Wednesday, 26 September 2018

Fed Decision Day. Facts v Statistics.


Baltic Dry Index. 1450 +16   Brent Crude 81.82

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.

Mark Twain

Today, it is put up or shut up time for the Fed. Will they or won’t they raise their key interest rate. A third interest rate hike this year is dreaded by the deeply dollar indebted emerging market economies, but the Fed only sets interest rates for the USA. Based solely on what’s happening in the US economy, the Fed is already lingering quite far behind in raising interest rates.

President Trump has all but ordered the Fed not to raise their key interest rate, but that only makes a rate hike all the more likely, if only to preserve the pretence of Fed independence.

Below, a world awaiting the Gospel according to Jerome Powell.

Asian Stocks Mixed; Treasuries Steady Before Fed: Markets Wrap

By Andreea Papuc
Updated on 26 September 2018, 05:18 GMT+1
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited the Federal Reserve meeting. U.S. Treasuries were steady, with yields near the seven-year highs reached in May.

Japan’s Topix index retreated from its highest in almost eight months. Stocks rallied in Hong Kong as traders returned from a holiday. Chinese stocks advanced after MSCI Inc. said it’s considering increasing the weight of the shares in its global indexes from next year. U.S. stocks were mixed as oil drillers rallied with crude while industrial shares lagged. President Donald Trump told the United Nations that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable,” in a reminder of deepening trade tensions. The dollar weakened slightly. Brent crude stabilized just below a four-year high.

Investors are seeking direction in the face of mounting political, trade and policy headwinds and what could be a long and bruising conflict between the U.S. and China following the Asian nation’s decision to call off planned talks after the latest round of tariffs. Traders now turn to the Fed’s policy meeting, which will likely see the year’s third interest-rate increase and feature fresh projections for the next few years.

Ten-year Treasury yields are just below 3.10 percent, while two-year yields are at a decade high ahead of the Fed statement and press briefing by Chairman Jerome Powell.
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Up next, a bad, if  fun day in Gotham City. Well a bad day for all excepting President Trump’s new best buddy, North Korea. How much longer before all the bad rhetoric results in a major misreading, miscalculation, and war?

“If you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”

James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.

Trump, Iran's Rouhani exchange threats, insults on U.N.'s world stage

September 25, 2018 / 12:55 PM
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani exchanged taunts at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday with Trump vowing more sanctions against Tehran and Rouhani suggesting his American counterpart suffers from a “weakness of intellect.”

Trump used his annual address to the United Nations to attack Iran’s “corrupt dictatorship,” praise last year’s bogeyman North Korea and lay down a defiant message that he will reject globalism and protect American interests.

But much of his 35-minute address was aimed squarely at Iran, which the United States accuses of harbouring nuclear ambitions and fomenting instability in the Middle East through its support for militant groups in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. 

“Iran’s leaders sow chaos, death and destruction,” Trump told the gathering in the green-marbled hall. “They do not respect their neighbours or borders or the sovereign rights of nations.”

Rouhani, addressing the assembled world leaders later, sharply criticized Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran. He said he had “no need for a photo opportunity” with Trump and suggested the U.S. president’s pull back from global institutions was a character defect.

“Confronting multilateralism is not a sign of strength. Rather it is a symptom of the weakness of intellect - it betrays an inability in understanding a complex and interconnected world,” he said.

Trump’s address was met largely by silence from world leaders still not comfortable with go-it-alone views that have strained U.S. relationships with traditional allies worldwide.

His speech, while delivered in a low-key fashion, was nonetheless a thunderous recitation of his “America First” policies. He has disrupted the world order by withdrawing the United States from the nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord, and threatened to punish NATO nations for not paying more for their common defence.

---- Besides calling out Iran, Trump also criticized China for its trade practices but made no mention of Russia’s interference in Syria’s war or its suspected meddling in U.S. elections.

Rouhani was defiant in his speech to the world body.

