Baltic Dry Index. 923 +84 Brent Crude 37.95
Spot Gold 1729
Coronavirus Cases 15/6/20
World 8,039,175
Deaths 43,436
For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves
and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and
fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little
longer still.
Lord Keynes.
Poor
economic news out of China, plus an upswing in new coronavirus cases has global
stock markets under pressure this morning.
If
all the recent rioting, with its lack of masks and social distancing, did
generate a new spread of Covid-19 infections, we should start to see a rise in
new infections in the cities and towns where the rioting and looting took
place, starting this week and continuing probably onwards for another 3 to 4
weeks.
If
new coronavirus cases do surge, no amount Federal Reserve cash bungs to Wall
Street will trigger a “V” shaped real economy recovery.
For
the next few days and weeks, all we can do is wait.
Asian stocks, oil fall as second wave fears grow
June 15, 2020 /
2:05 AM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian shares stumbled on Monday and oil prices slipped as fears of
a second wave of coronavirus infections in Beijing sent investors scurrying for
safe-havens while underwhelming data from China further weighed on sentiment.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3%
with Australian shares off 0.1% and South Korea easing 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei
faltered 0.7%.
Chinese shares opened in the red with the blue-chip CSI300 index down
0.1%.
Monday’s losses follow a strong rally in global equities since late
March, fuelled by central bank and fiscal stimulus and optimism as countries
gradually lifted restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the novel
coronavirus.
“Any new outbreak will be looked at very, very cautiously by investors.
The market is putting into perspective that the COVID-19 issue has not been
resolved yet. It’s a reality check,” said James McGlew, analyst at stockbroker
Argonaut.
McGlew expects a further correction “as markets quantify what lies ahead
of us.”
The lead from Wall Street was also dour with e-minis for the S&P500
sinking 1.1% in early Asian trading.
Risk sentiment took a knock after Beijing recorded dozens of new
COVID-19 cases in recent days, all linked to a major wholesale food market.
Authorities have closed the centre and locked down nearby housing districts.
Investors are also fretting over a spike in cases in the United States
where more than 25,000 new cases were reported on Saturday.
More
China's May factory output rises less than expected
June 15, 2020 /
3:43 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s industrial output rose for a second straight
month in May but the gain was smaller than expected, suggesting the economy is
still struggling to get back on track after the coronavirus crisis.
Retail sales and investment continued to contract, pointing to an uneven
and possibly more drawn-out rebound in other sectors.
Global leaders are closely watching how long it takes China to get back
on its feet as they begin to relax their own stringent anti-virus measures and
reboot their economies.
Analysts say signs of improvement continue to be seen in China ranging
from steel production and car sales to more lights being turned on in
industrial parks. However, they warn it could take many months for broader
activity to return to pre-crisis levels.
Industrial output growth quickened to 4.4% in May from a year earlier,
the highest reading since December, official data showed on Monday. Analysts
polled by Reuters had expected a 5.0% rise from 3.9% in April, the first
expansion since the virus emerged in China late last year.
But a collapse in export orders amid global lockdowns has left factories
more reliant on domestic demand, which is recovering at a more sluggish pace.
Retail sales fell for a fourth straight month. While the 2.8% drop was
smaller than the 7.5% slump in April, it was larger than the 2.0% fall tipped
by analysts. Heavy job losses and fears of a second wave of infections continue
to make consumers cautious.
More
Strangely,
Chairman Powell and his bankster gang, never talk about this “no billionaire
left behind,” massive cash bung giveaway to Wall Street. Mere millionaires need
not apply.
The Fed Just Pulled Off Another Backdoor Bailout of Wall Street
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 10, 2020 ~The Federal Reserve has authorized 11 financial bailout programs thus far. Despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassurances at his press conferences that these programs are to help American families, a full 10 of these programs are actually bailouts of Wall Street banks or their trading units.
The latest Wall Street bank bailout to come out of hiding is the Fed’s Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF). This program was supposed to buy up corporate bonds in the secondary market in order to help corporate bond markets regain liquidity. Thus far, the only thing the SMCCF has bought up are Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) holding investment grade and junk-rated bonds.
