Baltic Dry Index. 1000 -26
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
The
word you hear again and again these days in the City is that France is on
borrowed time. Nobody knows when that shoe will drop, but the economy will
almost certainly crash into recession over the winter, if it has not already.
Daily
Telegraph.
For more on the French socialist version of Russian
roulette, where you put 5 bullets in the chambers and spin, scroll down to
Crooks Corner. The EMU is doomed with France on course for national suicide,
all the austerity suffering of Ireland and Club Med is in vain. Stay long
physical precious metals for the coming debacle.
We open today with a worried eye on the Baltic Dry Index
which is flirting again with 1000 to the downside. Earlier we had posited that
it had double bottomed at about 660 in the middle of the year with 663 in
December 2008. While that is still holding and while Asia, ex Japan, seems to
have bottomed, I will still stick to my tentative guess that 2012 early 2013
represents the switch back to the beginning of the new if weak upturn. But as
Prime Minister Harold Macmillan warned back in the 1960s when asked what he
feared most, “events” can make even the best lain plans and guesses go wrong.
One such event if a military clash between China and
Japan over 3 uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. My reading of history
and the treaties and declarations ending World War Two, is that China has the
rightful claim to sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands. After WW2 America took
custody and administration over the islands and in 1972 to thwart Mao’s
murderous communism, passed administration over the islands to Japan. But
America never held sovereignty and couldn’t pass sovereignty over to the
Japanese.
Looking back on it now it was as big an error as the Great Nixonian
Error of ending the dollar-gold link. At least it will become as big an error
if China and Japan actually clash.
Below, Bloomberg on the latest developments.
Interestingly, the article states:
the U.S. recognizes Japan’s administrative control of the
islands, so it’s bound by Article V of the Japan-U.S. security treaty to
consult with Japan “whenever the security of Japan or international peace and
security in the Far East is threatened.” Both Clinton and U.S. Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta also have made that point.
From London I take
that to be the US signalling Japan not to expect US military help in any clash,
though they can expect a nice hand holding “consultation.” It’s also
interesting that the article only uses the weasel words “the U.S. recognizes
Japan’s administrative control of the islands” and
not sovereignty. I see a pragmatic, trade driven sovereignty U-turn up ahead, Japan
badly needs to reconsider their long term best interests. Better to give them
to Taiwan to administer, while awaiting the final resolution of the remaining
China-Taiwan one nation two systems issue. But Is rather think the time for
that gambit has already passed. Similarly for Japan renting them on a 99 year
lease starting from 1972, somewhat as Britain rented the New Territories of the
old Hong Kong.
Clinton Warned of Military Danger in China-Japan Dispute
By John
Walcott and Indira A.R. Lakshmanan - Nov 2, 2012 1:30 AM GMT
The festering dispute between China and Japan over five uninhabited islands
could spin out of control unless the countries improve their communication with
each other, according to a confidential report submitted to Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton this week by a delegation of former U.S. officials. The bipartisan four-person delegation met last week with Japan’s prime minister and China’s vice premier, who is expected to take over as prime minister, and both countries’ foreign ministers. The U.S. group warns Clinton in its written report that, while neither side wants a confrontation, a mistake or miscalculation could escalate into a military face-off.
----Clinton dispatched the mission in an
effort to assess ways to reduce mounting tensions in light of Japan’s
nationwide elections next year, an imminent leadership change in China and
rising nationalist rhetoric in both Asian countries over the islands in the
East China Sea. The five islands are called Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in
Chinese. Taiwan, which calls them Diaoyutai, also claims the chain, which is
surrounded by undersea oil and natural gas fields.
----While some Chinese officials grumbled, Chinese analysts had harsher reactions, with some accusing Japan and the U.S. of trying to overturn the outcome of World War II, according to two of the U.S. members. That, said one delegate, was echoed by what he called rude remarks by Chinese Lieutenant General Ren Hiaquan in Australia this week.
Addressing a high-level military conference in Melbourne, Ren, vice president of the People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Science, called Japan a former fascist nation that had bombed the northern Australian city of Darwin and said territorial disputes could trigger open war, according to The Australian newspaper and two attendees at the meeting.
More
Japan May Have Entered Recessionary Phase, Some BOJ Members Say
By Toru Fujioka - Nov 2, 2012 1:58 AM GMT
Japan’s economy, the world’s third biggest, may have entered a “recessionary
phase,” according to some Bank of Japan board members. The possibility “could not be ruled out,” a few policy makers said at an Oct. 4-5 policy meeting, according to minutes released in Tokyo today. A Cabinet Office official at the meeting said the government and the central bank need to “deepen their dialogues,” the record showed.
Economists at Nomura Securities Co. and Citigroup Inc. (C) revised down their forecasts for Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product after industrial production fell the steepest in September since last year’s earthquake. The Bank of Japan (8301) may remain under pressure to add monetary stimulus after it this week expanded an asset-purchase fund by 11 trillion yen ($137 billion).
Finance Minister Koriki Jojima said in parliament today that the economy shows signs of weakening and pledged to work with the BOJ to overcome the nation’s deflationary trend.
