Baltic Dry Index. 3185 -29 Brent Crude 68.28
Spot Gold 1831
Freedom is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.
George Orwell. [Except, of course, on Facebook.]
Weak jobs report spurs new arguments over big fed spending
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden insists an unexpected slowdown in companies’ hiring is clear new proof the U.S. needs the multitrillion-dollar federal boost he’s pushing. But his sales effort is challenged by critics who say Friday’s jobless figures show his earlier aid legislation — successfully rushed through Congress — is actually doing more harm than good.
Biden’s promised economic comeback hardly stalled on Friday. But it seemed to sputter a bit with a report that found merely modest April job gains of 266,000 and complicated his new $4 trillion push for infrastructure, education and children.
The employment report failed to show that the U.S. economy was accelerating so much as stutter-stepping along as the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1%. Economists had projected roughly one million added jobs last month, and the modest hiring indicated that the earlier $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package has provided an uneven boost so far.
The figures present Biden with a fresh challenge at a critical moment in his presidency. He is betting that an open embrace of massive government spending will help resolve the nation’s public health and financial turmoil — and lift the political prospects for Democrats heading into next year’s elections. But the disappointing jobs numbers could also embolden his critics and stiffen the Republican resistance to the infrastructure package Biden is trying to push through Congress.
Addressing the report, Biden sought to ease concerns.
“We knew this wouldn’t be a sprint—it’d be a marathon,” he said. The pandemic relief package “was designed to help us over the course of a year, not 60 days. A year. We never thought that after the first 50 or 60 days everything would be fine. Today, there’s more evidence our economy is moving in the right direction. But it’s clear we have a long way to go.”
Biden’s opponents say the legislation actually worsened problems in at least one way, with expanded unemployment benefits that gave the jobless a reason to stay at home instead of seeking work.
---- The fate of the president’s agenda may depend on how the public processes and understands the April jobs report in the coming weeks, said Jon Lieber, a managing director at the Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory and consulting firm.
“Are the Republicans able to seize on this as, ‘This is what happens when the government gets involved in the economy and screws things up?’ Or, does the public see this as the need for more government support?” Lieber said. “That’s the argument for the next month.”
---- One clear takeaway across partisan lines was a need for caution in interpretation. A single monthly report can be volatile. The three-month average of job gains is still a healthy 524,000.
Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, noted that many businesses have said they cannot find workers to hire despite increases in hourly pay. Strain said he plans to monitor upcoming reports to see if that pattern holds in what could be a troubling sign for Biden’s vision of how to generate growth through government spending.
“If we continue to hear a growing chorus of businesses complaining about worker shortages and if wages continue to rise, then it will be tempting to conclude that a lot of the 8 million jobs we are currently missing aren’t coming back,” Strain said.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents businesses, put the blame squarely on the relatively generous unemployment benefits that Biden extended as part of his relief package. The group said the checks prevent people from accepting jobs.
“One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit,” said Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the Chamber. “Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working.”
Treasury says $21B from rescue plan will go to help struggling renters
May 7, 2021 / 2:47 PM
May 7 (UPI) -- The Biden administration said Friday it has funneled $21.6 billion from the American Rescue Plan to help with rental assistance for Americans impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Treasury Department said the funds will secure basic housing for millions by helping prevent evictions.
For the first time, rental assistance will be offered directly to renters if landlords don't accept direct payments.
The department said it also will expedite money to renters who are most in need of assistance, cutting down the wait time to five days.
"This infusion of additional support will benefit both renters and landlords and make sure states and localities that have moved quickly to address housing affordability challenges wrought by the public health emergency and its negative economic impacts in their areas will continue to have the resources they need to serve their communities," the Treasury Department said in a statement.
Friday's announcement comes two days after a federal judge ruled that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention exceeded its authority last year when it ordered a nationwide moratorium on evictions to help renters remain in their homes during the pandemic.
The issue has been raised in several federal courts and other judges have also ruled against the CDC eviction ban, but the rulings so far have applied only to the parties in the case.
Nearly half of the U.S. corn crop is in the ground, USDA reports
Soybean planting in Iowa and Illinois races forward.
By Mike McGinnis 5/3/2021
CORN
As of Sunday, Illinois farmers seeded 54% of this year's corn crop vs. a 49% five-year average. Iowa farmers have put 69% of their corn in the ground vs. its 45% five-year average. So far, Nebraska has planted 42% of its corn vs. a 36% five-year average. North Carolina has 79% of its corn planted.
Of the total U.S. corn planted, 8% of it has emerged, below the 9% five-year average. in its report, the USDA reported that 14% of the corn in Illinois has emerged vs. a 13% five-year average. In Iowa and Nebraska, 2% of the corn in both states has emerged.
SOYBEANS
As of Sunday, the USDA rated the nation's soybean crop as 24% planted vs. an 11% five-year average. Illinois farmers have 41% of their soybeans planted vs. a 14% five-year average. Indiana farmers have seeded 24% of their soybeans vs. a 11% five-year average. Nebraska's crop is 20% complete vs. a 12% five-year average.
