Monday, 8 June 2020

Off Topic Monday. A Chance To Reform?


Baltic Dry Index. 679 +47   Brent Crude 43.12
Spot Gold 1689

Coronavirus Cases 08/6/20 World 7,136,365
Deaths 409,005

There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Today we go off our usual topics, suggesting that we stand at a crossroads with a chance to reform, and reign in the central bankster, fiat currency fuelled, financialised, gambling global economy, and all the wealth inequalities it generates. But will we seize the opportunity at hand or merely wait for the next Lehman to hit?

But first, brief coverage of our financialised gambling economy continuing its disconnect from reality.

World shares advance on surprise U.S. job recovery, oil steadies

June 8, 2020 / 1:21 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Global share prices edged higher on Monday after a surprise recovery in U.S. employment provided cause for optimism that global economies could quickly revive after many weeks of lockdowns aimed at controlling the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil prices erased earlier gains to stand almost flat after OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to extend record oil production cuts until the end of July.

U.S. S&P 500 futures rose as much as 0.8% to stand near their highest since late February before giving up a bulk of gains to last stand up 0.2% while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%, extending its bull run to an eighth consecutive day.

---- “Lockdowns are getting lifted around the world and I can see how that is cheering up the mood. But on the other hand, you can’t keep pushing up multiples forever,” said Masaru Ishibashi, joint general manager of trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

“I think many market players are scratching their head as to how to interpret markets these days.”
MSCI ACWI, an index covering 49 markets around the world, has risen to levels last seen in late February. But it is trading at 17.6 times forecast earnings over the next 12 months, the highest in almost two decades.

The jobs data also bumped up U.S. bond yields, with the 10-year Treasuries yield rising to as high as 0.959% on Friday, a level last seen in mid-March. It last stood at 0.897%.

The sharp gains in U.S. bond yields over the past couple of days put more focus on the U.S. central bank, which will hold a two-day policy meeting ending on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the U.S. economy could feel the weight of the economic shutdown for more than a year.

Chinese trade data published on Sunday also revealed the impact from the coronavirus crisis.
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Japan's first-quarter GDP shrinks less than initial estimate but still faces steep recession

June 8, 2020 / 1:02 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s economy shrank less than initially estimated in the first quarter but the broad impact from the coronavirus crisis is still expected to send the country deeper into recession.

A series of recent April data including exports, factory output and jobs figures suggested Japan is facing its worst postwar slump in the current quarter as the outbreak forced people to stay at home and businesses to close globally. 

The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualised 2.2% in January-March, revised data showed on Monday, less than the 3.4% contraction indicated in a preliminary reading and compared with a median market forecast of a 2.1% drop.

The revised data confirmed Japan had slipped into recession for the first time in 4-1/2 years, after a 7.2% contraction in October-December, pressured by last year’s sales tax hike and the U.S.-China trade war. Recessions are defined as two straight quarters of contraction.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted 0.6% in the first quarter compared with an initial reading of a 0.9% decline.

Business spending showed gains after the finance ministry’s survey earlier this month, which was used to calculate the revised gross domestic product, drew fewer respondents than usual. Spending is expected to falter in coming months.
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China May exports slip back into contraction, imports worst in 4 years

June 7, 2020 / 5:30 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports contracted in May as global coronavirus lockdowns continued to devastate demand, while a sharper-than-expected fall in imports pointed to mounting pressure on manufacturers as global growth stalls.

The sombre trade readings for the world’s second-biggest economy could pile pressure on policymakers to roll out more support for a sector that is critical to the livelihoods of more than 180 million workers. Total trade accounts for about a third of the economy. 

Overseas shipments in May fell 3.3% from a year earlier, after a surprising 3.5% gain in April, customs data showed on Sunday. That compared with a 7% drop forecast in a Reuters poll.

While exports fared slightly better than expected, imports tumbled 16.7% compared with a year earlier, worsening from a 14.2% decline the previous month and marking the sharpest decline since January 2016.

It had been expected to fall 9.7% in May.

“Exports benefited from the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) market and exchange rate depreciation, while imports were affected by insufficient domestic demand and commodity price declines,” said Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan Bank.

As a result, China posted a record trade surplus of $62.93 billion last month, the highest since Reuters started tracking the series in 1981, compared with the poll’s forecast for a $39 billion surplus and $45.34 billion surplus in April.

China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to $27.89 billion in May, Reuters calculation based on customs data showed.
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Finally, something a little off our usual topics. 

Are the black economists right? 

In my opinion yes, but also this is what happens to society, on the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money. The financialised economy, the gambling economy that preys on everyone else, the financiers, and bust out banksters get massive taxpayer bailouts via the Federal Reserve, everyone else gets the bill, which traps those at the bottom almost permanently at the bottom. The GNE accelerated the wealth gap between the 1 percent and the hapless, powerless muppets in the other 99 percent.

