Baltic Dry Index. 679 +47 Brent Crude 43.12
Spot Gold 1689
Coronavirus Cases 08/6/20
World 7,136,365
Deaths 409,005
There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous
to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the
introduction of a new order of things.
Niccolo Machiavelli
Today we go off our
usual topics, suggesting that we stand at a crossroads with a chance to reform,
and reign in the central bankster, fiat currency fuelled, financialised,
gambling global economy, and all the wealth inequalities it generates. But will
we seize the opportunity at hand or merely wait for the next Lehman to hit?
But first, brief
coverage of our financialised gambling economy continuing its disconnect from
reality.
World shares advance on surprise U.S. job recovery, oil steadies
June 8, 2020 /
1:21 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Global share prices edged higher on Monday after a surprise recovery in U.S.
employment provided cause for optimism that global economies could quickly
revive after many weeks of lockdowns aimed at controlling the coronavirus
pandemic.
Oil prices erased earlier gains to stand almost flat after OPEC and its
allies, including Russia, agreed to extend record oil production cuts until the
end of July.
U.S. S&P 500 futures rose as much as 0.8% to stand near their
highest since late February before giving up a bulk of gains to last stand up
0.2% while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%,
extending its bull run to an eighth consecutive day.
---- “Lockdowns are getting lifted around the world and I can see how that is cheering up the mood. But on the other hand, you can’t keep pushing up multiples forever,” said Masaru Ishibashi, joint general manager of trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.
“I think many market players are scratching their head as to how to
interpret markets these days.”
MSCI ACWI, an index covering 49 markets around the world, has risen to
levels last seen in late February. But it is trading at 17.6 times forecast
earnings over the next 12 months, the highest in almost two decades.
The jobs data also bumped up U.S. bond yields, with the 10-year
Treasuries yield rising to as high as 0.959% on Friday, a level last seen in
mid-March. It last stood at 0.897%.
The sharp gains in U.S. bond yields over the past couple of days put
more focus on the U.S. central bank, which will hold a two-day policy meeting
ending on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the U.S. economy could feel
the weight of the economic shutdown for more than a year.
Chinese trade data published on Sunday also revealed the impact from the
coronavirus crisis.
More
Japan's first-quarter GDP shrinks less than initial estimate but still faces steep recession
June 8, 2020 /
1:02 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Japan’s economy shrank less than initially estimated in the first quarter but
the broad impact from the coronavirus crisis is still expected to send the
country deeper into recession.
A series of recent April data including exports, factory output and jobs
figures suggested Japan is facing its worst postwar slump in the current
quarter as the outbreak forced people to stay at home and businesses to close
globally.
The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualised 2.2% in
January-March, revised data showed on Monday, less than the 3.4% contraction
indicated in a preliminary reading and compared with a median market forecast
of a 2.1% drop.
The revised data confirmed Japan had slipped into recession for the
first time in 4-1/2 years, after a 7.2% contraction in October-December,
pressured by last year’s sales tax hike and the U.S.-China trade war.
Recessions are defined as two straight quarters of contraction.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted 0.6% in the first
quarter compared with an initial reading of a 0.9% decline.
Business spending showed gains after the finance ministry’s survey
earlier this month, which was used to calculate the revised gross domestic
product, drew fewer respondents than usual. Spending is expected to falter in
coming months.
More
China May exports slip back into contraction, imports worst in 4 years
June 7, 2020 /
5:30 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- China’s exports contracted in May as global coronavirus lockdowns continued
to devastate demand, while a sharper-than-expected fall in imports pointed to
mounting pressure on manufacturers as global growth stalls.
The sombre trade readings for the world’s second-biggest economy could
pile pressure on policymakers to roll out more support for a sector that is
critical to the livelihoods of more than 180 million workers. Total trade
accounts for about a third of the economy.
Overseas shipments in May fell 3.3% from a year earlier, after a
surprising 3.5% gain in April, customs data showed on Sunday. That compared
with a 7% drop forecast in a Reuters poll.