WHEAT
In its report Monday, the USDA rated the U.S. spring crop as 49% planted vs. a 32% five-year average. The U.S. winter wheat crop is rated as 48% good/excellent, vs. 49% a week ago.
More
https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/nearly-half-of-the-us-corn-crop-is-in-the-ground-usda-reports
April's lowest average minimum temperatures since 1922
Author: Press Office 15:24 (UTC+1) on Fri 30 Apr 2021
April 2021 had the lowest average minimum temperatures for April in the UK since 1922, as air frost and clear conditions combined for a frost-laden, chilly month, despite long hours of sunshine.
UPDATE: This release has now been updated to reflect the full provisional figures for the month of April.
Provisional figures from the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre indicate that April had the third lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month since records began in 1884, while Wales, Scotland and England all reported their figures in their top five lowest ever recorded. Average daily maximum temperatures were also below normal, but not by as much as the minimum temperatures.
----It had already been reported that April had seen its highest level of air frost in 60 years, with an average of 14 days of air frost topping the previous record figure of 11 days in 1970 (records for air frost go back to 1960). This number of air frosts is more typical for December, January or February, whereas the average number of air frosts in April is five days. For gardeners and growers there were also a record high number of ground frosts with 22 days this month compared to an average of 12 days.
----April 2021 will be remembered as being a dry month for many places, as a small showery spell in the last week of the month did little to offset the long dry spells for many, and it will be one of the driest Aprils on record. All of the UK nations reported rainfall in their lowest ten ever recored, with the 20.1mm across the UK putting it at the fourth driest on record.
There are some ideas so wrong that only a very intelligent person could believe in them.
George Orwell.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own
Copper jumps to record as growth bets supercharge commodities
Bloomberg May 07, 2021 17:45 pm
May 7): Copper soared to an all-time high as optimism about a global rebound from the pandemic spurs a surge across commodities markets.
The metal — an economic bellwether — is front and centre in a rally that’s driven raw materials from lumber to iron ore to multi-year highs or records. Stimulus measures and vaccine rollouts are fueling prospects for a resurgence in demand that’s set to strain supply, while copper’s crucial role in the green-energy transition is set to underpin longer-term gains.
“It’s hard to foresee copper prices turning around amid the current bullish atmosphere,” said Ji Xianfei, an analyst with Guotai Junan Futures Co. Macro easing, ample liquidity and a weaker dollar continue to drive the rally, while the broader commodities surge is being fueled by bets on inflation, Ji said.
Big banks to trader Trafigura Group have rolled out a list of lofty price targets, with the latter predicting copper will hit US$15,000 a ton in the coming decade as decarbonization drives more consumption. At the same time, the pandemic has disrupted trade flows in the short-term and a lack of mine investment is set to see the market short of the supply needed to meet demand.
Copper rose as much as 1.5% to US$10,246.50 on the London Metal Exchange before trading at US$10,226.50 by 2:36pm in Hong Kong. Prices are up more than 30% this year and have more than doubled from lows in March of last year.
It’s not just copper. Steel prices across Asia and North America are booming, iron ore is at a record above US$200 a ton as miners struggle to keep up with the frenzied pace of consumption, and tin topped US$30,000 for the first time in a decade. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index jumped to its highest since 2011 as growth bets boost demand, while poor weather hurts crop prospects and transportation bottlenecks crimp supplies.
More
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/copper-jumps-record-growth-bets-supercharge-commodities
Top Wind Turbine Maker Plans to Raise Prices
Will MathisMay 5, 2021, 2:40 AM EDT
One of the world’s biggest wind turbine makers Vestas Wind Systems A/S will hike its prices as the costs of steel and transportation increase amid a global commodities boom that’s contributing to a rising risk of inflation.
It’s an early sign that the surge in commodities prices and disruptions in supply chains could interrupt a trend of perpetually falling costs for green energy.
Benchmark prices for steel in China, the world’s top producer, have gained 25% this year, pushing up the cost of one of the main materials in wind turbines. At the same time, Vestas has seen freight rates soar, increasing the cost of transporting its products to its customers around the world.
“There’s no way we will and can absorb that,” Vestas Chief Executive Officer Henrik Andersen said Wednesday in an interview. “Projects that come in now will see a reflection that it has become more expensive to get the turbines.”
More
“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
George Orwell.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This weekend, better news from Covid-19 devastated India. According to the findings of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences study, [AIIMS,] Ivermectin seems to work with an 83 percent efficiency rate in protecting Indian health workers from contracting Sars-CoV-2 and developing Covid-19.
So why are we not using it in the UK, EU and USA? Cui bono?
Prophylactic role of ivermectin in SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers
Abstract.
Background Healthcare workers (HCWs) are vulnerable to getting infected withSARS-CoV-2. Preventing HCWs from getting infected is a priority to maintain healthcare services. The therapeutic and preventive role of ivermectin in COVID-19 is being investigated. Based on promising results of in vitro studies of oral ivermectin, this study was conducted with the aim to demonstrate the prophylactic role of oral ivermectin in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infectionamong HCWs at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Bhubaneswar.
