Thursday 23 August 2018

Wall Street’s Bull.


Baltic Dry Index. 1735  -01   Brent Crude 74.61

I am not a crook.

President Nixon.

My immense thanks to the overly generous and very kind LIR reader, who responded to my plight in helping cover the costs of my Border Collie’s get out of death row, gift from God, on Tuesday, in that after a year, her breast cancer was probably now operable. I would only embarrass him to name him, and God will reward him for his providing help at this very trying time. My 5 year old Great Niece Skye, also thanks him, since she’s grown up with Rosie and thinks of her as her special dog too. 

I can only thank God for such wonderful people. The opposite of the agenda forced on us all every day by modern, salacious, gutter dwelling, left wing TV news. Once again, I thank Jesus Christ for his never ceasing help. Rosie gets her operation next Wednesday.

And so on to business. More US tariffs on China went into effect at midnight EDT today. China has promised to impose a reciprocal 16 billion tariffs on US exports. Trade War Team Trump, meanwhile, are still reviewing imposing another 200 billion of punitive tariffs on Chinese goods.

“3,453 days. That’s how long the longest bull market in stock market history has lasted so far.
On March 9, 2009, the S&P hit its low of 666, and it’s been on an upward trajectory ever since.” John Mauldin.
But it’s all mostly down to just five stocks. Reality or market rigging? Time will tell, and soon, as in before Christmas, I think. Will Fed newbie Chairman Powell address the issue in his keynote speech tomorrow, at the Fed’s annual gathering of banksters and cronies?

The Atlantic magazine posits that President Trump is a crook. Does anyone care? Certainly not in the US stock markets.  But the Trump haters, and deep state, and Clintonistas smell blood in the water and impeachment. But are they right?

Today our bizarre, central bankster rigged, increasingly unstable, in all senses of the word, world.

"The tragic lesson of guilty men walking free in this country has not been lost on the criminal community."

President Nixon.

August 23, 2018 / 4:38 AM

U.S., China escalate trade war, impose more tariffs

BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China escalated their acrimonious trade war on Thursday, implementing punitive 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other’s goods.

The latest round brings to $50 billion the value of imports subjected to tariffs on either side since early July, and more are in the pipeline, adding to risks for global economic growth.

China’s Commerce Ministry said Washington was “remaining obstinate” by implementing the latest tariffs.

“China resolutely opposes this, and will continue to take necessary countermeasures,” it said in a brief statement shortly after mid-day.

“At the same time, to safeguard free trade and multilateral systems, and defend its own lawful interests, China will file suit regarding these tariff measures under the WTO dispute resolution mechanism,” it said.

Washington is holding hearings this week on a proposed list of an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to face duties.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection had confirmed on its website that at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Thursday, which is just past noon in Beijing, it would begin collecting extra 25 percent duties on 279 Chinese import product categories.

China’s official Xinhua news agency said Beijing’s own tariffs took effect at 12:01 p.m. local time, as scheduled.

The tariffs took effect amid two days of talks in Washington between mid-level officials from both sides, the first formal negotiations since U.S. Commerce Secretary met with Chinese economic adviser Liu He in Beijing in June.

Business groups expressed hope that the meeting would mark the start of serious negotiations over Chinese trade and economic policy changes demanded by President Donald Trump.

However, Trump on Monday told Reuters in an interview that he did not “anticipate much” from the talks led by U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass and Chinese Commerce Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.
More

Here’s the case against the ‘longest bull market’ in history

Published: Aug 22, 2018 3:33 p.m. ET
Want to start an argument on Wall Street? Just ask how old the current bull market will be on Wednesday.

“Hold the champagne! This is not the longest bull market on record or since WWII as the current buzz on the Street would have you believe,” wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, in a blog post.

Indeed, many investors are geared up to celebrate the “longest bull market” in history when the bell rings Wednesday. Barring a Black Monday-style market crash, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.04%  will have avoided a decline of 20% or more on a closing basis for 3,453 calendar days going back to the index’s bear-market low on March 9, 2009, in the midst of the worst global financial catastrophe since the Great Depression.

As Hirsch’s post illustrates, that calculation doesn’t sit well with some analysts, though not always for the same reason.

For example, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted objections that argue the current bull would have to run until April 3, 2021, to claim the crown. In this case, the rub doesn’t have to do with dating the start of the bull market back to March 2009. Instead, it hinges on the contention that the 1990s bull market actually ran longer than it is widely credited.

A bull market is seen as ending when stocks fall 20% or more from a cycle high. The market’s pullback from July 16 to Oct. 11, 1990 was only 19.9% on a closing basis, so sticklers would argue that the move should be classified only as the “deepest of corrections, not a bear market,” Stovall said. By that measure, the bull cited as beginning in October 1990 would have actually begun in October 1987 following the Wall Street crash.

----But others take exception to the idea the current bull began in March 2009. As MarketWatch noted back on the current bull’s ninth “birthday” in March, the notion of measuring a bull from the bear-market low is controversial in itself.

Read: Is this bull market really 9 years old?

