- should only be used in an emergency and should not be relied upon as a
permanent method for economic stabilisation.
Spain is
braced for the European Commission to axe its forecast growth for the country
after El Pais obtained a draft of the predictions. According to the Spanish
newspaper, the EC, which is due to publish figures tomorrow has changed its
forecast for 2013 GDP from 0.5pc to 1.5pc.
Sharp fall in industrial output, denting recovery hopes
British industrial output fell more than expected in September, data showed on Tuesday, raising fears that the economy will contract in the fourth quarter.
Manufacturing
output rose by 0.1pc in September on the month after a downwardly revised drop
of 1.2pc in August, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had
predicted a monthly 0.3pc rise.
The wider
reading of industrial output, which includes energy production and mining, fell
by 1.7pc in September after a 0.5pc drop in August.
Excluding
a decline in June that was affected by an extra public holiday, the monthly
reading was the lowest since August 2009 and below forecasts for a 0.6pc drop
on the month.
Samuel
Tombs at Capital Economics said the industrial production figures suggest that
"the economic recovery is quickly losing momentum again".
Although
the figures were not weak enough on their own to prompt a downward revision to
the preliminary estimate that the economy grew 1pc in the third quarter, Mr
Tombs believed that weal data points to further falls in output ahead.
While
America comes to terms with next year’s political line-up, we end today with
Europe’s ever more crooked European Union. Despite 18 years of not being able
to sign off on the EU’s accounts, the European Court of Auditors once again
yesterday found the EU’s accounts in disarray. While the Greeks, on yet another
general strike, brace for a new round of austerity from their Parliament, in
Brussels it’s the life of Riley for Eurorats living high on the hog.
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."
William F. Rickenbacker
Audit 'seriously undermines credibility' of EU spending
The British government has warned that the latest audit of Brussels spending "seriously undermines the credibility of the EU's financial management".
British
opposition to Brussels budget increases hardened on Tuesday after the EU's
auditor failed to give a clean bill of health to £89 billion of spending
"affected by material error".
The
European Court of Auditors reported on Tuesday that controls over 86 per cent
of the EU budget last year were only "partially effective", a
conclusion that has further polarised the battle over European Commission
demands for a sharp rise in spending.
Vitor
Caldeira, the ECA's chairman, said that auditors had "found too many cases
of EU money not hitting the target or being used sub-optimally" at a time
when national public spending was being cut and the eurozone was imposing
austerity targets.
"Times
are hard. With Europe's public finances under severe pressure, there remains
scope to spend EU money more efficiently and in a better targeted manner,"
he said. "EU financial management is not yet up to standard."
Despite
18 years of critical reports by the auditors, the Commission and European
Parliament have defied calls for austerity measures at the EU level by
demanding an 11 per cent increase to long-term Brussels expenditure from 2014
to 2020.
----Marta Andreasen, the commission's former chief accountant and now a Ukip MEP, said: "This is now the 18th year in a row that the ECA has refused to give the EU Budget a clean bill of health. Worse still the 'error rate', shorthand for unnacounted money, is on the rise."
Kersti
Kaljulaid, an Estonian member of the ECA, also highlighted concerns over the
increased frequency rate for "material error" in audited EU projects
which rose by eight per cent in 2011, from 36 to 44 per cent.
More
At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 36.26
Moz, Eligible 105.75 Moz, Total 142.01 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, Club Med
again, where taxes are for little people, laws opt in opt out, with any bills
to be sent to Berlin.
"We
don't pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes."
Leona
Helmsley.
Italian police seize castle in €65m tax probe
Italian police have seized assets worth €65m (£51.9m) in a tax probe involving the €5.3bn sale of fashion houses Hugo Boss and Valentino in 2007.
By
Telegraph staff and agencies 8:42AM GMT 06 Nov 2012
Italy's tax police said on Monday they
had confiscated real estate, including a 15th century castle, land and
corporate holdings of 13 people "linked to one of Italy's most important
families in the fashion and textile sector".
A person
familiar with the investigation told Reuters the 13 people in question were
linked to the Marzotto group, and included members of the Marzotto family.
Marzotto
sold Valentino Fashion Group - then including both the Valentino label and Hugo
Boss - to private finance group Permira in 2007.
The
assets, including apartments in Milan and Rome, a 25-room villa in Alpine
resort Cortina d’Ampezzo and land, were taken preventively to cover €65m in
taxes the 13 people are suspecting of having dodged when they booked a €200m
capital gain from selling Valentino, reports the Financial Times.
The
Marzotto family members avoided Italian tax obligations by using a
Luxembourg-based holding company for the Valentino sale.
Those
under investigation are suspected of not having filed tax returns.
A
spokesperson for the Marzotto Group declined to comment, saying the news did
not involve the company or any of its units.
The
Italian government has set fighting chronic tax evasion as one of its
priorities as it seeks to come to grips with the country's towering debt crisis
and find resources to fund growth.
Lawyers
representing the Marzotto family said the decision taken by Milan prosecutors
ordering the seizure was "totally groundless".
The
lawyers said bank documents showed capital gains from the operation had been
declared and taxed.
"I
acknowledge the seizure measures. I think it right only to point out that I did
not have any operative position in the company in which I was minority
partner," Matteo Marzotto, a board member of the textile family group,
said in a statement.
The
seized castle, Villa Trissino Marzotto, is near the town of Vicenza and has
been in the Marzotto family for 60 years. With more than 50 rooms, it was
expanded in the 18th century and has on its grounds two Italian-style geometrical
gardens, a small forest, a road lined with lemon trees and more than 100
statues, reports the Financial Times.
More
Date set for Dolce & Gabbana's tax evasion trial
Designers Domenico Dolce and Stefano Gabbana are to stand trial for tax evasion totalling €416 million.
30 October 2012
The design duo will appear in an Italian court on December
3 accused of evading €416 million of tax in relation to the sale of the Dolce
& Gabbana and D&G brands to the designers' Luxembourg-based holding
company Gado Srl. The Italian police consider Gado Srl to be a legal body set
up to enable the pair to avoid the country's high corporate taxes.
The Guardia di Finanza, an Italian police force under the authority of the national minister of economy and finance, first brought the charges against the pair and five of their business associates in 2007, however, in April 2011 they were dismissed by a lower court, which deemed there was no foundation for a trial. The Italian Supreme Court overturned that decision last November, saying that "tax avoidance, or tax mitigation, on an earnings declaration is a criminal offence under the law," reports WWD. Previously, tax avoidance was not considered a criminal offence.
Although neither Dolce & Gabbana have commented on the trial date, both have previously denied any wrongdoing and have claimed they have a clear conscience.
If convicted, the designers and their co-accused business associates could face up to three years in prison, or a fine of up to €1 million.
Link
http://fashion.telegraph.co.uk/article/TMG9642607/Date-set-for-Dolce-and-Gabbanas-tax-evasion-trial.html
A person doesn't know how much he has to be thankful for until he has to pay taxes on it.
Anon.
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up.
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