Wall Street Bets On Trillions More Magic Money!

Baltic Dry Index. 1284  +01  Brent Crude 38.98

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Coronavirus Cases 03/11/20 World 47,113,430

Deaths 1,207,021

George Washington is the only president who didn’t blame the previous administration for his troubles. 

Anon.

No matter which party and old age pensioner wins today’s US elections, Wall Street is betting on trillions of more Magic Money Tree Money to pour out of Washington.

The polls say it will be a Democratic Socialist in the White House, taking over in the midst of a coronavirus pandemic at age 78. An age that suggests just a one term presidency, if not standing down earlier.

If the polls are right, it’s the outcome hoped for in Europe, Russia, China, Iran, and much of the rest of the world.

But with a second wave of coronavirus pandemic surging over America and Europe, leading to Europe’s main economies entering lock downs light as winter approaches, our stock casinos are far removed from what’s happening and about to happen in the real world economies.

Hopefully, by mid-day tomorrow the outcome of the US election comedy will be settled. Our coronavirus challenged real economies have a very trying winter directly ahead. Eventually, all the Magic Money Tree “money” has to be paid for. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

U.S. Futures, Asian Stocks Rise Ahead of Election: Markets Wrap

By Andreea Papuc

November 2, 2020, 9:50 PM GMT Updated on November 3, 2020, 5:41 AM GMT

·        

S&P 500 index rebounds after posting worst week since March

·         Currency markets signal traders bracing for post-poll swings

U.S. futures and Asian stocks rose Tuesday ahead of the American presidential election, while currency traders braced for increased volatility.

Shares in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea climbed more than 1%. Japan is closed for a holiday and Treasuries won’t trade until London opens. S&P 500 contracts advanced after the benchmark equity gauge gained Monday following last week’s 5.6% drop. Australian bond yields and the dollar fell after the central bank cut the cash rate and said it planned to buy A$100 billion ($70 billion) of five- and 10-year bonds over the next six months.

Implied volatility for the offshore yuan spiked. The one-week tenor -- often used as a proxy of market risk -- has more than doubled in the past week to the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2011. Overnight gauges for other currencies, such as the Australian dollar and sterling, also jumped as the presidential vote and its aftermath loom.

“Uncertainty will likely remain until Wednesday morning when we should have clarity on who holds the Presidency and Senate, assuming and this is a big if, the polls are correct,” Sebastien Galy, a senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, wrote in a note.

Polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead, though battleground states remain tight. Investors are fretting about the possibility the outcome will be contested, which means a clear winner might not emerge for some time, weighing on market sentiment. Also, while there has been a slight slowdown in virus cases in the U.S., several states continue to notch record numbers of infections.

“It’s pretty much a binary outcome,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The question is, is the market right now looking at a Biden victory? And will it be disappointed if we don’t have that?”

Once the U.S. election passes, investors will contend with the Federal Reserve delivering a policy decision Thursday before the October jobs report Friday. Elsewhere, oil held gains after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts.

These are some key events coming up:

• Earnings are due from companies including Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., Toyota Motor Corp., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc.
• U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday.
• EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.
• Fed policy decision on Thursday.
• The U.S. labor market report is due Friday.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-02/asia-stocks-head-for-muted-open-oil-rises-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-europe

Dow climbs 423 points ahead of election day; Treasury adjusts borrowing estimates

Nov. 2, 2020 / 5:06 PM

Nov. 2 (UPI) -- The three major U.S. indexes rose to set off the month of trading on Monday as markets prepared for Election Day and the potential effect of the result on long-awaited stimulus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 423.45 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.23%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.42% as its rise was limited by declining tech stocks.

Analysts predicted that the results of the presidential election the various Senate races could lead to an end in the ongoing stalemate in negotiations over another round of stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We have been emphasizing that the Senate outcome is important for the trajectory of fiscal policy," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said.

"Under any election scenario, we expect a $1.5 trillion plus fiscal package, possibly as early as just post-election."

The Treasury Department on Monday, however, scaled back its estimates for borrowing through the end of the year, predicting it would borrow $617 billion from October through December down from $1.22 trillion estimated in early August.

Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note Sunday that the market sell-off ahead of election day helps to reduce risk in the event of a contested result.

"Even though we're worried that there could still be one more wave down if we get another big influx of uncertainty, we think the stock market is now setting up nicely for a nice net advance over the next two months or so," Maley said.

The major averages entered the month coming off of their worst week since March 20 amid rising COVID-19 cases throughout the country.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/11/02/Dow-climbs-423-points-ahead-of-election-day-Treasury-adjusts-borrowing-estimates/6371604350928/

In other news.

Britain extends help to coronavirus-hit borrowers

November 2, 20207:25 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s financial watchdog said on Monday it would extend payment holidays on credit cards, car finance, personal loans and pawned goods before tougher coronavirus restrictions come into effect this week.

Britain announced a one-month lockdown across England would start on Thursday to contain a second wave of the pandemic.

Consumers who have not yet had a payment deferral under guidance issued in July can request one that lasts for up to six months, the Financial Conduct Authority said in a statement.

