Baltic Dry Index. 1708 -64 Brent Crude 74.54
“Protect
the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”
Donald
Trump. The Art of the Deal.
“Step up, step up,”
barked General Store manager Donald Trump, “get yer soybeans and LNG here.”
“Maybe tomorrow,”
said cashless euromerchant Juncker, sampling another batch of imported scotch, “I
must clear it with my governing board of 28 first.”
“No soybeans, or any
other kind of beans,” snapped French President Macron, seconded by Spanish
Prime Minster Sanchez.
“Wanna buy a used VW
diesel?” said Chancellor Merkel. “Only one previous owner, now ceasing driving
for health reasons.”
But all agreed they
were winners in the non-deal, trade deal struck on Wednesday between horse
trader Trump and the wobbly cashless euromerchant.
Below, everyone’s a
winner in the Great Global Trump Trade War, except perhaps China.
“Don’t count us out,”
fumed President Xi, as he violently slammed the door on QUALCOMM’s fingers.
Below, how everyone
became winners in our bizarre world of July 2018. What could possibly be wrong?
“The
worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That
makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”
Donald
Trump. The Art of the Deal.
Macron Says He Needs to See More Detail on Trump-Juncker Accord
By Helene Fouquet and Esteban Duarte
French President Emmanuel Macron said he will seek clarifications from
the European Commission on elements of the trade agreement its leader,
Jean-Claude Juncker, thrashed out with U.S. President Donald Trump this week.
“A good trade negotiation, as I have said before, can be only done on
balanced and reciprocal basis and under no circumstances under threat,” Macron
said during a joint press conference in Madrid with Spanish Prime Minister
Pedro Sanchez. “We have some questions that we will want to clarify in the
coming days with our European partners.”
Macron’s
reservations about the deal sealed Wednesday in Washington reflect concern that
the accord may create imbalances among European countries, and Germany in
particular. Sanchez matched his French counterpart’s caution.
“The Spanish don’t believe in unilateralism or that a specific economy
imposes its policies and criteria in international trade,” said Sanchez.
In return for a pledge by Trump to suspend the threat of an extra
tariff on European Union car exports, Juncker reheated proposals to bolster
transatlantic economic ties and buy more liquefied natural gas from the U.S.
Such a move would ease Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.
Macron said that agricultural products should be excluded from talks,
citing European standards on food safety and environment that should not be
abandoned in talks.
----He said that European firms should be given better access to public-sector tenders in the U.S. and called from Trump to make a gesture of goodwill over the “illegal tariffs” he’s imposed on steel and aluminum.
“This must comes ahead of any concrete advances” on trade, he said.
July 26, 2018 / 5:09 PM
U.S. touts EU trade truce, attention now turns to China
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States signaled on Thursday it is set
to push ahead on trade talks with Canada and Mexico after agreeing to suspend
hostilities over tariffs with Europe in a fragile deal that may clear the way
for renewed pressure on China.
A surprise deal struck on Wednesday will see Washington suspend the
imposition of any new tariffs on the European Union, including a proposed 25
percent levy on auto imports, and hold talks over tariffs on imports of
European steel and aluminum.
The deal boosted share markets initially, and U.S. industrial shares
were stronger on Thursday as fears of a trade war with Europe ebbed.
Both sides claimed victory in the deal, reached by Trump and European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker in Washington. In return for the talks and a
suspension of auto tariffs, the EU will import more soybeans and energy from
the United States.
It will also help the United States in its battle to stop Chinese theft
of companies’ intellectual property. Trump has announced a series of punitive
tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to halt a Chinese surge in high-technology
industries that threatens to displace U.S. dominance.
On the North American Free Trade Agreement talks with Canada and Mexico,
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he was “hopeful that we’ll have an
agreement in principal in the near future.”
“Whether it’s one deal or two deals, so long as we get the right
agreement, we’re indifferent,” Mnuchin told CNBC.
----EU officials said little had been given away by Juncker and that they had emerged as the winners by deferring the threatened car tariffs, which would have hit European carmakers hard.
The deal was hailed by commentators in the United States and Europe for
drawing back from an escalation in a trade war that had threatened to take the
world back to the kind of protectionism not seen since the 1930s, although some
cautioned the relief may be only temporary.
----“U.S.
and EU will be allied in the fight against China, which has broken the world
trading system, in effect,” Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow said. “President
Juncker made it very clear yesterday that he intended to help us, President
Trump, on the China problem.”
More
July 26, 2018 / 6:31 AM
Breakingviews - Xi takes trade war gloves off by blocking Qualcomm
HONG
KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) - Xi Jinping is taking off the trade war gloves.
Beijing’s effective veto of chipmaker Qualcomm’s $44 billion bid for NXP - by
dragging its feet to clear the deal - likely wasn’t what President Donald Trump
expected when he lifted a ban on China’s ZTE earlier this month. But in
weaponising monopoly law, President Xi has found a sharp response to U.S.
tariffs.
