It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the
age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it
was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of
Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had
everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to
Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so
far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on
its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of
comparison only.
The Fed, with apologies to Charles Dickens.
It’s party time in global stock markets, thanks to all the
central bankster Magic Money Trees. Who knew that the banksters all along had a
Magic Money Forest that they kept hidden from the rest of us?
Now that the Democrats are taking control, I bet we haven’t
seen anything yet. Come Christmas 2021, we’re all going to be millionaires!
Should I order my EV Rolls Royce now to beat the rush?
Stocks Slip as Record Month Nears
End; Oil Falls: Markets Wrap
November
29, 2020, 9:09 PM GMT Updated on November 30, 2020, 5:39 AM GMT
OPEC+ fails to agree on output-hike
delay before big meeting
Powell testifies, U.S. jobs report
among this week’s events
Dollar to Continue on Gradual Depreciation Path: UBP
Stocks in Asia swung from gains to losses along with
U.S. and European equity futures as investors monitored progress on the path to
a coronavirus vaccine on the final day of a record month for global equities.
Oil retreated.
S&P 500 futures began the trading week higher,
then slipped, as did Australian and Japanese shares. A gauge of the dollar
extended its recent retreat to the lowest level since April 2018. Chinese
equities outperformed as activity in the country’s manufacturing sector picked
up faster than expected in November and the central bank unexpectedly injected
funds into the financial system. Oil retreated after an OPEC+ agreement to
postpone an output increase planned for January remained elusive before a
meeting Monday. Gold dropped.
On Sunday, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said
the federal government hopes to quickly review and approve requests from two
big drugs makers for emergency approval of their Covid-19 vaccines. Meanwhile,
Reuters reported that the Trump administration is adding SMIC and CNOOC Ltd. to
a blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies.
Global equities are up 13% in November as positive
vaccine news helped drive expectations that a global economic recovery can pick
up in 2021, helping flows into companies with earnings more closely tied to a
rebound in growth. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects a large proportion of the
public across major developed economies to receive a vaccine by the middle of
2021, driving a “sharp pickup” in global growth. While New York City schools
will begin to reopen Dec. 7, California cases rose to a record after Los
Angeles and San Francisco imposed tighter restrictions.
“As long as the trajectory in economic data is one for
improvement, then there is room for the cyclical areas to outperform,” Nader
Naeimi, a multi-asset fund manager at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said on
Bloomberg TV. “Those cyclical, value areas are likely to be beneficiaries of
the environment we are going into post vaccine and more normalization.”
A full meeting of OPEC and its allies will take place
Monday, and unless an agreement is revised this week, they will restart about
1.9 million barrels a day of halted output threatening to undermine the recent
surge in crude prices.
These are some key events coming up:
OPEC holds a virtual full
ministerial meeting to make a final decision on whether a production
supply hike should proceed as scheduled in January.
The Reserve Bank of
Australia holds a policy meeting on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The U.S. employment report
on Friday is expected to show more Americans headed back to work in
November, though at a slower pace than last month.
In
the stock casinos, you wouldn’t know that there’s an uncontained coronavirus
pandemic underway, one that devastating large sections of the G-20 economies.
In
the casinos, it’s all about massive free money from the central banksters and
crony “capitalism.”
On
Monday in the casinos, it’s time again to dress up the stock indexes for the
month-end performance bonuses.
Later
next month, in a move that’s widely expected to cause a year-end new stock
mania, Tesla gets added to the S&P 500.
To
this old dinosaur market watcher, it seems to me to be yet more bubble and
mania. Like all previous bubbles and manias, it's highly likely to end in a
crash.
At
the start of 1918, Kaiser Bill thought he was onto a winning roll. Russia was
out of the war, his armies were surging again on the western front, what could
possibly go wrong?
On
the 28th of November 1918, Kaiser Bill put in writing his abdication, ending
500 years of his dynasty’s rule and just under 40 years of the German Empire.
