Friday 5 January 2018

Is Inflation Back?



Baltic Dry Index. 1341 +79     Brent Crude 68.00

By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.  By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some.  The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.  Those to whom the system brings windfalls . . . become 'profiteers', who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished not less than the proletariat.  As the inflation proceeds . . . all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless.

John Maynard Keynes.

Is inflation back? Well maybe not back in the 1970s sense yet, but in the process of emerging like Dracula from his coffin, and getting ready to terrorise the planet.  Did the central banksters flood the world with too much fiat money for far too long? Are the 99 percent who largely missed out on the central bankster’s free money socialism for banksters and squids decade, now about to get hammered with a decade of inflation. 

Was bitcoin mania merely another sign of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money?  I think tomorrow will not be like today which was like yesterday.  Commodities and the Baltic Dry (shipping) Index might well be outliers for the return of fiat money’s inherent flaw of inflation.

Below, a commodity boom is underway. But is it real or just trading in fiat money for intrinsic wealth? Is a decade of fiat currency turmoil now the next shoe to fall?

Global Factory Boom Sends Commodities Prices Soaring

By Javier Blas and Steve Matthews
  • Rising raw material prices could pose risks for central banks
  • Blackstone lists an oil rally among its top 2018 surprises
The strongest manufacturing activity since the aftermath of the global financial crisis is slowly draining commodities surpluses, sending prices to a 3-year high as investors pour money into everything from oil to copper.

Rarely has the outlook for a New Year been as encouraging as it is today," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London.

With factories around the world humming, demand for raw materials is fast increasing. The Bloomberg Commodities Spot Index, tracking the price of 22 raw materials, jumped to its highest since December 2014 on Thursday. The gauge has risen for a record 14 days in a row.

For the global economy, the pickup in commodities poses a conundrum. It could show how years of ultra-lax monetary policies have finally boosted activity and may even be enough to revive long-dormant inflationary pressures. The risk is inflation reemerges faster than central banks expect, forcing them to raise interest rates more aggressively than they now plan or investors anticipate.

According to a September study by the International Monetary Fund, a 10 percent gain in the price of oil increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage points. Such an effect might help push U.S. inflation back towards the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Research from the central bank published in October found the last plunge in crude had shaved 0.2 percentage point from core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.

Already this year, Brent crude, the global benchmark, has jumped to nearly $70 a barrel, and palladium, a metal used to reduce cars tailpipe emissions, hit an all-time high.

"The oil market is tightening, and it’s tightening very quickly," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd. in London "We see very strong demand, and it’s really broad based.”

After years of worrying about deflationary risks, investors are starting to think in the other direction. Byron R. Wien, an executive at Blackstone Group LP, included a rise in U.S. oil prices to $80 a barrel among its top 10 potential surprises for 2018 in global markets.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-04/global-factory-boom-boosts-commodity-prices-from-oil-to-copper

January 5, 2018 / 1:14 AM

Asian shares near record high, dollar weak as job, wage data awaited

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares inched closer to a record high on Friday as U.S. jobs data pointed to firm economic growth although the greenback was soft as the spectre of benign inflation capped domestic bond yields.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose nearly 0.3 percent in morning trade to 584.5, with benchmark indexes in Australia and South Korea .KS11 up about 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

The MSCI index was about 1 percent shy of its all-time peak of 591.5 hit in November 2007.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 gained 0.5 percent to a 26-year high.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS has risen 2.1 percent so far this week, putting it on course to log its best weekly performance since July.

The U.S. ADP National Employment Report on Thursday showed U.S. private employers added 250,000 jobs USADP=ECI in December, the biggest monthly increase since March and well above economists’ expectations of a rise of 190,000.

That helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI sail past the 25,000-mark for the first time. S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.40 percent while the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 0.18 percent, both notching record closing highs.[.N]

The data also boosted expectations on Friday’s payroll data USNFAR=ECI by U.S. Labor Department, where economist have forecast nonfarm job growth of 190,000 in December.

