Monday, 3 September 2018

Kaiser Trump v Canada.


Baltic Dry Index. 1579 -35   Brent Crude 77.44

There is only one person who is master in this Empire and I am not going to tolerate any other.

Kaiser Bill. 1891.

As North Americans celebrate that last summer holiday of the year, and your editor, writer, dog walker and dinosaur general scots conservative crank, celebrates the extension to life last week to his dog Rosie, a briefer update today while we await Kaiser Trump’s next shoe to fall in his global trade war, probably as early as Thursday.

For the moment though, Kaiser Trump seems to have become fixated on his neighbours to his north. Kaiser Trump and his hooligan team, have become delusional, calling Canada and Canadians a “threat to (US) national security.” Time for the men in white coats, I think.

Kaiser Trump seems to have real animosity towards poor P.M. Trudeau. Did someone in Canada block a golf course?

Trump Slams Canada’s ‘Decades of Abuse’ After Nafta Talks Stall

By Andrew Mayeda, Josh Wingrove, Eric Martin, and Shawn Donnan
1 September 2018, 00:40 GMT+1 Updated on 1 September 2018, 16:53 GMT+1
President Donald Trump slammed what he termed “decades of abuse” by Canada with a new threat to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, a day after talks with the U.S.’s northern neighbor stalled hours before a deadline.

“There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out,” Trump said on Twitter on Saturday. “Congress should not interfere w/these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off.”

The president’s tweet was sent shortly after he left the White House in a motorcade bound for his golf course in Virginia.

Trump’s move on Friday to notify Congress that he planned to sign a deal with Mexico in 90 days and would include Canada “if it is willing” appeared to avoid what many in the U.S. business community and Congress had seen as a worst-case scenario. But Saturday’s tweets opened the door again to that outcome.

“We were far better off before NAFTA -- should never have been signed. Even the Vat Tax was not accounted for. We make new deal or go back to pre-NAFTA!” Trump said.

‘Ripping Us Off’

That comment repeated a threat from the president earlier in the week to forge ahead with a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico that would leave out Canada, which he on Friday again accused of “ripping us off.”

“We can’t have these countries taking advantage of the United States,” he told supporters in North Carolina.

While the two sides failed to meet a deadline set by the White House, both U.S. and Canadian negotiators insisted that they were making progress. They also announced that they would resume talks on Wednesday after four days of intense negotiations in Washington ended without a final agreement.

Sending the notification to Congress effectively sets a new clock for the Nafta negotiations. Under rules set by Congress, the administration is now facing a 30-day deadline to provide a full text of the agreement.

Because of that, negotiations could still drag on for not just days but weeks. But both the U.S. and Canada are facing their own pressures.

U.S. business groups welcomed the signs of progress but made clear that they would oppose any deal that did not include Canada.

“Anything other than a trilateral agreement won’t win Congressional approval and would lose business support,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a statement.

Trump’s continuing vitriol toward Canada has complicated the politics for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who on Friday said he’ll only sign an agreement that’s right for his country.
More

September 3, 2018 / 5:57 AM

Asian factories feel pinch from escalating trade conflict

TOKYO (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in major Asian economies took a hit from weak export orders in August, a sign firms are starting to feel the pinch from intensifying trade friction between the United States and China that many fear could derail global growth.

Surveys of purchasing managers released on Monday showed persistent pressure on key exporting destinations China, Japan and South Korea.

In China, its vast manufacturing sector grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in August, with export orders shrinking for a fifth month. 

Export orders also shrank in Japan and South Korea, suggesting that increasing protectionism and concerns of slower Chinese demand are weighing on Asia’s export-reliant economies.

Separate data showed Japanese corporate capital expenditure jumped in the second quarter by the most since 2006, though some analysts warn that global trade tensions may cloud the outlook.

“The tit-for-tat tariff retaliation hurts China’s economy far more than that of the United States. And when you look at Asia’s economic prospects, much depends on whether China could avoid a sharp slowdown in growth,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Japan.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s relentless “America First” trade push has hurt confidence in many countries and hammered Asian stocks, as investors fret about the hit to global supply chains.

