Baltic Dry Index. 965 +25
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“Meetings are indispensable when you don't want to do anything.”
J. K. Galbraith.
More later on yet another Euroland summit failing
to rescue Greece, or anything else for that matter, first this good news from
the Paris based International Energy Agency. We’re all saved! American’s
lifestyles are not going to consume every drop of oil on the planet, leaving
the rest of the world a pre-energy age backwater. According to the bean
counters in Paris, peak-oil is over forever, as America is on its fracking way to
crude oil independence and about to become an exporter again of oil and gas.
Yes China, you can go to the energy ball after all. With a wave of the wand
from the IEA Fairy Godmother in Paris, there’s more than enough oil and gas for
everyone forever. Who needs electric vehicles when there’s a happily ever after
V-8 ICE future ahead for us all.
Nov. 12,
2012, 5:30 a.m. EST
U.S. set to overtake Saudi in oil output: IEA
LONDON--A
shale oil boom means the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest
oil producer by 2020, a radical shift that could profoundly transform not just
the world's energy supplies, but also its geopolitics, the International Energy
Agency said Monday.
In its
closely watched annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA, which advises
industrialized nations on their energy policies, said the global energy map,
"is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the
United States."
The
assessment is in stark contrast with last year, when it envisioned Russia and
Saudi Arabia vying for the top position.
"By
around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil
producer" and overtake Saudi Arabia for a time, the agency said. "The
result is a continued fall in U.S. oil imports (currently at 20% of its needs)
to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."
----According
to Washington's Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production has
increased 7% to 10.76 million barrels a day since the IEA's last outlook a year
ago. The agency's conclusions are partly backed by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries, which last week acknowledged for the first time that shale
oil would significantly diminish its share of the U.S. market.
The group said the U.S. would import less than 2 million
barrels a day in 2035, almost three-quarters less than it does today. That's
not to say OPEC's role will be marginalized globally. The group's share of
global production will increase from 42% today to 50% in 2035, with much of it
going to Asia, according to the IEA.
More
Now back to yet another EU failure to rescue
Greece. The new non-fix hurriedly botched together to prevent a Greek default
this Friday, Greece will sell some treasury bills today to cover Friday’s bond
redemption, with the Greek banks probably taking the new T-bills round to the
ECB for more Euros before Friday. Much to the very public disgust of the IMF,
Greece is also to be given an extra two years to meet the target it agreed to
meet in 2020. Not that anyone expects Greece to meet the new target date of
2022. By extending the date, Greece or someone, will have to come up with an
extra nearly 33 billion euros. Since Greece hasn’t got 33 euros, it will be
interesting to see who gets the 33 billion extra bill.
Euro slips to 2-month low, Greece deal still up in the air
TOKYO |(Reuters) - The euro dipped to a two-month low against the dollar on Tuesday after the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund failed to agree on a long-term plan to reduce Greece's debt, preventing disbursement of immediate aid to Athens.
The currency was also bruised by the broader risk averse mood as Chinese shares tumbled following state media reports that government housing market curbs will remain in place, sapping optimism that the world's second-largest economy was regaining traction.
While market players expect Greece to manage to get by this week without the aid money it was counting on, uncertainty over its short-term financing and long-term debt reduction plan was enough to put off investors.
"Few people would think that the euro zone will desert Greece. Still, the market will be frustrated by lack of a clear picture. I expect the euro to keep falling gradually," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
With the aid funds from international lenders blocked, Greece plans to sell treasury bills on Tuesday to refinance a 5 billion issue maturing on Friday.
But some market players are not sure if they can take a successful auction for granted.
----Euro zone finance ministers agreed to grant Athens two more years to reach its budget goal but the IMF and the euro zone are at loggerheads over who should shoulder the cost -- around 33 billion euro -- as well as on a longer-term target date to shrink the country's debt pile.
"If you extend the deadline by two years, you need more money, and countries like Germany and Finland will need to go to the parliament. The market will be concerned if all of that goes so smoothly," said a trader at a Japanese bank.
Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Monday another Eurogroup meeting would take place on November 20, before the EU summit from Nov 22, though officials said more negotiations could be required the week after that to nail down a new deal.
More
IMF chief and EU clash over Greek debt
A conflict between the International Monetary Fund and European Union erupted into the open on Monday night after Christine Lagarde publicly clashed with eurozone finance ministers over a critical target for reducing Greek debt levels.
Jean-Claude
Juncker, president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, announced Greece
would be given an extra two years to meet its debt reduction target of 120pc of
GDP by 2022 instead of 2020.
“The
target, as far as the time-frame is concerned, has been postponed to 2022,” he
said.
A visibly
angered Mrs Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, shook her head and
rolled her eyes at the announcement that breaches the Washington-based fund’s
condition that Greek debt must become sustainable by 2020.
“We
clearly have different views,” she said. “In our view the appropriate target is
120pc by 2020. It is critical that the Greek debt be sustainable."
The 2020
“debt sustainability” target was agreed as the condition for the IMF’s
involvement in the second Greek bail-out
agreed in March this year and an EU decision to breach it could
jeopardise the whole international package.
