Baltic Dry Index. 1723 +03 Brent Crude 71.60
“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.
With yet more Trump
Trade War Tariffs due to hit China on the 23rd, will the low level trade war
talks between China and team Trump, reportedly due on the 21st and
22nd be enough to delay or stop this next round of tariffs?
Asian markets this
morning hope so, but trying to predict President Trump’s actions against friend
and foe alike, has worse odds than predicting when 0 will turn up on the roulette
wheel. Given the poor odds and the Fed’s
rising interest rate policy, coupled with President Trump touting a strong
dollar policy, virtually every other nation on planet earth is quietly getting
on with a competitive devaluation against the dollar.
Where it all ends and
when, is anyone’s guess, but the longer trade wars and competitive devaluations
go on, the greater the long term distortion to global trade, the greater the
risk of miscalculation leading to the next global downturn.
So far the world has
benefited from manufacturers and retailers where possible, bringing forward
purchases to beat the new tariffs, but that one off plus is now about played
out. The new reality is about to start appearing in the trade figures from this
quarter onwards.
Below, what may turn
out to be a critical week for trade war sanity. Will China and trade war team
Trump, take advantage of the opportunity later this week? Will it even matter
if Trump follows through on his economic warfare with Iran?
August 20, 2018 / 1:21 AM
Asia shares inch up with yuan, wary on Sino-U.S.talks
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian share markets crept cautiously higher on Monday as investors
awaited developments on proposed Sino-U.S. trade talks and the Chinese yuan
rallied away from dangerous lows.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.4 percent, while Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 firmed 0.2 percent.
Moves were modest with Japan's Nikkei .N225 off 0.3 percent in thin trade, while EMini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 edged up 0.05 percent.
The yuan reached its highest in a week at 6.8512 per dollar CNY=CFXS as Beijing acted to prevent a test of the psychologically important 7.0000 level.
Investors were also encouraged by news China and the United States will
hold lower-level trade talks this month, offering hope that they might resolve
an escalating tariff war.
Reports suggested the talks in Washington would take place on Aug. 21
and 22, just before $16 billion in new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods take
effect.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Friday it doubled the
length of tariff hearings on the next $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to
six days from the previously planned three due to overwhelming demand from
companies to testify.
The hearings will be held Aug. 20-24 and on Aug. 27.
Dealers cited speculation the talks could set the stage for a summit
between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in
November.
More
In fiat currency war
news, it’s a free for all to devalue against Trump’s strong dollar policy.
There’s more than one wat to fight a trade war. Of course, those with savings
in the devaluing currency are the biggest early losers, followed by nearly everyone
else if a devaluing currency triggers rising prices.
Weaker Euro Becomes Much-Needed Boon for Region's Stocks
By Justina Lee
When things go south for European shares, you can usually count on a
silver lining: a weaker euro.
That’s because when the exchange rate falls, European companies
operating globally are more competitive, with their overseas earnings getting a
bump from the currency translation. And the region’s equities may need that
even more urgently now, after the benchmark posted its biggest five-day loss in
seven weeks, amid risks including Turkey’s turmoil, trade tensions and
political worries about Italy.
The turn in the euro, long after its best year in 2014, is a boon --
especially since it’s taken investors by surprise. It fell to the lowest in
more than a year versus the dollar last week, as its rate discount to the U.S.
deepened, just as Turkey’s worsening economic plight fanned fears of contagion.
The median forecast for the year-end euro rate has been falling since the
middle of 2018, and now the year-on-year change has turned negative.
“With
the euro depreciation that we’ve had so far this year, from this point you
should get some boost from the weaker currency in terms of euro-zone corporate
earnings,” said Daniel Morris, London-based senior investment strategist at BNP
Paribas Asset Management, which oversees about 568 billion euros ($648 billion)
of assets.
While the European Central Bank isn’t expected to raise rates until the
second-half of 2019, “the potential is for tighter monetary policy in the U.S,”
he added. “That should weigh on performance on U.S. stocks vis-à-vis European
stocks.”
Of course, it still depends on where the euro’s weakness comes from. It
won’t be good news for any European assets if it stems from economic or
political risks in the region. But if growth stays steady, and the euro weakens
on monetary divergence from the U.S., it could become a nice surprise for a
market that needs it.