While exports fared slightly better than expected, imports tumbled 16.7%
compared with a year earlier, worsening from a 14.2% decline the previous month
and marking the sharpest decline since January 2016.
It had been expected to fall 9.7% in May.
“Exports benefited from the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) market and exchange rate depreciation, while imports were affected by
insufficient domestic demand and commodity price declines,” said Wang Jun,
chief economist of Zhongyuan Bank.
As a result, China posted a record trade surplus of $62.93 billion last
month, the highest since Reuters started tracking the series in 1981, compared
with the poll’s forecast for a $39 billion surplus and $45.34 billion surplus
in April.
China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to $27.89 billion
in May, Reuters calculation based on customs data showed.
More
Finally,
something a little off our usual topics.
Are
the black economists right?
In my opinion yes, but also this is what happens to society, on the
Great Nixonian Error of fiat money. The financialised economy, the gambling
economy that preys on everyone else, the financiers, and bust out banksters get
massive taxpayer bailouts via the Federal Reserve, everyone else gets the bill,
which traps those at the bottom almost permanently at the bottom. The GNE
accelerated the wealth gap between the 1 percent and the hapless, powerless
muppets in the other 99 percent.
Exactly
as classical economics predicts for a fiat currency outcome.
Add
in over aggressive enforcement reaction following the terrible events of 9/11,
a Minneapolis police department where the Democrat politicians surrendered
control to the union, and a profile of just who George Floyd was, and the
protesting in America and elsewhere comes more into focus.
While
nothing excuses rioting, arson and looting, racism, plus a root cause in wealth inequality
fuelled by fiat money and a financialised economy forever bailed out by the Fed,
generate inherent social instability. Instability communists and anarchists will
plot to exploit.
The only way to truly solve the race problem in America is to narrow the wealth gap, black economists say
Published: June 6, 2020 at 5:37 p.m. ET
The unrest in cities across the U.S. this week is just the latest
manifestation of a struggle that will continue until the wealth gap between
white people and black people is addressed, black economists said.
What is the wealth gap? It is the stark divide between how much capital
white people and black people control.
By one estimate, the typical white family has wealth of $171,000. This
is nearly ten times greater than the $17,150 for an average black family.
Put another way, the typical black household remains poorer than 80% of
white households.
This stunning wealth gap between the races has persisted, in good times
and bad, for the past 70 years. It did not get better after the civil rights
era legislation was passed in the 1960s or during the Obama administration.
And it will continue to fuel unrest, economists said.
“As long as we have racial wealth gap, we’re going to have a problems
with race,” said Patrick Mason, an economics professor at Florida State
University.
“The wealth gap is one of the reasons there are protests today,” said
Linwood Tauheed, a professor of economics at The University of Missouri-Kansas
City and the president of the National Economics Association.
“I don’t necessarily want to use the phase it was the straw that broke
the camels back...but we have lots of evidence that this economic system is not
benefitting the majority of the population,“ he said.
More
Minneapolis Police Use Force Against Black People at 7 Times the Rate of Whites
Video of George Floyd’s last conscious moments
horrified the nation, spurring protests that have led to curfews and National
Guard interventions in many large cities.
But for the black community in Minneapolis — where Mr. Floyd
died after an officer pressed a knee into his neck for 8 minutes 46 seconds —
seeing the police use some measure of force is disturbingly common.
About 20 percent of Minneapolis’s
population of 430,000 is black. But when the police get physical — with kicks,
neck holds, punches, shoves, takedowns, Mace, Tasers or other forms of muscle —
nearly 60 percent of the time the person subject to that force is black. And
that is according to the city’s own figures.
----Since 2015, the Minneapolis police have documented using
force about 11,500 times. For at least 6,650 acts of force, the subject of that
force was black.
By comparison, the police have used force about 2,750 times
against white people, who make up about 60
percent of the population.
