Monday, 15 January 2018

What Is Crude Oil Signalling?



Baltic Dry Index. 1279 -24    Brent Crude 69.97

"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are so many legal ways to be dishonest. “

Al Capone.

With American markets closed today, honouring Martin Luther King, we look at Asia following up on last week’s stock market melt up. Is it all boom times from here, or is it market goes BOOM from here? I suspect that we won’t have to wait too long to find out. Maybe “Okasanman” knows the answer.

The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.

Warren Buffett.

Asian Stocks Climb on Growth Outlook; Yen Rises: Markets Wrap

By Adam Haigh
Updated on 15 January 2018, 05:20 GMT
Asian stocks built on the strong start to this year and headed for a fresh record high amid optimism in global growth. The yen advanced as traders continued to pile out of bets against the Japanese currency.

Hong Kong’s benchmark is making a run at its record close since the global financial crisis, and Japanese equities were rising even in face of the yen’s appreciation. Softbank Group was leading the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, benefiting from speculation of a listing for its mobile unit. The yuan touched a two-year high after the People’s Bank of China raised the currency’s fixing to the highest since May 2016.

Both the yen and euro have been lifted by bets the Japanese and European central banks this year will scale back their monetary stimulus. Elsewhere, West Texas Intermediate oil continues to trade above $64, and bitcoin slipped closer towards $13,000. U.S. markets are shut Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday after the S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at an all-time high.

Improvements in the global economy are buoying sentiment in the early part of 2018 and equities are building on the stellar gains seen last year. Retail sales spurred optimism in the American economy and JPMorgan Chase & Co. signaled the recent tax cut law will boost profits. An acceleration in U.S. core inflation offered another sign that the recovery is gathering pace nine years after the global recession.

Growth data from China this week will be closely watched, along with talks to form a coalition government in Germany, following signs of progress last week. Money managers will assess progress in corporate America this week with further earnings releases, while results are due across the world from firms in a range of sectors.

Here’s what to watch out for this week:
  • Earnings season ramps up: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., ASML Holdings NV, Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among some notable releases.
  • Industrial production in the U.S. probably increased in December, a report may show Wednesday, completing a solid year for manufacturing. U.S. housing starts probably slipped in December for the first time in three months as frigid winter weather impeded work, forecasts show ahead of Thursday’s release.
  • The Bank of Canada’s interest-rate decision comes Wednesday. Monetary policy announcements are also due in South Korea, South Africa and Turkey.
  • China releases fourth quarter GDP, December industrial production and retail sales Thursday.
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Today, just more signs that the 21st century will increasingly be China’s. Probably Asia’s if East Asia can stop President Trump starting a nuclear war with North Korea, and South Korea doesn’t go bust in Bitcoin mania.

Bundesbank to Include Yuan in Currency Reserves, Dombret Says

By Jeff Black
Germany’s central bank has decided to include the Chinese yuan in its own currency reserves, Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said.

"The renminbi is used increasingly as part of the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves for example the ECB included the RMB but also other European central banks did so,” Dombret said during a speech in Hong Kong Monday. “Clearly as the second largest economy in the world, policy initiatives in China are being felt around the world.”

The step follows a similar move last June by the European Central Bank, of which the Bundesbank is a part. By including yuan in its own reserve pile, the German authority is pushing the currency further along the road to full internationalization that it started when it became a member of the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket in 2016.

Dombret said he couldn’t comment on the amount that the Bundesbank would invest.

January 13, 2018 / 3:21 PM

China says Iran nuclear deal not derailed, pledges constructive role

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China on Saturday pledged to continue playing a constructive role in maintaining and implementing the Iran nuclear deal, after U.S. President Donald Trump set an ultimatum to fix “disastrous flaws” in a deal.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif by phone that implementation of the deal had not been “derailed” but would face “some new complicating factors”, the state news agency Xinhua reported. 

Continuing to implement the nuclear deal was the responsibility of all parties concerned and the common wish of the international community, Wang was quoted as saying during the call, which took place on a visit to Rwanda.

The deal would help uphold the international non-proliferation regime, maintain regional peace and stability and solve “other hot issues” around the world, he said.

He urged Iran to remain calm and continue to fulfil its obligations under the deal.

On Friday, Trump agreed to waive sanctions against Iran that were lifted as part of the international deal but said it would be the last time unless conditions were met to fix what he called “significant flaws” in the deal.

His ultimatum puts pressure on Europeans - key backers and parties to the 2015 international agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program – to satisfy Trump, who wants the pact strengthened with a separate agreement within 120 days.

Zarif responded on Twitter that the deal was not renegotiable and that Trump’s stance “amounts to desperate attempts to undermine a solid multilateral agreement”.
More

January 14, 2018 / 7:17 PM

German clothing retailer C&A eyes China cooperation

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German clothing retailer C&A is examining partnerships and other types of outside investment as it develops a turnaround plan focusing on China and other emerging markets, its owner said on Sunday.