Life
can play out very differently to what we expect. We don’t always get what we
expect, but we usually get what we deserve.
Stocks at record high but
yields fall, dollar under pressure
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose across the globe on
Friday to close at a fresh high and remained on track for their strongest
monthly performance on record but the Nasdaq outperformed on Wall Street and
Treasury yields fell, indicating lingering concerns over rising coronavirus
cases globally.
A global stock
index touched a record high for the third session this week while the dollar
index, a measure of the greenback versus six peers, touched a three-month low
and closed at its lowest since April 2018.
On Wall
Street, the main indexes rose and the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high. The
Nasdaq outperformance mirrors recent sessions when, despite rising stocks, the
focus was on the economic impact of the pandemic. The U.S. expects a further
surge in coronavirus infections following the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 37.9 points, or 0.13%, to 29,910.37, the S&P
500 gained 8.7 points, or 0.24%, to 3,638.35 and the Nasdaq Composite added
111.44 points, or 0.92%, to 12,205.85.
European
stocks rose after the European Central Bank reinforced expectations of further
stimulus next month and Sweden’s Riksbank made a surprise increase to its
quantitative-easing program.
The
pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.41% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the
globe gained 0.39% to 623.75 after touching a high of 624.29.
It has been
a year many would prefer to forget and a month of 2020 still remains -- one
replete with events that could trip up markets. Here they are:
Dec. 1: A
month before the UK-EU transition deal ends.
Dec. 8:
Deadline to complete U.S. state-level vote recounts and court contests over the
election.
Dec. 10:
European Central Bank meets and should increase emergency stimulus.
Dec. 11:
U.S. government funding lapses unless lawmakers agree a 12-bill spending
package.
Dec. 10-11:
EU council meeting. Issues are Brexit and the risk that Poland and Hungary will
scupper an EU stimulus spending plan.
Dec. 14: The
U.S. electoral college votes, with the risk that some “faithless” electors
break the rule requiring them to vote in line with the popular vote.
Dec. 15-16 -
U.S. Federal Reserve meets. Will it expand bond-buying or signal a yield cap?
Dec. 28:
European Parliament could vote on any Brexit deal.
2/HARD WORK
An explosion in new COVID-19 infections and
business restrictions have been undermining the U.S. labour market recovery so
Friday’s November payrolls figures will be closely watched.
Last month saw 638,000 new jobs amid signs
the economy was healing from the pandemic-induced downturn. But it was the
smallest gain since the jobs recovery started in May and left employment 10.1
million below its February peak.
November is likely to be the seventh
straight month of jobs gains, but expectations are that only 520,000 jobs were
added.
-U.S. weekly jobless claims rise as COVID-19
infections surge
-U.S. consumer spending rises; income falls
in October
Germany urges Europe to close
ski resorts ahead of holiday season
Nov. 27, 2020 / 12:35 AM
Nov. 26 (UPI) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she is seeking a ban on ski
resorts throughout Europe ahead of the holiday season to stem the surging
spread of the coronavirus, but not all countries are on board.
"The ski season is approaching. We are trying to come
to an agreement in Europe on whether we manage to close down all ski
resorts," Merkel said before the German Parliament on Thursday, calling for
an EU-wide ban on ski resorts to prevent unnecessary contact among tourists.
"When we hear from Austria, it does not seem we can
succeed easily, but we will try," she said.
During the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak in
Europe, clusters were connected to ski resorts.
Italy and France have both shown support for the ban.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe
Conte has asked Italians to stay home during the holiday season
and placed restrictions on ski resort operations but said if neighboring
countries don't do similarly their measures won't have much effect.
"It will not be possible to allow holidays on the snow
this year, we cannot afford it," he said. "If Italy closes its lifts
without support from France, Austria and others, Italians could go abroad and
bring the disease back."
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France where ski
resorts are currently closed, said "it will not be possible" for them
to re-open this holiday season, stating it might be possible in January to do
so if conditions are safe.