The SMCCF program began operations on May 12. By May 18 the Fed had spent $1.58 billion buying up ETFs. The ultimate goal of the facility, at this point, is to spend $250 billion on ETFs and secondary market corporate bonds. The U.S. Treasury Department was supposed to hand over $25 billion of taxpayer money to eat losses on the SMCCF program. Instead, without explanation, the latest data from the Fed shows that the Treasury deposited $37.5 billion into the SMCCF, suggesting the program is expecting losses of greater than $25 billion.
The bulk of the purchases of ETFs were those issued by BlackRock, the
company to whom the New York Fed has outsourced the program. The Fed is
allowing BlackRock to buy up its own, previously sinking, ETFs as well as those
of other ETF issuers. The New York Fed gave BlackRock a no-bid contract to run
the program as investment manager. But that’s far from the only outrage.
Here’s where you need to pay close attention. The Fed released a list of
the Wall Street firms that are selling these ETFs to the Fed’s bailout
facility. (See chart above.) The majority of the sellers just happen to be the
very same firms that create these ETFs under the title of “Authorized
Participants.”
We’ll let James Chen of Investopedia explain what function “Authorized
Participants” perform for an ETF. He writes as follows:
“Authorized participants (AP) are one of the major parties at the center
of the creation and redemption process for exchange-traded funds (ETF). They
provide a large portion of liquidity in the ETF market by obtaining the
underlying assets required to create a fund. When there is a shortage of shares
in the market, the authorized participant creates more. Conversely, the
authorized participant will reduce shares in circulation when supply [exceeds]
demand. This can be done with the creation and redemption mechanism that keeps
share prices aligned with its underlying net asset value (NAV).
“Authorized participants are responsible for acquiring the
securities that the ETF wants to hold…In return, authorized participants
receive a block of equally valued shares called a creation unit. Issuers can
use the services of one or more authorized participants for a fund. Large
and active funds tend to have a greater number of authorized participants. This
also differs between various types of funds. Equities, on average, have more
participants than bonds, perhaps due to greater trading volume.
“Traditionally, authorized participants are large banks like Bank of
America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley
(MS), among others. They do not receive compensation from a sponsor and have no
legal obligation to redeem or create the ETF’s shares. Instead, authorized
participants are compensated through activity in the secondary market or
service fees collected from clients yearning to execute primary trades.”
That phrase in the above paragraph, highlighting that authorized
participants “have no legal obligation to redeem or create the ETF’s shares” is
part of the train wreck that is happening right now on Wall Street.
----If,
as the authors suggest, money market funds are holding bond ETFs as cash
substitutes and they have now become illiquid, this may explain why the Fed had
to also establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility which has, as
of last Wednesday, bailed out $29.86 billion of assets that no one else wanted.
More
America’s currency is losing its exceptionalism
By Brooke
Sample June 13, 2020, 1:00 PM GMT+1
A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming — Stephen Roach
The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. France’s then-finance minister Valery Giscard d’Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a U.S. that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its overextended standard of living. For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. Those days are over.Already stressed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. living standards are about to be squeezed as never before. At the same time, the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism. Currencies set the equilibrium between these two forces — domestic economic fundamentals and foreign perceptions of a nation’s strength or weakness. The balance is shifting, and a crash in the dollar could well be in the offing.
More
Finally,
is Covid-19 about to kill off some of the commodity markets?
Column: Knives out for nickel market as restaurants close
June 12, 2020 /
2:57 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -
The knives may be out for the nickel market.
Stainless steel knives specifically, together with stainless steel forks
and spoons.
COVID-19 has hit just about every aspect of the global economy but the
hospitality business is one of the worst affected.
A wave of restaurant closures in the developed world would generate a
surge of unwanted cutlery. If 20% of restaurants closed, it would translate to
around 80,000 tonnes of stainless steel scrap containing 24,000 tonnes of
nickel, according to analysts at Citi.
That’s the equivalent of a medium-sized production plant such as
Glencore’s Koniambo facility in New Caledonia.
Citi’s calculation is based on the fact that kitchenware is still one of
the main drivers of stainless steel consumption. And stainless steel remains
the key driver of nickel demand despite the future promise of usage in
lithium-ion batteries.
The focus on what happens to the restaurant sector in a post-coronavirus
world is symptomatic of a shift in nickel market narrative from supply to
demand disruption.
The title of Citi’s research note, “Nickel’s unfavorable end-use demand
outlook” (May 27, 2020), tells you the bank isn’t that enthusiastic about the
metal’s prospects.
