Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Another Summit Fails.



Baltic Dry Index. 965  +25

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

 

“Meetings are indispensable when you don't want to do anything.”

J. K. Galbraith.

More later on yet another Euroland summit failing to rescue Greece, or anything else for that matter, first this good news from the Paris based International Energy Agency. We’re all saved! American’s lifestyles are not going to consume every drop of oil on the planet, leaving the rest of the world a pre-energy age backwater. According to the bean counters in Paris, peak-oil is over forever, as America is on its fracking way to crude oil independence and about to become an exporter again of oil and gas. Yes China, you can go to the energy ball after all. With a wave of the wand from the IEA Fairy Godmother in Paris, there’s more than enough oil and gas for everyone forever. Who needs electric vehicles when there’s a happily ever after V-8 ICE future ahead for us all.

Nov. 12, 2012, 5:30 a.m. EST

U.S. set to overtake Saudi in oil output: IEA

LONDON--A shale oil boom means the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020, a radical shift that could profoundly transform not just the world's energy supplies, but also its geopolitics, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA, which advises industrialized nations on their energy policies, said the global energy map, "is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States."

The assessment is in stark contrast with last year, when it envisioned Russia and Saudi Arabia vying for the top position.

"By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer" and overtake Saudi Arabia for a time, the agency said. "The result is a continued fall in U.S. oil imports (currently at 20% of its needs) to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."

----According to Washington's Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production has increased 7% to 10.76 million barrels a day since the IEA's last outlook a year ago. The agency's conclusions are partly backed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last week acknowledged for the first time that shale oil would significantly diminish its share of the U.S. market.

The group said the U.S. would import less than 2 million barrels a day in 2035, almost three-quarters less than it does today. That's not to say OPEC's role will be marginalized globally. The group's share of global production will increase from 42% today to 50% in 2035, with much of it going to Asia, according to the IEA.
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Now back to yet another EU failure to rescue Greece. The new non-fix hurriedly botched together to prevent a Greek default this Friday, Greece will sell some treasury bills today to cover Friday’s bond redemption, with the Greek banks probably taking the new T-bills round to the ECB for more Euros before Friday. Much to the very public disgust of the IMF, Greece is also to be given an extra two years to meet the target it agreed to meet in 2020. Not that anyone expects Greece to meet the new target date of 2022. By extending the date, Greece or someone, will have to come up with an extra nearly 33 billion euros. Since Greece hasn’t got 33 euros, it will be interesting to see who gets the 33 billion extra bill.

Euro slips to 2-month low, Greece deal still up in the air

TOKYO | Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:20am EST
(Reuters) - The euro dipped to a two-month low against the dollar on Tuesday after the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund failed to agree on a long-term plan to reduce Greece's debt, preventing disbursement of immediate aid to Athens.

The currency was also bruised by the broader risk averse mood as Chinese shares tumbled following state media reports that government housing market curbs will remain in place, sapping optimism that the world's second-largest economy was regaining traction.

While market players expect Greece to manage to get by this week without the aid money it was counting on, uncertainty over its short-term financing and long-term debt reduction plan was enough to put off investors.

"Few people would think that the euro zone will desert Greece. Still, the market will be frustrated by lack of a clear picture. I expect the euro to keep falling gradually," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

With the aid funds from international lenders blocked, Greece plans to sell treasury bills on Tuesday to refinance a 5 billion issue maturing on Friday.

But some market players are not sure if they can take a successful auction for granted.

----Euro zone finance ministers agreed to grant Athens two more years to reach its budget goal but the IMF and the euro zone are at loggerheads over who should shoulder the cost -- around 33 billion euro -- as well as on a longer-term target date to shrink the country's debt pile.

"If you extend the deadline by two years, you need more money, and countries like Germany and Finland will need to go to the parliament. The market will be concerned if all of that goes so smoothly," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Monday another Eurogroup meeting would take place on November 20, before the EU summit from Nov 22, though officials said more negotiations could be required the week after that to nail down a new deal.
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IMF chief and EU clash over Greek debt

A conflict between the International Monetary Fund and European Union erupted into the open on Monday night after Christine Lagarde publicly clashed with eurozone finance ministers over a critical target for reducing Greek debt levels.

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, announced Greece would be given an extra two years to meet its debt reduction target of 120pc of GDP by 2022 instead of 2020.

“The target, as far as the time-frame is concerned, has been postponed to 2022,” he said.

A visibly angered Mrs Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, shook her head and rolled her eyes at the announcement that breaches the Washington-based fund’s condition that Greek debt must become sustainable by 2020.

“We clearly have different views,” she said. “In our view the appropriate target is 120pc by 2020. It is critical that the Greek debt be sustainable."

The 2020 “debt sustainability” target was agreed as the condition for the IMF’s involvement in the second Greek bail-out agreed in March this year and an EU decision to breach it could jeopardise the whole international package.