Nomura Securities said on Oct. 30 it expects the Japanese economy to contract an annualized 5.1 percent in the three months to September, followed by a 0.3 percent shrinkage in the next quarter. Citigroup and Credit Suisse Group AG are also among those forecasting two quarters of contraction through year-end.
More
In European news, Greece seems to be getting a
Germanic “Bums rush” towards the door. Is Christmas 2012 what’s in mind? Better
to take it before the “Dutchman” blows up France.
Greek Stocks Tumble Amid Concerns on Government Stability
By Tom Stoukas and Jana
Randow - Nov 2, 2012 12:00 AM GMT
Greek stocks are headed for the biggest weekly retreat in four years as
coalition government lawmakers squabble over austerity that a Bundesbank
official warned must be enforced to keep bailout funds flowing. The country’s benchmark ASE Index (ASE) dropped 5 percent yesterday, taking its decline so far this week to 13 percent after the government unveiled debt forecasts falling further behind its targets. Shares extended declines after a Greek court ruled that planned pension cuts may be unconstitutional.
more
Greece Must Help Itself to Fix Crisis, Bundesbank’s Dombret Says
By Jana Randow - Nov 1, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said Greece is far behind in
implementing its reform program and shouldn’t rely on international creditors
like the European Union to solve its problems. “Politicians and the EU are willing to assist Greece, but Greece must, first and foremost, help itself,” Dombret said in a speech in New York today. “Announcing and passing laws is not enough if the administration and the general public undermine them. It is now the task of the troika to decide impartially whether Greece meets the conditions for further assistance.”
Euro-area governments are pressing Greece, which faces a sixth year of recession, to make deeper spending cuts to unlock a 31-billion euro ($40 billion) aid payout in November. Luxembourg Prime Minister
Jean-Claude Juncker urged Greek lawmakers yesterday to solve remaining issues before finance ministers gather in Brussels on Nov. 12.
While Greece is “way behind the program goals due to the standstill in consolidation and basic structural reforms,” other countries are making progress, Dombret said. “My favorite example is Ireland, which shows that trust can be regained if the agreed measures are adopted and implemented.”
More
We end for the week with “Lucky Goldman.” They
really must be doing “God’s work” after all.
Der Spiegel. November 01,
2012.
For almost a week, it was
clear that Hurricane Sandy was coming, but nothing was undertaken. Sandbags
were only placed around the Goldman Sachs headquarters. Maybe that was the
reason why our apartment building still had power. It is located only about 250
feet away from the investment bank's central offices.
Conspiracy theories are
circling about why Goldman Sachs continued to run at full speed, while just a
few hundred meters down on Wall Street on Wednesday it was deadly silent.
More
"God, no, we don't club baby seals. We club babies."
Goldmanite, quoted in The Times of London. November 8 2009
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 36.16
Moz, Eligible 106.68 Moz, Total 142.84 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on the
French national suicide of old wealth-envy socialism. Unfortunately, French
national suicide is also suicide for the rest of the European Monetary Union.
Stay long physical gold and silver. All the austerity pain in countries like
Greece and Ireland is meaningless if France pursues national suicide.
The
trouble with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.
Margaret
Thatcher.
Don't cry for me, François
Economics Last updated: November 1st, 2012
French
leader François Hollande is uncomfortably close to a collapse in credibility.
His poll rating has sunk to 36pc. The speed of decline has been shocking.
The
latest broadside comes from ex-German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, supposedly
his ally on the Left.
"The
election promises of the French president are going to shatter on the walls of
economic reality," he said in Paris.
The
backsliding in the retirement age is indefensible and "cannot be
financed". Two or three more blunders of this kind and "reality will
catch up with our French friends".
Mr
Schröder knows what it takes to claw back competitiveness. He lost his
chancellorship on the Hartz IV labour reforms.
This tale
of political sacrifice can be exaggerated of course. The Hartz IV reforms are
not the chief reason why Germany is super-competitive today within EMU. The
country’s hiring and firing laws are among the least reformed in the OECD to
this day.
The
Teutonic machine regained a labour edge by screwing down wages for year after
year (as companies like VW threatened to relocate plant to Eastern Europe). It
was an internal devaluation. Hartz IV was the icing on the cake.
Be that
as it may, there is no doubt that Berlin is seriously worried about the
strategic direction of France. Le Figaro – which now seems to launch daily
attacks of considerable ferocity against the hapless Hollande – had a two-page
spread today on German disgust with the new sick man of Europe.
The French are living in Alice and Wonderland. Bild Zeitung
asked whether France is becoming the "new Greece". You get the drift
----The
government will tighten fiscal policy by 2pc of GDP next year, with two-thirds
coming from higher taxes. This ignores the lessons of reform around the world
over the last half century that tax rises to do more damage in a slump than
spending cuts.
The
French state is gobbling up 55pc of GDP, similar to Sweden and Demark but
without their free market system. Nothing is being done to tackle this.
----
And remember, France no longer has its own currency and sovereign monetary
control levers. It is at the mercy of others.
More
“I
have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left
to the politicians.”
Charles
de Gaulle.
Another weekend, and our thoughts are with those who
suffered loss and damage from America’s great storm. With those too, who are
struggling on for days without, water, heat and electric power. It all just
goes to show how much of God’s order, the rest of us take for granted. Have a
great weekend everyone.
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA:
+92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up
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