Despite signs of a strong U.S. labour market, the dollar was soft, hovering just above its three-month low against a basket of major currencies.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-near-record-high-dollar-weak-as-job-wage-data-awaited-idUKKBN1EU04B

We close for the week, with more “despite Brexit” news. Remainiacs “Project Fear” lies exposed as Fake News yet again.  The world simply doesn’t care if GB stayed or left the dysfunctional dying EUSSR. The world still turns either way.

January 5, 2018 / 12:18 AM

London was top destination for tech funding in 2017 - PitchBook

LONDON (Reuters) - London was the top city in Europe for technology investment last year, with more funding going into companies in the British capital than into firms based in Paris, Berlin and the next seven cities combined, data showed on Friday.

Tech firms in London attracted 2.45 billion pounds in venture capital funding in 2017, about 80 percent of the 2.99 billion pounds invested in Britain as a whole, according to data compiled by funding database PitchBook for London & Partners.

Eileen Burbidge, partner at Passion Capital, said it was no surprise to see London - and Britain - leading the pack because it has both the talent and investor capital needed.

“It’s a testament to our exceptional entrepreneurs that the UK tech sector continues to produce companies that are leading in the development of cutting edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and fintech,” she said.

Fintech, or financial technology, was the most popular segment for investors, attracting a record 1.34 billion pounds in venture capital, the data showed, led by major rounds for TransferWise, Funding Circle and Monzo.

Artificial intelligence (AI) was another growth area, with UK-based AI firms raising 488 million pounds, double the amount a year earlier, the data showed.

----Index Ventures partner Jan Hammer also said any post-Brexit restrictions on EU citizens movement would be detrimental.

“Protecting the talent inflow is the key source of growth of start ups,” he said.

At the moment, however, London was setting the standard both in breadth and quality of start-ups, he said, noting that the city was home to role models such as Just Eat (JE.L), King, a gaming company acquired by Activision Blizzard for $5.9 billion in 2015, and TransferWise.

“In our portfolio roughly 50 companies of the 150 companies we have are headquartered in London, and there are about another 25 foreign companies that have set up in London,” he said.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-technology-venture-capital/london-was-top-destination-for-tech-funding-in-2017-pitchbook-idUKKBN1EU019

“If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it existed prior to 1913, we’d be fine. Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard. I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?” 

Alan Greenspan. June 28, 2016.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, signs that the central bankster bubble era spawned and fuelled by “free” money may have peaked in 2017.  Was the iffy “Da Vinci” painting sale in November, the excess top?  Bitcoin at 20,000? If inflation is about to return, will the outgoing tide of interest rate normalisation, sink many boats?

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

Warren Buffett

London Luxury Home at ‘Unbelievable’ Discount Shows Price Falls

By Sharon R Smyth and Nishant Kumar
4 January 2018, 12:23 GMT
“Unbelievable reduction,” says the broker’s email.

An investor who agreed to purchase an apartment at the ritzy One Blackfriars project on the banks of the River Thames is offering the two-bedroom home on the 20th floor for 1.8 million pounds ($2.44 million), more than 22 percent less than they agreed to pay for it in 2013.

The seller, who’s from Asia, wants to offload the property before it’s completed, according to Christian Barr, new homes manager at MyLondonHome, who’s brokering the sale. Stamp duty is payable after a property’s construction is finished.

The good news for the seller is that there are two firm bids for more than the asking price, from English and Chinese investors, Barr said. He declined to disclose the level of the bids. The vendor wanted to sell within seven days, according to the email.

The stockpile of unsold London homes under construction rose to a record in the third quarter as developers ramped up supply. London was the worst-performing home market in the U.K. last year for the first time in more than a decade as values in the capital fell 0.5 percent, according to Nationwide Building Society. That’s the first full-year decline since the 2009 recession.

Price falls in London’s best central districts are rippling out as Brexit, mortgage constraints and concerns about future interest rate rises weigh on demand. Values in Fulham are now 14.4 percent below their 2014 peak, according to broker Savills Plc.

