Monday, 2 July 2018

Independence Daze. Mexico. Merkel.


Baltic Dry Index. 1385 +56    Brent Crude 78.15

“I go from a corruptible to an incorruptible crown, where no disturbance can be, no disturbance in the world.”

King Charles I, Tuesday January 30, 1649.
 
Today, Canada is closed, they are off celebrating Canada Day, commemorating July 1, 1867, the day that the British North America Act took effect, creating what evolved glacially into the modern, easy going, Trudeau Canada of today, complete with a life size copy of Scotland’s Forth Rail Bridge.

On Wednesday, their neighbours to the south in the USA, take the day off to celebrate Independence Day, commemorating the publishing of the Declaration of Independence July 4th, 1776. Around the time Adam Smith was publishing The Wealth of Nations. They then proceeded to revolt, shooting up the British loyalists and troops, side with the French Navy, and cause a British surrender at Yorktown in October 1781. The world turned upside down, has never been the same since.

As far as I know, only France also has its national day in July. Bastille Day, July 14th 1789, commemorating a revolting Parisian mob storming the Royal Prison in Paris, and the release of all 7 prisoners it held. France as usual, was in something of an economic crisis at the time, largely caused by the cost of its intervention on the Americans side in their revolution against the tyrant King George III, and his British and Hessian troops.  The Americans, typically, paid off the gullible French in worthless “continentals,”  setting off an American policy still in force today. Today, "worthless continentals" is usually taken to mean an inhabitant of Italy or Greece, or a depositor in Deutsche Bank, progress of a sort.

The rest of the story of the French Revolution, and why storming a prison holding only 7 prisoners should lead to the collapse and execution of the French monarchy, is still a mystery to everyone outside France, but it all got sorted out later, by an early French version of Trump, named Napoleon, a Russian Tsar called Alexander, and a British Iron Duke who invented Wellingtons.

Way back then as now, Canadians being so laid back, they took the better part of another century, to get on the independence band waggon, and start the process of separating Native Americans from their children. Then as now, a bad idea even before, smart phones, TV, and fake news media, Trump-phobia.

The point of bringing up all this quaint ancient history, is to suggest, that this coming week, and the next, when President Trump heads to Belgium, GB, and Finland, there to pow wow for a day with his boss President Putin, (according to the Democrats and FBI,) that our stock markets will likely be skittish and thinly traded for at least the next two weeks.

And let’s not get started on Mexico’s embarking down the road to Venezuela, nor Chancellor Merkel’s never ending migrant crisis.  This just might be a good month to sit out stocks in cash.

Below, the week’s happy independence daze.

"Cruel necessity".

Oliver Cromwell on the execution of King Charles I. Jan 30, 1649.

Canada Day

Canada Day (French: Fête du Canada) is the national day of Canada. A federal statutory holiday, it celebrates the anniversary of the July 1, 1867, coming into force of the Constitution Act, 1867 (then called the British North America Act, 1867), which united the three separate colonies of Canada, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick into a single Dominion within the British Empire called Canada.[1][2][3] Originally called Dominion Day (French: Le Jour de la Confédération), the holiday was renamed in 1982, the year the Canada Act was passed. Canada Day celebrations take place throughout the country, as well as in various locations around the world, attended by Canadians living abroad.
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Donald Trump crashes the Canada Day party: Aaron Wherry

'It is as difficult a moment as we have ever faced as a country,' says Bob Rae

Aaron Wherry · CBC News · Posted: Jul 01, 2018 4:00 AM ET
"It is as difficult a moment as we have ever faced as a country," Bob Rae wrote last week.

So, uh, Happy Canada Day.

Rae, the former NDP premier of Ontario and federal Liberal leader, refers here, of course, to Donald Trump. And the trade wars, tantrums and global instability the American president entails. It is because of Trump that Canada's 152nd year will be rung in this weekend with a round of retaliatory tariffs, raising prices on goods like American licorice, handkerchiefs and mattresses.

It is because of Trump that everything seems that much more tenuous.

Historians might note that Canada has had its share of difficult moments before now. Two world wars, the Great Depression, the Conscription Crisis, the October Crisis, Oka, two Quebec referendums. And whether this moment is any more or less trying is perhaps worthy of debate.

But this is not a passing trifle.

It is a measure of the current tension that significant intrigue has surrounded Stephen Harper's decision to meet with White House officials next week without notifying Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office, as if he had been caught cavorting with the administration of a hostile state.
While announcing Canada's summer offensive on Friday, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland was diplomatic on the question of Harper's choice of meetings.

