Wednesday, 10 June 2020

The Broadest Economic Collapse In 150 Years. Fed Day 2.


Baltic Dry Index. 714 +16   Brent Crude 40.58
Spot Gold 1716

Coronavirus Cases 10/6/20 World 7,368,422
Deaths 416,541

Washington (AFP) - The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a "swift and massive shock" that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said Monday.

Fed day two, and later today the Gospel according to Chairman Powell and the President Trump re-election committee. How high can he bid stocks by November 3rd?

Meanwhile according to the World Bank, we are in the midst of the broadest economic collapse in 150 years, just don’t let on to anyone in the stock casinos.

Time to sell out to Chairman Powell and his casino agents. Cash in while the cashing in’s still there! Pretty soon Chairman Powell will be the only greater fool buyer around.

Asian shares creep higher as markets wait for Fed

June 10, 2020 / 1:16 AM
SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian stock markets eked out a 10th consecutive session of gains on Wednesday, but momentum ebbed as doubts about the global recovery from the pandemic returned ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

The sideways moves in equities cap two weeks of stock market gains, turbocharged by Friday’s data showing a completely unexpected rise in U.S. employment last month. Safe havens from gold to the Japanese yen won support as optimism ebbed.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.1%. The yen JPY= held on to two days of big gains and commodity currencies nursed Tuesday's losses. Gold XAU= rose slightly.

Focus has switched to the Fed’s economic outlook and whether a steepening of the U.S. yield curve during last week’s bond market selloff might prompt intervention at longer tenors.

“The Fed tonight is a key variable in determining whether this is a pit-stop or U-turn,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

No action is expected from the Fed, but any hit of taking the foot off the pedal could hammer risk sentiment and lift the dollar.

The Fed’s economic projections, guidance as to how long and how low rates can be held down and the prospect of yield-curve control will be closely watched, Varathan said in a note.

A statement from the Fed is due at 1800 GMT followed by a news conference half an hour later and markets seem to be idling ahead of that. S&P 500 futures ESc1 rose 0.6% to recoup some of Tuesday’s losses, but other moves were smaller.
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Pandemic drives broadest economic collapse in 150 years: World Bank

Heather SCOTT,  AFP June 8, 2020
Washington (AFP) - The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a "swift and massive shock" that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said Monday.

The world economy is expected to contract by 5.2 percent this year -- the worst recession in 80 years -- but the sheer number of countries suffering economic losses means the scale of the downturn is worse than any recession in 150 years, the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

"This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges," said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

The depth of the crisis will drive 70 to 100 million people into extreme poverty -- worse than the prior estimate of 60 million, she told reporters.

And while the Washington-based development lender projects a rebound for 2021, there is a risk a second wave of outbreaks could undermine the recovery and turn the economic crisis into a financial one that will see a "wave of defaults."

Economists have been struggling to measure the impact of the crisis they have likened to a global natural disaster, but the sheer size of the impact across so many sectors and countries has made that difficult.

Under the worst-case scenario, the global recession could mean a contraction of eight percent, according to the report.

But Pazarbasioglu cautioned: "Given this uncertainty, further downgrades to the outlook are very likely."
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Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand.

A rip in the fabric of the economy won’t be healed easily, and denial of the severity of the crisis won’t solve it.
Published June 6, 2020Updated June 7, 2020

Despite it all — a nation on edge, with an untamed pandemic and convulsive protests over police brutality — for the first time in three months there is a scent of economic optimism in the air.
Employers added millions of jobs to their payrolls in May, and the jobless rate fell, a big surprise to forecasters who expected further losses. Businesses are reopening, and the rate of coronavirus deaths has edged down. The Trump administration has begun pointing to what are likely to be impressive growth numbers as the economy starts to pull out of its deep hole.

All of that is good news, and far better than the alternative of a continuing collapse in economic activity. But it also creates a risk: distraction and complacency.

---- But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years. If not contained, they could cause human misery on a mass scale and create lasting scars for families.

The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.

---- Consider those seemingly great new employment numbers. It is clear that many workers who were temporarily laid off in March and April returned to work in May, such as employees at once-closed restaurants that opened up, or construction workers who returned to job

But it still left the economy with 19.55 million fewer jobs than existed in February. And the rebound came in part thanks to more than $500 billion in federal aid to small businesses offered on the condition that workers be retained, under the Paycheck Protection Program.

Other data points to a severe but slower-moving crisis of collapsing demand that will affect many more corners of the economy than those that were forced to close because of the pandemic.

New orders for manufactured goods, for example, remained in starkly negative territory in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management; its index came in at 31.8, far below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.

And despite the net gain in employment in May, there have been many announced layoffs at companies outside sectors directly affected by the pandemic. This suggests that the forced shutdown of travel, restaurant and related industries is rippling out into a broad-based shortage of demand in the economy.

Consider just a partial list of large well-known companies unaffected by the direct first-round effects of pandemic-induced shutdowns, but which have since announced layoffs: Chevron, I.B.M. and Office Depot.

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office tried to put a number on the aggregate economic activity that will be lost over the next decade compared with what was projected at the start of the year. That number is $15.7 trillion, reflecting both less economic activity and deflationary forces that reduce prices.
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As Many as 25,000 U.S. Stores May Close in 2020, Mostly in Malls

June 9, 2020
(Bloomberg) -- As many as 25,000 U.S. stores could close permanently this year after the coronavirus pandemic devastated an industry where many mall-based retailers were already struggling.

The number would shatter the record set in 2019, when more than 9,800 stores closed their doors for good, according to a report from retail and tech data firm Coresight Research. Most of the closures are expected to occur in malls, with department stores and clothing shops predicted to be among the hardest hit.

“If the anchor tenants close stores in the mall, other tenants are likely to follow suit,” Coresight Chief Executive Officer Deborah Weinswig said in the report, which put the expected range at 20,000 to 25,000. “Department and large apparel-chain store closures in malls will therefore create a ripple effect that spells bad news for malls.”

The U.S. has the most retail selling space per capita of any country and the lowest sales per square feet, according to commercial real estate company Cushman & Wakefield. Most retailers have been reluctant to shrink their store networks, but the pandemic has forced many to rewrite their playbooks.

American retailers went dark in mid-March in response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and -- even though states are now beginning to ease restrictions -- many shops are still shuttered or only providing limited service. As of June 5, retailers have planned about 4,000 permanent store closures, including hundreds by J.C. Penney, Victoria’s Secret and Pier 1 Imports. In March, before the extent and duration of the virus lockdown was clear, Coresight estimated that about 15,000 stores would shutter in 2020.

Alongside the closures, the firm expects to see another spate of bankruptcies as debt-laden retailers are pushed over the edge.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/as-many-as-25000-us-stores-may-close-in-2020-mostly-in-malls/ar-BB15dNly

China's industrial deflation got worse in May

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