Baltic Dry Index. 1772 -02 Brent Crude 74.15
“I like to think that I have that instinct. That’s why I don’t
hire a lot of number-crunchers, and I don’t trust fancy marketing surveys. I do
my own surveys and draw my own conclusions.”
Donald Trump. The Art of the
Deal.
Hopium lives for another day. Presidents
Trump and Juncker agreed not to escalate their tit for tat trade war for now, while
they open negotiations to lower trade tariffs and attempt to reform the World
Trade Organisation. Juncker also agreed that the EUSSR would import more US soybeans
and LNG.
Given that all 28 members plus the European
Parliament and the Belgian Walloonatics must unanimously agree on any lower
tariffs, and that it’s the sovereign nations and individual corporations that
must buy all these extra soybeans and expensive US LNG, I am sceptical much of
anything concrete was really agreed.
But at least for now, German motors can
continue flooding into US showrooms in an attempt to beat any future tariffs, and
for a few weeks more no new tariffs will be imposed by either side. If the price is right, US LNG can compete
against Russian and Norwegian natural gas although from London, it’s hard to
see US suppliers offering competitive discounts.
Below, when hopium broke out in Washington,
District of Crooks. In theory Europe 1 USA 0, at half time, final score to be
decided.
“I never get too attached to one deal or one approach…I keep a
lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising
they seem at first.”
Donald Trump. The Art of the
Deal.
Trump, Juncker Tout Deal Pulling Back From U.S.-EU Trade War
By Andrew Mayeda, Toluse Olorunnipa, and Jenny Leonard
Updated on 26 July 2018, 05:00 GMT+
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
agreed to suspend new tariffs while negotiating lower barriers to transatlantic
commerce, the biggest sign yet that a major trading partner can convince the
U.S. to back away from a trade war.The leaders pledged to expand European imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans and both vowed to lower industrial tariffs, excluding autos. The U.S. and European Union will “hold off on other tariffs” while negotiations proceed, as well as re-examine U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and the retaliatory duties imposed by the EU, Juncker said.
“We had a big day, very big,” Trump said during a press conference with
Juncker at the White House on Wednesday. “We are starting the negotiation right
now, but we know where it is going.” Trump hailed “a new phase” of trade
relations.
The deal eases tensions stoked by Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs
on car imports. The U.S. S&P 500 stock index surged in late-day trading,
ending 0.9 percent higher. Bond yields rose on signs of optimism that a U.S.-EU
trade war will be avoided.
Trump added they would try to “resolve” steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and retaliatory duties the EU levied in response. The U.S. and EU also will work together to reform the World Trade Organization and address unfair trading practices, they said in a joint statement.
----In a speech after his White House visit, Juncker said the deal may lead a reassessment of metals tariffs “in due course” after the U.S. imposed duties on steel and aluminum on national-security grounds. “We agreed that if we’re making sufficient progress on other issues this can be done from one day to another,” he told reporters after the speech.
The truce may prove to be short-lived if the two sides can’t resolve
their differences over trade in vehicles and car parts. In May, Trump abandoned
a framework for trade negotiations with China within days of it being
announced, before ratcheting up tariffs.
More
July 25, 2018 / 11:14 AM
Trump relents on EU car tariffs, as U.S.-China fight derails Qualcomm deal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In what the EU
chief called a “major concession,” U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on
Wednesday to refrain from imposing car tariffs while the two sides launch
negotiations to cut other trade barriers, easing the threat of a transatlantic
trade war.
----The breakthrough came as the bitter trade dispute between the United States and China appeared to claim a major casualty, with China not approving U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm Inc’s (QCOM.O) takeover of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O), likely shutting the door on the $44 billion deal.
Qualcomm needed Beijing’s okay because China accounts for nearly two-thirds of its revenue, but a deadline at midday on Thursday in Asia passed without word from China’s regulator. Qualcomm had said on Wednesday it was dropping the bid.
Trump said Europe agreed to increase purchases of U.S. liquefied natural
gas and lower trade barriers to American soybeans, aiding U.S. farmers and the
energy sector.
“Soybeans is a big deal. And the European Union is going to start,
almost immediately, to buy a lot of soybeans,” Trump told reporters after the
meeting.
Trump later tweeted that work on documents was “moving along quickly,”
adding that the meeting with Juncker had “great warmth.”
“A breakthrough has been quickly made that nobody thought possible!”
Trump wrote, marking a turnaround from July 15, when he called the 28-nation
European Union a “foe” on trade.
----European governments and EU officials hailed the Trump-Juncker agreement as a major success.
“Breakthrough achieved that can avoid trade war and save millions of
jobs! Great for global economy,” tweeted German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s economy
minister, Peter Altmaier.