"He is a person we all need to respect as the former prime minister of Canada. The remarks he made on Fox News recently, I think were helpful. And we wish him well in all his endeavours," she said, standing in a steel factory in Hamilton, Ont.

She was only slightly less diplomatic in explaining what the Trudeau government was about to do to the price of American exports to Canada.

Flanked by people in hard hats, Freeland described the American tariffs that started the dispute as "illegal" and "unjust" and "absurd" and "hurtful." The Canadian reaction, she said, would be "perfectly reciprocal."

"I cannot emphasize enough the regret with which we take these countermeasures," Freeland said. "We are acting very much in sorrow than in anger."

Of course, the Canadian public could be moved to anger if this situation drags on.

Was she worried, Freeland was asked, about the possibility of further American action in response to the Canadian retaliation?

"As I said, the day before our NAFTA negotiations began, we expected that there would be moments of drama," she said. "And I think that prediction has been borne out."
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Independence Day (United States)

Independence Day, also referred to as the Fourth of July or July Fourth, is a federal holiday in the United States commemorating the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. The Continental Congress declared that the thirteen American colonies regarded themselves as a new nation, the United States of America, and were no longer part of the British Empire.[1] The Congress actually voted to declare independence two days earlier, on July 2.[1]

Independence Day is commonly associated with fireworks, parades, barbecues, carnivals, fairs, picnics, concerts, baseball games, family reunions, and political speeches and ceremonies, in addition to various other public and private events celebrating the history, government, and traditions of the United States. Independence Day is the National Day of the United States.[2][3][4]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_(United_States)

Bastille Day

Bastille Day is the common name given in English-speaking countries/lands to the French National Day, which is celebrated on the 14th of July each year. In France, it is formally called la Fête nationale (French pronunciation: ​[la fɛt nasjɔnal]; The National Celebration) and commonly and legally[3] le 14 Juillet (French pronunciation: ​[lə katɔʁz(ə) ʒɥijɛ]; the 14th of July).

The French National Day is the anniversary of Storming of the Bastille on 14 July 1789,[1][2] a turning point of the French Revolution,[4] as well as the Fête de la Fédération which celebrated the unity of the French people on 14 July 1790. Celebrations are held throughout France. The oldest and largest regular military parade in Europe is held on the morning of 14 July, on the Champs-Élysées in Paris in front of the President of the Republic, along with other French officials and foreign guests.[5][6]
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The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

In Great Global Trump Trade War news, Canada fired at America on July 1. America fires on China on July 6th. Time’s past for most Canadians to stock up on toilette paper and JD.

Here's a list of products affected by tariffs so far, including nails and whiskey

  • In response to Trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Canada, Mexico and the European Union have each retaliated with duties on U.S. goods.
  • As a result, the price of a 700 ml bottle of Jack Daniel's whiskey will go up about 10 percent in the EU, according to a statement from parent company Brown-Forman.
  • Mid-Continent Nail, the largest U.S. manufacturer of nails, laid off 60 of its more than 500 workers due to steel tariffs, according to spokesperson James Glassman.
Published 2:52 PM ET Thu, 28 June 2018 Updated 3:31 PM ET Thu, 28 June 2018

As tit-for-tat tariffs take effect in major global markets, some companies are already raising prices or making business changes to cope with higher costs.

In response to Trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Canada, Mexico and the European Union have each retaliated with duties on U.S. goods. Mexico's tariffs took effect June 5 on U.S. products such as pork, cheese, cranberries, whiskey and apples. The EU enacted tariffs Friday on more than $3 billion worth of U.S. goods including bourbon, yachts and motorcycles. Canada plans to implement tariffs on July 1 on up to roughly $12.5 billion in imports of U.S. products such as yogurt, caffeinated roasted coffee, toilet paper and sleeping bags.

The White House's stated goal in implementing tariffs is protecting U.S. jobs, but the initial business response indicates U.S. companies are taking a hit.

Here are some of the American-made goods that are being affected and the markets where their prices are going higher:
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June 29, 2018 / 10:37 AM

Final countdown - last U.S. soybean cargo heads for China before tariff jump

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A cargo of soybeans from the United States bought by China’s state grain stockpiler will arrive in China next Thursday, the last delivery before stiff import tariffs threaten supplies from one of China’s top suppliers, according to shipping data and two sources familiar with the matter.

The Peak Pegasus carrying 70,000 tonnes of the oilseed is scheduled to land at the port of Dalian at 4 p.m. (0800 GMT) on July 5 - just ahead of when the new higher tariffs take effect on July 6, according to Eikon shipping data.

