Chinese
retail sales rose 17.7% in April on a year ago, short of forecasts for a jump
of 24.8%, while industrial output matched expectations with a rise of 9.8%.
The spread of the coronavirus was also a
hindrance with Singapore to shut most schools from Wednesday after reporting
the highest number of local infections in months.
Taiwan’s government on Monday had to
reassure investors it would stabilise stock and foreign exchange markets if
needed amid a spike in COVID-19 cases. Stocks there were still down 1.1%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan eked out a rise of 0.2%, nudging further away from a four-month
trough hit last week.
Chinese blue chips proved resilient with a
gain of 1.8%.
Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.7%, having also
touched its lowest since early January last week. Data suggested inflation was
a global phenomenon with Japan’s wholesale prices jumping 3.6% in April from a
year earlier as rising energy and commodities costs ate into corporate margins.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both
eased 0.1%, following Friday’s rally.
The U.S. data calendar is light this week,
putting the focus on minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for
any clue when officials there might start to talk about tapering.
So far, most Fed members have been doggedly
dovish on policy, arguing a spike in inflation was transitory, though there was
a risk it could get baked into expectations.
The University of Michigan consumer survey
last week showed the highest expected year-ahead inflation rate as well as the
highest long-term inflation rate in the past decade.
BofA’s U.S. economist Michelle Meyer sees
outsized price pressures from shortages of goods and rebounds in travel.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/asia-shares-left-listless-by-mixed-china-data-idUSKCN2CY01L
Next, as much of the
UK gets to reopen today, not everyone is coming back.
Covid: A tenth of Britain's
restaurants lost during pandemic
By Lucy Hooker Business reporter, BBC News 16 May
2021.
Monday sees another milestone in the reopening of the
economy: people in most of the UK will be able to go to a bar or restaurant and
eat indoors.
But some favourite haunts will no longer be there: over the
last year, thousands of establishments have closed, latest surveys indicate.
Across Britain, there are 9.7% fewer restaurants to choose
from, compared with before the pandemic.
And mid-market "casual dining" venues have fallen
by 19.4%.
The data in the latest Market Recovery Monitor from CGA and
AlixPartners suggests that while many pubs and bars have also struggled to
survive the pandemic, it is restaurants that have fared worst.
That includes places such as Oskar Ali's in Newport in
Wales. Oskar and his wife opened Falafilo Island, serving grilled meats and
vegetables and falafel, in August 2018.
They invested thousands of pounds to set up the business,
transforming the dark interior with a cheerful yellow ceiling and
tree-patterned walls.
"We had so many lovely customers, but corona just hit
us so hard, we had to close," Oskar told BBC Radio 4's The Food Programme.
They hoped a busy Christmas might save them, but Oskar's
wife caught Covid and they had to isolate for two weeks.
"Then it was January and we thought: we should just
close," he says. "We couldn't survive, even with the grants they
gave."
Oskar, a computer science graduate, now has thousands of
pounds of debt and is looking for other work.
CGA and AlixPartners measured the
impact of the last 13 months on pubs and restaurants that hold a licence to
serve alcohol.
Looking at the net number of venues,
once all closures and new openings were taken into account, they found pubs
across Britain fared slightly better than the restaurant sector.
The number of pubs serving food has
fallen by 4.2%. Bars and pubs that only serve drinks fell by 5.2%.
But on top of the near-20% fall in
casual dining outlets, bar-restaurants, which make up a smaller part of the
overall dining market, fell by 9.6%.
General restaurants, which are the
largest dining out category, are down 10.2%.
More
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57087070
Finally, more on that
infamous ransomware attack. Does insurance help or just incentivise such
attacks?
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our
spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bond Vigilantes Swarm European
Economies Where Inflation Is Hot
By Veronika
Gulyas and Piotr
Skolimowski
16 May 2021, 05:00 BST
·
Yields in Hungary and Poland rise faster than
anywhere in EU
·
Traders pushing for early end to easing
programs, rate hikes
Bond markets are famous
for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for
rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.
Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster
than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week,
signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life
ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer.
Like peers in Frankfurt, central bankers in Hungary and Poland
have signaled they’re in no rush to curb inflation that may turn out to be
temporary, preferring to wait and foster still-fragile economic recoveries from
the pandemic.
Traders are less patient. In Hungary, market-implied pricing
shows expectations for 130 basis points of rate hikes in two years, according
to Bloomberg data.
“The central bank is walking a tightrope here,” said ING
economist Peter Virovacz. “If it manages to communicate in a credible way that
it believes CPI would return to its 2%-4% tolerance band next year, it can wait
out the spike and avoid a hawkish cycle.”
-----These latter-day vigilantes may be gaining the upper
hand, with strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterating their advice to
stay underweight bonds in central and Eastern Europe.
A premature end of purchase programs is a big risk for Poland,
where the central bank has bought the equivalent of 48% of issuance and in
Hungary where it accounts for almost a third of purchases, according to
JPMorgan.
QE Conundrum
If Polish policy makers bring forward their timetable for
raising rates, the central bank would also have to wind down its
quantitative-easing program, potentially removing the current backstop for the
market.
One Polish policy maker, Eugeniusz Gatnar, recently called for
a rate increase in June. Yet his voice remains in the minority on the 10-person
panel. Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski has said that rates will
stay at their record low until the end of the current policymakers’ term, which
ends in early 2022.
Still, the inflation threat may be real: in Hungary the pace
of annual consumer prices recently accelerated to 5.1%. In Poland it’s running
at 4.3%. Both blew past the upper limit of the central banks’ tolerance range,
and compare with an inflation reading of 4.2% in the U.S. that sent markets
into a tailspin last week.
“With inflation surprising to the upside and growth on the
mend, we think the market narrative will increasingly focus on the
sustainability of QE in CEE,” according to JPMorgan emerging market strategists
including Saad Siddiqui.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-16/bond-vigilantes-swarm-european-economies-where-inflation-is-hot?srnd=premium-europe
Inflation is climbing, but it
isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet
Last Updated: May 15, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Consumer prices have been climbing to post-recession highs,
worrying households and Wall Street about stretched paychecks and diminished
wealth, just as the economy roars back.
The U.S. consumer-price index (CPI), a popular measure of
inflation, shot up to a 13-year high of 4.2% in April from a year prior,
putting stress on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
----Analysts at Bespoke Investment
Group pointed out that “while the current level of CPI looks very high relative
to the post-financial crisis period,” the index has yet to show signs of a
breakout from its 30-year range.
“Based on the pain from
prior spikes, let’s hope it stays that way,” Bespoke analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. [Emphasis mine.]
Inflation can push up the cost of
everything from furniture to vacations. It can also lead to spells of
volatility for stocks and bonds, particularly if the current pace of price
increases keeps up.
“Overall, the stock market is getting impatient with the
inflation narrative a lot sooner than the bond market,” Patrick Leary, head of
trading at Incapital, told MarketWatch, pointing to the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.625% yield’s biggest rise in eight weeks, to
1.702%.
“But there will be a point, perhaps two months from now,
that if inflationary numbers don’t calm down, there could be panic in the bond
market as well.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-climbing-but-it-isnt-blasting-past-its-30-year-range-yet-11620865730?mod=home-page
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hancock: 'Increasing confidence'
vaccines work against Indian variant
Sunday 16 May 2021 10:31
am
The government and its health
officials have “increasing confidence” that vaccines work against the new
Indian Covid variant, according to health secretary Matt Hancock.
Hancock said the government has a
“high degree of confidence” the new variant transmits faster, but that “the
early data suggests the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant”.
---- Speaking to the BBC, Hancock said: “The Indian
variant does appear to transfer more easily from person to person.
“We do think it is relatively
widespread in small numbers and we know with a high degree of confidence that
it transmits faster.
“We have increasing confidence that
the vaccine works against this virus and this variant, but the virus has got
extra legs in the race against the vaccine and this virus.