The fear is that the escalating tariff conflict will freeze business investment and trade in a blow to global growth.

Trump has said he is ready to implement new tariffs as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends on Thursday, which would be a major escalation after Washington already applied tariffs on $50 billion of exports from China.

In Germany there are signs the global trade tensions are having a more noticeable impact with industrial orders figures for July expected to show only a small rise, after falling by the most in nearly a year-and-a-half in June.
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Stock market likely to undergo vigorous stress test in September

Published: Aug 26, 2018 1:37 p.m. ET
One of the key features of the 2018 edition of the stock market is that it has remained surprisingly durable in the wake of heightened tensions from President Donald Trump’s continuing trade war and the Federal Reserve’s shift to a more hawkish stance.

Now, the market will be put to an even more rigorous stress test in September, with the month among the worst for stock performance.

Since its inception in 1928, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.01%  has finished lower in September more than any other month, or 55% of the time for an average return of negative 1.01%, according to Dow Jones Data Group.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.09% the record is equally dismal, with the blue-chip benchmark also seeing its worst performance in the month, declining 70 times out of 121 Septembers for an average return of negative 1.03%.

September is likewise a poor month for the Nasdaq COMP, +0.26%  with the technology-heavy index falling 45% of the time since 1971 for a negative return of 0.49%.

Much of the month’s abominable record can be attributed to seasonality, with investors slow to return from summer vacations, resulting in low trading volumes, which partly contributes to elevated market volatility. In fact, market activity on Aug. 23 was the thinnest for the year to date with only 5.19 billion shares trading hands, tracking total composite volume of trading on the Nasdaq, NYSE and its various exchanges.

Indeed, the stock market could theoretically come under intense pressure as speculation about the possibility of Trump’s impeachment mounts after his campaign chairman Paul Manafort last week was found guilty on eight charges including tax fraud. In a double blow, Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen admitted that he violated campaign-finance law at Trump’s direction.
More

Finally, Italy! They’re back.

From Darling to Dog: Italian Stocks Punished as Budget in Focus

By Allegra Catelli and Marco Bertacche
What a dramatic reversal of fortune for Italian stocks, which have gone from being the market’s darlings in the spring to a pariah status less than four months later.

The country’s FTSE MIB equity benchmark has become the second-worst performing western European stock index in 2018, dropping from its top rank earlier in the year, as a coalition government formed by populist parties is scaring off investors.

After leading gains across the region’s benchmarks, the FTSE MIB began sliding from a 9 1/2-year high reached May 7, about the time the Five Star Movement and the League started talks to form a government following inconclusive elections in March. The index reversed from its 12 percent gain for 2018 to a 7.3 percent drop as of last Friday, the second-worst showing in Western Europe this year after Athens. That compares to a 1.8 percent decline for the Stoxx Europe 600 index.

Investors’ focus has shifted to political issues as a number of government officials have said Italy might flout EU budget-deficit rules, threatened a veto of the trade bloc’s budget in a dispute over migrants and questioned state outsourcing contracts. Three of the FTSE MIB’s five steepest-declining members are banks, including Banco BPM SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, while infrastructure manager Atlantia SpA is the worst performer after a bridge collapse in Genoa prompted authorities to review the company’s toll-road concession.

“Over the coming month, or until it becomes clear that the government will adopt a more prudent fiscal policy stance, we continue to expect significant volatility in Italian asset prices, with the risk skewed towards a further fall of Italian government bonds and equity prices,” Goldman Sachs senior strategist Silvia Ardagna wrote in a report.

The Italian stocks’ roller-coaster is not expected to stop until there’s further clarification from the government regarding the budget and whether it will breach the EU’s deficit limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. A draft budget is set to be submitted to the European Commission by Oct. 15, with Italy’s parliament taking up debate on it five days later and approval expected by year end.
Late on Friday, Italy’s rating outlook was lowered by Fitch Ratings, which said the fiscal plans of the new government risk a degree of fiscal loosening.

