Monday, 2 November 2020

The End In Sight! More Lock Downs. Fright Week.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1283  -14  Brent Crude 36.72

Spot Gold 1885 

Coronavirus Cases 02/11/20 World 46,626,631

Deaths 1,201,781

The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. 

Joseph Stalin

This week it’s all about the USA. More correctly, who will become the next USA President next January. 

The polls give the soon to be 78 years old challenger a nine percent to fourteen percent lead over defending incumbent President Trump. Though the polls were badly wrong in 2016, they are unlikely to be badly wrong again.

Almost as important is the outcome of the Senate elections. If the Democrat Socialists gain control of all three branches of government, America and the rest of the world are in for at least four years of some very left wing changes. 

Would that be enough to end the Federal Reserve stock casinos bubbles. To this old dinosaur, probably. Worse, since getting out early always beats getting carried out last, many stock gamblers are likely to try to rush for the exit all at the same time. Long before the Democrat Socialists get control in January.

For most of the week what happens next in America drives most stocks. 

In the real world where most people live and work, what happens next in the coronavirus crisis, what happens next in unemployment, commercial and residential real estate, in oil and commodities pricing, is far more important as winter approaches.

Asian Stocks Climb in Volatile Trading; Oil Falls: Markets Wrap

By Adam Haigh

Updated on

Asian stocks climbed in a volatile start to a crucial week spanning the U.S. election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting, events that could set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year. Oil tumbled to a five-month low.

S&P 500 futures nudged up after erasing an earlier decline. The dollar ticked higher with Treasuries. Japan stocks outperformed. The moves at the beginning of November come after global equities posted two months of losses.

Concern that economic growth will be hampered by further lockdown measures in Europe dragged crude prices and commodity currencies lower. The pound slipped as increased restrictions in England aimed at controlling the coronavirus overshadowed signs of progress on Brexit trade talks.

The main event this week will be Tuesday’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. Virus developments are also front and center with the recent surge in U.S. cases showing signs of slowing over the weekend. Countries in Europe are restricting the movement of people in a bid to contain the spread of the pathogen.

“Whichever way you look at it, this coming week will be huge for U.S. and global markets,” said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC. “We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility around these events -- and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19 situation across much of the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.”

China’s economic recovery continued in October, with manufacturing gauges beating expectations.

Also weighing on crude Monday was a continued ramp up of production in Libya. Meantime, gold recouped earlier losses.

These are some key events coming up:

  • Earnings are due from companies including Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., Toyota Motor Corp., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc.
  • U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday.
  • EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.
  • Fed policy decision on Thursday.
  • The U.S. labor market report is due Friday.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-01/stock-futures-signal-higher-asia-open-pound-dips-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-europe

Asian shares boosted by stronger China factory data

2 hours ago

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday buoyed by further signs of recovery in China’s manufacturing sector.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 1.4% to 23,303.42 in morning trading, while South Korea’s Kospi gained nearly 0.9% to 2,287.17. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 5,952.40. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7% to 24,277.75, while the Shanghai Composite inched down less than 0.1% to 3,221.78.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI, a major indicator for China’s manufacturing sector, rose in October, showing that domestic demand is holding up. But if coronavirus cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, that’s likely to hurt China’s exports.

Still, a resurgence of outbreaks of COVID-19 has investors worried, on top of uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election.

The government’s top infectious diseases expert has cautioned that the U.S. will have to deal with “a whole lot of hurt” in the weeks ahead due to surging coronavirus cases. Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a Washington Post interview that the U.S. “could not possibly be positioned more poorly” to stem rising cases as more people gather indoors during the colder fall and winter months.

Aside from pandemic and election concerns, market players are looking ahead to a slew of earnings reports expected from Japan and the rest of the region, including automakers and video-game maker Nintendo Co.

“With voters in the U.S. going to the polls this week, or more accurately, not going to the polls, having already cast their postal votes in huge numbers, Asia will be looking nervously westwards this week, wondering what the outcome will be, and that it will mean for them,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for ING.

The focus is on U.S. China relations, but investors aren’t sure what change either outcome might bring on that issue. Although Democratic candidate Joseph Biden might go easier on tariffs, say he is unlikely to soften U.S. policy on other issues such as human rights, Carnell said in a report.

Last week proved punishing for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 posting its first back-to-back monthly loss since the coronavirus pandemic first gripped the economy in March.

Investors have been cashing in gains from the recovery in the past several months, moving to lock in profits ahead of the election.

More

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-financial-markets-elections-asia-financial-markets-5e9b5c26f61133db75a4784dbd4f8d96

U.S.’s Huge Week, European Lockdown, China Supply Chain: Eco Day

Bloomberg News

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