Baltic Dry Index. 1695 +29 Brent Crude 72.25
And if
a house be divided against itself, that house cannot stand.
Mark 3:25
We open today with
that summit in Helsinki, and President Trump way off the American War Party
agenda, and trying to walk Russia back in from the new cold war. Needless to
say, the American War Party and the Deep State are furious, but with a Supreme Court
nominee to get passed and the mid term elections getting closer by the day, the
AWP and DS are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Still this might
be the time for Trump to start hiring food tasters and door handle openers.
For Russia, coming on
the day after a most successful month of hosting the World Cup in front of most
of the world, even a modest outcome from the summit would be a success. To get
turmoil in the AWP and American Deep State will be considered a big win in
Moscow, and probably Beijing too.
Below, welcome to our
new Trumpian world. Black is white. Up is down. Ego trumps profits. High priced
oil will come down by choking off yet more supply. Add to fully paid up
physical gold and silver. Currency wars, trade wars, US internal wars, and a potential summer oil
shock, what’s not to like? Buy more stocks – not.
July 16, 2018 / 10:05 PM
After pummelling allies, Trump ends wild Europe trip with Putin embrace
HELSINKI
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s week-long adventure on the world
stage in Europe came to a raucous conclusion in Helsinki on Monday, with
American allies fuming and confused and Russian President Vladimir Putin
literally smiling at his good fortune.
Trump’s trip to Belgium, Britain and Finland was marked by his frequent
taunts and threats aimed at America’s NATO allies, a sharp contrast to his
unrestrained bid to curry favour with Russia despite the conclusion by U.S.
intelligence agencies that Moscow meddled in the 2016 U.S. election to aid his
candidacy.
Even for Trump’s high-drama, tweet-driven presidency, this was the most
heavily criticized trip abroad of his 18 months in office. The only smooth
sections were a tea at Windsor Castle with Queen Elizabeth - although he kept
the nonagenarian monarch waiting and walked in front of her - and golfing at
his own Turnberry course in Scotland.
In Brussels, Trump sowed confusion and chaos, blasting NATO allies for
not contributing enough money for their own defence, then praising them for
their contributions. He arrived 45 minutes late to the second day of meetings
and hijacked the agenda.
----“The expectations in Europe that Trump would mellow are behind us now, we no longer have those illusions. But we need to put constraints on this, we need less histrionics,” the source said.
Leslie Vinjamuri, head of the U.S. and Americas programme at the Chatham
House think tank, said Trump’s style of first criticizing allies through tweets
and then declaring publicly that all was well was part of a pattern that seemed
intentional.
“The fancy term is multi-vocal signalling - in other words he sends
messages out within the same half an hour, the same hour, and he’s speaking to
different audiences. He’s very effective at it. Much of what he was doing on
this visit was doublespeak,” Vinjamuri told reporters.
On
the eve of his summit with Putin, Trump added insult to injury by calling the
EU a “foe” for its trade policies in a CBS interview that aired on Sunday.
That
language stood in stark contrast to the scene on Monday at Finland’s
presidential palace, where Trump called the Russian leader, accused by the West
of all manner of grievances, a “good competitor” and “I think the word
competitor is a compliment.”
More
In the markets,
rising fear that the trade war and Iran sanctions will kill the goose that lays
the golden eggs.
Asian stocks mostly lower as weak energy shares weigh
By Sue Chang Published: July 16, 2018 11:58 p.m. ET
Asian stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday as weak crude oil prices weighed
on energy shares.September Brent crude LCOU8, +0.49% sank 4.6% to $71.84 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest close for a most-active contract since April 17, according to FactSet. August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ8, +0.03% slumped over 4% to $68.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange—also the lowest finish for most-active contract since June 21.
Appetite for stocks was also dampened by economic data out of China on Monday which showed signs of slowing economy.
“The set of June and second quarter macro data confirms our view that, due to tight financial conditions, real growth is on a slowing trend, which we expect to continue into third quarter,” said Xiaojia Zhi, greater China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.
China’s second-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, slowing from 6.8% in the previous quarter. Industrial output grew 6% in June, compared with 6.8% in May.
The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.01% dropped 1% with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. 0386, -0.56% down 0.7% and PetroChina Co. 601857, -2.54% sinking 2.5%.
More
July 16, 2018 / 7:50 PM
Tesla shares fall after CEO Musk abuses British caver
(Reuters)
- Shares of Tesla Inc fell over 3.5 percent on Monday after Chief Executive
Elon Musk directed abuse on Twitter at one of the British cavers involved in
the rescue of 12 Thai children last week.