Exactly as classical economics predicts for a fiat currency outcome.

Add in over aggressive enforcement reaction following the terrible events of 9/11, a Minneapolis police department where the Democrat politicians surrendered control to the union, and a profile of just who George Floyd was, and the protesting in America and elsewhere comes more into focus.

While nothing excuses rioting, arson and looting, racism, plus a root cause in wealth inequality fuelled by fiat money and a financialised economy forever bailed out by the Fed, generate inherent social instability. Instability communists and anarchists will plot to exploit.

The only way to truly solve the race problem in America is to narrow the wealth gap, black economists say

Published: June 6, 2020 at 5:37 p.m. ET
The unrest in cities across the U.S. this week is just the latest manifestation of a struggle that will continue until the wealth gap between white people and black people is addressed, black economists said.

What is the wealth gap? It is the stark divide between how much capital white people and black people control.

By one estimate, the typical white family has wealth of $171,000. This is nearly ten times greater than the $17,150 for an average black family.

Put another way, the typical black household remains poorer than 80% of white households.

This stunning wealth gap between the races has persisted, in good times and bad, for the past 70 years. It did not get better after the civil rights era legislation was passed in the 1960s or during the Obama administration.

And it will continue to fuel unrest, economists said.

“As long as we have racial wealth gap, we’re going to have a problems with race,” said Patrick Mason, an economics professor at Florida State University.

“The wealth gap is one of the reasons there are protests today,” said Linwood Tauheed, a professor of economics at The University of Missouri-Kansas City and the president of the National Economics Association.

“I don’t necessarily want to use the phase it was the straw that broke the camels back...but we have lots of evidence that this economic system is not benefitting the majority of the population,“ he said.
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Minneapolis Police Use Force Against Black People at 7 Times the Rate of Whites

Video of George Floyd’s last conscious moments horrified the nation, spurring protests that have led to curfews and National Guard interventions in many large cities.

But for the black community in Minneapolis — where Mr. Floyd died after an officer pressed a knee into his neck for 8 minutes 46 seconds — seeing the police use some measure of force is disturbingly common. 

About 20 percent of Minneapolis’s population of 430,000 is black. But when the police get physical — with kicks, neck holds, punches, shoves, takedowns, Mace, Tasers or other forms of muscle — nearly 60 percent of the time the person subject to that force is black. And that is according to the city’s own figures.

----Since 2015, the Minneapolis police have documented using force about 11,500 times. For at least 6,650 acts of force, the subject of that force was black.

By comparison, the police have used force about 2,750 times against white people, who make up about 60 percent of the population.
More
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/03/us/minneapolis-police-use-of-force.html


Special Report: How union, Supreme Court shield Minneapolis cops

June 4, 2020 / 5:11 PM
(Reuters) - Long before the death of George Floyd last week, efforts to overhaul the way policing is done in Minneapolis repeatedly fizzled in the face of a powerful 800-member union that championed military-style police tactics.

The union’s labor contract with the city is a formidable roadblock to citizens seeking disciplinary action after aggressive encounters with police. Led by Lieutenant Bob Kroll, the union’s vocal and hard-charging president for five years, officers rarely face sanctions, Reuters has found.

A Reuters analysis of complaints against Minneapolis police officers from the past eight years shows that 9 of every 10 accusations of misconduct were resolved without punishment or intervention aimed at changing an officer’s behavior. The analysis covers about 3,000 complaints during that period; five officers were fired.

The Minneapolis union contract is not unusual. Dozens of other contracts across the United States contain provisions that stymie efforts to hold cops accountable for violence and other alleged abuses, a 2017 Reuters investigation found. The news agency examined contracts in 82 cities for that article and found that 46 required departments to erase disciplinary records, some after just six months. The absence of a paper trail makes firing officers with a history of abuses difficult, lawyers and police chiefs say.

Compounding the challenge for citizens seeking justice: a U.S. legal doctrine called qualified immunity. A Reuters investigation last month found that the concept, created and reinforced in a series of U.S. Supreme Court rulings, increasingly shields from civil liability officers who are accused of using excessive force.
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Bust the Police Unions to Rank and Yank Bad Cops

Officials need the ability to fire low-performing officers and reward ones who go above and beyond.

June 5, 2020 7:43 pm ET

The police officer who killed George Floyd had been the subject of more than a dozen complaints about his conduct. In two previous incidents, Derek Chauvin had been disciplined with letters of reprimand. Tou Thao, who stood by as Floyd died, previously had a lawsuit brought against him over excessive use of force. The lawsuit was settled for $25,000. How can such men be allowed to “serve and protect”? Unions.