Ski resorts in Austria are also currently closed due to a
lockdown but are set to reopen following the measure's expiration on Dec. 7.
Austria's Finance Minister Gernot Blumel said
that if an EU-ban was enforced, "they will have to pay for it."
Salzburg Gov. Wilfried Haslauer told local news that he
would be opening his city's ski resorts around Dec. 19, The Local reported.
The Austrian governor acknowledge that the ski season
wouldn't be the same as usual but promised visitors "safe" skiing and
that the companies "are well prepared."
Germany's call to ban skiing came a day after it agreed on Wednesday to extend coronavirus safety
restrictions that have been in place since late October until Dec. 20.
"This winter will be hard but it will come to an
end," Merkel said Thursday. "And now, when we are thinking so much
about Christmas and New Year, I wish for myself and I wish for all that we pull
together and that we are there for one another more than ever before. If we can
embrace that, we will get through this crisis."
Last week, World Health Organization Director for the European
Region Dr. Henri P. Kluge said they are seeing indicators of overwhelmed health
systems as more than 4 million cases were added so far this month while deaths
linked to the virus have climbed by 18% in the past two weeks.
"That's one person dying every 17 seconds in the
European region from COVID-19," he said.
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Reuters) - U.S. health authorities will
hold an emergency meeting next week to recommend that a coronavirus vaccine
awaiting approval be given first to healthcare professionals and people in
long-term care facilities.
The meeting,
announced on Friday by a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
committee on immunizations, suggests that the Food and Drug Administration
(FDA) may be close to authorizing distribution of the long-awaited medication,
at least to those considered most vulnerable.
United
Airlines has begun moving shipments of the vaccine, developed by Pfizer Inc, on
charter flights to ensure it can be quickly distributed once it is approved,
according to a person familiar with the matter.
The CDC’s
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will vote on Tuesday to recommend
that the FDA allow healthcare professionals and long-term care facilities to be
the first two groups to get initial vaccine supplies, a CDC spokeswoman said.
A green
light for any vaccine would come as welcome news to Americans, who political
leaders have clamped under increasingly aggressive measures to curtail the
spread of the virus.
Los Angeles
County health officials on Friday banned all public and private gatherings for
at least three weeks and urged residents to stay home as much as possible.
The county
exempted religious services and protests from the order, citing constitutional
protections in an apparent acknowledgment of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling this
week that rejected New York state’s restrictions on churches and synagogues.
New York
Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, dismissed the top court’s decision as
“irrelevant,” saying it was narrowly tailored to specific areas no longer
subject to the limits.
But the
ruling could drive legal challenges against similar limits placed on houses of
worship in other states, including California.
“It is fair
to say that this Supreme Court ruling has broader implications and governors
would be wise to be guided by it in any attempts to single out houses of
worship for disparate treatment,” Randy Mastro, lead attorney for the Catholic
Archdiocese of Brooklyn in the case, told Reuters.
COVID-19 epidemic in UK
shrinking, R-rate estimated below 1
November
27, 20201:43 PMBy Reuters Staff
LONDON (Reuters) - The COVID-19 epidemic
in Britain has retreated slightly, with the reproduction “R” number estimated
to be below 1, suggesting that England’s second national lockdown is stemming
infections, government scientists said on Friday.
The number
of new infections across Britain is shrinking by between 0% and 2% every day,
the UK Government Office for Science said, after it was estimated to be growing
between 0% and 2% in last week’s release.
The R number
was estimated to be between 0.9 and 1, meaning every 10 people infected will go
on to infect between 9 and 10 people, down from last week’s range of 1.0-1.1.
Government
scientists said the estimates were based on latest data for the United Kingdom
up to Nov. 24, but that lags meant the impact of national restrictions
introduced in England on Nov. 5 were only just being seen and could not yet be
fully evaluated.
“R estimates
for England may continue to decline in the future and may be below 1 for all
regions already,” the Government Office for Science said in a statement.