“The early data suggests the
vaccines is effective against the Indian variant.”
He added that there was a small
number of people who have had the vaccine and also been hospitalised with the
new Indian variant.
“There are 18 people in hospital
with coronavirus in Bolton – the majority of these people haven’t had the jab
but are eligible for it,” Hancock said.
“We think that there are five people
who have ended up in hospital having one jab, that’s why it’s so important to
get the second jab. The vast majority of these have not had any jab but were
eligible.”
https://www.cityam.com/hancock-increasing-confidence-vaccines-work-against-indian-variant/
Small Town Reporters Reveal
Coronavirus Carnage in India
By Jeanette
Rodrigues 16 May 2021, 04:41 BST
Across India’s small towns and villages, local language
newspapers are revealing that thousands more are probably dying of the coronavirus
each day than the government’s data show.
The Dainik Bhaskar, a Hindi newspaper popular across
India’s crowded heartland, fanned 30 of its reporters along the banks of the
river Ganga in Uttar Pradesh state. They found -- and photographed -- more than
2,000 corpses across some 1,140 kilometers (708 miles). That’s when the state
government claims only about 300 are dying daily.
Their findings make grim reading: authorities are piling silt
over more than 350 bodies lying in shallow graves in Kannauj, the reporters
say; they see dogs gnawing at some of the 400 corpses just a short distance
from a crematorium in Kanpur; they count 52 corpses floating down the river in
Ghazipur, often crossing state borders.
“The Revered River probably wants us to share her grief,” the
report reads. “That’s why, the bodies that are sought to be hidden, our Holy
Mother Ganga has unearthed.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-16/small-town-reporters-reveal-coronavirus-carnage-in-india?srnd=premium-europe
Indian police find bodies on
riverbank amid raging COVID-19
By
RAJESH KUMAR SINGH and BISWAJEET BANERJEE
May 16, 2021
PRAYAGRAJ, India (AP) — Police are reaching out
to villagers in northern India to investigate the recovery of bodies buried in
shallow sand graves or washing up on the Ganges River banks, prompting
speculation on social media that they were the remains of COVID-19 victims.
In jeeps and boats, the police used portable
loudspeakers with microphones asking people not to dispose of the bodies in
rivers. “We are here to help you perform the last rites,” police said.
On Friday, rains exposed the cloth coverings of
bodies buried in shallow sand graves on the riverbank in Prayagraj, a city in
Uttar Pradesh state.
Navneet Sehgal, a state government spokesman,
on Sunday denied local media reports that more than 1,000 corpses of COVID-19
victims had been recovered from rivers in the past two weeks. “I bet these
bodies have nothing to do with COVID-19,” he said.
He said some villagers did not cremate their
dead, as is customary, due to a Hindu tradition during some periods of
religious significance and disposed of them in rivers or digging graves on
riverbanks.
K.P. Singh, a senior police officer, said
authorities had earmarked a cremation ground for those who died of COVID-19 on
the Prayagraj riverbank and the police were no longer allowing any burials on
the riverfront.
Sehgal state authorities have found “a small
number” of bodies on the riverbanks, he said, but didn’t give a figure.
Ramesh Kumar Singh, a member of Bondhu Mahal
Samiti, a philanthropic organization that helps cremate bodies, said the number
of deaths is very high in rural areas, and poor people have been disposing of
the bodies in the river because of the exorbitant cost of performing the last
rites and shortage of woods. The cremation cost has tripled up to 15,000 rupees
($210).
More
https://apnews.com/article/india-coronavirus-pandemic-health-88f11eb66e0f505fe941793c291bc946
Taiwan raises alert level after
coronavirus cases surge
Issued on: 15/05/2021 -
08:58
Taiwan ordered stricter social
distancing measures for its capital and surrounding areas on Saturday after a
sudden spike in coronavirus cases in a place that has so far weathered the
pandemic comparatively unscathed.