“People who enjoy meetings should not be in charge of anything.”
Angela Merkel sticks to austerity script in Portugal as revolt builds
German Chancellor Angela Merkel braved hostile crowds in Portugal on Monday to show unflinching support for the country’s austerity ordeal and plead for patience as social cohesion frays.
The
flying visit came as trade unions led a protest march through Lisbon “in
defence of national sovereignty” and the Left Bloc in parliament said its top
priority is to “bring down the government” and forge a salvation front.
Swooping
into Lisbon amid tight security, Mrs Merkel praised the “courageous actions” of
free-market premier Pedro Passos Coelho and vowed do to “everything possible”
to help the country through hard times.
Yet she also insisted that there would
be no renegotiation of the country’s €78bn (£62.5bn) EU-IMF Troika package or
softer terms to alleviate the slump, saying austerity is the “only way
forward”.
The tough
love message comes as unemployment reaches 15.7pc, with 35pc among the young,
and dole duration is slashed from nine months to four under Troika reforms.
Mr Passos
Coelho has been able to count on a tacit support from opposition socialists but
consensus broke down two months ago in a bitter clash over payroll levies.
Socialist
leader António José Seguro said on Monday that Portugal is crumbling under the
weight of debt service costs and “cannot endure any further austerity”. The
Troika has warned of mounting political risk and “austerity fatigue”.
Moody's cuts growth forecast for advanced G20 countries
Leading global economies will struggle with weak growth until 2014 because of strains in Europe and the US, credit agency Moody’s said, as it cut its growth forecasts for next year.
A
“deceleration in world trade” will mean that emerging nations will be swept up
by the weakness, Moody’s said yesterday , adding that a deep recession in the
eurozone, the US fiscal cliff, oil supply threats and a hard landing in large
developing economies such as China posed downside risks.
It cut
growth for the G20’s advanced economies, such as the UK and the US, from 2.1pc
to 1.6pc for 2013. For the G20 as a whole, growth will be 3pc in 2013.
Japan Opposition Head Abe Backs Dalai Lama Amid China Dispute
By Takashi Hirokawa and
Isabel Reynolds - Nov 13, 2012 3:34 AM GMT
The leader of Japan’s main opposition party met
with the Dalai Lama today and called for democracy in Tibet, a
demand that may further damage China ties already harmed by a territorial
dispute. “I swear I will do everything in my power to change the situation in Tibet, where human rights are being suppressed,” Liberal Democratic Party leader Shinzo Abe said before a speech by the Dalai Lama in Tokyo attended by more than 100 lawmakers. “Tibet seeks freedom and democracy and we agree on those values.”
Polls show Abe may become Japan’s next leader in an election Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda may call before the end of the year. Abe, who was prime minister from 2006-2007, advocates building on islands at the heart of a dispute with China that has damaged the $340 billion trade relationship between’s Asia’s two biggest economies.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/japan-opposition-head-abe-backs-dalai-lama-amid-china-dispute.html
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 36.52
Moz, Eligible 106.22 Moz, Total 142.74 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
With UK
readers consumed with the growing scandal of how the BBC tried to deliberately smear
Lady, Thatcher, Lord McAlpine and the Tory Party with being paedophiles, today
thanks to the Wall Street Journal, we get an insight into a growing tawdry scandal
on the other side of the Atlantic. From this side of the Atlantic it’s hard to
see what all of the fuss is about, everyone involved was a consenting adult,
even if some dubious emails were the end result. Apparently in the Land of the
Free, J. Edgar’s old outfit now police’s unwise emails. I wonder what their
position is on twits twittering? It will be interesting to see just how far
both scandals grow.
You find out who your real friends are when you're involved in a
scandal.
Elizabeth Taylor.
Updated November 13, 2012, 2:04 a.m. ET
FBI Agent in Petraeus Case Under Scrutiny
WASHINGTON—A
federal agent who launched the investigation that ultimately led to the
resignation of Central Intelligence Agency chief David Petraeus was barred from
taking part in the case over the summer due to superiors' concerns that he was
personally involved in the case, according to officials familiar with the
probe.
After being blocked from the case, the agent
continued to press the matter, relaying his concerns to a member of Congress,
the officials said.
New details about how the Federal Bureau of
Investigation handled the case suggest that even as the bureau delved into Mr.
Petraeus's personal life, the agency had to address conduct by its own
agent—who allegedly sent shirtless photos of himself to a woman involved in the
case prior to the investigation.
FBI
officials declined to identify the agent, so he couldn't be reached to give his
side of the story. The agent is now under investigation by the Office of
Professional Responsibility, the internal-affairs arm of the FBI, according to
two officials familiar with the matter.
The revelations address how the investigation first
began and ultimately led to Mr. Petraeus's downfall as director of the CIA. The
new developments also raise questions about the role played by the FBI and the
adequacy of notification to administration and congressional leaders about the
scandal.
The FBI agent who started the case was a friend of
Jill Kelley, the Tampa woman who received harassing, anonymous emails that led
to the probe, according to officials.
More
The monthly
Coppock Indicators finished October:
DJIA: +92 Up. NASDAQ: +99 Up. SP500: +102 Up.
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