“What Iran says is clear: no war, no sanctions, no threats, no bullying; just acting according to the law and the fulfilment of obligations,” Rouhani said.
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Trump’s UN Handshake With Trudeau Suggests Lingering Resentment

By Toluse Olorunnipa and Josh Wingrove
If body language at a UN luncheon is any hint, Justin Trudeau is still in Donald Trump’s doghouse.

The U.S. president and Canadian prime minister attended the same luncheon at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, but it was hardly a warm encounter. The two mingled near each other but didn’t speak before Trump sat down for lunch. Trudeau then approached Trump, standing behind him without the president appearing to acknowledge him. Trudeau tapped him on the shoulder and the men shook hands in a brief exchange. Trump didn’t stand up.

Later, Trump’s other Nafta partner, Mexico’s Enrique Pena Nieto, came by and the U.S. president stood to shake his hand. Trump also stood to greet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Trump spoke to both for longer than he did Trudeau.

The UN encounter comes as the countries bear down on a U.S. deadline for a new Nafta pact, but they remain divided on a handful of core issues. Trump and Trudeau initially had a warm relationship, before the Group of Seven summit in June where Trump erupted after a Trudeau press conference.

From tragedy to farce: How world leaders learned to laugh at Trump


It might be remembered as the moment when the world’s response to the Trump threat shifted from paralytic horror to dismissive laughter.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York Tuesday morning contained many of the elements that left the free world aghast in 2017: Promises to tear up crucial international climate, trade and nuclear-peace agreements; threats of war (against Iran this time, but not North Korea); kind words for strongmen and dictators with little but scorn for the democratic world.

This time, however, the response from many of the other 100-plus world leaders present was laughter and ridicule. Mr. Trump opened his address with a flourish of characteristically ludicrous braggadocio (“My administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country”), cut short by very audible peals of laughter from the heads of state and government gathered in the General Assembly.

Mr. Trump reacted with visible discomfort – “Didn’t expect that reaction,” he muttered to the audience. After all, over the past decade he has frequently denounced the Obama administration’s policies by declaring, in speeches and tweets, that “the world is laughing at us.” For the first time, it really was, at the highest level, and directly to his face.

One was reminded of Franz Kafka’s description of the type of person whose “ludicrous aspect” inspires uncontrollable laughter among otherwise serious listeners: “an individual in the public eye whose lofty position is not solely a function of his own accomplishments.”

The laughter was more than an incidental backdrop to more serious issues. It represented, in a way, an emerging global response to Mr. Trump’s angry unilateralism.

While many countries remain threatened by Mr. Trump’s isolationist, unco-operative United States, at this point they have effectively priced Mr. Trump into his country’s share price – and the rest of the UN membership spent the remainder of the day trying to devise a world order that can function without the United States.

In the core of his speech, Mr. Trump denounced international co-operation on peace, disarmament and environmental protection as an intolerable manifestation of “unelected, unaccountable, global bureaucracy,” as a set of “threats to sovereignty” from “global governance.”

In his key sentence, a declaration with overtones rooted in the 1930s that seemed to have been penned by one of his advisers on the extreme right, Mr. Trump intoned: “America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the ideology of patriotism.”

This sort of ultra-nationalist, isolationist rhetoric is nothing new to the UN General Assembly: Although the United Nations was created, in the aftermath of the Second World War, to prevent such ideas from rising to dominance again, many leaders, both democratic and authoritarian, have used the assembly to lash out at perceived conspiracies and plots directed by the world community. Leaders of the far left and far right have denounced “globalism.” The shock of such words coming from the mouth of a U.S. president was new and palpable in 2017, but by now they have become a familiar, if disquieting, piece of performance art.

---- What has changed, since Mr. Trump first articulated his pessimistic doctrine in 2017, is the world’s response. Aside from the laughter, much of the day was devoted to other major-country leaders outlining an alternative way of conducting international business – presumably without requiring U.S. involvement.

“I deeply believe in the sovereignty of people” – not of national governments, French President Emmanuel Macron began in a very well-received speech. “In the 21st century, we should only triumph through bolstered multilateralism.”