More
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/03/us/minneapolis-police-use-of-force.html
Special Report: How union, Supreme Court shield Minneapolis cops
June 4, 2020 /
5:11 PM
(Reuters) - Long
before the death of George Floyd last week, efforts to overhaul the way
policing is done in Minneapolis repeatedly fizzled in the face of a powerful
800-member union that championed military-style police tactics.
The union’s labor contract with the city is a formidable roadblock to
citizens seeking disciplinary action after aggressive encounters with police.
Led by Lieutenant Bob Kroll, the union’s vocal and hard-charging president for
five years, officers rarely face sanctions, Reuters has found.
A Reuters analysis of complaints against Minneapolis police officers
from the past eight years shows that 9 of every 10 accusations of misconduct
were resolved without punishment or intervention aimed at changing an officer’s
behavior. The analysis covers about 3,000 complaints during that period; five
officers were fired.
The Minneapolis union contract is not unusual. Dozens of other contracts
across the United States contain provisions that stymie efforts to hold cops
accountable for violence and other alleged abuses, a 2017 Reuters investigation
found. The news agency examined contracts in 82 cities for that article and
found that 46 required departments to erase disciplinary records, some after
just six months. The absence of a paper trail makes firing officers with a
history of abuses difficult, lawyers and police chiefs say.
Compounding the challenge for citizens seeking justice: a U.S. legal
doctrine called qualified immunity. A Reuters investigation last month found
that the concept, created and reinforced in a series of U.S. Supreme Court
rulings, increasingly shields from civil liability officers who are accused of
using excessive force.
More
Bust the Police Unions to Rank and Yank Bad Cops
Officials need the ability to fire low-performing officers and reward ones who go above and beyond.
June 5, 2020 7:43 pm ET
Public-sector unions, including police unions, will do almost anything to protect their members. These unions create a culture of impunity. Even police officers who are terminated can be reinstated, “often via secretive appeals geared to protect labor rights rather than public safety” as a 2014 piece in the Atlantic put it.
The Minneapolis police union has signaled it will fight to
ensure the officers fired over George Floyd’s killing get their jobs back. The
union’s Lt. Bob Kroll said he’d “worked with the four defense attorneys that
are representing each of our four terminated individuals under criminal
investigation, in addition with our labor attorneys to fight for their jobs.”
This should be a warning of the difficulties inherent in reforming police
departments and ending police violence.
But it is clearly time to rethink public-sector unions, and one good
place to start would be more and better information. There will be no
improvement until officers are no longer protected at all costs by unions.
Take an example from Canada. In 2017, the Fraser Institute found that
employees in Canada’s private economy were five times as likely to be removed
from their jobs as public-sector employees were. Public-sector workers were
almost five times as likely to be unionized.
Increasing turnover of public-sector jobs could help root out toxic
employees. A first step would be to let go of the lowest-performing 2% of
public-sector workers—in this case, police officers—each year. That would help
ensure that the most violent, disrespectful and incompetent officers are
dismissed each year.
More
George Floyd Left a Gospel Legacy in Houston
As a person of peace, “Big Floyd” opened up
ministry opportunities in the Third Ward housing projects.
May
28, 2020 6:00 PM
The
rest of the country knows George Floyd from several minutes of cell phone
footage captured during his final hours. But in Houston’s Third Ward, they know
Floyd for how he lived for decades—a mentor to a generation of young men and a
“person of peace” ushering ministries into the area.
Before
moving to Minneapolis for a job opportunity through a Christian work program,
the 46-year-old spent almost his entire life in the historically black Third
Ward, where he was called “Big Floyd” and regarded as an “OG,” a de-facto
community leader and elder statesmen, his ministry partners say.
Floyd
spoke
of breaking the cycle of violence he saw among young people and used his
influence to bring outside ministries to the area to do discipleship and
outreach, particularly in the Cuney Homes housing project, locally known as
“the Bricks.”
