An Unpromising Start! Duck Impressions.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2939 -138  Brent Crude 68.73

Spot Gold 1852

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 17/05/21 World 163,721,630

Deaths 3,393,409

Today is Monday, May 17, the 137th day of 2021. There are 228 days left in the year.

On this date: In 1792, the New York Stock Exchange had its beginnings as a group of brokers met under a tree on Wall Street and signed the Buttonwood Agreement.

While it may not quite be “come back Donald all is forgiven,” President Biden’s honeymoon was over in just 4 months. 

Already parts of the US media are comparing his presidency to that of the unfortunate and unlucky Carter presidency.  Probably unfairly this early on, but his proposed Magic Money Tree solutions to just about everything, will, if put into effect, end in an outcome similar or worse to President Carter’s outcome.  The debt mountain and economic inequality are orders of magnitude worse.

While the US media focuses on President Biden’s domestic agenda’s failings, internationally his feebleness and complete irrelevance to either side in the current tragedy in the Middle East, is increasingly being taken for US weakness, similar to what happened under President Carter.

Add in great uncertainty over the summer recovery, the potential for a summer of violence, the continuing supply chain disruption and the potential food chain supply disruption from drought in a large part of the USA and South America, plus rising global inflation, and the continuing Covid-19 pandemic, and a very iffy summer for the G-7 lies directly ahead.

What else could possibly go wrong so early on President Biden’s shaky watch?

Job fears, price spikes mean heartburn for Biden White House as economy revs up

May 16, 2021  12:06 PM  By Howard Schneider, Jarrett Renshaw

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - High unemployment. Rising prices. Gas lines.

They’re a bad memory for Americans old enough to remember the 1970s - but they’re also likely causing a few sleepless nights in the White House, as the United States’ economic recovery from the unprecedented coronavirus recession hits some bumps.

The jolts are dampening consumer confidence, ramping up inflation fears, and helping Republicans build their case against President Joe Biden and his ambitious plans to revamp the U.S. economy with trillions in new spending.

As the 1970s show, high joblessness and rising prices the United States saw in April can be a potent political force.

Republicans crafted a “misery index” out of the two factors to attack then-president Jimmy Carter. After hitting 75% approval ratings early in his presidency, the Democrat was trounced in a 1980 landslide.

Support for Biden remains strong and U.S. equity markets remain near record highs.

The White House says there’s bound to be surprises as the United States emerges from an unprecedented pandemic.

“We must keep in mind that an economy will not heal instantaneously,” Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers told reporters Friday. “It takes several weeks for people to get full immunity from vaccinations, and even more time for those left jobless from the pandemic to find and start a suitable job.”

---- The Federal Reserve also is betting heavily inflation will cool on its own, even as hiring picks up steam over the summer, Americans start to travel again, and the Fed keeps its massive crisis levels of support intact here.

The White House wouldn’t offer a timeline for when the economy will smooth out. But it doesn’t expect a repeat of April’s weak jobs report, and recent data show applicants for unemployment benefits fell to a 14-month low.

---- Republicans, divided by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, have seized the moment to knock the foundation of Biden’s economic plans - raising taxes on the wealthy and companies.

“You won’t find any Republicans who are gonna go raise taxes. I think that’s the worst thing you can do in this economy,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters outside the White House, citing inflation fears and gas prices.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the powerful corporate lobby group, is pushing for repeal of special unemployment payments that were a cornerstone of Biden’s campaign, and over a dozen state governors have decided to roll them back early.

With 7.5 million more people either unemployed or out of the job market altogether compared to before the pandemic, even a month or two more of weaker-than-expected job growth and rising prices would up the pressure on Biden and the Fed.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-biden/job-fears-price-spikes-mean-heartburn-for-biden-white-house-as-economy-revs-up-idUSKCN2CX07J

Asia shares left listless by mixed China data

May 17, 2021  1:45 AM  By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets turned mixed on Monday as data on Chinese retail sales missed expectations though industrial output stayed solid, while more evidence of global inflation pressures helped gold to a three-month peak.

Chinese retail sales rose 17.7% in April on a year ago, short of forecasts for a jump of 24.8%, while industrial output matched expectations with a rise of 9.8%.

