The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who
count the votes decide everything.
Joseph Stalin
This week it’s all about the USA. More correctly, who
will become the next USA President next January.
The polls give the soon to be 78 years old challenger a
nine percent to fourteen percent lead over defending incumbent President Trump.
Though the polls were badly wrong in 2016, they are unlikely to be badly wrong
again.
Almost as important is the outcome of the Senate elections.
If the Democrat Socialists gain control of all three branches of government,
America and the rest of the world are in for at least four years of some very
left wing changes.
Would that be enough to end the Federal Reserve stock
casinos bubbles. To this old dinosaur, probably. Worse, since getting out early
always beats getting carried out last, many stock gamblers are likely to try to
rush for the exit all at the same time. Long before the Democrat Socialists get
control in January.
For most of the week what happens next in America drives most
stocks.
In the real world where most people live and work, what
happens next in the coronavirus crisis, what happens next in unemployment,
commercial and residential real estate, in oil and commodities pricing, is far
more important as winter approaches.
Asian Stocks Climb in Volatile
Trading; Oil Falls: Markets Wrap
Asian stocks climbed in a volatile start to a crucial week
spanning the U.S. election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting, events that
could set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year. Oil tumbled
to a five-month low.
S&P 500 futures nudged up after erasing an earlier
decline. The dollar ticked higher with Treasuries. Japan stocks outperformed.
The moves at the beginning of November come after global equities posted two
months of losses.
Concern that economic growth will be hampered by further
lockdown measures in Europe dragged crude prices and commodity currencies lower. The pound slipped as
increased restrictions in England aimed at controlling the coronavirus
overshadowed signs of progress on Brexit trade talks.
The main event this week will be Tuesday’s U.S. election,
with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls.
Virus developments are also front and center with the recent surge in U.S. cases
showing signs of slowing over the weekend. Countries in Europe are restricting
the movement of people in a bid to contain the spread of the pathogen.
“Whichever way you look at it, this coming week will be
huge for U.S. and global markets,” said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First
Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC. “We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility
around these events -- and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19
situation across much of the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.”
China’s economic recovery continued in October, with manufacturing
gauges beating expectations.
Also weighing on crude Monday was a continued ramp up of production in
Libya. Meantime, gold recouped earlier losses.
These are some key events coming up:
Earnings are due from
companies including Nintendo Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., Toyota Motor
Corp., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and AstraZeneca Plc.
Asian shares boosted by stronger
China factory data
By
YURI KAGEYAMA 2
hours ago
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday buoyed by further
signs of recovery in China’s manufacturing sector.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 1.4% to 23,303.42 in morning trading,
while South Korea’s Kospi gained nearly 0.9% to 2,287.17. Australia’s
S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 5,952.40. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7% to
24,277.75, while the Shanghai Composite inched down less than 0.1% to 3,221.78.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI, a major indicator for China’s
manufacturing sector, rose in October, showing that domestic demand is holding
up. But if coronavirus cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, that’s
likely to hurt China’s exports.
Still, a resurgence of outbreaks of COVID-19 has investors worried, on
top of uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election.
The government’s top infectious diseases expert has cautioned that the
U.S. will have to deal with “a whole lot of hurt” in the weeks ahead due to
surging coronavirus cases. Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a Washington Post
interview that the U.S. “could not possibly be positioned more poorly” to stem
rising cases as more people gather indoors during the colder fall and winter
months.
Aside from pandemic and election concerns, market players are looking
ahead to a slew of earnings reports expected from Japan and the rest of the
region, including automakers and video-game maker Nintendo Co.
“With voters in the U.S. going to the polls this week, or more
accurately, not going to the polls, having already cast their postal votes in
huge numbers, Asia will be looking nervously westwards this week, wondering
what the outcome will be, and that it will mean for them,” said Robert Carnell,
regional head of research for ING.
The focus is on U.S. China relations, but investors aren’t sure what
change either outcome might bring on that issue. Although Democratic candidate
Joseph Biden might go easier on tariffs, say he is unlikely to soften U.S.
policy on other issues such as human rights, Carnell said in a report.
Last week proved punishing for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 posting
its first back-to-back monthly loss since the coronavirus pandemic first
gripped the economy in March.
Investors have been cashing in gains from the recovery in the past
several months, moving to lock in profits ahead of the election.
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.
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