A number of analysts and investors, requesting anonymity, told Reuters
that Musk’s comments were adding to their concerns that his public statements
were distracting him from Tesla’s main business of producing electric cars. The
stock sell-off knocked almost $2 billion off the company’s market value.
Tesla shares were at $307.20 in after-hours trading on Monday from
Friday’s close of $318.87.
James Anderson, a partner at Tesla’s fourth-largest shareholder, asset
manager Baillie Gifford, called the weekend’s events “a regrettable instance”
and said he had reiterated to the company the need for “peace and execution” of
its core business.
The billionaire entrepreneur’s spat with British caver Vernon Unsworth
started last week, after rescue teams rejected Musk’s offer of a mini-submarine
created by his rocket company SpaceX to help rescue a 12-member soccer team and
their coach trapped inside a flooded cave in the northern province of Chiang
Rai.
“He can stick his submarine where it hurts,” CNN quoted Unsworth as
saying last week. “It just has absolutely no chance of working.”
Musk shot back on Sunday on Twitter: “We will make one (video) of the
mini-sub/pod going all the way to Cave 5 no problemo. Sorry pedo guy, you
really did ask for it.” The tweet was later deleted.
More
Netflix stock slammed after earnings, as subscriber growth and revenue fall short
By Sarah
Toy Published: July 16, 2018 8:20
p.m. ET
Company’s guidance for new subscribers and revenue also below consensus
Netflix Inc. posted weaker-than-expected second-quarter revenue and subscriber numbers Monday afternoon, sending its stock into a sharp dive during after-hours trading.Netflix NFLX, +1.18% shares fell about 14% in the extended session after the Los Gatos, Calif-based company announced it added 5.2 million streaming users in the second quarter, a substantial drop from the 6.2 million estimate the company provided in April. The company added 4.47 million international subscribers and 670,000 domestic subscribers, missing its April estimates of 5.9 million and 1.2 million.
More
The stock market is about to set a bearish record
By Ryan
Vlastelica Published: July 16, 2018
7:59 a.m. ET
The Dow and S&P 500 are poised to post their longest corrections since 1984
The U.S. stock market is hours from hitting a notable milestone, but it isn’t one that investors will feel particularly good about.Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.18% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.10% have been mired in correction territory for months, ever since Feb. 8, when concerns that inflation was returning to the economy sparked a selloff that led to their dropping 10% from record levels hit earlier in the year.
Amid months of rangebound trading, neither index has been able to fully recover or exit correction territory (the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.26% , which never officially corrected, is currently at record levels). For the S&P, exiting correction territory would require it to rise to 2,839.1, or a 10% gain from its low of the correction. It closed Friday at 2,801.31.
Including Friday, both the Dow and the S&P have been in correction territory for 108 trading days. This matches the longest such stretch since the financial crisis in 2008.
Should the two primary market gauges stay in correction through the close of trading on Monday, that will mean they are in their longest such stretch since 1984. In that stretch, it took the S&P 122 days to emerge from correction territory, and the Dow 123 days, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.
More
July 17, 2018 / 5:06 AM
As sanctions start to bite, Iran crude exports set to wilt
LONDON
(Reuters) - Iran’s oil exports could fall by as much as two-thirds by the end
of the year because of new U.S. sanctions, putting oil markets under huge strain
amid supply outages elsewhere in the world.
Washington initially planned to totally shut Iran out of global oil
markets after President Donald Trump abandoned a deal that limited Iran’s
nuclear ambitions, demanding all other countries to stop buying its crude by
November.
The United States has since somewhat eased its stance, saying that it
may grant sanction waivers to some allies that are particularly reliant on
Iranian supplies.
But most analysts still think the sanctions will significantly reduce
Iran’s crude oil exports with some of the worst case scenarios forecasting a
two-thirds drop to only 700,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Energy consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE) thinks Iran’s crude exports
could fall to only 700,000 bpd because of sanctions. Those exports would mainly
go to China, with smaller shares going to India, Turkey and to other buyers
with waivers.
Another 100,000 bpd of condensates could find their way to China, buyers with waivers and possibly to the United Arab Emirates and Korea, FGE says.
China, the biggest single importer of Iranian oil at 650,000 bpd according to trade flow data in Thomson Reuters Eikon, may ignore U.S. sanctions and keep importing.
India,
which imported an average of 550,000 bpd of Iranian oil in the first half, has
yet to make an official announcement. However, its state-owned refineries have
been told to prepare to find alternative supplies should Washington grant it no
waivers to sanctions.
More
Finally, are
Canadians mugs? After being accused of burning down the White House in 1814, (they
didn’t, GB did in retaliation for Americans burning down York in 1813, present
day Toronto,) and Canada’s Prime Minister publicly humiliated by President
Trump at the recent G-7 meeting, Canadians don’t seem to mind at all. Talk about being laid back.