Mr. Macron drew a sharp line between the Trump image of a global conspiracy and the sort of co-operation that attempts to solve grave international problems: “My point is, I don’t believe in generalized or empty globalization … I believe in universal values. Those are two different things. Here today, even [among] those who might criticize it, we have all benefited from the way global order is structured around globalization.”

That remark was met, by most of the other leaders, with a lengthy ovation.
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At UN, more evidence that Trump is losing the world


President Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday morning depicted a United States under siege, finally pushing back after years of unfair trade pacts and free riding among allies. Clear warnings were issued: He rejected the International Criminal Court — echoing John Bolton’s speech two weeks ago — and the new global migration compact; from now on, foreign aid would go only to those the secretary of state deems friends. 

The big picture: President Trump put his America First doctrine forward as a model not just for the United States, but for other countries. He advised them to embrace nationalism over internationalism. The rest of his address hit familiar talking points: boasting about the American economy; praising sovereignty; denouncing globalism, unfair trade, the UN Human Rights Council, OPEC and the Iran nuclear deal; and vilifying China, Iran and Venezuela.

Trump set out patriotism as incompatible with globalism, neglecting the reality that many of the challenges confronting the United States this century, including terrorism and nuclear proliferation, will require collective action. 

---- The principal exception to the dark tone of the speech concerned North Korea’s Kim Jung-un. The president continued to praise him and extoll what their diplomacy has accomplished despite evidence to the contrary. 

The bottom line: At one point during his speech, Trump boasted that “in less than two years my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country,” a statement that met with laughter. It was more evidence that he has lost his international audience — not just in the UN Assembly Hall today, but around the world.

Richard Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “A World in Disarray.”

A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read.

Mark Twain
 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Not the usual suspects today, bent banksters, seriously bent central banksters, and doubled over politicians, they’ll be back in spades tomorrow. Today, how the world is fast changing with new “facts” on the ground. News western mainstream media rarely reports and politicians would rather you didn’t know.

Chinese contractor drills longest railway tunnel in East Africa

Source: Xinhua| 2018-09-25 03:03:14|Editor: Yang Yi
NAIROBI, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) -- China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) has drilled the longest railway tunnel in East Africa, the company said Monday.

The tunnel is part of phase 2A of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) that runs from the Kenyan Capital city of Nairobi to Naivasha town.

An Aijun, general manager of SGR project head office at the CCCC, said that during the excavation, the project team overcame the challenges of water leaks, uneven pressure, shallow-depth excavation, surrounding rocks, structural fault-line, and oil pipeline protection.

"With a total length of 4.5 km, the Ngong tunnel is currently the longest tunnel in East Africa and the dominant work in SGR Phase 2A," An said during celebrations to mark the breakthrough of the Ngong tunnel.

The Phase 2A which extends for about 120 km is set to be completed in 2019. The 4.5 km Ngong tunnel has been designed as a single-track railway tunnel with a clearance height of nine meters and a width of seven meters.

CCCC engineers used the New Austrian Tunneling Method (NATM) of drilling and blasting to build the tunnel and it is the first time that such a method has been used on such a large scale in Kenya.
The tunneling method is economical, efficient and has strong adaptability for different geological and groundwater conditions. The method is preferred because it controls surface collapse effectively, and enhances the working environment during construction.

An said the construction team addressed the technical difficulty in designing and constructing in the Great Rift Valley to ensure a safe breakthrough of the tunnel and this means that the SGR Phase 2A has entered a new stage, laying a solid foundation for inauguration next year.

The general manager said that with quality as a foundation and safety as a lifeline, they shall maintain an all-round quality control system in the source, process, methodology and management, and enforce strict safety management at all procedures.

"We will continue to protect the environment, implement local contents, and participate in social welfare, bringing real benefits to the local communities," he added.

"Together with all our Kenyan partners, and building on what has been achieved at the FOCAC (Forum on China-Africa Cooperation) Summit in Beijing, we shall construct a time-honored railway that will stand the test of time and operations, achieving greater success in a new era between our two nations," he added.

According to Steve Zhao, the CCCC Kenya SGR Project Spokesperson, 146 refuge holes of different sizes have been built within the tunnel to allow maintenance workers to take cover as the train approaches.