Authorities raised the alert level
for Taipei and New Taipei City after 180 new domestic coronavirus infections
were confirmed, up from 29 cases the previous day.
The new restrictions mean no more
than five people can gather indoors and 10 outdoors -- but authorities stopped
short of ordering a total lockdown.
Schools, government offices,
workplaces and most businesses can stay open as long as social distancing
measures can be maintained and masks are worn at all times.
"We will closely monitor in the
next few days the development of the epidemic and adjust (closures)
accordingly," health minister Chen Shih-chung said.
Taiwan has been hailed as a global
leader in containing the Covid-19 pandemic, with just 1,500 cases, 12 deaths
and minimal social distancing needed once its initial outbreak was quelled.
As a result, the island was one of
the few industrialised economies to grow last year.
The latest measures come a day after
authorities ordered an indefinite closure of entertainment venues in the wake
of the widening outbreak.
The order covers bars, dance clubs,
karaoke lounges, nightclubs, saunas and internet cafes as well as hostess clubs
and teahouses.
Municipal facilities including
libraries and sports centres will also be closed.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210515-taiwan-raises-alert-level-after-coronavirus-cases-surge
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
World first: Oblique wave
detonation engine may unlock Mach 17 aircraft
By Loz Blain May 12, 2021
UCF
researchers say they've trapped a sustained explosive detonation, fixed in
place, for the first time, channeling its enormous power into thrust in a new
oblique wave detonation engine that could propel an aircraft up to 17 times the
speed of sound, potentially beating the scramjet as a
hypersonic propulsion method.
---- Detonation is fast, chaotic and frequently
destructive. It doesn't necessarily require oxygen, just a single explosive
material and some kind of energetic poke big enough to break the chemical bonds
holding an already-unstable molecule together. It creates exothermic shockwaves
that accelerate outwards at supersonic speeds, releasing enormous amounts of
energy.
People have been trying to harness the raw power of
detonation – the most powerful form of combustion – for more than 60 years, but
putting a bridle on a bomb has proven extremely difficult. Pulse detonation
engines create a series of repeated explosions in a manner similar to a pulse
jet, and these have already been tested in aircraft – notably in the Scaled Composites Long-EZ "Borealis" project
built by the US Air Force Research Laboratory and Innovative Scientific
Solutions Incorporated back in 2008.
Rotating
detonation engines, in which the shockwaves from one detonation are tuned
to trigger further detonations within a ring-shaped channel, were thought of as
impossible to build right up until researchers at the University of Central
Florida (UCF) went ahead and demonstrated
a prototype last year in sustained operation. Due for testing in a rocket
launch by around 2025, rotating detonation engines should be more efficient
than pulse detonation engines simply because the combustion chamber doesn't
need to be cleared out between detonations.
Now, another team from UCF, including some of the same
researchers that built the rotating detonation engine last year, says it's
managed a world-first demonstration of an elusive third type of detonation
engine that could out-punch them all, theoretically opening up a pathway to
aircraft flying at speeds up to 13,000 mph (21,000 km/h), or 17 times the speed
of sound.
The standing wave, or oblique wave detonation engine
(OWDE), aims to produce a continuous detonation that's stable and fixed in
space, making for a ruthlessly efficient and controllable propulsion system
generating significantly more power and using less fuel than current technology
allows.
The
UCF team claims it has successfully stabilized a detonation wave under
hypersonic flow conditions, keeping it in place rather than having it move
upstream (where it could cause the fuel source to explode) or downstream (where
it would lose its explosive advantage and fizzle out into a deflagration).
To
do so, the team built an experimental prototype that it called the
High-Enthalpy Hypersonic Reacting Facility – or HyperReact, for short. Less
than a meter (3.3 ft) long, the HyperReact can loosely be described as a hollow
tube, divided into three sections, each with a precisely shaped interior.
More
https://newatlas.com/aircraft/oblique-wave-detonation-engine-hypersonic-ucf/
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a
duck, then it probably is a duck.
President Carter excels with his President Biden impression. Or
is it the other way round?
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