Public-sector unions, including police unions, will do almost anything to protect their members. These unions create a culture of impunity. Even police officers who are terminated can be reinstated, “often via secretive appeals geared to protect labor rights rather than public safety” as a 2014 piece in the Atlantic put it.

The Minneapolis police union has signaled it will fight to ensure the officers fired over George Floyd’s killing get their jobs back. The union’s Lt. Bob Kroll said he’d “worked with the four defense attorneys that are representing each of our four terminated individuals under criminal investigation, in addition with our labor attorneys to fight for their jobs.” This should be a warning of the difficulties inherent in reforming police departments and ending police violence.

But it is clearly time to rethink public-sector unions, and one good place to start would be more and better information. There will be no improvement until officers are no longer protected at all costs by unions.

Take an example from Canada. In 2017, the Fraser Institute found that employees in Canada’s private economy were five times as likely to be removed from their jobs as public-sector employees were. Public-sector workers were almost five times as likely to be unionized.

Increasing turnover of public-sector jobs could help root out toxic employees. A first step would be to let go of the lowest-performing 2% of public-sector workers—in this case, police officers—each year. That would help ensure that the most violent, disrespectful and incompetent officers are dismissed each year.
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George Floyd Left a Gospel Legacy in Houston

As a person of peace, “Big Floyd” opened up ministry opportunities in the Third Ward housing projects.

The rest of the country knows George Floyd from several minutes of cell phone footage captured during his final hours. But in Houston’s Third Ward, they know Floyd for how he lived for decades—a mentor to a generation of young men and a “person of peace” ushering ministries into the area.

Before moving to Minneapolis for a job opportunity through a Christian work program, the 46-year-old spent almost his entire life in the historically black Third Ward, where he was called “Big Floyd” and regarded as an “OG,” a de-facto community leader and elder statesmen, his ministry partners say.

Floyd spoke of breaking the cycle of violence he saw among young people and used his influence to bring outside ministries to the area to do discipleship and outreach, particularly in the Cuney Homes housing project, locally known as “the Bricks.”

“George Floyd was a person of peace sent from the Lord that helped the gospel go forward in a place that I never lived in,” said Patrick PT Ngwolo, pastor of Resurrection Houston, which held services at Cuney.

“The platform for us to reach that neighborhood and the hundreds of people we reached through that time and up to now was built on the backs of people like Floyd,” he told Christianity Today.
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The beginning of reform is not so much to equalize property as to train the noble sort of natures not to desire more, and to prevent the lower from getting more.

Aristotle

Covid-19 Corner                       

Though hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

CDC reports 1,920,904 coronavirus cases in United States

June 7, 2020 / 7:25 PM
(Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Sunday reported 1,920,904 cases of new coronavirus, an increase of 29,214 cases from its previous count, and said COVID-19 deaths in the United States had risen by 709 to 109,901. 

The CDC reported its tally of cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, as of 4 p.m. EDT on June 6. Its previous tally was released on Friday. (bit.ly/2UkMHx9)

The CDC figures do not necessarily reflect cases reported by individual states.

The Top Doctor Who Aced the Coronavirus Test

Dr. Bonnie Henry kept the disease in check in British Columbia without harsh enforcement methods. Now, she is leading the way out of lockdown.
By Catherine Porter June 5, 2020

That Tuesday in March was the day Bonnie Henry had been preparing for her whole life.
Overnight, 83 people had tested positive for the novel coronavirus and three more had died. The pandemic had officially broken out in British Columbia.

Standing inside the provincial legislature’s press gallery, the preternaturally calm top doctor of Canada’s westernmost province declared a public health emergency. Under her orders and recommendations, schools closed, bars shuttered and social distancing measures were put in place.

“It seemed so surreal,” she said. “I felt like someone was standing on my chest.”

That day, March 17, Dr. Henry ended her presentation with a line that would become her trademark, and a mantra for many Canadians struggling to cope under a lockdown. It has since been hung in windows, painted on streets, printed on T-shirts, stitched on shoes, folded into songs and stamped on bracelets.

“This is our time to be kind,” she said in her slow and low-pitched voice that many call comforting, “to be calm and to be safe.”

In the next few months, Dr. Henry would prove to be one of the most effective public health officials in the world, with lessons for nations struggling to emerge from lockdowns.

While Ontario and Quebec, the two most populous provinces, are still grappling with hundreds of new cases every day, British Columbia has now reopened schools, restaurants and hair salons. This week, the province of five million reported fewer than 80 new cases.

“By all rights, British Columbia should have been clobbered,” said Colin Furness, an outspoken infection control epidemiologist in Toronto. The province is on the coast, above Washington State, he noted, with a large population that travels back and forth to China, where the outbreak began.

“They took decisive action, did it early without hesitation and communicated effectively,” Mr. Furness added. “People listened to her.”