The lockdown
in England - home to around 85% of the UK’s total population - expires on
Wednesday and will be replaced with a regional system of tiered restrictions.
AstraZeneca responds to
concerns about COVID-19 vaccine candidate
Nov. 26, 2020 / 2:06 PM
Nov. 26 (UPI) -- AstraZeneca and Oxford University responded Thursday to questions
raised over trial results for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
The pharmaceutical company said Monday that its vaccine candidate, AZD1222, had an
average efficacy of 70%.
Some in the scientific community questioned the results and
the methods of the trial and criticized the way the company initially disclosed
its data. The company said a mistake led to some trial participants receiving the
initial dose at half strength.
On Thursday, AstraZeneca told CNBC that it adhered to the
"highest standards" in its studies.
"More data will continue to accumulate and additional
analysis will be conducted refining the efficacy reading and establishing the
duration of protection," a spokesperson told the news outlet.
The questions emerged after a smaller group of 2,741 trial
participants received a half dose of the vaccine initially followed by a full
dose at least a month later, with results showing 90% efficacy. A second group
of 8,895 participants received two full doses of the vaccine at least a month
apart, with results showing 62% efficacy.
Oxford University attributed the lower dose to "a difference in the
manufacturing process."
"The methods for measuring the concentration are now
established and we can ensure that all batches of vaccines are now
equivalent," Oxford said.
Some U.S. scientists, including Moncef Slaoui, chief of the
White House vaccine effort, Operation Warp Speed, said the 90% efficacy result
was only shown for low-risk participants younger than age 55.
An analyst from investment bank SVB Leerink said the
company's trials didn't meet FDA requirements for populations at increased
risk, including minorities, severe cases, previously infected individuals and
elderly.
AstraZeneca said an external Data Safety Monitoring Board
monitored the study for safety and quality.
The vaccine candidate is the third to announce preliminary
results of late-stage trials. Pfizer and BioNTech and Moderna each reported
early results showing 95% efficacy for their COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious
diseases expert, has sought to reassure people to feel confident in the safety
and efficacy of a COVID-19 vaccine once regulatory approval is granted.
AstraZeneca CEO expects to run
new global trial of COVID-19 vaccine - Bloomberg
November 26, 20204:55 PMBy Reuters Staff
(Reuters) - AstraZeneca is likely to run an additional
global trial to assess the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine using a lower
dosage, its chief executive was quoted as saying on Thursday amid questions
over the results of its late-stage study.
Instead of
adding the trial to an ongoing U.S. process, AstraZeneca might launch a fresh
study to evaluate a lower dosage of its vaccine that performed better than a
full dosage, Pascal Soriot told Bloomberg News.
“Now that
we’ve found what looks like a better efficacy we have to validate this, so we
need to do an additional study,” he said, adding that the new, likely global,
study could be faster because it would need fewer subjects as the efficacy was
already known to be high.
The news
comes as AstraZeneca faces questions about its success rate that some experts
say could hinder its chances of getting speedy U.S. and EU regulatory approval.
----
Soriot said he did not expect the additional trial to delay British and
European regulatory approvals.
Asked about
the Bloomberg report, an AstraZeneca spokesman said there was strong merit in
continuing to investigate the half-dose/full dose regimen. Any further insights
from the data would be added to those from existing trials that are being
prepared for regulatory submission, he said.
Running an
additional trial might not be too much of a complication for the British
drugmaker in the race to develop a vaccine to help tame the pandemic, which has
killed more than a million people and roiled the global economy.
Helen
Fletcher, professor of immunology at the London School of Hygiene &
Tropical Medicine, said another trial would not necessarily delay getting a
green light as efficacy in the higher dose regime still met the World Health
Organization’s target. It was not unusual to run new studies on approved
vaccines, she said.
Next, some very useful vaccine
links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and
northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern
hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually
expands back towards its winter maximum.
Over simplified, a rapid expansion of
both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving
northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of
the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record
Atlantic hurricane season.
Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month,
though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter.
Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in
mid-October.The Arctic sea ice
expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with
the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up.
With the Laptev sea ice virtually back
to normal, at the end of the third week of November I’m starting to think that
it will likely be a normal to slightly warmer winter ahead for western Europe.
The failure of the Kara Sea ice to return
to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and
graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting
sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st
century onwards.
Tree microbes could help crops
draw phosphorous from fertilized soil
Agricultural fertilizers typically contain
phosphorous, as it's essential to growing plants. Unfortunately, though, it can
become "locked" in the soil, and thus not available to crops. That
said, it turns out that the addition of a microbe could unlock it.
When applied
to crops as part of a fertilizer, phosphorous often reacts with minerals
already in the soil, forming chemical complexes with them. These complexes
can't be taken up by the plants' roots, so the phosphorous simply remains in
the dirt.
In order to
compensate for the problem, farmers will often apply excessive amounts of
fertilizer to the fields. Not only is this expensive, but much of that
fertilizer ends up running off into surrounding waterways, polluting them.
Led by Prof.
Sharon Doty, scientists at the University of Washington previously discovered
that root-dwelling microorganisms known as endophytes allow wild-growing trees
to pull phosphorous from the soil. This is true even of trees growing in rocky
soil alongside clear mountain-fed streams, where nutrients are in short supply.
In a more
recent study – conducted in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory – the researchers gathered endophytes from the roots of wild poplar
trees, and added them to soil in which phosphorous was locked within chemical
complexes.
It was found
that the microbes broke apart those complexes, making the phosphorous available
to poplar seedlings that had been planted in the dirt. Further testing
confirmed that the phosphorous had indeed been taken up by the plants, through
their roots.
The
scientists now hope that commercially grown endophytes could be mixed with the
soil amongst young plants, or even used to coat seeds prior to planting. Not
only could the microorganisms then keep freshly-applied phosphorous available
to the crops, but they could also free up phosphorous that was already locked
in the soil from previous growing seasons.
The endophyte strains used in the study have been licensed
to California-based company Intrinsyx Bio, with an eye toward
commercialization.
In another telegram to Hitler upon the fall of Paris a
month later, Wilhelm stated, "Congratulations, you have won using my
troops." In a letter to his daughter Victoria Louise, Duchess of
Brunswick, he wrote triumphantly,
"Thus is the pernicious Entente
Cordiale of Uncle Edward
VII brought to nought."[24]
In a letter of 1940 to his sister Princess Margaret of Prussia,
Wilhelm wrote: "The hand of God is creating a new world & working
miracles.... We are becoming the U.S. of Europe
under German leadership, a united European Continent."[20]
However, Wilhem's opinion of Hitler behind closed doors was much
less favourable. In a 1938 interview with Ken
magazine, he said of the dictator:
"There is a man alone, without family, without children,
without God...He builds legions but he doesn’t build a nation. A nation is
created by families, a religion, tradition: it is made up out of the hearts of
mothers, the wisdom of fathers, the joy and the exuberance of children. [Of
Germany under Hitler he says]...an all-swallowing State, disdainful of human
dignities and the ancient structure of our race, sets itself up in place of
everything else. And the man who, alone, incorporates in himself this whole
State, has neither a God to honour nor a dynasty to conserve, nor a past to
consult...
For a few months I was inclined to believe in National Socialism. I
thought of it as a necessary fever. And I was gratified to see that there were,
associated with it for a time, some of the wisest and most outstanding Germans.
But these, one by one, he has got rid of or even killed...He has left nothing
but a bunch of shirted gangsters...
This man could bring home victories to our people each year
without bringing them...glory...But of our Germany, which was a nation of poets
and musicians and artists and soldiers, he has made a nation of hysterics and
hermits, engulfed in a mob and led by a thousand liars or fanatics..."
Wilhelm von Hohenzollern. 15 December 1938[25]
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.