---- Results Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two-doses and single-dose, respectively. Participants who took ivermectin prophylaxis had a lower risk of getting symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection(6% vs 15%). HCWs who had taken two-doses of oral ivermectin have a significantly lower risk of contracting COVID-19 disease during the following month (ARR 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23). Females had a lower risk of contracting COVID-19 than males (ARR 0.70 95% CI, 0.52-0.93). The absolute risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.7%. Only 1.8% of the participants reported adverse events, which were mild and self-limiting.
Conclusion and relevance Two-doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among HCWs reduces the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83% in the following month. Safe, effective, and low-cost chemoprophylaxis have relevance in the containment of pandemic alongside vaccine.
More
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-208785/v1
All India Institute Of Medical Sciences, New Delhi
Breaking: EU looking into reports of rare nerve disorder after Astrazeneca vaccine
Friday 7 May 2021 1:35 pm
The EU’s medicines regulator is investigating reports of a rare nerve-degenerating disorder in people who have received Astrazeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine, it announced this afternoon.
The watchdog has requested more detailed data on the cases from the company.
As part of a regular review of safety reports for the vaccine, Vaxzevria, the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) safety committee is analysing data provided on cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome in people who have had the Astrazeneca jab.
The EMA is also looking into reports of heart inflammation with Pfizer-Biontech’s vaccine, called Comirnaty, and Moderna’s shot, Reuters reported.
Both the vaccines use new mRNA technology to build immunity against the coronavirus.
It comes after the EMA last month said it had found a “possible link” between the Astrazeneca vaccine and rare blood clots, but ruled that the benefits of receiving the vaccine outweighed potential risks.
Unlike the UK’s medicines regulator, the EMA refused to prohibit use of the Astrazeneca jab among younger demographics.
In a surprise extension of Britain’s guidance on the drug, the government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) this morning recommended that all under-40s in the UK seek an alternative to the Astrazeneca vaccine.
Professor Wei Shen Lim, member of the JCVI’s Covid subcommittee, said: “Safety remains our number one priority.
“As Covid-19 rates continue to come under control, we are advising that adults aged 18- 39 years with no underlying health conditions are offered an alternative to the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine, if available, and if it does not cause delays in having the vaccine.”
Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Stabilization of the borafluorene anion with carbenes
Date: May 5, 2021
Source: Wiley
Summary: The incorporation of boron into polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon systems leads to interesting chromophoric and fluorescing materials for optoelectronics, including organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDS) and field-effect transistors, as well as polymer-based sensors. A research team has now introduced a new anionic organoborane compound. Synthesis of the borafluorene succeeded through the use of carbenes.
Borafluorene is a particularly interesting boron-containing building block. It is a system of three carbon rings joined at the edges: two six-membered and one central five-membered ring, whose free tip is the boron atom. While neutral, radical, and cationic (positively charged) borafluorene compounds are quite easy to produce, there have been few examples of anionic (negatively charged) borafluorene compounds to date. Better understanding of their chemistry is important for advances in redox-dependent applications and could lead to new materials with unique bonding or optical properties. However, the relatively high reactivity of borafluorene anions makes their synthesis challenging. A team led by Robert J. Gilliard, Jr. at the University of Virginia Charlottesville, USA) and David J. D. Wilson at Latrobe University (Melbourne, Australia) has now succeeded in the isolation and structural characterization of these elusive anions.
The starting point for their new synthesis is 9-bromo-9-borafluorene, which has a bromine atom attached to its boron atom. This is treated with a very strong reducing agent (potassium graphite, sodium naphthalenide, or lithium naphthalenide) in the presence of special carbenes (organic compounds with a divalent carbon atom and a free electron pair). The anionic borafluorenes formed in the reduction are stabilized by the carbenes.
As the team demonstrated, the carbene-borafluorene anions can also be used as chemical building blocks. This makes it possible to produce new compounds that are not otherwise accessible with previously known starting materials. For example, compounds with bonds between boron and gold, selenium, or germanium were generated. Reaction with a diketone led to a ring closure and bonding of the boron atom to both ketone oxygens, forming what is known as a spirocyclic boron compound.
This weekend’s musical diversion. Vivaldi again, cheating, by blending earlier pieces and themes with new ideas. He “borrowed” the second movement from his Stabat Mater, but don’t tell anyone. Approx. 12 minutes. For the curious, find out how many themes he “borrowed” from his earlier composing.
Concerto per la Solennità di San Lorenzo Del Vivaldi / RV 556 in C major
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdQQlyoHx6c
This weekend’s science masterclass, what’s the matter? Turning matter into fields, science into farming? Approx. 12 minutes.
Dark Matter: The Situation has Changed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_qJptwikRc
This weekend’s maths masterclass. The battle of the maths professors, plus more on last week’s maths masterclass.
Approx. 40 minutes. Fair warning, for maths geniuses only.
Numberphile v. Math: the truth about 1+2+3+...=-1/12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuIIjLr6vUA&t=1308s
“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.”
George Orwell.
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