Tuesday, 16 January 2018

2018 = 1929?



Baltic Dry Index. 1264 -15    Brent Crude 70.00

If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.

John Maynard Keynes

Does history repeat? Is 2018 merely the latest repetition of 1929? Well history never repeats exactly, but it often gets uncannily close.  Will 2018 get uncannily close to repeating 1929? To this old dinosaur market follower since 1968, it’s getting uncomfortably close. 

Below, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Buy more!

In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone.

John Kenneth Galbraith.


January 16, 2018 / 12:50 AM

Asian shares shrug off losses, euro near three-year top

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares pushed higher on Tuesday, erasing early modest losses while the euro stood near a 3-year peak on rising expectations that the European Central Bank could pare its monetary stimulus.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.4 percent.
U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Australian shares slipped 0.3 percent, as miners were pressured by weaker Chinese iron ore prices. The materials and mining index .AXMM dropped as much as 0.8 percent, with mining giants BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP.AX) and Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO.AX) each falling over 1 percent.

Chinese iron ore futures tumbled 2 percent on Monday, as stockpiles of the steelmaking commodity at China’s ports surged to the highest since at least 2004, with weaker steel prices also adding pressure. [IRONORE/]

Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 added 0.8 percent as the yen's recent surge took a breather, with expectations for strong corporate earnings underpinning sentiment.

The euro edged up slightly to $1.2261 EUR=, within sight of its Monday high of $1.2296, its loftiest peak since December 2014.

The euro blipped higher on Monday and German benchmark bond yields hit session highs after European Central Bank rate-setter Ardo Hansson said the central bank could end its bond purchase scheme in one go after September if the economy and inflation develop as expected.

Adding to the euro’s ascent, data showed the trade surplus in the 19-country euro area rose to its highest level in eight months, indicating companies were so far weathering the impact of a stronger currency.
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Bitcoin Frenzy Helps Crypto Hedge Funds Reap 1,100% Gains

By Bei Hu, Nishant Kumar, Hema Parmar, and Klaus Wille
16 January 2018, 03:08 GMT
While most of the world’s institutional investors watched from the sidelines as cryptocurrencies surged last year, a small group of hedge fund managers piled in.

Call them visionaries or just plain lucky, but boy did they hit the jackpot.

The nine cryptocurrency hedge funds tracked by Eurekahedge Pte soared 1,167 percent as a group in 2017, according to preliminary figures. While that trailed the 1,403 percent gain in bitcoin, it comfortably trounced the 8 percent return by hedge funds globally.

The numbers provide an early look at how professional traders are faring in the world’s wildest investment boom. Even as luminaries from Warren Buffett to Ray Dalio call cryptocurrencies a bubble, a growing number of wealthy individuals, family offices and institutions are looking for ways to gain exposure.


Hedge funds offer investors more than just a wager on rising cryptocurrency prices; their strategies also include market making, early-stage equity investing and bitcoin lending. While those bets proved a drag on returns in 2017, they should help cushion funds against losses during market downturns.

Still, the products aren’t for everyone. Managers of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, which surged 1,496 percent last year after fees, warned clients in a November presentation that they should only invest a fraction of their net worth -- an amount they can afford to lose.
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China Escalates Crackdown on Cryptocurrency Trading

Bloomberg News
Updated on 15 January 2018, 11:42 GMT
China is escalating its clampdown on cryptocurrency trading, targeting online platforms and mobile apps that offer exchange-like services, according to people familiar with the matter.

While authorities banned cryptocurrency exchanges last year, they’ve recently noted an uptick in activity on alternative venues. The government plans to block domestic access to homegrown and offshore platforms that enable centralized trading, the people said, without being more specific about how policy makers define such platforms.

Authorities will also target individuals and companies that provide market-making, settlement and clearing services for centralized trading, the people said, asking not to be named because the information is private. Small peer-to-peer transactions aren’t being targeted, they said.

Bitcoin fell 1.2 percent to $13,580.50 at 11:36 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg composite pricing.