London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel collapsed from more than $14,000 per
tonne at the start of January to a coronavirus-induced low of $10,865 in March.
It has since recovered to a current $12,780, part of a broader
bounce-back in the industrial metals complex thanks to massive government
stimulus and optimism about China, the world’s biggest metals user.
Supply-side disruption due to lockdowns has played its part with several
major nickel producers curtailing or closing operations over March and April.
However, as lockdowns ease, supply chains are normalising. The largest
ongoing outage is at Sumitomo’s Ambatovy operations in Madagascar.
----Other key stainless end-users are in the aerospace and oil and gas industries, both of which are also expected to experience a drawn-out recovery.
The three sectors between them account for around 23% of total nickel
end-usage and prolonged weakness will feed into a 15% fall in demand this year
with the disruption rolling into next year, according to Citi.
The bank wraps its gloomy demand prognosis into a forecast that nickel
could be set for “three years of large surplus and a considerable stock
overhang.”
More
"I never did anything by accident, nor did any of my
inventions come by accident; they came by work."
Thomas Edison.
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
Asymptomatic transmission of coronavirus appears to be worse than SARS or influenza — 5 reasons you should care
Published: June 12, 2020 at 12:22 a.m. ET
How worried should you be about asymptomatic transmission
of COVID-19?The World Health Organization on Tuesday attempted to clarify comments made just 24 hours earlier that transmission of the novel coronavirus in carriers who don’t show apparent symptoms happened in “very rare” cases.
Maria Van Kerkhove said it was a “misunderstanding to state that asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare,” and that her comments during Monday’s WHO news briefing had been based on “a very small subset of studies.” “I was just responding to a question; I wasn’t stating a policy of WHO,” she said.
The WHO currently estimates that 16% of people with COVID-19 are
asymptomatic and can transmit the coronavirus, while other data show that 40%
of coronavirus transmission is due to carriers not displaying symptoms of the
illness.
Public-health officials have advised people to keep a distance of six
feet from one another. Face masks are designed to prevent the wearer, who may
be infected with COVID-19 but have very mild or no symptoms, from spreading
invisible droplets to another person and thereby infecting them too.
But “there’s nothing magic about six feet,” said Gregory Poland, who
studies the immunogenetics of vaccine response in adults and children at the
Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., and is an expert with the Infectious Diseases
Society of America.
“The virus can’t measure,” he told MarketWatch. “For example, the viral
cloud while speaking will extend 27 feet and linger in the air for about 30
minutes. This is more like influenza in the sense that people transmit the
virus prior to experiencing any symptoms and some people, of course, will not
get sick.”
Also see:Yes, America needs to brace itself for a second wave of coronavirus
Asymptomatic transmission “is the Achilles’ heel of COVID-19 pandemic control through the public-health strategies we have currently deployed,” according to a study by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco published May 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine.
“Symptom-based screening has utility, but epidemiologic evaluations of COVID-19 outbreaks within skilled nursing facilities ... strongly demonstrate that our current approaches are inadequate,” researchers Monica Gandhi, Deborah Yokoe and Diane Havlir wrote.
More
China reports 49 new COVID-19 cases for June 14; 36 in Beijing
June 15, 2020 /
1:27 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Mainland China reported 49 new confirmed COVID-19
cases for June 14, down from 57 a day earlier, the national health authority
said on Monday.
The National Health Commission (NHC) said in a statement that 39 of the
new confirmed cases were locally transmitted.
Thirty-six of the new cases were in Beijing, the same number reported
for the capital a day earlier and tied for the highest daily infection count
for the city since authorities started releasing data.
The NHC reported 10 new imported coronavirus cases in mainland China as
of the end of June 14, down from 19 a day earlier. The commission also reported
18 new asymptomatic cases, up from nine a day earlier.
The total number of COVID-19 cases in mainland China now stands at
83,181. The death toll remains unchanged at 4,634.
China does not count asymptomatic patients, who are infected with the
virus but do not display symptoms, as confirmed cases.
China Cases Jump; IMF to Further Lower Forecast: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
June 13, 2020, 10:51 PM GMT+1 Updated on June 14, 2020,
7:59 AM GMT+1
China cases jumped the most in almost two months as Beijing
shut
a major food market and nearby housing districts amid fears of a resurgence of
the coronavirus.The International Monetary Fund expects to further revise down its forecast for the global economy this year. U.S. cases rose at the fastest pace in two weeks while Brazil’s infections increased 2.6% and deaths climbed 2.1%.