Swiss-based COFRA Holding issued a statement in response to a report in Spiegel Online that C&A, which was founded in the 19th century and remains in family ownership, was close to being sold to a group of unnamed Chinese investors.

“We are fully committed to a successful, future-proof C&A business and as such at C&A we have embarked on a transformation and growth programme,” a COFRA Holding representative said in a statement emailed to Reuters.

“The ongoing transformation of C&A includes an investigation of ways to accelerate in high growth priority areas.”

These included “China, emerging markets and Digital and ... could potentially include partnerships and other types of additional external investment.”

C&A was founded as a confectionery business in 1841 by brothers Clemens and August Brenninkmeyer, and today runs more than 1,500 stores, employs 35,000 people and operates in 18 European countries.

The business, controlled via COFRA by more than 1,000 descendants of the Brenninkmeyers, has struggled of late to compete with fast-fashion brands and online retailers.

Alain Caparros, formerly of German supermarket chain REWE, was hired as chief executive of C&A in mid-2017, replacing Philippe Brenninkmeijer in a break from the tradition of a family member running the company.

S. Korea to Decide on Crypto Trading Only After Government Talks

By Kyungji Cho and Shinhye Kang
15 January 2018, 02:33 GMT
South Korea’s government will decide whether to pursue a bill to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges only after “sufficient discussions and opinion coordination” across departments, the Office for Government Policy Coordination said.

The nation will in the meantime begin a planned real-name system for cryptocurrency accounts and take firm measures on illegal trading, the Office said in an emailed statement on Monday. It also said that South Korea will provide support to research and development relating to blockchain technology.

The announcement came after comments by the country’s Justice Ministry last week that it was preparing a bill to ban cryptocurrency trading via exchanges. That was later downplayed by a spokesman for President Moon Jae-in, who said the proposal is one among several and that nothing has been finalized.

Korean authorities have sought measures to curb cryptocurrency speculation as the nation emerged as something of a ground zero for the speculative mania, playing host to several of the world’s most active exchanges. Bitcoin prices in the country are persistently higher than those in the U.S. It was trading at about a 37 percent premium on Monday in Seoul.

We close with commodity/jnflation news.  Is the rising oil price a temporary speculation, or a sign of inflation’s return?

January 15, 2018 / 12:41 AM

Brent crude oil rises to $70 on output cuts, ignores North America rig gains

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude oil prices rose to $70 a barrel on Monday, supported by ongoing output cuts led by OPEC and Russia, and ignoring a rise in U.S. and Canadian drilling activity that points to higher future output in North America.

Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $70 per barrel at 0558 GMT, up 13 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $64.53 a barrel, up 23 cents.
Both benchmarks last week reached levels not seen since December 2014, with Brent touching $70.05 a barrel and WTI reaching as high as $64.77.

ANZ bank said on Monday oil prices had recently risen on data that continued to show the market is tightening.

Oil markets have been well supported by production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia which are aimed at propping up crude prices.

The cuts started in January last year and are set to last through 2018, and they have coincided with healthy demand growth, pushing up crude prices by more than 13 percent since early December.

But other factors, including political risk, have also supported crude.

“Tighter fundamentals are (the) main driver to the rally in prices, but geopolitical risk and currency moves along with speculative money in tandem have exacerbated the move,” U.S. bank JPMorgan said in a note.

Attracted by tighter supplies and strong consumption, financial investors have raised their net long U.S. crude futures positions, which would profit from higher prices, to a new record, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
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"From a strictly economic point of view, buying gold in a major inflation and holding it probably presents the least risk of capital loss of any investment or speculation."

Henry Hazlitt

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, dodgy dealings in Japan. Is this dodgy twitter account real or just front running, officially or unofficially for the BOJ and government? The Deep State? What could possibly go wrong?
“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.”

Mad Magazine.

The Mysterious Twitter User Drawing a Swarm of Japan Traders

By Shoko Oda
Updated on 15 January 2018, 05:24 GMT
On a day when billions in profits and losses would be determined by split-second trades, the salaried professionals of Japan’s financial markets were glued to their news terminals. Another group was staring at the feed of an anonymous Twitter account.

It was shortly after noon on Jan. 29, 2016, and people with money at stake were waiting for the Bank of Japan to announce its monetary policy. While the decision’s date is set in advance, nobody knows its timing.

“It’s a negative interest rate bazooka!” wrote the Twitter user who goes by the handle Okasanman, attaching a screenshot of an article just published on a local news website, showing the BOJ was discussing introducing minus rates as its latest shock-and-awe stimulus weapon.