The spread of the coronavirus was also a hindrance with Singapore to shut most schools from Wednesday after reporting the highest number of local infections in months.

Taiwan’s government on Monday had to reassure investors it would stabilise stock and foreign exchange markets if needed amid a spike in COVID-19 cases. Stocks there were still down 1.1%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eked out a rise of 0.2%, nudging further away from a four-month trough hit last week.

Chinese blue chips proved resilient with a gain of 1.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.7%, having also touched its lowest since early January last week. Data suggested inflation was a global phenomenon with Japan’s wholesale prices jumping 3.6% in April from a year earlier as rising energy and commodities costs ate into corporate margins.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.1%, following Friday’s rally.

The U.S. data calendar is light this week, putting the focus on minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for any clue when officials there might start to talk about tapering.

So far, most Fed members have been doggedly dovish on policy, arguing a spike in inflation was transitory, though there was a risk it could get baked into expectations.

The University of Michigan consumer survey last week showed the highest expected year-ahead inflation rate as well as the highest long-term inflation rate in the past decade.

BofA’s U.S. economist Michelle Meyer sees outsized price pressures from shortages of goods and rebounds in travel.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/asia-shares-left-listless-by-mixed-china-data-idUSKCN2CY01L

Next, as much of the UK gets to reopen today, not everyone is coming back.

Covid: A tenth of Britain's restaurants lost during pandemic

By Lucy Hooker  Business reporter, BBC News 16 May 2021.

Monday sees another milestone in the reopening of the economy: people in most of the UK will be able to go to a bar or restaurant and eat indoors.

But some favourite haunts will no longer be there: over the last year, thousands of establishments have closed, latest surveys indicate.

Across Britain, there are 9.7% fewer restaurants to choose from, compared with before the pandemic.

And mid-market "casual dining" venues have fallen by 19.4%.

The data in the latest Market Recovery Monitor from CGA and AlixPartners suggests that while many pubs and bars have also struggled to survive the pandemic, it is restaurants that have fared worst.

That includes places such as Oskar Ali's in Newport in Wales. Oskar and his wife opened Falafilo Island, serving grilled meats and vegetables and falafel, in August 2018.

They invested thousands of pounds to set up the business, transforming the dark interior with a cheerful yellow ceiling and tree-patterned walls.

"We had so many lovely customers, but corona just hit us so hard, we had to close," Oskar told BBC Radio 4's The Food Programme.

They hoped a busy Christmas might save them, but Oskar's wife caught Covid and they had to isolate for two weeks.

"Then it was January and we thought: we should just close," he says. "We couldn't survive, even with the grants they gave."

Oskar, a computer science graduate, now has thousands of pounds of debt and is looking for other work.

CGA and AlixPartners measured the impact of the last 13 months on pubs and restaurants that hold a licence to serve alcohol.

Looking at the net number of venues, once all closures and new openings were taken into account, they found pubs across Britain fared slightly better than the restaurant sector.

The number of pubs serving food has fallen by 4.2%. Bars and pubs that only serve drinks fell by 5.2%.

But on top of the near-20% fall in casual dining outlets, bar-restaurants, which make up a smaller part of the overall dining market, fell by 9.6%.

General restaurants, which are the largest dining out category, are down 10.2%.

More

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57087070

Finally, more on that infamous ransomware attack. Does insurance help or just incentivise such attacks?

Pipeline Attack Stirs Debate on Whether Insurance Lures Hackers

Katherine Chiglinsky  May 14, 2021, 6:16 PM EDT

The ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline Co. that caused gasoline shortages along the U.S. East Coast also sparked a debate about whether cyber insurance helps protect against marauders -- or attracts them.

Some cyber-security experts say hackers target companies that have coverage, because they know the firms can pay ransoms. But others believe the blame is misplaced and that insurers, if anything, have raised the bar on cybersecurity.

“Ransomware actors are in it for the money so if they know a target is insured, they may go after that target,” said Chris Painter, president of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise and former cyber coordinator at the U.S. State Department. “On the other hand, underwriting standards for insurance often contain requirements that incentivize their insureds to be better at cybersecurity and hopefully prevent some of these attacks.”