One of the sources with knowledge of the matter said Sinograin, China’s state-owned stockpiler, was the buyer.

Sinograin did not respond to a request for comment.

Beijing says it will impose an extra 25 percent import duty on more than 500 U.S. goods, including soybeans, on July 6. The move was in response to Washington’s plan to slap duties on $50 billion of Chinese goods, as the trade dispute between the world’s top two economies escalates.

The tit-for-tat trade threats have already disrupted trade flows across the commodities sector from sorghum to coal and inflated prices of animal feed ingredients such as soymeal.

Over the past three weeks, China has cancelled three cargoes of U.S. soybeans that would have shipped by Aug. 31, the latest casualties of the dispute, U.S. government data shows.

Soybeans, crushed to make cooking oil and the protein-rich animal feed ingredient soymeal, were the biggest U.S. agriculture export to China last year at a value of $12.3 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

----As the countdown to July 6 begins, the market is in limbo, said four traders that participate in the market.

Six vessels carrying just under 400,000 tonnes of U.S. beans, worth about $260 million at current prices, are anchored off China’s coast, Eikon shipping data shows. The Raraka has been moored off Jiangsu province for three weeks.
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Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country.

Franklin D. Roosevelt. Until they elected President Trump.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, there may be trouble ahead, but for whom, when, and why?

Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.

H. L. Mencken

Stocks in Japan, China slip as Asian markets take cautious start to new quarter

By Dow Jones Newswire  Published: July 1, 2018 11:09 p.m. ET
Asian stocks were mixed in early trading Monday as traders kicked off a new month and quarter.
The Nikkei NIK, -1.21%   lagged early, dropping 0.3% as automakers such as Honda 7267, -0.98%   and Nissan 7201, -1.39%   dropped some 1% on President Donald Trump’s weekend auto-tariff talk. South Korea’s Hyundai 005380, -1.59%   was down similarly, and the Kospi index SEU, -1.56%   was essentially flat along with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.11%  . New Zealand’s NZX 50 NZ50GR, +0.05%  , among the few indexes that didn’t log decent gains Friday, was up 0.3% at midday.

Japanese stocks maintained their early weakness as U.S.-related worries persisted, with a slump in sectors ranging from food to rubber, airlines and retail. But the weakest big-cap was Hitachi Chemical 4217, -4.34%  , down 3.5% to 21-month lows after disclosing inappropriate data entries related to lead-acid batteries. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business-sentiment report just missed in regards to big manufacturers but was solidly in positive territory. However, it predicted the dollar will weaken to ¥107.26, 3.5 yen below where the greenback currently trades. A stronger yen is a negative for many Japanese firms’ earnings.
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July 2, 2018 / 2:03 AM

Mexican leftist Lopez Obrador wins presidency - exit polls

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador decisively won Mexico’s presidency on Sunday, exit polls showed, setting the stage for the most left-wing government in decades at a time of tense relations with the Trump administration.

Pledging to eradicate corruption and subdue drug cartels with a less confrontational approach, the 64-year-old former Mexico City mayor will carry high expectations into office even as his efforts to reduce inequality are watched closely by nervous investors.

A Lopez Obrador government could usher in greater scrutiny of foreign investment and a less accommodating approach to the United States, but the peso rose more than 1 percent after his rivals conceded within minutes of the end of voting.

Four exit polls showed Lopez Obrador with a lead of more than 20 percentage points over his competitors, and winning between 46.8 percent and 59 percent of the vote. An official “quick count” of results is expected at midnight EDT (0400 GMT).
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July 1, 2018 / 10:17 PM

German Interior Minister Seehofer offers to resign - party sources

MUNICH (Reuters) - German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has offered to resign as both minister and as chairman of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union at a closed meeting of the party’s presidency, party sources said on Sunday.

Sources said Seehofer had not yet submitted the resignation and that some in the party were attempting to change his mind over the decision.

Seehofer has been pushing for Chancellor Angela Merkel to agree to a tougher immigration policy.

July 2, 2018 / 2:54 AM

China June manufacturing sector growth ebbs as export orders shrink - Caixin PMI

BEIJING (Reuters) - Growth in China’s manufacturing sector cooled slightly in June as firms faced rising input costs and a decline in export orders amid an escalating trade dispute with the United States, a private survey showed on Monday.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) declined to 51.0 in June from May’s 51.1, matching economists’ forecast.

It remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the 13th consecutive month.

A sub-index for output rose to 52.1 in June, a four-month high, though new order growth slowed and companies chose to sell down existing inventories instead of restocking.