Indeed, Hirsch’s objection is that the definitions of bull and bear markets are much more nuanced. Hirsch advocates using definitions laid out by Ned Davis Research. Under those criteria, a bull market requires a 30% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.34%  after 50 calendar days, or a 13% rise after 155 calendar days. Reversals of 30% in the Value Line Geometric Index since 1965 also qualify.

“Using Ned Davis rules, the longest bull began on Oct. 11, 1990, and ran for 2,836 calendar days until July 17, 1998,” Hirsch wrote. And the current bull didn’t begin until Feb. 11, 2016, and would therefore have to run until Nov. 17, 2023, to beat it (see table below).
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The President Is a Crook

The country now faces a choice between the Trump presidency and the rule of law.

David Frum is a senior editor at The Atlantic. In 2001–02, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush.
9:18 AM ET

So now it’s confirmed, as a matter of legal record, that President Donald Trump organized a scheme to violate federal election laws. He directed his longtime personal attorney to pay at least one woman for silence. That attorney got the money by lying to a bank to get a home-equity line of credit.

It’s a matter of legal record, too, that Trump’s campaign chair was a huge-scale crook. Despite his desperate financial straits, he volunteered to work for Trump for free—and Trump accepted.

These two cases complete the beginnings of the story. They are not the story in full. The Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort cases are like the first rocky outcroppings a ship passes as it makes landfall. They are examples of the kind of people willing to work for Trump—and the way that those people carried on their business. They indicate why one of Trump’s sons would write “I love it” when offered stolen information about the Hillary Clinton campaign by a purported representative of the Russian government, how so much doubtful money flowed into the Trump Organization after 2006, and why Trump dares not publish his tax returns.

House Speaker Paul Ryan’s office replied to a query from The Washington Post about the Cohen case: “We are aware of Mr. Cohen’s guilty plea to these serious charges. We will need more information than is currently available at this point.” Of course, a major priority of Ryan’s speakership has been to protect himself and his party against unearthing “more information” about Trump’s campaign, Trump’s businesses, and Trump’s finances. But despite his incuriosity, more information will almost certainly head his way, unless …

Unless President Trump somehow finds a way to shut it down.

It gets harder and harder to condemn an investigation as a witch hunt as it holds your closest associates accountable for major crimes. Who imagines that the Cohen plea and Manafort conviction represent the end of the trail? Pardons can protect the president’s associates from prison. But they can’t protect the president issuing the pardon—if anything, they would worsen his exposure and enhance the impression of guilt.
More
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/the-president-is-a-crook/568123/

Dollar Jumps Ahead of Jackson Hole; Stocks Mixed: Markets Wrap

By Adam Haigh and Andreea Papuc
Updated on 23 August 2018, 05:25 GMT+1

The dollar rallied for the first day in six as investors awaited a meeting of global central bankers after the Federal Reserve signaled no change to its pace of monetary policy tightening. Asian stocks traded mixed.

The greenback climbed against all its Group of 10 trading partners. The Australian dollar fell most against its U.S. counterpart and bond yields slipped as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull lost key support in a blow to his leadership. The 10-year Treasury yield held declines as the Fed indicated in meeting minutes a readiness to hike again if the economy stays on track. Australia’s stocks benchmark was down, with banks among the worst performers, and Japan was little changed. Shares fell in Hong Kong and China.

The dollar rallied for the first day in six as investors awaited a meeting of global central bankers after the Federal Reserve signaled no change to its pace of monetary policy tightening. Asian stocks traded mixed.

The greenback climbed against all its Group of 10 trading partners. The Australian dollar fell most against its U.S. counterpart and bond yields slipped as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull lost key support in a blow to his leadership. The 10-year Treasury yield held declines as the Fed indicated in meeting minutes a readiness to hike again if the economy stays on track. Australia’s stocks benchmark was down, with banks among the worst performers, and Japan was little changed. Shares fell in Hong Kong and China.

While U.S. stocks remain close to all-time highs amid double-digit corporate profit growth, traders are keeping an eye on the legal drama engulfing President Donald Trump as well as the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. China said it will file complaints against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization just as 25 percent of tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods came into effect.

Investors are also focused on comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell later this week when he speaks at a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“With economic data mostly cooperating with the Fed’s base message of continued rate increases driven by tight labor markets, above trend growth and bubbling inflation, it is unlikely that Powell will drastically stray from this message,” BNY Mellon senior global market strategist Marvin Loh said in a note. Powell may provide more details on the neutral rate, curve inversion and balance sheet process, Loh wrote.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-22/asian-stocks-set-for-modest-gains-dollar-slips-markets-wrap

"When a President does it, that means that it is not illegal."

President Nixon.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Europe, well Germany at least, wants to break free of American domination. Not exactly the success Trade War Team Trump were hoping for. And although it won’t happen overnight, Trump’s abrogating treaties at whim, attempt to put Chinese telecoms firm ZTE Corporation out of business overnight, and declaring war on friend and foe alike over Iran, has put the rest of the world on a path to make it happen.  Once bitten, twice shy.