----Taking a rare break in her Victoria living room, wearing one of the many T-shirts emblazoned with her image sent by a fan, Dr. Henry said in a video interview that she is both heartened and frightened by her sudden fame. She is an introvert, used to working in relative obscurity. She wears her now famous collection of quirky shoes by a Canadian designer, John Fluevog, for “a bit of confidence.”

But she allowed that a 30-year medical career as a female fleet medical officer tending to 1,000 men at sea, a family doctor at an urban California clinic, an epidemiologist setting up quarantines for families exposed to Ebola in Uganda and the operational leader of Toronto’s response to the lethal SARS outbreak in 2003 prepared her well for this moment.
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Ocean Park, Disneyland to reopen soon as commerce secretary pledges reboot for Hong Kong’s economy on back of tourism, trade

·         Commerce secretary Edward Yau says city ready to begin pushing for return of trade shows and conventions as well, starting with the Hong Kong Book Fair
·         Ocean Park will once again be open to visitors from Saturday, though a firm date is not yet locked in for Disneyland
Published: 12:48pm, 8 Jun, 2020

Hong Kong’s two major theme parks will be reopened imminently as a key step in rebooting an economy reeling from the triple whammy of social unrest, the US-China trade war and the coronavirus pandemic.

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah revealed on Monday that Ocean Park will greet guests on Saturday for the first time since closing on January 26 amid the pandemic. The Disneyland resort on Lantau Island will also resume operations soon, though a specific date has not been released.

Additionally, conventions and trade shows – almost completely absent in the first half of this year due to the public health crisis – will stage a comeback in July, with the much-loved Hong Kong Book Fair leading the way, he said.

“We want to reboot the economy in the second half of this year through new initiatives in tourism, external trade and trade insurance services,” Yau said. “We are confident we will ride out the economic doldrums.”

Hong Kong’s economy faces fresh challenges now that the United States has pledged to remove special trading privileges in response to Beijing’s planned security law for the city. The future holds the possibility of trade tariffs, more restrictions on technology transfers and policy changes on currency and visas.
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“Every reform movement has a lunatic fringe.”

Theodore Roosevelt


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

A remote control for neurons

Date: June 1, 2020

Source: College of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University

Summary: Researchers have created a new technology that enhances scientists' ability to communicate with neural cells using light. The team synthesized three-dimensional fuzzy graphene on a nanowire template to create a superior material for photothermally stimulating cells.

A team led by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University has created a new technology that enhances scientists' ability to communicate with neural cells using light. Tzahi Cohen-Karni, associate professor of biomedical engineering and materials science and engineering, led a team that synthesized three-dimensional fuzzy graphene on a nanowire template to create a superior material for photothermally stimulating cells. NW-templated three-dimensional (3D) fuzzy graphene (NT-3DFG) enables remote optical stimulation without need for genetic modification and uses orders of magnitude less energy than available materials, preventing cellular stress.

Graphene is abundant, cheap, and biocompatible. Cohen-Karni's lab has been working with graphene for several years, developing a technique of synthesizing the material in 3D topologies that he's labeled "fuzzy" graphene. By growing two-dimensional (2D) graphene flakes out-of-plane on a silicon nanowire structure, they're able to create a 3D structure with broadband optical absorption and unparalleled photothermal efficiency.

These properties make it ideal for cellular electrophysiology modulation using light through the optocapacitive effect. The optocapacitive effect alters the cell membrane capacitance due to rapidly applied light pulses. NT-3DFG can be readily made in suspension, allowing the study of cell signaling within and between both 2D cell systems and 3D, like human cell-based organoids.

Systems like these are not only crucial to understanding how cells signal and interact with each other, but also hold great potential for the development of new, therapeutic interventions. Exploration into these opportunities, however, has been limited by the risk of cellular stress that existing optical remote-control technologies present. The use of NT-3DFG eliminates this risk by using significantly less energy, on a scale of 1-2 orders of magnitude less. Its biocompatible surface is easy to modify chemically, making it versatile for use with different cell types and environments. Using NT-3DFG, photothermal stimulation treatments could be developed for motor recruitment to induce muscle activation or could direct tissue development in an organoid system.

"This is an outstanding collaborative work of experts from multiple fields, including neuroscience through Pitt and UChicago, and photonics and materials science through UNC and CMU," said Cohen-Karni. "The developed technology will allow us to interact with either engineered tissues or with nerve or muscle tissue in vivo. This will allow us to control and affect tissue functionality using light remotely with high precision and low needed energies."
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A party of order or stability, and a party of progress or reform, are both necessary elements of a healthy state of political life.

John Stuart Mill

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 25,383 +12 Down. NASDAQ: 9,490 +178 Up. SP500: 3,044 +83 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to higher.

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