Attacks have been on the rise. Cyber-security firm Emsisoft sees a roughly 12.4% jump in victims saying they were hit last year, compared with 2019. The amount of ransom being demanded nearly doubled in 2020, according to Group-IB.

----Meanwhile, the cyber-insurance market has been growing. Premiums for standalone cyber policies were up 28% in 2020 compared to a year earlier and have increased about 76% since 2016, according to ratings firm AM Best. But not every company is buying coverage. Just 47% of insurance broker Marsh’s clients in the U.S. purchased standalone cyber policies, up from 42% in 2019, the firm said.

Having that insurance can put a target on a company’s back, according to Analyst1’s chief security strategist, Jon DiMaggio. He cited a 2021 report from Cisco Talos that quoted an attacker saying a ransom payment was all but guaranteed if the target has insurance.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-14/pipeline-attack-stirs-debate-on-whether-insurance-lures-hackers?srnd=markets-vp

Global Inflation Watch.          

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Bond Vigilantes Swarm European Economies Where Inflation Is Hot

By Veronika Gulyas and Piotr Skolimowski

16 May 2021, 05:00 BST

·         Yields in Hungary and Poland rise faster than anywhere in EU

·         Traders pushing for early end to easing programs, rate hikes

Bond markets are famous for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.

Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week, signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer.

Like peers in Frankfurt, central bankers in Hungary and Poland have signaled they’re in no rush to curb inflation that may turn out to be temporary, preferring to wait and foster still-fragile economic recoveries from the pandemic.

Traders are less patient. In Hungary, market-implied pricing shows expectations for 130 basis points of rate hikes in two years, according to Bloomberg data.

“The central bank is walking a tightrope here,” said ING economist Peter Virovacz. “If it manages to communicate in a credible way that it believes CPI would return to its 2%-4% tolerance band next year, it can wait out the spike and avoid a hawkish cycle.”

-----These latter-day vigilantes may be gaining the upper hand, with strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterating their advice to stay underweight bonds in central and Eastern Europe.

A premature end of purchase programs is a big risk for Poland, where the central bank has bought the equivalent of 48% of issuance and in Hungary where it accounts for almost a third of purchases, according to JPMorgan.

QE Conundrum

If Polish policy makers bring forward their timetable for raising rates, the central bank would also have to wind down its quantitative-easing program, potentially removing the current backstop for the market.

One Polish policy maker, Eugeniusz Gatnar, recently called for a rate increase in June. Yet his voice remains in the minority on the 10-person panel. Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski has said that rates will stay at their record low until the end of the current policymakers’ term, which ends in early 2022.

Still, the inflation threat may be real: in Hungary the pace of annual consumer prices recently accelerated to 5.1%. In Poland it’s running at 4.3%. Both blew past the upper limit of the central banks’ tolerance range, and compare with an inflation reading of 4.2% in the U.S. that sent markets into a tailspin last week.

“With inflation surprising to the upside and growth on the mend, we think the market narrative will increasingly focus on the sustainability of QE in CEE,” according to JPMorgan emerging market strategists including Saad Siddiqui.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-16/bond-vigilantes-swarm-european-economies-where-inflation-is-hot?srnd=premium-europe

Inflation is climbing, but it isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet

Last Updated: May 15, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET

Consumer prices have been climbing to post-recession highs, worrying households and Wall Street about stretched paychecks and diminished wealth, just as the economy roars back.

The U.S. consumer-price index (CPI), a popular measure of inflation, shot up to a 13-year high of 4.2% in April from a year prior, putting stress on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

----Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group pointed out that “while the current level of CPI looks very high relative to the post-financial crisis period,” the index has yet to show signs of a breakout from its 30-year range.

“Based on the pain from prior spikes, let’s hope it stays that way,” Bespoke analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. [Emphasis mine.]

Inflation can push up the cost of everything from furniture to vacations. It can also lead to spells of volatility for stocks and bonds, particularly if the current pace of price increases keeps up.

“Overall, the stock market is getting impatient with the inflation narrative a lot sooner than the bond market,” Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, told MarketWatch, pointing to the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.625% yield’s biggest rise in eight weeks, to 1.702%.