Borrowers who have already had one deferral would be able to apply for a second deferral, the FCA said.

“Borrowers should only take up this support if they need it,” the FCA said in a statement.

For high-cost, short-term credit like payday loans, consumers could apply for a payment deferral of one month if they have not already had one, the FCA said.

“We will work with trade bodies and lenders on how to implement these proposals as quickly as possible, and will make another announcement shortly,” the FCA said.

The FCA said on Saturday it would propose further relief to help mortgage borrowers and would make a statement on Monday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-banks-credit/britain-extends-help-to-coronavirus-hit-borrowers-idUKKBN27I0LL?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202020-11-02&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest

Goldman slashes Europe's fourth-quarter economic growth outlook

November 2, 202010:04 AM  By Reuters Staff

LONDON (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs sharply cut Europe’s fourth quarter economic forecasts on Monday as a surge in COVID-19 cases prompted the introduction of partial nationwide lockdowns in some countries in November, halting a nascent recovery seen during the summer.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered England back into a national lockdown from Thursday as a second wave of infections threatened to overwhelm the health service. The move brought England into alignment with France and Germany which imposed nationwide restrictions early last week.

The U.S. investment bank said it expects the euro area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink 2.3% in the fourth quarter, a sharp reversal from its earlier projection of 2.2% growth.

Similarly, it cut UK GDP growth forecasts to minus 2.4% from a 3.6% expansion it had earlier expected.

“Looking ahead, we assume that the new restrictions will last for three months before they are gradually rolled back starting in February,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note to clients.

Citi economists, meanwhile, said they expected UK GDP to shrink by over 4% between October and December. “More protracted national lockdowns cannot be ruled out,” Citi said in a note.

“With virus risks still likely to persist until Q2-2021, we expect output to remain more than 11-13% below Q4-2019 levels until then, with local restrictions and an acute behavioural response weighing sharply (alongside Brexit). The risk of more permanent effects is also growing.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-europe-gdp/goldman-slashes-europes-fourth-quarter-economic-growth-outlook-idUKKBN27I0ZE

Walmart drops plans to use robots for tracking inventory

November 2, 2020 8:53 PM

(Reuters) - Walmart Inc said on Monday it has dropped its plans to use roving robots to scan shelves and keep track of inventory, squashing the world’s largest retailer’s years-long efforts to automate the task.

The company said it had ended its partnership with Bossa Nova Robotics Inc, who it had worked with for five years to improve customer experience by using robots to assist shop staff and make their jobs easier.

“This was one idea we tried in roughly 500 stores just as we are trying other ideas in additional stores,” Walmart said in a statement.

Walmart added it would continue to test new technologies and invest in its own processes and apps to track inventory and help move products to shelves as quickly as possible.

The supermarket chain began rolling out shelf-scanning robots in 2017 to replenish inventory faster and save employees’ time when products run out, as a part of its broader effort to digitize its stores to make shopping faster as it competes with Amazon.com Inc.

Walmart, which posted record online sales in its recent quarter, now has more workers walking the aisles to package online orders, extracting new data on inventory problems, people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal, which was the first to report this news.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-walmart-robots/walmart-drops-plans-to-use-robots-for-tracking-inventory-idUKKBN27I2MU

Winter Watch.

The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.

Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving norther hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.

Adding to this year’s winter concerns, a developing La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. While the La Nina effect on the winter weather of western Europe is weaker than that of an El Nino pattern, which tends to make for a milder winter, a La Nina pattern tends to make for a colder winter.

The early take, Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October. North America is now playing catchup. The Arctic sea ice expansion is slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation will probably now speed up. Which now seems to be happening in the Kara and Laptev Seas.

It is still too early to suggest a mild western European winter ahead.

US National Ice Center.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Winston Churchill

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Cases Up in Key Election Spots; H.K. Extends Rules: Virus Update

Bloomberg News

November 2, 2020, 11:44 PM GMT Updated on November 3, 2020, 4:36 AM GMT

The virus continued its unrelenting surge across the U.S., with cases soaring in key battleground states ahead of the presidential election.

In Asia, Hong Kong extended social distancing rules by another week and Malaysia’s prime minister ordered a review of measures amid an increase in cases. Thailand is considering reducing mandatory quarantine to 10 days, while Indonesia reported the fewest new cases since August. Singapore schools will require students to use the government’s contact tracing token or mobile app from the start of December. Australia’s central bank cut interest rates.

France reported record daily cases as large parts of Europe prepare for tougher measures to fight the pandemic. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there’s “no alternative” to imposing a lockdown across England. Italy laid out new plans to try to halt the coronavirus’s spread, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged people to abide by rules.

Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases surpass 46.8 million; deaths top 1.2 million
• ‘Fire Fauci’ is easier for crowd to chant than for Trump to do
• China’s race for first Covid-19 vaccine raises safety question
• Toxic air from fires is set to make India’s virus fight deadlier
• Understanding the virus and its unanswered questions: QuickTake
• Vaccine Tracker: Clinical trials restart in hopeful sign

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-02/cases-up-in-key-election-states-new-france-record-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

As U.S. COVID-19 cases break records, weekly deaths rise 3%

November 2, 2020 9:13 PM

(Reuters) - The number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States hit another record high last week, rising 18% to more than 575,000, while deaths inched up 3%, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports.