C’est la vie: Canadians still visiting US despite trade flap
By DAVID SHARP July 15, 2018
OLD ORCHARD BEACH, Maine (AP) — The United States and Canada are engaged
in a trade dispute, angering Canadians, but it doesn’t seem to be having an
impact on tourism. Not yet, anyway.
In Old Orchard Beach, popular with Quebecers, innkeepers report that
Canadian tourism remains strong despite the harsh words last month when Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau vowed that Canada “won’t be pushed around” and
President Donald Trump called the prime minister “weak” and “dishonest.”
Several weeks later, Canada imposed billions of dollars in retaliatory
tariffs in response to the Trump administration’s duties on Canadian steel and
aluminum.
Mostepha Azizi, a vacationer from Montreal, said he’s confident the war
of words will end and that “reason will prevail” between the neighbors.
“For me, it’s just a question of time,” he said. “This thing will settle
down. Trudeau and Trump have to find a solution to the problem.”
Canada accounts for the largest number of international visitors to the
U.S., with more than 20 million visitors pumping nearly $20 billion into the
U.S. economy, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The number of Canadians heading south has grown this year, and the flap
between Trump and Trudeau after last month’s G7 summit in Quebec didn’t change
that.
Border crossing data indicates the number of Canadian motorists
returning from the U.S. in June grew 12.7 percent from last year, a healthy
increase, according to a license plate-scanning system used by the Canadian
government.
A so-called “Trump Slump” never materialized after Trump’s election, and
travel to the U.S. is growing despite anecdotal evidence that some Canadians
are choosing to travel elsewhere, said Allison Wallace, of Flight Centre
Canada, a travel agency with 150 locations across Canada.
“All of that being said, we’ve not seen a trade war like this, so that
may change,” she said, “but as of now, the U.S. remains a very popular
destination.”
Florida accounts for the largest number of visitors from the north,
typically snowbirds in the winter. New England is also a popular destination,
and beaches like Old Orchard Beach and Hampton Beach, New Hampshire, are an
easy drive from Canada’s Atlantic provinces.
In Old Orchard, Canadian flags are flown and many desk workers speak
French. Fries are served up Canadian-style, topped with vinegar, or with gravy
and cheese.
More
https://apnews.com/3cc07ddb7c9f469081c414021d2bd19d
War of 1812
The War of 1812 (which lasted from 1812 to 1814) was a military
conflict between the United States and Great Britain.
The War of 1812 (which lasted from 1812 to 1814) was a military conflict between the United States and Great Britain. As a colony of Great Britain, Canada was swept up in the War of 1812 and was invaded a number of times by the Americans. The war was fought in Upper Canada, Lower Canada, on the Great Lakes and the Atlantic, and in the United States. The peace treaty of Ghent, which ended the war, largely returned the status quo. However, in Canada, the war contributed to a growing sense of national identity, including the idea that civilian soldiers were largely responsible for repelling the American invaders. In contrast, the First Nations allies of the British and Canadian cause suffered much because of the war; not only had they lost many warriors (including the great Tecumseh), they also lost any hope of halting American expansion in the west, and their contributions were quickly forgotten by their British and Canadian allies.
More
“Investors
should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding
priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these
models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine
the assumptions behind the models. Beware of geeks bearing formulas. ”
Warren
Buffett
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, as goes New York so
goes the rest of the world? If NYC loses its department stores, will
international consumers still flock to NY, rather than London and Paris?
Department store apocalypse is taking its toll on NYC
July 14, 2018 |
I’m going to miss Lord & Taylor like mad when the Fifth
Avenue flagship closes next year. It isn’t only because of the
unlikely bargains I scored on its often-deserted men’s floors — a red vinyl
Perry Ellis-label jacket, marked down from $79.95 to $39.95 that strangers
hilariously mistake for Armani, and a wool winter coat as good as any for
$49.99.I won’t miss the once-charming but more recently cheap-looking holiday windows that weren’t worth waiting on line for. But Lord & Taylor, like every big department store, offered a welcoming civility that softened the city’s rough edges. New York will be slightly less human without it, however obsolete its business model. Never again will the public enjoy the store’s grand main floor with its noble vaulted ceiling, arched mirrors and stately columns.
The shutdown is one of up to 10 Lord & Taylor closures of a total 50 stores planned by chain owner, Hudson’s Bay Company. It comes amidst a nationwide department store apocalypse. Hudson’s Bay, which owns 488 stores including Saks Fifth Avenue, is battling high debt, declining sales and falling stock prices.