 

“People who enjoy meetings should not be in charge of anything.”

Angela Merkel sticks to austerity script in Portugal as revolt builds

German Chancellor Angela Merkel braved hostile crowds in Portugal on Monday to show unflinching support for the country’s austerity ordeal and plead for patience as social cohesion frays.

The flying visit came as trade unions led a protest march through Lisbon “in defence of national sovereignty” and the Left Bloc in parliament said its top priority is to “bring down the government” and forge a salvation front.

Swooping into Lisbon amid tight security, Mrs Merkel praised the “courageous actions” of free-market premier Pedro Passos Coelho and vowed do to “everything possible” to help the country through hard times. 

Yet she also insisted that there would be no renegotiation of the country’s €78bn (£62.5bn) EU-IMF Troika package or softer terms to alleviate the slump, saying austerity is the “only way forward”.

The tough love message comes as unemployment reaches 15.7pc, with 35pc among the young, and dole duration is slashed from nine months to four under Troika reforms.

Mr Passos Coelho has been able to count on a tacit support from opposition socialists but consensus broke down two months ago in a bitter clash over payroll levies.

Socialist leader António José Seguro said on Monday that Portugal is crumbling under the weight of debt service costs and “cannot endure any further austerity”. The Troika has warned of mounting political risk and “austerity fatigue”.

Moody's cuts growth forecast for advanced G20 countries

Leading global economies will struggle with weak growth until 2014 because of strains in Europe and the US, credit agency Moody’s said, as it cut its growth forecasts for next year.

A “deceleration in world trade” will mean that emerging nations will be swept up by the weakness, Moody’s said yesterday , adding that a deep recession in the eurozone, the US fiscal cliff, oil supply threats and a hard landing in large developing economies such as China posed downside risks.

It cut growth for the G20’s advanced economies, such as the UK and the US, from 2.1pc to 1.6pc for 2013. For the G20 as a whole, growth will be 3pc in 2013.

Japan Opposition Head Abe Backs Dalai Lama Amid China Dispute

By Takashi Hirokawa and Isabel Reynolds - Nov 13, 2012 3:34 AM GMT
The leader of Japan’s main opposition party met with the Dalai Lama today and called for democracy in Tibet, a demand that may further damage China ties already harmed by a territorial dispute.
“I swear I will do everything in my power to change the situation in Tibet, where human rights are being suppressed,” Liberal Democratic Party leader Shinzo Abe said before a speech by the Dalai Lama in Tokyo attended by more than 100 lawmakers. “Tibet seeks freedom and democracy and we agree on those values.”

Polls show Abe may become Japan’s next leader in an election Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda may call before the end of the year. Abe, who was prime minister from 2006-2007, advocates building on islands at the heart of a dispute with China that has damaged the $340 billion trade relationship between’s Asia’s two biggest economies.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/japan-opposition-head-abe-backs-dalai-lama-amid-china-dispute.html

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 36.52 Moz, Eligible 106.22 Moz, Total 142.74 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over. 

With UK readers consumed with the growing scandal of how the BBC tried to deliberately smear Lady, Thatcher, Lord McAlpine and the Tory Party with being paedophiles, today thanks to the Wall Street Journal, we get an insight into a growing tawdry scandal on the other side of the Atlantic. From this side of the Atlantic it’s hard to see what all of the fuss is about, everyone involved was a consenting adult, even if some dubious emails were the end result. Apparently in the Land of the Free, J. Edgar’s old outfit now police’s unwise emails. I wonder what their position is on twits twittering? It will be interesting to see just how far both scandals grow.

You find out who your real friends are when you're involved in a scandal.

Elizabeth Taylor.

Updated November 13, 2012, 2:04 a.m. ET

FBI Agent in Petraeus Case Under Scrutiny

WASHINGTON—A federal agent who launched the investigation that ultimately led to the resignation of Central Intelligence Agency chief David Petraeus was barred from taking part in the case over the summer due to superiors' concerns that he was personally involved in the case, according to officials familiar with the probe.

After being blocked from the case, the agent continued to press the matter, relaying his concerns to a member of Congress, the officials said.

New details about how the Federal Bureau of Investigation handled the case suggest that even as the bureau delved into Mr. Petraeus's personal life, the agency had to address conduct by its own agent—who allegedly sent shirtless photos of himself to a woman involved in the case prior to the investigation.

FBI officials declined to identify the agent, so he couldn't be reached to give his side of the story. The agent is now under investigation by the Office of Professional Responsibility, the internal-affairs arm of the FBI, according to two officials familiar with the matter.

The revelations address how the investigation first began and ultimately led to Mr. Petraeus's downfall as director of the CIA. The new developments also raise questions about the role played by the FBI and the adequacy of notification to administration and congressional leaders about the scandal.

The FBI agent who started the case was a friend of Jill Kelley, the Tampa woman who received harassing, anonymous emails that led to the probe, according to officials.
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up.

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