You have only one enemy and that is my enemy. In the present social confusion it may come about that I order you to shoot down your own relatives, brothers or parents but even then you must follow my orders without a murmur.

Kaiser Bill. 1891.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner 

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, another unintended consequence of the wrongs of fiat money. Presented without need for further comment.

September 3, 2018 / 1:14 AM

Massive fire tears through Rio's 200-year old National Museum

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - A massive fire raced through Brazil’s 200-year-old National Museum in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, probably destroying its collection of more than 20 million items, ranging from archeological finds to historical memorabilia.

The destruction of the building, once a palace for emperors that had fallen into disrepair, was an “incalculable loss for Brazil,” President Michel Temer said in a statement.

“Two hundred years of work, research and knowledge were lost.”

There was no word of the possible cause late on Sunday, nor if there were casualties or the exact extent of damage. 

Firefighters in Rio did not reply to requests for comment.

Live television broadcast images of the fire, which began after the end of visiting hours at 5 p.m., burning out of control throughout the building late into the night.

The museum, which is tied to the Rio de Janeiro federal university and the education ministry, was founded in 1818. It houses several landmark collections, including Egyptian artifacts and the oldest human fossil found in Brazil.

The museum had suffered from years of neglect under numerous governments, the institution’s vice-director the Globo TV network on Sunday night.

“We never got anything from the federal government,” said the official, Luiz Duarte. “We recently finalized an agreement with (state-run development bank) BNDES for a massive investment, so that we could finally restore the palace and, ironically, we had planned on a new fire prevention system.”

In a statement posted on its website in June, BNDES agreed to financing of 21.7 million reais (4.14 million pounds) to “physically restore the historic building” and also to carry out work to “guarantee more security to its collections.”

I look on myself as an instrument of the Almighty and go on my way regardless of transient opinions and views.

Kaiser Bill. 1910.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Solar Energy in Mexico Gets a Boost

August 30, 2018

Atlas Renewable Energy, a U.S.-based company that operates in Latin America, announced this week that financing for its first solar power plant in Mexico is complete with Banco de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext) having committed to finance the project.

Bancomext will provide $88.5 million dollars to finance the construction of the project, along with a $17 million dollars line of credit for Value Added Tax (VAT). The plant will have an installed capacity of approximately 129.5 MWp and will generate approximately 300 GWh annually according to the company.

The Guajiro Solar project is expected to begin operations in the second quarter of 2019. The plant will span over 410 hectares (1,013 acres) in Nopala de Villagrán, located in the state of Hidalgo.

The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), Mexico’s federal electricity company signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the company after the first long-term energy auction, which carried out in 2016 as part of Mexico’s energy reform.

Camilo Serrano, general manager of Atlas Renewable Energy for Mexico, said that the project, "demonstrates a collaboration of public and private interests to increase the presence of renewable energy in Mexico" and added he company hopes to expand Atlas Renewable Energy’s footprint in Mexico.

Mexico intends to increase the amount of clean energy sources to 35 percent by 2024 and 50 percent by 2050.
Should you encounter the enemy, he will be defeated! No quarter will be given! Prisoners will not be taken! Whoever falls into your hands is forfeited. Just as a thousand years ago the Huns under their King Attila made a name for themselves, one that even today makes them seem mighty in history and legend, may the name German be affirmed by you in such a way in China that no Chinese will ever again dare to look cross-eyed at a German.

 

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August.

DJIA: 25,965 +207 Down. NASDAQ: 8,110 +265 Up. SP500: 2,902 +168 Up.
All three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and  NASDAQ have now turned up.  September will be critical for confirmation of this change.

1 comment:

  1. Cananda is Trumps easiest target...china , Germany and France are too big and too tough.." little Canada has no backbone .i say that as a Canadian....Trump will get his deal and hopes to use us as an example to the rest of the world ...

    ReplyDelete