“But there will be a point, perhaps two months from now, that if inflationary numbers don’t calm down, there could be panic in the bond market as well.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-climbing-but-it-isnt-blasting-past-its-30-year-range-yet-11620865730?mod=home-page

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Hancock: 'Increasing confidence' vaccines work against Indian variant

Sunday 16 May 2021 10:31 am

The government and its health officials have “increasing confidence” that vaccines work against the new Indian Covid variant, according to health secretary Matt Hancock.

Hancock said the government has a “high degree of confidence” the new variant transmits faster, but that “the early data suggests the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant”.

---- Speaking to the BBC, Hancock said: “The Indian variant does appear to transfer more easily from person to person.

“We do think it is relatively widespread in small numbers and we know with a high degree of confidence that it transmits faster.

“We have increasing confidence that the vaccine works against this virus and this variant, but the virus has got extra legs in the race against the vaccine and this virus.

“The early data suggests the vaccines is effective against the Indian variant.”

He added that there was a small number of people who have had the vaccine and also been hospitalised with the new Indian variant.

“There are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton – the majority of these people haven’t had the jab but are eligible for it,” Hancock said.

“We think that there are five people who have ended up in hospital having one jab, that’s why it’s so important to get the second jab. The vast majority of these have not had any jab but were eligible.”

https://www.cityam.com/hancock-increasing-confidence-vaccines-work-against-indian-variant/

Small Town Reporters Reveal Coronavirus Carnage in India

By Jeanette Rodrigues   16 May 2021, 04:41 BST

Across India’s small towns and villages, local language newspapers are revealing that thousands more are probably dying of the coronavirus each day than the government’s data show.

The Dainik Bhaskar, a Hindi newspaper popular across India’s crowded heartland, fanned 30 of its reporters along the banks of the river Ganga in Uttar Pradesh state. They found -- and photographed -- more than 2,000 corpses across some 1,140 kilometers (708 miles). That’s when the state government claims only about 300 are dying daily.

Their findings make grim reading: authorities are piling silt over more than 350 bodies lying in shallow graves in Kannauj, the reporters say; they see dogs gnawing at some of the 400 corpses just a short distance from a crematorium in Kanpur; they count 52 corpses floating down the river in Ghazipur, often crossing state borders.

“The Revered River probably wants us to share her grief,” the report reads. “That’s why, the bodies that are sought to be hidden, our Holy Mother Ganga has unearthed.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-16/small-town-reporters-reveal-coronavirus-carnage-in-india?srnd=premium-europe

Indian police find bodies on riverbank amid raging COVID-19

By RAJESH KUMAR SINGH and BISWAJEET BANERJEE  May 16, 2021

PRAYAGRAJ, India (AP) — Police are reaching out to villagers in northern India to investigate the recovery of bodies buried in shallow sand graves or washing up on the Ganges River banks, prompting speculation on social media that they were the remains of COVID-19 victims.

In jeeps and boats, the police used portable loudspeakers with microphones asking people not to dispose of the bodies in rivers. “We are here to help you perform the last rites,” police said.

On Friday, rains exposed the cloth coverings of bodies buried in shallow sand graves on the riverbank in Prayagraj, a city in Uttar Pradesh state.

Navneet Sehgal, a state government spokesman, on Sunday denied local media reports that more than 1,000 corpses of COVID-19 victims had been recovered from rivers in the past two weeks. “I bet these bodies have nothing to do with COVID-19,” he said.

He said some villagers did not cremate their dead, as is customary, due to a Hindu tradition during some periods of religious significance and disposed of them in rivers or digging graves on riverbanks.

K.P. Singh, a senior police officer, said authorities had earmarked a cremation ground for those who died of COVID-19 on the Prayagraj riverbank and the police were no longer allowing any burials on the riverfront.

Sehgal state authorities have found “a small number” of bodies on the riverbanks, he said, but didn’t give a figure.

Ramesh Kumar Singh, a member of Bondhu Mahal Samiti, a philanthropic organization that helps cremate bodies, said the number of deaths is very high in rural areas, and poor people have been disposing of the bodies in the river because of the exorbitant cost of performing the last rites and shortage of woods. The cremation cost has tripled up to 15,000 rupees ($210).