More
In other news, President Trump’s Soviet style
subsidies to his farm state voters drew flak from all sides. And another assessment on trade wars.
“I play it very loose. I don’t carry a briefcase. I try not to
schedule too many meetings. I leave my door open. . . . I prefer to come to
work each day and just see what develops.”
Donald Trump. The Art of the
Deal.
Top Republicans rip Trump’s farm-aid plan as ‘welfare,’ ‘Soviet type of economy’
By Mike
Murphy Published: July 24,
2018 7:19 p.m. ET
Corker, Sasse, others assail $12 billion plan to help farmers hurt by tariffs
Republican senators from agricultural states were quick to condemn President Donald Trump’s plan to offer farmers $12 billion in emergency aid to offset the impact of the administration’s escalating trade war with China.A number of top lawmakers said the plan does little to solve the overall problem — the Trump administration’s own trade policies — and goes against free-market principles.
In a statement, Tennessee Republican Sen. Bob Corker called Trump’s trade policy “incoherent” and that the administration was “offering welfare to farmers to solve a problem they themselves created.”
Corker later told Bloomberg News that it was “a terrible policy” that should have Congress revolting.
Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., said in a statement: “This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and the White House’s ‘plan’ is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches. . . .America’s farmers don’t want to be paid to lose — they want to win by feeding the world.”
---- Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., said Trump’s bailout plan was downright un-American.
“This is becoming more and more like a Soviet type of economy here. Commissars deciding who should be granted waivers. Commissars in the administration trying to figure out how they’re going to sprinkle around benefits,” he said, according to Politico.
Trump appeared undeterred, tweeting Tuesday that “Tariffs are the greatest!”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-republicans-rip-trumps-farm-aid-plan-as-welfare-soviet-type-of-economy-2018-07-24
6 Reasons Why a Trade War with the Chinese Is Pointless
By Patrick
Barron Free
Trade25 July 18
In a recent post I explained that China’s manipulations of its own
currency hurt only herself and not her trading partners and, therefore,
retaliatory tariffs were not warranted and would be self-defeating anyway.
China harms herself by causing her own money supply to expand, which destroys
capital through malinvestment and causes prices to rise domestically.
Retaliatory tariffs cause American goods to rise in price, resulting in a
recession and generally lower standard of living. Few economists claim
otherwise.
It seems that everyone is in favor of free trade, as long as it is the
other guy who must compete with foreign products. When it comes to their own
products, the most typical response from American manufacturers begins with the
caveat that “although free trade is beneficial most of the time, it causes harm
under certain circumstances.” There follows a convoluted chain of
cause-and-effect purporting to prove that lower priced foreign goods would
hollow out America’s key manufacturing industries and turn America into a
second class nation.
The purpose of this brief response is to counter these claims and explain why understanding economic theory is vital to the argument in favor of free trade.
There are two books which address the fact that we cannot experiment with an economy the way that physical scientists do. We must use logic to form irrefutable conclusions of what MUST happen, even if we cannot see it! The first is Frederic Bastiat’s early nineteenth century classic That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen . Henry Hazlitt’s updated the book a hundred years later in order to appeal to modern readers. His Economics in One Lesson employs a series of short stories to illustrate that one must always consider the economic effects of an intervention on all and not just a few actors, plus, that one must look to the long term effects of an intervention and not just the short term effects.
So, let’s use logic to consider the effects of China’s economic interventions on itself and its trading partners who do nothing to retaliate against China in any way.
More
https://www.cobdencentre.org/2018/07/6-reasons-why-a-trade-war-with-the-chinese-is-pointless/
Elsewhere. one of the Fangs fell back to earth. Others to follow, perhaps?
Facebook’s Record Selloff Drags Down Other Tech Stocks
By Jeran WittensteinAn exchange-traded fund tied to the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2.3 percent in extended trading before paring some of the losses. Netflix Inc. shed as much as 3.6 percent, while Alphabet Inc. slumped 2.4 percent. Twitter Inc., which reports earnings on Friday, fell as much as 6.5 percent.
Most of Wall Street expected Facebook to show little signs of the turmoil the company had faced from public scrutiny over privacy issues in the second quarter. Of the 48 analysts covering the company, only two recommended selling the stock ahead of the earnings report, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Facebook’s selloff in extended trading on Wednesday, which settled at 20 percent, would be the biggest drop ever on a closing basis if sustained Thursday. The Menlo Park, California-based company’s market capitalization is on track to drop by about $126 billion, more than three times the value of Ford Motor Co.
Amazon.com Inc. is the last major technology stock to report earnings this week with its release scheduled Thursday after the market closes. Apple Inc. reports July 31.