As stock futures jumped and the yen tumbled, some traders expressed gratitude for the warning. About 15 minutes later, the bank said it was taking borrowing costs below zero.

“This post saved my life," one user gushed in reply. “The profits I made are thanks to it.”

‘Locust Lord’

Okasanman has been dubbed a “locust lord” because the account attracts a swarm of traders who seek to profit from the prolific tweets on everything from global economic data releases to the latest twists in developing political situations. While the account only points to already available information, the speed at which it does -- and the breadth of its coverage -- has built a following that’s larger than that of the BOJ.

"How is it so fast?" asked Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo, where he helps oversee $594 million. "I’m very curious to know."

Okasanman’s identity and motivation for spending hours every day providing information to more than 146,000 followers -- as of the time of publication -- for free are a mystery. The person or people behind the handle didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment. But the account is another example of how microbloggers -- from anonymous short sellers to market commentators such as Zerohedge -- are becoming a feature of how information is transmitted through modern financial markets.

The Okasanman account scavenges through a huge range of sources, at all hours, to find potentially market-moving news. That includes newspapers and magazines, financial data providers, disclosures to the stock exchange, and tweets on accidents or fires. Many appear to be automated, though manually written commentary shows a love of groan-worthy puns and occasionally crude content.

In August, the account was among the first to tweet an exclusive report by a local magazine, not normally known for its market-moving scoops, that pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca Plc had made an unsuccessful takeover bid for Japanese drug company Daiichi Sankyo Co. -- and that a purchase was still possible. Daiichi Sankyo shares surged the most in nine years.

“His tweets are absolutely crucial," said Naoki Murakami, a prominent day trader with more than 38,000 followers himself.

On any given day, the tweeting is relentless. On Dec. 20, the account sent 111 tweets, starting 12:44 a.m. and ending at 11:46 p.m. Cryptocurrencies: 33 tweets. The U.S. Senate vote on the tax bill: 3. Other topics included a disgraced sumo wrestler, a report on North Korean ICBM tests, and the latest Pokemon movie.

Okasanman “must have researched what sources have been fastest over the years” for given topics, said Katsuhiro Yoneshige, founder and chief executive officer of JX Press Corp., which develops apps that source breaking news from social media posts. “It’s probably not something you can build in a day.”
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I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago...I shot my broker.

Groucho Marx
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

A major step forward in organic electronics

Complementary logic circuits based on high-performance n-type organic electrochemical transistor

Date: January 11, 2018

Source: Linköping University

Summary: Researchers have developed the world's first complementary electrochemical logic circuits that can function stably for long periods in water. This is a highly significant breakthrough in the development of bioelectronics.

Researchers at the Laboratory of Organic Electronics, Linköping University, have developed the world's first complementary electrochemical logic circuits that can function stably for long periods in water. This is a highly significant breakthrough in the development of bioelectronics.

The first printable organic electrochemical transistors were presented by researchers at LiU as early as 2002, and research since then has progressed rapidly. Several organic electronic components, such as light-emitting diodes and electrochromic displays, are already commercially available.

The dominating material used until now has been PEDOT:PSS, which is a p-type material, in which the charge carriers are holes. In order to construct effective electron components, a complementary material, n-type, is required, in which the charge carriers are electrons.

It has been difficult to find a sufficiently stable polymer material, one that can operate in water media and in which the long polymer chains can sustain high current when the material is doped.

In an article in the scientific journal Advanced Materials, Simone Fabiano, head of research in the Organic Nanoelectronics group at the Laboratory of Organic Electronics, presents, together with his colleagues, results from an n-type conducting material in which the ladder-type structure of the polymer backbone favours ambient stability and high current when doped. One example is BBL, poly(benzimidazobenzophenanthroline), a material often used in solar cell research.

Postdoctoral researcher Hengda Sun has found a method to create thick films of the material. The thicker the film, the greater the conductivity.

"We have used spray-coating to produce films up to 200 nm thick. These can reach extremely high conductivities," says Simone Fabiano.

The method can also be successfully used together with printed electronics across large surfaces.
Hengda Sun has also shown that the circuits function for long periods, both in the presence of oxygen and water.

"This may appear at first glance to be a small advance in a specialised field, but what is great about it is that it has major consequences for many applications. We can now construct complementary logic circuits -- inverters, sensors and other components -- that function in moist surroundings," says Simone Fabiano.
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 “Hello, Juncker,' Wobbly Mrs. May said, 'is that you?'
'Let's pretend it isn't,' growled Juncker, 'and see what happens.”

Prime Minister May, with apologies to A.A. Milne, and Winnie-the-Pooh

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: 24,719 +265 Up. NASDAQ:  6,903 +297 Up. SP500: 2,674 +199 Up.

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