Tariffs Will Hurt U.S. More Than Rest of World, Maersk Says
By Christian Wienberg
Updated on 20 August 2018, 00:01 GMT+1
The U.S. economy will be hit many times harder than the rest of the world by
an escalating global trade war, according the chief executive officer of A.P.
Moller-Maersk A/S.Soren Skou, who runs the world’s biggest shipping company from Copenhagen, said the fallout of the current protectionist wave “could easily end up being bigger in the U.S.” Tariffs could slow global annual trade growth by 0.1 to 0.3 percent, though for the U.S. the effect could be “perhaps 3 or 4 percent,” he said at Maersk’s headquarters on Friday. “And that would definitely not be good.”
China, Unsure of How to Handle Trump, Braces for ‘New Cold War’
The company transports about 20 percent of the world’s seaborne consumer goods, putting it in a unique position to gauge the fallout of tariffs on trade flows. Maersk has in the past broken with its culture of steering clear of any political debate to criticize the trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Maersk focuses on trade flows between Europe and Asia and so far its industry hasn’t been directly hurt by tariffs. In fact, demand grew 4 percent in the second quarter. But Skou says that may change if the U.S. starts targeting consumer goods
“The first thing the American importers would do if tariffs are put on
Chinese consumer goods would be to buy in Vietnam, in Indonesia or elsewhere in
Asia,” Skou said. “Big U.S. consumer brands like Nike produce in all of Asia,
not just in one country, so there will be a substitution effect.”
The U.S. put duties on $34 billion of Chinese goods last month, citing
unfair trade practices by the world’s second-biggest economy. The Trump
administration has said it will impose tariffs on a further $16 billion on Aug.
23, and even signaled it won’t shy away from targeting the entire $500 billion
in Chinese exports to the U.S.
“The
other factor is that there’s a lot of stuff that’s now imported into the U.S.
that just isn’t produced anywhere within the U.S.,” Skou said. “You can’t get
Nike sneakers or iPhones that are produced in the U.S. So it will end up being
pushed on to the consumer.”
"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."
Alan Greenspan. 1966.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Yes, it’s that time of year
again, when the central banksters and their pals gather in Wyoming to stitch up
everyone else on the planet. Of course, it doesn’t always work out, when the
best laid plans of mice and central banksters go aft agley. This year with a
newbie running the Fedster’s, and an erratic President Trump crashing around in
the China shop, there’s a higher probability than usual for that “go oft
agley,” bit.
Will “Trade War Trump” twit
though the Fed’s fix-it coven? Wild horses couldn’t stop him! It will be
interesting to see if President Nero signals thumbs up or thumbs down for the
assembled banksters and their cronies.
People
of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some
contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the
same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to
facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.
Adam Smith. The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
Trade talks and Fed's Jackson Hole meeting could create more than the usual late August volatility
- Trade developments could overshadow most everything else in the week ahead, except for the Fed, which releases the minutes of its last meeting Wednesday and meets in Jackson Hole at the end of the week.
- Talks restart with China Wednesday and Thursday, the day a new set of tariffs on Chinese goods are due to take affect.
- But the U.S. has talks on three major fronts, and officials will meet with European officials Monday and will continue talks with Mexico.
- The bull market, in the view of some market pros, could become the longest in modern history on Wednesday, when it will be a day older than the tech bubble bull that ran from 1990 to 2000.
The dog days of August could be volatile this year, as trade and the Fed
dominate in the week ahead.
Markets will be fixated on the always important annual Fed symposium in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday, and
central bankers will hold high level discussions about policy and the economy.
The turmoil in Turkey could also remain a focus, but it's trade talks
that could dominate, and there's a chance they could become a positive
catalyst.
European trade officials are in Washington Monday for meetings, and U.S.
talks are expected to continue with Mexico, with a resolution appearing close.
But it is the trade talks with China Wednesday and Thursday that are getting
the most attention since there have been no signs of progress, and another wave
of tariffs are set to go into effect Thursday.
The dog days of August could be volatile this year, as trade and the Fed dominate in the week ahead.
Markets will be fixated on the always important annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday, and central bankers will hold high level discussions about policy and the economy.
The turmoil in Turkey could also remain a focus, but it's trade talks that could dominate, and there's a chance they could become a positive catalyst.