“George Floyd was a person of peace sent from the Lord that helped the
gospel go forward in a place that I never lived in,” said Patrick PT Ngwolo,
pastor of Resurrection Houston, which held services at Cuney.
“The platform for us to reach that neighborhood and the hundreds of
people we reached through that time and up to now was built on the backs of
people like Floyd,” he told Christianity Today.
More
https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2020/may/george-floyd-ministry-houston-third-ward-church.html
The beginning of reform is not so much to equalize property as
to train the noble sort of natures not to desire more, and to prevent the lower
from getting more.
Aristotle
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
CDC reports 1,920,904 coronavirus cases in United States
June 7, 2020 /
7:25 PM
(Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) on Sunday reported 1,920,904 cases of new coronavirus, an
increase of 29,214 cases from its previous count, and said COVID-19 deaths in
the United States had risen by 709 to 109,901. The CDC reported its tally of cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, as of 4 p.m. EDT on June 6. Its previous tally was released on Friday. (bit.ly/2UkMHx9)
The CDC figures do not necessarily reflect cases reported by individual states.
The Top Doctor Who Aced the Coronavirus Test
Dr. Bonnie Henry kept the disease in check in British
Columbia without harsh enforcement methods. Now, she is leading the way out of
lockdown.
That Tuesday in March was the
day Bonnie Henry had been preparing for her whole life.
Overnight, 83 people had tested positive for the novel coronavirus and
three more had died. The pandemic had officially broken out in British
Columbia.
Standing inside the provincial legislature’s press gallery, the
preternaturally calm top doctor of Canada’s westernmost province declared a
public health emergency. Under her orders and recommendations, schools closed,
bars shuttered and social distancing measures were put in place.
“It seemed so surreal,” she said. “I felt like someone was standing on
my chest.”
That day, March 17, Dr. Henry ended her presentation with a line that
would become her trademark, and a mantra for many Canadians struggling to cope
under a lockdown. It has since been hung in windows, painted on streets,
printed on T-shirts, stitched on shoes, folded into songs and stamped on
bracelets.
“This is our time to be kind,” she said in her slow and low-pitched
voice that many call comforting, “to be calm and to be safe.”
In the next few months, Dr. Henry would prove to be one of the most
effective public health officials in the world, with lessons for nations
struggling to emerge from lockdowns.
While Ontario and Quebec, the two most populous provinces, are still
grappling with hundreds of new cases every day, British Columbia has now
reopened schools, restaurants and hair salons. This week, the province of five
million reported fewer than 80 new cases.
“By all rights, British Columbia should have been clobbered,” said Colin
Furness, an outspoken infection control epidemiologist in Toronto. The province
is on the coast, above Washington State, he noted, with a large population that
travels back and forth to China, where the outbreak began.
“They took decisive action, did it early without hesitation and
communicated effectively,” Mr. Furness added. “People listened to her.”
----Taking a rare break in her Victoria living room,
wearing one of the many T-shirts emblazoned with her image sent by a fan, Dr.
Henry said in a video interview that she is both heartened and frightened by
her sudden fame. She is an introvert, used to working in relative obscurity.
She wears her now famous collection of quirky shoes by a Canadian
designer, John Fluevog, for “a bit of confidence.”
But she allowed that a 30-year medical career as a female
fleet medical officer tending to 1,000 men at sea, a family doctor at an urban
California clinic, an epidemiologist setting up quarantines for families
exposed to Ebola in Uganda and the operational leader of Toronto’s response to
the lethal SARS outbreak in 2003 prepared her well for this moment.
More
Ocean Park, Disneyland to reopen soon as commerce secretary pledges reboot for Hong Kong’s economy on back of tourism, trade
·
Commerce secretary Edward Yau says city ready to
begin pushing for return of trade shows and conventions as well, starting with
the Hong Kong Book Fair
·
Ocean Park will once again be open to visitors
from Saturday, though a firm date is not yet locked in for Disneyland
Published:
12:48pm, 8 Jun, 2020
Hong Kong’s two major theme parks will be reopened imminently as a key
step in rebooting an economy reeling from the triple whammy of social unrest,
the US-China trade war and the coronavirus pandemic.