The survey showed new export orders contracted for the third straight month and the most in two years, though there was no significant slide from the previous two months.

China faces escalating trade tensions with the United States, its largest export market, adding to uncertainty about the manufacturing sector at a time when domestic demand also appears to be cooling.

Economic data in May showed China’s economy is finally slowing, with weaker credit growth and a tighter liquidity environment hurting investment in local government building projects, which have helped boost the industrial sector.

This week the U.S. and China are set to impose new tariffs on each other’s imports, with both sides threatening to up the ante if the other doesn’t back down.
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July 2, 2018 / 4:57 AM

South Korea's Hyundai says U.S. car tariffs would harm security ties over North Korea

SEOUL (Reuters) - Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) cautioned the U.S. administration that imposing up to 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles from South Korea would hurt a security alliance between the two countries over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

The tariffs would hike production costs at Hyundai’s U.S. factory by about 10 percent and “jeopardize” its U.S. investment plan, the top South Korean automaker said, echoing sentiments of other global carmakers such as BMW (BMWG.DE).

The United States in May launched an investigation into whether imported vehicles pose a national security threat and President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to quickly impose tariffs.

The tariffs “would be devastating to Hyundai Motor”, Hyundai said in comments to the U.S. Department of Commerce late on Friday, according to a post on a U.S. government website.

Hyundai also said auto trade restrictions “would severely weaken Korea’s economy and therefore its ability to advance shared U.S.-Korea security interests in the region”.
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Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few.

George Bernard Shaw

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Simple logic for nanofluidic computing simulated

Date: June 29, 2018

Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

Summary: Invigorating the idea of computers based on fluids instead of silicon, researchers have shown how computational logic operations could be performed in a liquid medium by simulating the trapping of ions (charged atoms) in graphene (a sheet of carbon atoms) floating in saline solution. The scheme might also be used in applications such as water filtration, energy storage or sensor technology.

The idea of using a liquid medium for computing has been around for decades, and various approaches have been proposed. Among its potential advantages, this approach would require very little material and its soft components could conform to custom shapes in, for example, the human body.

NIST's ion-based transistor and logic operations are simpler in concept than earlier proposals. The new simulations show that a special film immersed in liquid can act like a solid silicon-based semiconductor. For example, the material can act like a transistor, the switch that carries out digital logic operations in a computer. The film can be switched on and off by tuning voltage levels like those induced by salt concentrations in biological systems.

"Previous devices were much more elaborate and complex," NIST theorist Alex Smolyanitsky said. "What this ion-trapping approach achieves is conceptual simplicity. In addition, the same exact device can act as both a transistor and a memory device -- all you have to do is switch the input and output. This is a feature that comes directly from ion trapping."

The NIST molecular dynamics simulations focused on a graphene sheet 5.5 by 6.4 nanometers (nm) in size and with one or more small holes lined with oxygen atoms. These pores resemble crown ethers -- electrically neutral circular molecules known to trap metal ions. Graphene is a sheet of carbon atoms arranged in hexagons, similar in shape to chicken wire, that conducts electricity and might be used to build circuits. This hexagonal design would seem to lend itself to pores, and in fact, other researchers have recently created crown-like holes in graphene in the laboratory.

In the NIST simulations, the graphene was suspended in water containing potassium chloride, a salt that splits into potassium and sodium ions. The crown ether pores were designed to trap potassium ions, which have a positive charge. Simulations show that trapping a single potassium ion in each pore prevents any penetration of additional loose ions through the graphene, and that trapping and penetration activity can be tuned by applying different voltage levels across the membrane, creating logic operations with 0s and 1s (see text box below).

Ions trapped in the pores not only block additional ion penetration but also create an electrical barrier around the membrane. Just 1 nm away from the membrane, this electric field boosts the barrier, or energy needed for an ion to pass through, by 30 millivolts (mV) above that of the membrane itself.

Applying voltages of less than 150 mV across the membrane turns "off" any penetration. Essentially, at low voltages, the membrane is blocked by the trapped ions, while the process of loose ions knocking out the trapped ions is likely suppressed by the electrical barrier. Membrane penetration is switched on at voltages of 300 mV or more. As the voltage increases, the probability of losing trapped ions grows and knockout events become more common, encouraged by the weakening electrical barrier. In this way, the membrane acts like a semiconductor in transporting potassium ions.
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Democracy is the road to socialism.

Karl Marx

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June.

DJIA: 24,271 +221 Down. NASDAQ: 7,510 +267 Down. SP500: 2,718 +169 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April. May and June. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal

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