The Chinese government’s rolling clampdown has roiled global markets for bitcoin and other digital tokens over the past few months. Regulators around the world are stepping up scrutiny of cryptocurrencies amid concerns over excessive speculation, money laundering and tax evasion.


Up until early last year, China was the most active market for bitcoin trading on exchanges. It’s still home to some of the biggest bitcoin miners, though they’ve begun looking elsewhere as local authorities call for curbs on the industry.

China’s central bank didn’t immediately respond to a faxed request for comment.

Finally, it’s coming round to that time in Switzerland again. Now where did I leave my skis and private jet?

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

23-26 January 2018 Davos-Klosters, Switzerland

Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World

The global context has changed dramatically: geostrategic fissures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging political, economic and social consequences. Realpolitik is no longer just a relic of the Cold War. Economic prosperity and social cohesion are not one and the same. The global commons cannot protect or heal itself.

Politically, new and divisive narratives are transforming governance. Economically, policies are being formulated to preserve the benefits of global integration while limiting shared obligations such as sustainable development, inclusive growth and managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Socially, citizens yearn for responsive leadership; yet, a collective purpose remains elusive despite ever-expanding social networks. All the while, the social contract between states and their citizens continues to erode.

The 48th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting therefore aims to rededicate leaders from all walks of life to developing a shared narrative to improve the state of the world. The programme, initiatives and projects of the meeting are focused on Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World. By coming together at the start of the year, we can shape the future by joining this unparalleled global effort in co-design, co-creation and collaboration.
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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.
Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, China gets tough(er.) In effect tightens. That’s America and China tightening and the ECB about to tighten. What happens next? Canada’s banks accused of being derivatives manipulators? They wouldn’t do that, would they?

China Vows to Toughen Rules on $38 Trillion Banking Industry

Bloomberg News
15 January 2018, 02:37 GMT Updated on 15 January 2018, 03:54 GMT
China’s banking regulator pledged to continue its crackdown on malpractice in the $38 trillion industry in 2018, vowing to tackle everything from poor corporate governance and violation of lending policies to cross-holdings of risky financial products.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled its regulatory priorities for the year in a statement on Saturday. They include:
  • Inspecting the funding source of banks’ shareholders and ensuring they have obtained their stakes in a regular manner
  • Examining banks’ compliance with rules restricting loans to real estate developers, local governments, industries burdened by overcapacity, and some home buyers
  • Looking into banks’ interbank activities and wealth management businesses.
The statement comes after China’s financial regulators started 2018 with a flurry of rules to plug loopholes uncovered in last year’s deleveraging campaign, showcasing their determination to limit broader risks to the financial system. Still, analysts have warned that the moves will make it more difficult for companies to obtain financing from loans, equities and bonds and could undermine economic growth.

The “CBRC’s regulatory storm continues” with the weekend announcement covering almost all aspects of banks’ daily operations, Bocom International Holdings Co. analysts Jaclyn Wang and Hannah Han wrote in a note. “We believe challenges for smaller banks in the current regulatory environment remain high,” they wrote, noting that curbs on off-balance-sheet lending and interbank activities may drag on profitability.

Read more on China’s new year rules to reduce systemic risks

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. rose in Hong Kong on Monday morning, while smaller lenders including Huishang Bank Co. and Bank of Tianjin Co. fell.

While the CBRC will allow a grace period for rectifying some irregularities, any new business after May 1, 2017, must be corrected or the bank will face punishment, according to the statement. Banks are required to submit an initial self-inspection report on their 2017 operations by March 10, and another two reports by June and December detailing their progress.
“CBRC’s new rule basically covers every corner of the banking system and shows their increasingly tougher stance toward financial turbulence," China Securities Co. analysts led by Huang Wentao wrote in a note. “Banks, especially smaller ones, should proactively adjust their business models.”

Six Canada Banks Accused of Manipulating Derivatives Benchmark

By Doug Alexander and Kartikay Mehrotra
15 January 2018, 22:19 GMT Updated on 16 January 2018, 05:00 GMT
A Colorado-based pension fund accused Canada’s six biggest banks and three foreign lenders of conspiring to manipulate a Canadian interest rate benchmark to boost “illegitimate profits" on derivatives trades for several years until 2014.