European trade officials are in Washington Monday for meetings, and U.S. talks are expected to continue with Mexico, with a resolution appearing close. But it is the trade talks with China Wednesday and Thursday that are getting the most attention since there have been no signs of progress, and another wave of tariffs are set to go into effect Thursday.
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. and Chinese officials are holding talks on a possible way to end the trade dispute, with a potential November meeting between President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping.
"If you take the possibility of a trade war with China off the table for a few months that allows the market to work its way higher. This has been one of the market's biggest worries. If you put it on the back burner, it's a good thing," said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist, QMA, a PGIM company.
A delegation from Beijing, led by Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, will hold meetings with U.S. officials led by the Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass.
The bull market, by some measures, also becomes the longest in recent history Wednesday. Some strategists disagree, and say the last bull market was much longer. However, there are enough believers in the milestone that it was already opening the door to new discussions on where the market is going and when its run might ultimately stop.
"We think it lasts through this year and does it last into 2019 and 2020, remains to be seen. What's likely to kill it is a recession, a too aggressive Fed, some kind of policy mistake or some combination of the above," said Keon. "Right now valuations are a little high but they're not nosebleed territory." Keon also said he sees no signs of a recession for next year.
More
It is
the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home
what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the
conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great
kingdom.
Adam Smith. The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Renewable Resort: Greek Island to Run on Wind, Solar Power
When the blades of its 800-kilowatt wind
turbine start turning, Tilos will become the first island in the Mediterranean
to run exclusively on wind and solar power.
Aug. 19, 2018, at 3:19 a.m.
TILOS, Greece (AP) — When the blades of its 800-kilowatt wind turbine
start turning, the small Greek island of Tilos will become the first in the
Mediterranean to run exclusively on wind and solar power.
The sea horse-shaped Greek island between Rhodes and Kos has a winter
population of 400. But that swells to as many as 3,000 people in the summer,
putting an impossible strain on its dilapidated power supply.
This summer, technicians are conducting the final tests on a renewable
replacement system that will be fully rolled out later this year. It will allow
Tilos to run exclusively on high-tech batteries recharged by a wind turbine and
a solar park.
The European Commission says Tilos will be the first autonomous
renewable green island in the Mediterranean. It plans to use the project as a
blueprint for other small islands across the European Union that have limited
grid connection to the mainland. The EU has largely funded the project,
providing 11 million euros ($12.5 million) of the total 13.7 million-euro
($15.7 million) cost.
"The innovation of this program and its funding lies in the
batteries — the energy storage — that's what's innovative," project
manager Spyros Aliferis said. "The energy produced by the wind turbines
and the photovoltaics will be stored in batteries, so that this energy can be
used for the grid when there is demand."
The batteries store power during sunny and windy conditions, releasing
it during periods of heavy demand and lower production — such as at nighttime
and the peak tourist season — to keep the grid powered up.
----To work, it required an overhauled grid with smart meters installed in homes and businesses to calculate times of peak demand.
Currently, Tilos gets its energy from an underwater cable that runs from
Kos to the island of Nisiros and on to Tilos. That creates an erratic,
outage-prone service that routinely breaks appliances and has forced many
businesses to rely on diesel generators.
While lacking the dazzle of other Greek islands like Mykonos and
Santorini, Tilos — a 14-hour ferry ride from the mainland — is a quiet vacation
spot that sees an average of 13,000 visitors a year. It's known as a green
island, popular with hikers and bird watchers, and most of it is now a
protected nature reserve.
----Tourism is the main source of revenue for the island. But businesses have been plagued by lengthy blackouts, leaving hotels without air conditioning and restaurants without light or power, forcing them to discard food from warm refrigerators.
Hotel owner Sevasti Delaporta has closely followed the project since its
inception over two years ago. There were initial doubts about the idea among
Tilos residents, but tests have run smoothly, even during peak times this
summer. The grid is expected to be fully operational in a few months.
More
“Under
the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an
economy's stability and balanced growth... The abandonment of the gold standard
made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means
to an unlimited expansion of credit... In the absence of the gold standard,
there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation”
Alan
Greenspan
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July.
DJIA: 25,415 +213 Down. NASDAQ:
7,672 +259 Down. SP500: 2,816 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down ever since.
For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash
signal.
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