"There is one large refuge hole set up every 150 meters in the tunnel, and one small refuge hole set up every 30 meters in the tunnel," Zhao explained.

A 533-meter wide emergency rescue channel has also been built within the tunnel, to allow for vehicle access in case of emergencies.

"We have reserved space to install fans within the tunnel. Six jet fans can be installed to ensure air ventilation once the tunnel is operational," added Zhao.

He revealed that about 600 workers and engineers worked tirelessly overcoming all odds for 24 months to accomplish the engineering marvel.

Michael Waweru, chairman of board at the Kenya Railways, said the SGR is one of the most important transformational projects for the railway and entire transport sector in the region.

"It is an ambitious undertaking by the government of Kenya envisioned to revolutionize the social economic development of the country," Waweru said.

The chairman said it is expected that as a result of construction of the SGR line, it will lead to an upsurge in development in the towns along the corridor, ease transportation of their resources and foster sustainable development patterns.  

EU to set up legal entity to facilitate trade with Iran

Source: Xinhua| 2018-09-25 15:15:37|Editor: mmm
UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) -- The European Union (EU) will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran in light of the U.S. withdrawal from the international agreement on Tehran's nuclear program and the re-imposition of sanctions, said the EU's foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini on Monday.

The legal entity will allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran in accordance with EU law and could be open to other partners in the world, Mogherini told reporters at the UN Headquarters in New York after she attended a meeting of foreign ministers from Iran and from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia -- the five remaining powers of the 2015 agreement after the withdrawal of Washington.

Mogherini said participants of Monday's ministerial meeting were supportive of such a measure.
These initiatives are aimed at preserving the Iran nuclear deal, which is in the interests of the international community, according to a joint statement of the foreign ministers, whose English version was read out to reporters by Mogherini.

"The participants welcomed practical proposals to maintain and develop payment channels, notably the initiative to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle to facilitate payments related to Iran's exports -- including oil -- and imports, which will assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran," reads the statement.

"In practical terms this will mean that EU member states will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran," explained Mogherini.

The six foreign ministers and Mogherini met on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in a bid to save the Iran nuclear deal after U.S. President Donald Trump decided in May to pull out of it and to restore sanctions on Iran, including those intended to curb Tehran's oil exports.

"The participants considered ways forward to ensure the full and effective implementation of the JCPOA in all its aspects," reads the statement, using the formal name of the Iran deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

"They also took stock of the process of finding and operationalizing practical solutions for issues arising from the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the agreement and the re-imposition of sanctions."

The participants recognized that alongside implementation by Iran of its nuclear-related commitments, the lifting of sanctions, including the economic dividends arising from it, constitutes an essential part of the JCPOA, says the statement.

The participants recognized that Iran indeed has fully and effectively implemented its nuclear-related commitments, notes the statement.

They said that the JCPOA is a key element of the global non-proliferation architecture and a significant achievement of multilateral diplomacy endorsed unanimously by the UN Security Council through Resolution 2231.

Participants underlined their determination to protect the freedom of their economic operators to pursue legitimate business with Iran, in full accordance with the Security Council resolution.

The participants reaffirmed their continued commitment to their past promises, including the one to pursue concrete and effective measures to secure payment channels with Iran, and the continuation of Iran's export of oil and gas condensate, petroleum products and petrochemicals, says the statement.

John Bolton and Mike Pompeo warn Europeans over evading Iran sanctions

National Security Adviser John Bolton threatened “there will be hell to pay” if Iran attacks US or its allies
Joyce Karam
Updated: September 26, 201

----The State Department’s new Iran Action Group has released a 48-page report that chronicles the country’s destabilising activities around the world.

But amid reports that the European Union, Russia and China have agreed on a “special purpose vehicle” that would allow countries to deal with Iran while avoiding US sanctions, Mr Pompeo opened fire on the Europeans.

“Unfortunately, just last night I was disturbed and deeply disappointed to hear remaining parties in the Iran [nuclear] deal announce they are setting up a special payment system to bypass US sanctions,” he said.