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah
revealed on Monday that Ocean Park will greet guests on Saturday for the first
time since closing on January 26 amid the pandemic. The Disneyland resort on
Lantau Island will also resume operations soon, though a specific date has not
been released.
Additionally, conventions and trade shows – almost completely absent in
the first half of this year due to the public health crisis – will stage a
comeback in July, with the much-loved Hong Kong Book Fair leading the way, he
said.
“We want to reboot the economy in the second half of this year through
new initiatives in tourism, external trade and trade insurance services,” Yau
said. “We are confident we will ride out the economic doldrums.”
Hong Kong’s economy faces fresh challenges now that the United States
has pledged to remove special trading privileges in response to Beijing’s
planned security law for the city. The future holds the possibility of trade
tariffs, more restrictions on technology transfers and policy changes on
currency and visas.
More
“Every reform movement has a
lunatic fringe.”
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
A remote control for neurons
Date:
June 1, 2020
Source:
College of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University
Summary:
Researchers have created a new technology that enhances scientists' ability to
communicate with neural cells using light. The team synthesized
three-dimensional fuzzy graphene on a nanowire template to create a superior
material for photothermally stimulating cells.
A team led by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University has created a
new technology that enhances scientists' ability to communicate with neural
cells using light. Tzahi Cohen-Karni, associate professor of biomedical
engineering and materials science and engineering, led a team that synthesized
three-dimensional fuzzy graphene on a nanowire template to create a superior
material for photothermally stimulating cells. NW-templated three-dimensional
(3D) fuzzy graphene (NT-3DFG) enables remote optical stimulation without need
for genetic modification and uses orders of magnitude less energy than
available materials, preventing cellular stress.
Graphene is abundant, cheap, and biocompatible. Cohen-Karni's lab has
been working with graphene for several years, developing a technique of
synthesizing the material in 3D topologies that he's labeled "fuzzy"
graphene. By growing two-dimensional (2D) graphene flakes out-of-plane on a
silicon nanowire structure, they're able to create a 3D structure with
broadband optical absorption and unparalleled photothermal efficiency.
These properties make it ideal for cellular electrophysiology modulation
using light through the optocapacitive effect. The optocapacitive effect alters
the cell membrane capacitance due to rapidly applied light pulses. NT-3DFG can
be readily made in suspension, allowing the study of cell signaling within and
between both 2D cell systems and 3D, like human cell-based organoids.
Systems like these are not only crucial to understanding how cells
signal and interact with each other, but also hold great potential for the
development of new, therapeutic interventions. Exploration into these opportunities,
however, has been limited by the risk of cellular stress that existing optical
remote-control technologies present. The use of NT-3DFG eliminates this risk by
using significantly less energy, on a scale of 1-2 orders of magnitude less.
Its biocompatible surface is easy to modify chemically, making it versatile for
use with different cell types and environments. Using NT-3DFG, photothermal
stimulation treatments could be developed for motor recruitment to induce
muscle activation or could direct tissue development in an organoid system.
"This is an outstanding collaborative work of experts from multiple
fields, including neuroscience through Pitt and UChicago, and photonics and
materials science through UNC and CMU," said Cohen-Karni. "The developed
technology will allow us to interact with either engineered tissues or with
nerve or muscle tissue in vivo. This will allow us to control and affect tissue
functionality using light remotely with high precision and low needed
energies."
More
A party of order or stability, and a party of progress or
reform, are both necessary elements of a healthy state of political life.
John Stuart Mill
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 25,383 +12 Down. NASDAQ: 9,490 +178 Up.
SP500: 3,044 +83 Down.
The NASDAQ has remained up.
The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed
to get them to higher.
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