How long before a new EU payments system ties into the newly evolving Russia – China payments system? Less than a decade’s my guess.

Germany Calls For Global Payment System Independent Of The US

 Wed, 08/22/2018 - 05:33
In a stunning vote of "no confidence" in the US monopoly over global payment infrastructure, Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas called for the creation of a new payments system independent of the US that would allow Brussels to be independent in its financial operations from Washington and as a means of rescuing the nuclear deal between Iran and the west.

Writing in the German daily Handelsblatt, Maas said "Europe should not allow the US to act over our heads and at our expense. For that reason it’s essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent Swift system," he wrote, cited by the FT.

Maas said it was vital for Europe to stick with the Iran deal. "Every day the agreement continues to exist is better than the highly explosive crisis that otherwise threatens the Middle East," he said, with the unspoken message was even clearer: Europe no longer wants to be a vassal state to US monopoly over global payments, and will now aggressively pursue its own "Swift" network that is not subservient to Washington's every whim.

Swift, a Belgium-based global payment network, enables financial institutions worldwide to send and receive information about financial transactions. The system’s management claims Swift is politically neutral and independent, although it has previously been used to block transactions and enforce US sanctions against various countries, most notably Iran.  In 2012, the Danish newspaper Berlingske wrote that US authorities managed to seize money being transferred from a Danish businessman to a German bank for a batch of US-sanctioned Cuban cigars. The transaction was made in US dollars, which allowed Washington to block it.

According to Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute, a Berlin-based think-tank, Maas’s intervention was the “strongest call yet for EU financial and monetary autonomy vis-à-vis US."

The German foreign minister’s article highlights the depth of the dilemma facing European politicians as they struggle to keep the Iran deal alive while coping with the fallout of US sanctions imposed by Mr Trump against companies doing business with Tehran.

Maas also called for the creation of a “balanced partnership” with the US in which the Europeans filled the gaps left where the US withdrew from the world. Europe must, he said, “form a counterweight when the US crosses red lines”.

As the FT adds, the EU has vowed to protect European businesses from punitive measures adopted by Washington, but that has failed to convince EU companies, who are more concerned about maintaining their access to the lucrative US market than in the more modest opportunities presented by Iran.

Last month Washington rebuffed a high-level European plea to exempt crucial industries from sanctions. Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, and Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary, formally rejected an appeal for carve-outs in finance, energy and healthcare made by ministers from Germany, France, the UK and the EU.

Swift is also affected: unless it wins an exemption from sanctions, it will be required by the US to cut off targeted Iranian banks from its network by early November or face possible countermeasures against both its board members and the financial institutions that employ them. These could include asset freezes and US travel bans for the individuals, and restrictions on banks’ ability to do business in the US.

Maas’s stark warning against US domination of global payments comes with relations between Germany and the US in their worst state for decades. Mr Trump has chastised Berlin over its large trade surplus, its relatively low military spending and its support for Nord Stream 2, a new gas pipeline that will bring Russian gas directly to Germany.

Meanwhile, Berlin has looked on in dismay as Mr Trump has withdrawn the US from the Iran deal and the Paris climate treaty, imposed import tariffs on EU steel and aluminium and appeared to question America’s commitment to Nato.

In short: Europe has finally had enough and it plans on hitting back at Trump where it truly hurts: the money.

"Get a good night's sleep and don't bug anybody without asking me."

President Nixon. To re-election campaign manager Clark MacGregor.


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

The Los Angeles Lakers just partnered with LG to bring solar power to training center

  • The Lakers' UCLA Health Training Center is now home to 456 solar panels that are set to produce an estimated 245,000 kilowatt hours per year.
  • The basketball team could save around $38,000 annually by turning to solar power.
Anmar Frangoul Published 7:43 AM ET Tue, 21 Aug 2018
After signing LeBron James earlier this summer, the Los Angeles Lakers are also looking to steal a march on rivals when it comes to sustainability.

The Lakers' UCLA Health Training Center is now home to 456 solar panels that are set to produce an estimated 245,000 kilowatt hours per year, enough to power 35 homes.

The 375-watt solar panels were provided by LG Solar and were installed by Vaha Energy, LG Electronics USA said in a statement Monday. The move is expected to save the Lakers around $38,000 each year.

"We are thrilled with the addition of our new LG Solar panels," Joseph McCormack, chief financial officer and senior vice president of finance at the Lakers, said in a statement. "One of our goals as an organization is to be at the forefront of energy efficiency, and these panels further our commitment to sustainability."

The Lakers are the latest major U.S. sports team to embrace renewable energy. In January, for example, Major League Baseball's San Diego Padres announced that their ground, Petco Park, would be home to a 336,520-watt solar power system.


Richard Nixon is a no good, lying bastard. He can lie out of both sides of his mouth at the same time, and if he ever caught himself telling the truth, he'd lie just to keep his hand in.

Harry Truman.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July.

DJIA: 25,415 +213 Down. NASDAQ: 7,672 +259 Down. SP500: 2,816 +166 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down ever since. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal 

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