The number of new cases reported each week has risen for four straight weeks, with the biggest increases seen in the last two weeks.

Nationally, nearly 5,800 people died of the virus in the seven days ended Nov. 1, bringing the total to over 230,000. Health experts say deaths tend to increase four to six weeks after a surge in infections.

Thirty-four out of 50 states have seen new cases increase for at least two weeks in a row, down from 36 the prior week. They include Florida, Ohio and Michigan — all hotly contested states for Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. New cases rose 60% in Pennsylvania, another crucial state.

Texas reported the most new cases last week with over 45,600, followed by Illinois, which has half as many people, with over 44,500 new cases.

The United States performed 8.5 million COVID-19 tests last week, of which 6.8% came back positive for the new virus, compared with 6.3% the prior week, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run effort to track the outbreak.

South Dakota led the nation with the highest positive test rate at 50%, followed by Iowa at 44% and Wyoming at 43%. A total of 17 states had a positive test rate of over 10%.

The World Health Organization considers rates above 5% concerning because it suggests there are more cases in the community that have not yet been uncovered.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-trends/as-u-s-covid-19-cases-break-records-weekly-deaths-rise-3-idUKKBN27I2OF

Portugal PM Costa asks president to declare COVID-19 emergency

November 2, 202012:27 PM

LISBON (Reuters) - Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa asked the country’s president on Monday to declare a state of emergency as a preventive measure to fight the spread of coronavirus at a time when infections are soaring.

The last COVID-19 state of emergency, which under Portuguese law is limited to 15 days but can be extended indefinitely in 15-day periods if necessary, was declared by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in March and lasted six weeks.

“It is a critical moment and declaring the...emergency will reinforce the civic awareness of the sanitary emergency we are facing,” Costa told reporters, adding the move was likely to last much longer than just 15 days.

The president was expected to proclaim the emergency in a televised address on Monday evening and then parliament would then have to enact it - both considered formalities.

On Saturday, the government introduced measures, such as the civic duty - a recommendation rather than rule - to stay at home except for outings for work, school or shopping, across 121 municipalities including in the key regions of Lisbon and Porto.

A state of emergency would clear the way for compulsory measures such as tough restrictions on movement of people, a suspension of the right to strike and further curbs on public gatherings.

Costa said the emergency would not be as sweeping as in March but a nightly curfew could be implemented if needed to limit contagion of the virus in social settings.

Portugal, with just over 10 million people, has recorded a comparatively low 144,341 cases and 2,544 deaths from COVID-19. But daily new cases reached 4,656 on Friday, the highest since the pandemic began. Testing for the virus has also increased.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-pm-costa-asks-president-to-declare-covid-19-emergency-idUKKBN27I1FJ?il=0

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Flash graphene rocks strategy for plastic waste

Rice University lab detours potential environmental hazard into useful material

Date:  October 30, 2020

Source:  Rice University

Summary:  Scientists advance a new technique to make graphene from waste with a focus on plastic.

Plastic waste comes back in black as pristine graphene, thanks to ACDC.

That's what Rice University scientists call the process they employed to make efficient use of waste plastic that would otherwise add to the planet's environmental woes. In this instance, the lab of Rice chemist James Tour modified its method to make flash graphene to enhance it for recycling plastic into graphene.

The lab's study appears in the American Chemical Society journal ACS Nano.

Simply, instead of raising the temperature of a carbon source with direct current, as in the original process, the lab first exposes plastic waste to around eight seconds of high-intensity alternating current, followed by the DC jolt.

The products are high-quality turbostratic graphene, a valuable and soluble substance that can be used to enhance electronics, composites, concrete and other materials, and carbon oligomers, molecules that can be vented away from the graphene for use in other applications.

"We produce considerable amount of hydrogen, which is a clean fuel, in our flashing process," said Rice graduate student and lead author Wala Algozeeb.

Tour estimated that at industrial scale, the ACDC process could produce graphene for about $125 in electricity costs per ton of plastic waste.

"We showed in the original paper that plastic could be converted, but the quality of the graphene wasn't as good as we wanted it to be," Tour said. "Now, by using a different sequence of electrical pulses, we can see a big difference."

---- Tour noted flash joule conversion eliminates much of the expense associated with recycling plastic, including sorting and cleaning that require energy and water. "Rather than recycling plastic into pellets that sell for $2,000 a ton, you could be upcycling to graphene, which has a much higher value," he said. "There's an economic as well as an environmental incentive."

Despite the overwhelming amount of plastic feedstock, having too much graphene won't be a problem, Tour said. "Whatever you do with carbon, once you've taken it up out of the ground from oil or gas or coal, it ends up in the carbon dioxide cycle," he said. "The nice thing about graphene is its biological degradation under many conditions is very slow, so in most cases it doesn't reenter the carbon cycle for hundreds of years."

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201030092250.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

US Politics Betting Odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.

Woody Allen