Monday, 19 November 2012

An Economic Sandy Appears.



Baltic Dry Index. 1036  +12

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“Above all, spending on the common agricultural policy must be preserved”.

French President Hollande.

For once we get to lead with the USA, where business investment “has fallen off a cliff,” according to the Wall Street Journal.  With typical Yankee understatement, "The whole world is looking for stability and clarity from the United States," said David Seaton, chief executive of Fluor Corp. Actually the whole world probably isn’t. We all have preoccupation with our own local problems, not that getting stability and clarity from America’s two warring tribes wouldn’t be helpful. It’s just that as problems go on this Monday before Thanksgiving in America, stability and clarity in the United States is a little lower down the order of unsettling things this November Monday morning. Topping the order is likely is Israel going to launch a ground invasion of wretched Gaza, or not? And has President Obama already become a lame duck president, ignored by all? Right behind that comes two wretched Euro meetings this week. Tomorrow’s eurozone finance ministers pre-leaders fight, punch up intended to cobble together some sort of new fix for Greece. Then comes the Great EU Leaders summit on Thanksgiving Day in America, where everyone is threatening to veto everyone else. A little clarity and stability would be helpful there as well. Then there is the increasing likelihood of a real clash between China and Japan next year over the Diaoyu Islands, each country has successfully backed themselves into a corner.

Up first, unsurprising news from America, until the two warring tribes declare a truce and negotiate some sort of settlement. Stay long physical precious metals in the interim.

November 18, 2012, 10:33 p.m. ET

Investment Falls Off a Cliff

U.S. Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty

U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery.

Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

Nationwide, business investment in equipment and software—a measure of economic vitality in the corporate sector—stalled in the third quarter for the first time since early 2009. Corporate investment in new buildings has declined.

At the same time, exports are slowing or falling to such critical markets as China and the euro zone as the global economy downshifts, creating another drag on firms' expansion plans.

Corporate executives say they are slowing or delaying big projects to protect profits amid easing demand and rising uncertainty. Uncertainty around the U.S. elections and federal budget policies also appear among the factors driving the investment pullback since midyear. It is unclear whether Washington will avert the so-called fiscal cliff, tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to begin Jan. 2.

Companies fear that failure to resolve the fiscal cliff will tip the economy back into recession by sapping consumer spending, damaging investor confidence and eating into corporate profits. A deal to avert the cliff could include tax-code changes, such as revamping tax breaks or rates, that hurt specific sectors.

----"The whole world is looking for stability and clarity from the United States," said David Seaton, chief executive of Fluor Corp., FLR -0.17% a large engineering and construction firm. If uncertainty isn't removed, he said, "people will sit on their war chests of cash and return it to shareholders. You'll have a retarded growth trajectory."

Should the White House and Congress strike a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, the economy could get a boost. "You might very well get a burst of pent-up demand coming at the start of next year," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy.

"Given the timing of the drop-off in business investment," he said, "you have to think it's not just a coincidence with the timing of the fiscal cliff."

Unless the business investment slowdown reverses quickly, it could weigh further on growth prospects and the stock market.

More

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324595904578123593211825394.html?mod=WSJUK_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

And so to Europe. Abandon hope all ye who enter here.

European Finance Chiefs Seek to Close Greek Gap Amid IMF

By Patrick Donahue - Nov 18, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
European finance ministers aim to stitch together Greece’s next aid payment this week as a sputtering euro-area economy and a spat with the International Monetary Fund cloud efforts to resolve the debt crisis.
The finance chiefs are due to meet in Brussels tomorrow for the second time in a week after they agreed seven days ago to keep Greece’s bailout aid flowing. In addition to a disagreement between the European Union and IMF over softening Greece’s debt target, the ministers will attempt to re-engineer the current bailout without asking taxpayers to put up more money.

---- The meeting of the ministers from the 17-member euro area underscores continuing skirmishes among EU officials confronting rising unemployment and a slowing economy as they struggle with the three-year-old debt crisis. The finance chiefs’ talks will precede a Nov. 22-23 EU summit to resolve the bloc’s budget, a project threatened by a dispute with the U.K.

With tens of thousands of Europeans staging protests last week against austerity measures and unemployment, shifting dynamics in other European countries could foreshadow renewed conflict -- an early election in Italy, a regional vote in Spain and an approaching bailout package for Cyprus.

---- Greece will probably need another aid package for the period after 2014, European Central Bank Board Member Joerg Asmussen said in an interview with German broadcaster ZDF yesterday.