More

https://apnews.com/article/india-coronavirus-pandemic-health-88f11eb66e0f505fe941793c291bc946

Taiwan raises alert level after coronavirus cases surge

Issued on: 15/05/2021 - 08:58

Taiwan ordered stricter social distancing measures for its capital and surrounding areas on Saturday after a sudden spike in coronavirus cases in a place that has so far weathered the pandemic comparatively unscathed.

Authorities raised the alert level for Taipei and New Taipei City after 180 new domestic coronavirus infections were confirmed, up from 29 cases the previous day.

The new restrictions mean no more than five people can gather indoors and 10 outdoors -- but authorities stopped short of ordering a total lockdown.

Schools, government offices, workplaces and most businesses can stay open as long as social distancing measures can be maintained and masks are worn at all times.

"We will closely monitor in the next few days the development of the epidemic and adjust (closures) accordingly," health minister Chen Shih-chung said.

Taiwan has been hailed as a global leader in containing the Covid-19 pandemic, with just 1,500 cases, 12 deaths and minimal social distancing needed once its initial outbreak was quelled.

As a result, the island was one of the few industrialised economies to grow last year.

The latest measures come a day after authorities ordered an indefinite closure of entertainment venues in the wake of the widening outbreak.

The order covers bars, dance clubs, karaoke lounges, nightclubs, saunas and internet cafes as well as hostess clubs and teahouses.

Municipal facilities including libraries and sports centres will also be closed.

More

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210515-taiwan-raises-alert-level-after-coronavirus-cases-surge

 

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

World first: Oblique wave detonation engine may unlock Mach 17 aircraft

By Loz Blain  May 12, 2021

UCF researchers say they've trapped a sustained explosive detonation, fixed in place, for the first time, channeling its enormous power into thrust in a new oblique wave detonation engine that could propel an aircraft up to 17 times the speed of sound, potentially beating the scramjet as a hypersonic propulsion method.

---- Detonation is fast, chaotic and frequently destructive. It doesn't necessarily require oxygen, just a single explosive material and some kind of energetic poke big enough to break the chemical bonds holding an already-unstable molecule together. It creates exothermic shockwaves that accelerate outwards at supersonic speeds, releasing enormous amounts of energy.

People have been trying to harness the raw power of detonation – the most powerful form of combustion – for more than 60 years, but putting a bridle on a bomb has proven extremely difficult. Pulse detonation engines create a series of repeated explosions in a manner similar to a pulse jet, and these have already been tested in aircraft – notably in the Scaled Composites Long-EZ "Borealis" project built by the US Air Force Research Laboratory and Innovative Scientific Solutions Incorporated back in 2008.

Rotating detonation engines, in which the shockwaves from one detonation are tuned to trigger further detonations within a ring-shaped channel, were thought of as impossible to build right up until researchers at the University of Central Florida (UCF) went ahead and demonstrated a prototype last year in sustained operation. Due for testing in a rocket launch by around 2025, rotating detonation engines should be more efficient than pulse detonation engines simply because the combustion chamber doesn't need to be cleared out between detonations.

Now, another team from UCF, including some of the same researchers that built the rotating detonation engine last year, says it's managed a world-first demonstration of an elusive third type of detonation engine that could out-punch them all, theoretically opening up a pathway to aircraft flying at speeds up to 13,000 mph (21,000 km/h), or 17 times the speed of sound.

The standing wave, or oblique wave detonation engine (OWDE), aims to produce a continuous detonation that's stable and fixed in space, making for a ruthlessly efficient and controllable propulsion system generating significantly more power and using less fuel than current technology allows.

The UCF team claims it has successfully stabilized a detonation wave under hypersonic flow conditions, keeping it in place rather than having it move upstream (where it could cause the fuel source to explode) or downstream (where it would lose its explosive advantage and fizzle out into a deflagration).

To do so, the team built an experimental prototype that it called the High-Enthalpy Hypersonic Reacting Facility – or HyperReact, for short. Less than a meter (3.3 ft) long, the HyperReact can loosely be described as a hollow tube, divided into three sections, each with a precisely shaped interior.

More

https://newatlas.com/aircraft/oblique-wave-detonation-engine-hypersonic-ucf/

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. 

President Carter excels with his President Biden impression. Or is it the other way round?