As
the trade war between the world’s two largest economies heats up, it is getting
harder to sort tit from tat. ZTE looked in deep trouble when it was slapped
with U.S. sanctions after admitting to violating rules on exports to Iran and
North Korea. Perhaps Trump thought easing up on the company would be
reciprocated by approval of Qualcomm’s bid.
The
American leader’s gesture, though, was undermined in two ways. First, when
Trump implemented tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods and promised duties
on hundreds of billions more. Second, by new policies targeting inbound
investment from the People’s Republic which saw its FDI in the United States fall
90 percent in the first half of 2018, according to the Rhodium Group.
U.S. exports to China are much lower which leaves less for Xi to target.
Letting the Qualcomm bid die on the vine without explanation was an easy
additional measure. The central bank has also let the yuan plunge 7 percent
against the dollar since April, which naturally offsets the price impact of any
trade duties. True, the slide has inversely tracked a rally in the global
dollar, but if Xi wants to send a sharper message to Trump, he could make a
radical decision to order the central bank to force the pace of depreciation.
On Thursday, Trump called China “vicious” for
targeting American agriculture exports. His response to Qualcomm’s failed deal
could further up the ante. He might move to further warm relations with Taiwan,
which China considers a renegade province. He could also re-apply pressure to
ZTE, in theory. Whatever comes next won’t be pretty.
In the markets, a subdued welcome,
as we head towards next week’s dress up Tuesday end of the month. After
Tuesday, the deluge?
July 27, 2018 / 2:11 AM
Asian shares post modest gains as trade fears keep investors cautious
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Asian stocks struggled to gain traction on Friday, following a
mixed Wall Street finish and as the worsening Sino-U.S. trade dispute kept
investors in the region cautious, despite signs of rapprochement between the
United States and Europe.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.1
percent. The CSI300 of Chinese shares fell 0.5 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei eked out a 0.1 percent gain though it was capped by
worries that the Bank of Japan could scale down its asset purchase at its
upcoming policy review next week.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe, ACWI, hit four-month highs on
Thursday, with European car maker shares gaining 2.6 percent after the European
Union and the United States agreed to negotiate on trade, easing fears of a Transatlantic
trade war.
U.S. industrial shares also made gains, rising 0.8 percent though the
S&P 500 Index dipped 0.30 percent on Thursday, due to a 19 percent dive in
Facebook on its earnings showing slowing usage.
While that pushed down the Nasdaq Composite 1.01 percent, other U.S.
tech firms held firm, with Amazon.com shares gaining 3.2 percent after market
following its stellar earnings.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield edged up to 2.9840 percent, its
highest level in 1-1/2 months, on receding worries about trade tensions.
Yet Asian shares were more subdued as trade disputes between Washington
and Beijing have shown few signs of abating.
“Now that Washington does not need to use its energy to fight with
Europe, it could increase pressure on China,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief
strategist at Mizuho Securities.
So far this month, MSCI China A shares have fallen 2.6 percent, taking
the biggest hit from U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats on tariffs and other
issues among major markets, compared to 3.3 percent gains in MSCI ACWI.
More
In other news, has the
global economy already peaked? What happens next in our brave new trade war, if
it has?
July 26, 2018 / 1:14 AM
Global economy has peaked; trade war torpedoes optimism - Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) - Global economic activity remains solid but has
already passed its peak, according to economists in Reuters polls who expect
protectionist policies on trade, which show no signs of abating, to tap the
brakes significantly.
While trade conflict between the United States and other major trading
partners, in particular China, has had only a modest impact on global trade and
the world economy so far, the turmoil in financial markets clearly suggests
confidence has taken a hit.
World stocks have been whipsawed by several sell-offs in recent weeks.
The dollar has risen 5 percent since April on those concerns and on still-solid
expectations for several more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year and
next.
Reuters polls of economists, foreign exchange analysts, bond market and
equity market strategists in recent months have raised alarm bells and the U.S.
government bond market is also close to flashing a recessionary signal.
In the latest Reuters polls taken this month, nearly three-quarters of
the 150 economists who answered an additional question said trade protectionism
would have a significant downward impact on global growth next year.
That conclusion is based on trade barriers already raised and U.S.
President Donald Trump’s threat to impose further tariffs on all $500 billion
of imported goods from China will likely make sentiment worse.
“The protectionist measures announced so far are unlikely in themselves
to have a strong negative impact on growth, but we are deeply concerned about a
possible escalation of the trade conflict,” noted Marco Valli, head of macro
research at UniCredit.
More
“You
can’t con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do
wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little
hyperbole. But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch
on.”
Donald
Trump. The Art of the Deal.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today more Trump tariffs, more “winners.” It’s a funny old world when we
start down the road to perdition.