Even though European leaders have pledged to do all they can to avert a Greek exit from the single currency, they’ve refused to return to parliaments for more funding. Finnish Premier Jyrki Katainen, speaking on YLE Radio Suomi at the weekend, again rejected further funds to Greece.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters last week that the current package could be re-jigged by cutting rates on loans or giving Greece extra time. In an interview on ARD television yesterday, he reiterated his rejection of a third option: write-offs of the country’s debt held by public institutions.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-18/european-finance-chiefs-seek-to-close-greek-gap-amid-imf-spat.html

18 November 2012 - 14H42  

EU in fresh trouble as budget summit faces collapse

AFP - The European Union looks set for fresh trouble this week as an extraordinary summit called to agree a long-term trillion-euro budget heads for an ugly showdown, possibly even failure.

Already weakened by three years of economic crisis, the 27-nation bloc of half a billion people faces new trauma at the two-day summit starting Thursday after weeks of talks that have exposed stark divisions between pro- and anti-austerity nations, as well as between the haves and have-nots.

"It's a lose-lose summit," said a senior EU diplomat. "Absolutely no one will leave this summit content if by chance we reach a solution."

"We don't exclude a breakdown," another diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Europe's leaders begin the talks on the EU's next seven-year budget at 1900 GMT Thursday, with Britain's premier David Cameron in the role of leading spoiler though most governments are putting national interest well above shared concerns.

"Cameron will come with a big knife to get spending cuts and to defend the British rebate," said an EU diplomat.

In the face of Britain's austerity-minded determination to secure a cut of up to 200 billion euros in the 2014-2020 budget, EU president Herman Van Rompuy, who will broker the talks, last week suggested a 75-billion-euro cut to the proposed 1.047 trillion euro ($1.3 trillion) budget.

But that made no one happy.

Spain said it would lose 20 billion euros of EU aid, Italy complained of losing 10 billion euros.

And a group of Nobel laureates flew to Brussels waving a petition signed by dozens of Nobel winners urging Van Rompuy and other EU officials not to strip funds for research and innovation.

"Fortunately, we only have these summits every seven years," Van Rompuy said Friday after coming under fire from all sides.

His plan left Britain having to pay in part for its cherished yearly rebate of 3.6 billion euros, while diminishing Sweden's rebate, and failing to address Denmark's demand to have a discount too.

----Eight of the net contributors -- Austria, Britain, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Netherlands and Sweden -- have banded together to demand spending cuts, though they are far from being on the same page on what should go or by how much.

France for instance, along with Italy, is refusing any decrease whatsoever in the budget's biggest item, the subsidies paid to farmers, big and small.

More

http://www.france24.com/en/20121118-eu-fresh-trouble-budget-summit-faces-collapse

We end for today on the Disunited States of Europe, with the fawning pro-EU, pro-euro, elitist Financial Times, talking up a European nightmare. Suppose the EU were to pass a budget without the UK? Go ahead and try, would be my response. No UK money until they come back and stick to the rules. We can use our withheld contribution to improve the economy, help the poor and reverse some of the military spending cuts. If Euroland wants to operate on a yearly basis of no UK financial contribution, most in Britain would see that as a massive plus. Only the Financial Times would go into mourning over it.

"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

November 18, 2012 9:30 pm

EU makes budget plans without UK

By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels and George Parker in London
EU officials have begun work on a plan to create a long-term budget without the UK in a move that reflects mounting frustration that Britain’s demand for a spending freeze cannot be reconciled with the rest of the bloc.

Both EU officials and national diplomats have been studying the legal and technical feasibility of devising such a budget, according to people familiar with the discussions, ahead of a two-day summit beginning on Thursday in Brussels, where the EU’s 27 heads of government will try to reach an agreement on the long-term budget.

The prospects for that meeting have darkened in recent days as several diplomats have come to the conclusion that it will be impossible to accommodate the UK’s demands, and are now predicting failure.

---- The plan may be a negotiating ploy to try to put more pressure on David Cameron, the UK prime minister, to compromise. The budget talks will resume on Monday evening when Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president, hosts a dinner of European ministers.

----The alternative budget being considered in Brussels would be done on an annual basis, which – under EU rules – requires qualified majority votes. By contrast, the traditional long-term budget, which covers seven years, requires unanimity.
It would involve passing a raft of legislation on this basis to authorise hundreds of billions of euros in EU development funds, according to diplomats. But one problem is that the revenue component of the budget requires unanimous approval of members states.

Without it, budget rebates for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden would be put at risk, as well as the system used to collect customs duties and other sources of EU funding. “It would be a technical nightmare,” one diplomat said.
More

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F.A. von Hayek

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 35.87 Moz, Eligible 106.11 Moz, Total 141.98 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

No crooks today, the Ali Baba’s are all assembling in Europe later in the week.

"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."

Antony C. Sutton

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up.

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