“One of
the problems when you become successful is that jealousy and envy inevitably
follow. There are people—I categorize them as life’s losers—who get their sense
of accomplishment and achievement from trying to stop others. As far as I’m
concerned, if they had any real ability they wouldn’t be fighting me, they’d be
doing something constructive themselves.”
Donald Trump. The Art of the
Deal.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks or bent politicians
today, they’ll be back in droves as usual tomorrow.
Today, economic recoveries
from trough to peak. The current
recovery is already the second longest on record this July, just 11 months shy of the
longest recovery ever recorded of 120 months. But back then they weren’t embarking on a trade
and currency war of unpredictable outcome. Back then they hadn’t just
experienced a decade of ZIRP and in some parts of Europe NIRP. Back then the
central banksters weren’t trying to “normalise” interest rates. But not to
worry, “this time it’s different.” What could possibly go wrong?
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
BUSINESS
CYCLE
REFERENCE DATES |
DURATION IN
MONTHS
|
||||
Peak
|
Trough
|
Contraction
|
Expansion
|
Cycle
|
|
Quarterly dates
are in parentheses |
Peak
to Trough |
Previous trough
to this peak |
Trough from
Previous Trough |
Peak from
Previous Peak |
|
June 1857(II) October 1860(III) April 1865(I) June 1869(II) October 1873(III) March 1882(I) March 1887(II) July 1890(III) January 1893(I) December 1895(IV) June 1899(III) September 1902(IV) May 1907(II) January 1910(I) January 1913(I) August 1918(III) January 1920(I) May 1923(II) October 1926(III) August 1929(III) May 1937(II) February 1945(I) November 1948(IV) July 1953(II) August 1957(III) April 1960(II) December 1969(IV) November 1973(IV) January 1980(I) July 1981(III) July 1990(III) March 2001(I) December 2007 (IV) |
December 1854 (IV)
December 1858 (IV) June 1861 (III) December 1867 (I) December 1870 (IV) March 1879 (I) May 1885 (II) April 1888 (I) May 1891 (II) June 1894 (II) June 1897 (II) December 1900 (IV) August 1904 (III) June 1908 (II) January 1912 (IV) December 1914 (IV) March 1919 (I) July 1921 (III) July 1924 (III) November 1927 (IV) March 1933 (I) June 1938 (II) October 1945 (IV) October 1949 (IV) May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) July 1980 (III) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV) June 2009 (II) |
--
18 8 32 18 65 38 13 10 17 18 18 23 13 24 23 7 18 14 13 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 18 |
--
30 22 46 18 34 36 22 27 20 18 24 21 33 19 12 44 10 22 27 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 |
--
48 30 78 36 99 74 35 37 37 36 42 44 46 43 35 51 28 36 40 64 63 88 48 55 47 34 117 52 64 28 100 128 91 |
--
-- 40 54 50 52 101 60 40 30 35 42 39 56 32 36 67 17 40 41 34 93 93 45 56 49 32 116 47 74 18 108 128 81 |
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Solar power to the people:third of London councils sign up to cut-price renewable energy scheme
Mayor Sadiq Khan’s Solar Together London initiative allows homeowners to join together and use their collective buying power to negotiate discounts on buying and installing panels.
Ruth Bloomfield July 25 2018
Thousands of Londoners could take advantage of the heatwave to help the
environment and cut their power bills by joining a cut-price scheme to install solar panels.More than one in three boroughs have joined Mayor Sadiq Khan’s Solar Together London initiative, launched this year.
With the weather in the capital this week set to outdo the likes of Miami and Jamaica, the project allows homeowners to join together and use their collective buying power to negotiate significant discounts on the regular cost of buying and installing panels.
The project began with a pilot scheme in the boroughs of Brent, Ealing, Merton and Sutton.
Some 4,000 people signed up, and now eight more councils have joined in: Camden, Haringey, Havering, Islington, Kensington & Chelsea, Newham, Waltham Forest and Westminster. More will inevitably follow if it proves popular.
The renewable energy scheme works by holding a “reverse auction”,
offering firms the chance to bid for contracts to install the panels, and
encouraging them to undercut each other in order to win the business.
This technique is regularly used in the Netherlands and Belgium, where
use of solar panels is far more mainstream than in the UK.
----The Energy Savings Trust estimates that solar panels are worth around £320 per year in London, based on savings on bills and earnings from selling excess energy back to the Grid.
They may also add a little to the value of a property as the prospect of low bills will appeal to buyers.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June.
DJIA: 24,271 +221 Down. NASDAQ:
7,510 +267 Down. SP500: 2,718 +169 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April. May
and June. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to
cash signal.
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