'Sorry
losers and haters, but my I.Q. is one of the highest – and you all know it!
Please don’t feel so stupid or insecure, it’s not your fault.'
President Trump.
25 July 2018 - 04H16
Ailing US newspapers feel new pain from newsprint tariffs
WASHINGTON (AFP) -
US newspapers have taken a hit from a shift to digital news and a sharp
loss of advertising, but a round of tariffs on Canadian newsprint is pushing
some publications to the brink.
The Commerce Department earlier this year slapped preliminary tariffs of
up to 30 percent on newsprint from Canada -- the largest source for US
newspapers -- in response to a complaint from Washington state-based North
Pacific Paper Co.
Tariffs have heightened the economic woes for the US industry, notably
for small dailies and weeklies facing the prospect of belt-tightening that may
including cutting back print editions or slashing staff.
As newspapers reel from the current economic landscape, many have
already been making hefty newsroom cuts, including a 50 percent reduction at
the storied New York Daily News.
Andrew Johnson, publisher of three Wisconsin weeklies and president of
the National Newspaper Association of 2,300 local community newspapers, said
the tariffs are imperiling many news organizations.
"I lost some subscribers over the years. I cannot pass along
another increase now without damaging my business," Johnson told a July 17
hearing of the US International Trade Commission, the quasi-judicial agency
reviewing the tariffs.
Johnson said many newspapers "are freezing all hiring and trying to
cut pages or page sizes," and that if the tariffs remain in place, some
may have to shut down or sell.
Penelope Abernathy, a University of North Carolina professor who studies
media economics, said many small dailies and weeklies still bring in most of
their money from print, with digital subscription and ad revenues largely
disappointing.
Abernathy said that since 2004, around 60 dailies and more than 1,800
weeklies have shut down in the United States, creating "news deserts"
with a dearth of local coverage.
The new tariffs could lead to even more papers disappearing, she said.
"When you add on tariffs, that's going to be the death knell for a
lot of smaller newspapers that still rely on the print edition," said
Abernathy.
- Protecting or hurting? -
Several members of Congress criticized the tariffs at the ITC hearing as
counterproductive and urged the panel to overturn the findings.
"The tariffs will harm the US paper industry because they will
cause permanent harm to newspapers, printers, and book publishers, shrinking
the US paper industry's customer base," said Senator Susan Collins of
Maine.
Paul Tash, president and chief executive at the Tampa Bay Times
newspaper, said if the tariffs remain in place it will cost his organization
$3.5 million a year, "an extra cost we simply cannot absorb."
"After payroll, newsprint is our single biggest expense, and we are
cutting back there too," Tash told the hearing.
- Already reeling -
Newspaper industry employment in the US fell from more than 400,000 in
2001 to 173,000 in 2016, according to government data, highlighting the
troubles faced by the shift to digital.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
July 25, 2018 / 1:05 PM
Waymo self-driving cars to ferry Walmart shoppers in Arizona trial
(Reuters)
- Alphabet Inc’s Waymo is starting trials to ferry shoppers to Walmart Inc’s
stores in Phoenix, Arizona, the company said on Wednesday.
Walmart
shoppers in Phoenix metropolitan area can order groceries on Walmart.com and as
their order is being prepared at the store, self-driving cars will transport
them to the store and bring them back, Waymo said.
Waymo has also teamed up with U.S. shopping center owner DDR Corp to
offer shoppers and diners rides in its self-driving vehicles to and from the
Ahwatukee Foothills Towne Center in Chandler, Arizona.
Additionally, Waymo has expanded its existing partnerships with
AutoNation Inc and Avis Budget Group Inc in Phoenix. AutoNation will offer
customers a Waymo, rather than a loaner car, to get around while their personal
vehicles get serviced.
Avis Budget Group, which keeps Waymo vehicles charged and refueled for
an upcoming ride, will provide its customers these self-driving vehicles as a
last-mile solution to help them pick up or drop off their rental cars.
Having worked on self-driving cars since 2009 and with 5 million miles
(8 million km) driven on public roads under its belt, Waymo is generally
considered to be ahead of rivals in the development of autonomous vehicle
technology.
Global automakers, suppliers and tech companies like Waymo and Uber
Technologies Inc are pouring resources into the development of autonomous
driving systems and launching networks of test fleets aimed at pushing the
technology forward.
The complex challenges of self-driving and the high costs of research
and development has led to a host of partnerships between automakers, suppliers
and others.
Another weekend and
yet more tweets to come from President Twitter. What fun! Have a great weekend everyone.
'By the
way, I have great respect for China. I have many Chinese friends. They live in
my buildings all over the place.'
President
Trump.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June.
DJIA: 24,271 +221 Down. NASDAQ:
7,510 +267 Down. SP500: 2,718 +169 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April. May
and June. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to
cash signal.
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