The Fire & Police Pension Association of Colorado alleged in a New York court filing that the banks sought to boost their earnings from derivatives trades by manipulating the Canadian Dealer Offered Rate, or CDOR, a benchmark lending rate. The alleged violations, including conspiracy under the U.S. Sherman Act and manipulation of the Commodity Exchange Act, took place for almost seven years, according to the filing.

The proposed class-action dispute names Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada, as well as HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG. All the banks declined to comment on the matter.

The fund, which manages about $4.66 billion, claims banks “reduced the amount of interest owed,” resulting in investors paying more or receiving less than the amount generated through trading derivatives based on CDOR. The pension fund said it made $1.2 billion in CDOR-based derivatives trades over the period.

“Defendants conspired to suppress CDOR by making artificially lower submissions that did not reflect the true rate at which they were lending Canadian dollars in North America," according to the Jan. 12 filing in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. “Economic analyses show that defendants consistently made CDOR submissions well-below prevailing Canadian dollar money market rates, inexplicably offering to lend for less than what it cost them to borrow funds."

The banks held on average more than $1 trillion in CDOR-based swap contracts with U.S. counterparties during the period covered by the class-action suit, according to the filing.

Representatives for the Canadian Bankers Association, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions declined to comment.
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To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers…The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.
Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Panasonic Ramps Up Solar Cell Production as Tesla Starts Making Solar Roofs at Gigafactory 2

Tesla confirms solar tile production began at the Buffalo Gigafactory in December, and the first Solar Roofs are now reaching non-employee homeowners.
Julia Pyper
In December 2016, Panasonic and Tesla finalized an agreement to begin manufacturing solar PV cells and modules at the "Gigafactory 2" in Buffalo, New York.

Under the arrangement, Panasonic agreed to cover the capital costs associated with the factory and Tesla agreed to purchase Panasonic's custom-manufactured solar products.

"These high-efficiency PV cells and modules will be used to produce solar panels in the non-solar roof products," according to Tesla's statement. "When production of the solar roof begins, Tesla will also incorporate Panasonic's cells into the many kinds of solar glass tile roofs that Tesla will be manufacturing."

Production of Tesla's Solar Roof product did not begin for months after the initial announcement. But one year later -- following delays and a brief trial run -- Panasonic reports that cell manufacturing for the solar roof is now officially underway.

“Panasonic is already inside that factory making solar panels. That started in October of last year," said Peter Fannon, vice president of technology policy at Panasonic Corporation of North America, in an interview at CES. "Also, we are just now beginning to manufacture cells.”

The Japanese multinational made an initial $260 million investment in the Buffalo facility, where it makes HIT (heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer) solar cells for Tesla. With the plant now up and running, Panasonic is prepared to invest more.

“We expect that investment, along with Tesla, as it grows, will grow with it," Fannon said.

But it's unclear how much growing is going on.

Tesla completed the first solar roof installations on the homes of executives and employees in August. Little was heard about the solar roof after that, save for reports of several more installations for employees. The tiles were initially produced at small scale at the former SolarCity pilot production line in Fremont, California.

Last summer, Tesla CTO JB Straubel said solar roof production at Gigafactory 2 would ramp up “in a substantial way” by the end of 2017, and increased the company's goal to achieve 2 gigawatts of solar panel capacity per year. But as the new year arrived, the status of Tesla's solar tile production was still murky.

Tesla confirmed today, however, that solar roof manufacturing began in Buffalo in December. The company also said that it is now starting Solar Roof Textured and Smooth installations for non-employee homeowners.

Fannon said that Panasonic has started to boost its operations to meet growing solar roof demand.
“As I understand it, they’re taking orders, and they have a big backlog already," he said. "We’re growing the cell manufacturing as we speak."
More
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/panasonic-ramps-up-solar-cell-production-at-teslas-buffalo-gigafactory?utm_source=Storage&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GTMStorage#gs.ZQcuQ_E

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.
Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations. 1776.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: 24,719 +265 Up. NASDAQ:  6,903 +297 Up. SP500: 2,674 +199 Up.

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