AstraZeneca Plc pledged 400 million doses of Oxford University’s vaccine at no profit. Pfizer’s CEO expects a vaccine by October. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. has a deal with Gilead Sciences Inc. for Remdesivir. and Sinovac Biotech Ltd. said its coronavirus shot is safe.
----Key Developments:
- Virus Tracker: Cases pass 7.7 million; deaths exceed 428,000
- Beijing shuts biggest vegetable market after 45 cases
- Businesses transformed by Covid-19 plan to keep the changes
- Asia’s densest slum has become a model for beating the virus
- As lockdown lifts, New York City still longs for its old self
- How a “second wave” sparks renewed pandemic fears
More
Tokyo reports 47 new daily coronavirus infections
Today
04:35 pm JST
TOKYO The
Tokyo metropolitan government on Sunday confirmed 47 new coronavirus
infections, Tokyo Gov Yuriko Koike said.
Of the daily figure, 18 people were traced to nightlife establishments.
"Just because something doesn't do what you planned it to
do doesn't mean it's useless."
Thomas Edison.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
"Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish
something."
Thomas Edison.
Scientists apply 'twistronics' to light propagation and make a breakthrough discovery
Promising pathway for leapfrog advancement in imaging, optical-computing technologies, biosensing and more
Date:
June 11, 2020
Source:
Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY
Summary:
A research team has employed ''twistronics'' concepts (the science of layering
and twisting two-dimensional materials to control their electrical properties)
to manipulate the flow of light in extreme ways. The findings hold the promise
for leapfrog advances in a variety of light-driven technologies, including
nano-imaging devices; high-speed, low-energy optical computers; and biosensors.
A research team led by scientists at the Advanced Science Research
Center at The Graduate Center, CUNY (CUNY ASRC), in collaboration with National
University of Singapore, University of Texas at Austin and Monash University,
has employed "twistronics" concepts (the science of layering and
twisting two-dimensional materials to control their electrical properties) to
manipulate the flow of light in extreme ways. The findings, published in the
journal Nature, hold the promise for leapfrog advances in a variety of
light-driven technologies, including nano-imaging devices; high-speed,
low-energy optical computers; and biosensors.
The team took inspiration from the recent discovery of superconductivity
in a pair of stacked graphene layers that were rotated to the "magic twist
angle" of 1.1 degrees. In this configuration, electrons flow with no
resistance. Separately, each graphene layer shows no special electrical
properties. The discovery has shown how the careful control of rotational
symmetries can unveil unexpected material responses.
The research team discovered that an analogous principle can be applied
to manipulate light in highly unusual ways. At a specific rotation angle
between two ultrathin layers of molybdenum trioxide, the researchers were able
to prevent optical diffraction and enable robust light propagation in a tightly
focused beam at desired wavelengths.
----"While
photons -- the quanta of light -- have very different physical properties than
electrons, we have been intrigued by the emerging discovery of twistronics, and
have been wondering if twisted two-dimensional materials may also provide unusual
transport properties for light, to benefit photon-based technologies,"
said Andrea Alù, founding director of the CUNY ASRC's Photonics Initiative and
Einstein Professor of Physics at The Graduate Center. "To unveil this
phenomenon, we used thin layers of molybdenum trioxide. By stacking two of such
layers on top of each other and controlling their relative rotation, we have
observed dramatic control of the light guiding properties. At the photonic
magic angle, light does not diffract, and it propagates very confined along
straight lines.
This is an ideal feature for nanoscience and photonic
technologies."
More
Is 15 June 1215 the true date of Magna Carta?
In 1215, King John sealed Magna Carta, a document that
safeguarded basic freedoms and placed limits on the power of the crown. The
event was a turning point in British constitutional history, but are we marking
its anniversary on the correct date?
----The date 15 June seems fixed by Magna
Carta itself. King John ends the Charter by stating that it has been “given by
our hand in the meadow which is called Runnymede between Windsor and Staines on
the 15th day of June in the 17th year of our reign”.
But,
but, much more.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 25,383 +12 Down. NASDAQ: 9,490 +178 Up.
SP500: 3,044 +83 Down.
The NASDAQ has remained up.
The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed
to get them to go higher.
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