“This is one of the most counter-productive measures imaginable for regional global peace and security.

“By sustaining revenues to the regime you are solidifying Iran’s ranking as the number one state sponsor of terror.”

Mr Bolton echoed the message in his speech.

“We do not intend for our sanctions to be evaded by Europe or anybody else,” he said.
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Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.

Mark Twain

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Wigner crystal -- not Mott insulator -- in 'magic-angle' graphene

Date: September 24, 2018

Source: University of Illinois College of Engineering

Summary: Recently, scientists created a stir in the field of condensed matter physics when they 
showed that two sheets of graphene twisted at specific angles display two emergent phases of matter. After a careful review of the experimental data researchers say that the insulating behavior of the ''magic-angle'' graphene is not Mott insulation, but something even more profound -- a Wigner crystal. 

Recently, a team of scientists led by Pablo Jarillo-Herrero at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) created a huge stir in the field of condensed matter physics when they showed that two sheets of graphene twisted at specific angles -- dubbed "magic-angle" graphene -- display two emergent phases of matter not observed in single sheets of graphene. Graphene is a honeycomb lattice of carbon atoms -- it's essentially a one-atom-thick layer of graphite, the dark, flaky material in pencils.

In two articles published online in March 2018 and appearing in the April 5, 2018 issue of the journal Nature, the team reported the twisted bilayer graphene (tBLG) exhibits an unconventional superconducting phase, akin to what is seen in high-temperature superconducting cuprates. This phase is obtained by doping (injecting electrons into) an insulating state, which the MIT group interpreted as an example of Mott insulation. A joint team of scientists at UCSB and Columbia University has reproduces the remarkable MIT results. The discovery holds promise for the eventual development of room-temperature superconductors and a host of other equally groundbreaking applications.

Researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have recently shown that the insulating behavior reported by the MIT team has been misattributed. Professor Philip Phillips, a noted expert in the physics of Mott insulators, says a careful review of the MIT experimental data by his team revealed that the insulating behavior of the "magic-angle" graphene is not Mott insulation, but something even more profound -- a Wigner crystal.

"People have been looking for clear examples of Wigner crystals since Wigner first predicted them in the 1930s," Phillips asserts. "I think this is even more exciting than if it were a Mott insulator."

Lead author of the U of I study, graduate student Bikash Padhi, explains, "When one sheet of graphene is twisted on top of another, moiré patterns emerge as a result of the offset in the honeycomb structure. By artificially injecting electrons into these sheets, the MIT group obtained novel phases of matter which can be understood by studying these extra electrons on the bed of this moiré pattern. By increasing the electron density, the MIT group observed an insulating state when 2 and 3 electrons reside in a moiré unit cell. They argued this behavior is an example of Mott physics."

Why can't it be Mott physics?

Phillips explains, "Mott insulators are a class of materials that should be conductive if electronic interactions are not taken into account, but once that's taken into account, are insulating instead. There are two primary reasons why we suspect the tBLG does not form a Mott insulator -- the observed metal-insulator transition offers only one characteristic energy scale, whereas conventional Mott insulators are described by two scales. Next, in the MIT report, in contrast to what one expects for a Mott system, there was no insulator when there was only 1 electron per unit cell. This is fundamentally inconsistent with Mottness."

The accompanying figure displays the crystalline states that explain this data.

What is a Wigner crystal?

To understand Wigner crystals, Padhi offers this analogy: "Imagine a group of people each inside a large orb and running around in a closed room. If this orb is small they can move freely but as it grows bigger one may collide more frequently than before and eventually there might be a point when all of them are stuck at their positions since any small movement will be immediately prevented by the next person. This is basically what a crystal is. The people here are electrons, and the orb is a measure of their repulsion."

It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.

Mark Twain 

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August.

DJIA: 25,965 +207 Down. NASDAQ: 8,110 +265 Up. SP500: 2,902 +168 Up.
All three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and  NASDAQ have now turned up.  September will be critical for confirmation of this change.

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