Credit Suisse Plans to Vacate London Office Building

By Jack Sidders
Updated on 5 January 2018, 00:00 GMT
Credit Suisse Group AG plans to vacate one of its offices in London’s Canary Wharf financial district following staff cuts and a program to reduce costs, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
The Swiss lender will relocate staff from 17 Columbus Courtyard to its adjacent, and larger, One Cabot Square office in about two years, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private. It may then try to sublease the smaller property until the lease ends in 2024, or negotiate an early exit with the building’s owner HNA Group Co., they said. The office has about 200,000 square feet (18,500 square meters) space, the equivalent of about three soccer pitches.

A spokesman for Credit Suisse declined to comment.

The Zurich-based bank has been shedding jobs in London as part of a three-year cost cutting plan introduced by Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam. The bank has refocused on wealth management and emerging markets as it seeks to allocate capital to units that generate higher returns.

The Cabot Square building, which was one of the first offices to be occupied at Canary Wharf when the docks were transformed into a financial district during the 1990s, is currently being refurbished. Other banks including Barclays Plc and Citigroup Inc. have also cut the amount of space they occupy in the district over the past two years.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Engineers make wearable sensors for plants, enabling measurements of water use in crops

Date: January 3, 2018

Source: Iowa State University

Summary: Scientists are developing graphene-based, sensors-on-tape that can be attached to plants and can provide data to researchers and farmers about water use in crops. The technology could have many other applications, including sensors for biomedical diagnostics, for checking the structural integrity of buildings, for monitoring the environment and, with modifications, for testing crops for diseases or pesticides.

Iowa State University plant scientist Patrick Schnable quickly described how he measured the time it takes for two kinds of corn plants to move water from their roots, to their lower leaves and then to their upper leaves.

This was no technical, precise, poster talk. This was a researcher interested in working with new, low-cost, easily produced, graphene-based, sensors-on-tape that can be attached to plants and can provide new kinds of data to researchers and farmers.

"With a tool like this, we can begin to breed plants that are more efficient in using water," he said. "That's exciting. We couldn't do this before. But, once we can measure something, we can begin to understand it."

The tool making these water measurements possible is a tiny graphene sensor that can be taped to plants -- researchers have dubbed it a "plant tattoo sensor." Graphene is a wonder material. It's a carbon honeycomb just an atom thick, it's great at conducting electricity and heat, and it's strong and stable. The graphene-on-tape technology in this study has also been used to produce wearable strain and pressure sensors, including sensors built into a "smart glove" that measures hand movements.

Researchers describe the various sensors and the "simple and versatile method for patterning and transferring graphene-based nanomaterials" to create the flexible sensors in a paper featured on the cover of the December 2017 issue of the journal Advanced Materials Technologies.

The research has been primarily supported by the Faculty Scholars Program of Iowa State's Plant Sciences Institute.

Liang Dong, an Iowa State associate professor of electrical and computer engineering, is the lead author of the paper and developer of the technology. Seval Oren, a doctoral student in electrical and computer engineering, is a co-author who helped develop the sensor-fabrication technology. Co-authors who helped test applications of the sensors are Schnable, director of Iowa State's Plant Sciences Institute, a Charles F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor in Agriculture and Life Sciences, the Iowa Corn Promotion Board Endowed Chair in Genetics and the Baker Scholar of Agricultural Entrepreneurship; and Halil Ceylan, a professor of civil, construction and environmental engineering.

"We're trying to make sensors that are cheaper and still high performing," Dong said.

To do that, the researchers have developed a process for fabricating intricate graphene patterns on tape. Dong said the first step is creating indented patterns on the surface of a polymer block, either with a molding process or with 3-D printing. Engineers apply a liquid graphene solution to the block, filling the indented patterns. They use tape to remove the excess graphene. Then they take another strip of tape to pull away the graphene patterns, creating a sensor on the tape.

The process can produce precise patterns as small as 5 millionths of a meter wide -- just a twentieth of the diameter of the average human hair. Dong said making the patterns so small increases the sensitivity of the sensors.
More

Another weekend and a feisty one likely between the White House, Mr. Bannon and Mr. Wolff. At least it will bring a little heat to America’s frozen Northeast.  Have a great weekend everyone. Interesting times.

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: 24,719 +265 Up. NASDAQ:  6,903 +297 Up. SP500: 2,674 +199 Up.

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