Another industry giant, Macy’s Inc., which also owns Bloomingdale’s, has closed 14 percent of its stores since 2014, while its same-store sales in 2017 fell 4.3 percent compared with 2016. J.C. Penney closed 138 locations, or 14 percent of its stores, last year.
Jeffrey Roseman, vice chairman of Newmark Knight Frank’s retail-brokerage division, told The Post, “The need for an eight-story, multi-hundred-thousand square-foot department store in major cities is limited at best.”
Noting that most main floors are turned over to cosmetics, Roseman said, “What woman wants to buy fragrance there? They can go into Sephora, Ulta or Blue Mercury and get the same stuff cheaper and be out in 10 minutes.”
But while department stores might be extinction-bound dinosaurs, they’re charming dinosaurs to have around.
Cities, as urban-planning god Jane Jacobs wrote in her classic 1961 book “The Death and Life of Great American Cities,” are about multiplicity of choice. Department stores provide infinite choice, or at least the mirage of it — the opposite of boutiques that peddle a single designer or brand.
Department stores welcome everyone to peruse enticingly displayed cocktail dresses and necklaces, sofas and floor lamps under one roof. Trying things on is a breeze. Although I buy tons of stuff from Amazon and at no-frills discounters such as Century 21, I still crave the sense of abundant prosperity conveyed by Bloomingdale’s over-the-top model rooms and Saks Fifth Avenue’s stately procession of designer suits.
Sure, they’ve long been losing ground. Once-distinct department stores began looking more alike as powerful fashion lines came to dictate retail layout and design. They staggered through a beating from big-box and “category-killer” discounters but now face a possible knockout blow from online retailing.
Too bad, because department stores are among the most agreeable places
to mingle, meet friends, linger on a rainy day — and eat. Many have fine
restaurants like Macy’s marvelous Italian trattoria Stella. They offer public
toilets that don’t require nuclear code-like protocols to use.
But almost every property in Manhattan today is worth less than its
redevelopment value — a fact that puts all department stores at risk.
More
“The
indignation school of writers never tires of pointing out the millions that are
stolen in the Street. But while the millions are being stolen, the billions are
being lost. Nothing crooked—just bad luck and bad brains met together in an
effort to do something that couldn’t be done in the first place.”
Fred
Schwed Jr., Where Are the Customers' Yachts?
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Damaged Batteries: A (Literal) Hot Topic in Battery Recycling
Across the globe, many organizations and businesses have adopted battery
recycling as part of their corporate social responsibility programs. To keep up
with the evolving battery landscape, enhanced education and awareness are
needed.
A timely example that underscores the need for more education is the
wave of media stories linking batteries (specifically damaged lithium-based) to
fires at recycling and waste facilities. These instances have thrust battery
safety into the spotlight, making it increasingly important to identify and
correctly dispose of these battery types. This includes being prepared to
handle damaged batteries when they show up in your collection stream or program.
With growing battery use, there is a critical need to address damaged
batteries. Batteries can become damaged several ways, including exposure to
different elements, temperatures or even accidental impact. One of the most
troublesome causes of damaged batteries is the attempt to remove batteries from
products that were never intended to be removed.
Damaged lithium metal or lithium ion batteries are specially regulated
by the U.S. DOT and have special handling and shipping requirements. To keep
your facility and staff protected against potential risks with damaged
batteries, consider these steps:
The More You Know
Educating staff on how to identify the types of damaged batteries that pose a threat is a good starting point. The physical damaged effects on these batteries can be seen through bulging, bloating, punctures, leaking or corrosion. As lithium-based batteries come in different shapes and sizes, it makes the identification process all the more important, especially as these batteries can be co-mingled with other mixed materials. Once these batteries are identified, they must be properly handled.
Handle with Care
Since these battery types require special handling and shipping, you can’t simply place them in a cardboard or plastic collection container as that will not provide proper protection. To safely store the damaged batteries or devices, place them in a non-flammable substance such as sand or kitty litter, following internal procedures for handling household hazardous waste. For responsible disposal and shipping, secure a specialty kit that complies with U.S. DOT requirements. Call2Recycle offers such a kit, which you can explore by contacting Call2Recycle Customer Service.
Safe and Sustainable
Understanding how to identify and properly handle damaged batteries can help protect people and property while doing something good for the planet. As battery use continues to soar, there will inevitably be instances of lithium-based batteries in the waste stream. Increased awareness, knowledge and safety practices are good ways to combat the issue.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June.
DJIA: 24,271 +221 Down. NASDAQ:
7,510 +267 Down. SP500: 2,718 +169 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April. May
and June. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to
cash signal.
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