Saturday, 20 January 2018

Weekend Update 20/01/2018 The US Government Shuts Down.



As Milton Friedman once put it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t care about either.
The big news this weekend is the closure of most of the US Federal government due to the failure in Washington to pass a funding bill.  At first there is very little meaningful impact, and it’s widely expected to get quickly resolved in a matter of days if not the next 24 hours, but both sides seem to have talked themselves into a corner, and just possibly this shutdown might last longer. In any event it’s another self-inflicted drag on the US economy, at a time when an unusually cold winter is already weighing on the US economy.  It’s all about what happens next or doesn’t.  If there’s no fast resolution, the markets could get very ugly by the end of next week.

Below, only in America, as they say. Still it’s probably a good time to reduce risk. Will Davos get a lucky break?

America is not technically part of the Third World, but no one has told the Democrats.

With apologies to P. J. O’Rourke

January 19, 2018 / 11:07 AM

U.S. government shutdown begins as spending bill fails in Senate

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government officially shut down at midnight on Friday after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a last-minute deal to fund its operations, divided in a bitter dispute over immigration and border security.

In a dramatic late-night session, senators blocked a bill to extend government funding through Feb. 16. The bill needed 60 votes in the 100-member Senate but fell short with only 50 supporting it.

Most Democrats opposed the bill because their efforts to include protections for hundreds of thousands for the young immigrants known as Dreamers failed.

Huddled negotiations by Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer in the last minutes before midnight were unsuccessful, and the U.S. government technically ran out of money at midnight.

The shutdown formally began on Saturday, the first anniversary of President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Trump’s administration immediately sought to blame Democrats.

“Tonight, they put politics above our national security, military families, vulnerable children, and our country’s ability to serve all Americans,” the White House said in a statement.

The Trump administration said it would not discuss immigration until the government is up and running again. “When Democrats start paying our armed forces and first responders, we will reopen negotiations on immigration reform,” the statement said.

Until a funding deal is worked out, scores of federal agencies across the country will be unable to operate, and hundreds of thousands of “non-essential” federal workers will be put on temporary unpaid leave.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a stopgap funding measure on Thursday. But Republicans then needed the support of at least 10 Democrats to pass the bill in the Senate. While five Democrats ended up voting for the measure, five Republicans voted against it.

Democratic leaders demanded that the measure include protections from deportation for about 700,000 undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers who arrived in the United States as children.

----Although past government shutdowns have done little lasting damage to the U.S. economy, they can rattle financial markets.

The new shutdown could trigger a political battle between Democrats and Republicans over who is to blame.

It follows a months-long struggle in Congress to agree on government funding levels and the immigration issue.

January 19, 2018 / 3:47 PM

What happens in a U.S. government shutdown?

---In shutdowns, nonessential government employees are often furloughed, or placed on temporary unpaid leave. Workers deemed essential, including those dealing with public safety and national security, keep working, some with pay and others without.

After previous government shutdowns, Congress passed measures to ensure that essential and nonessential employees received retroactive pay.

The last shutdown, in October 2013, lasted more than two weeks and more than 800,000 federal employees were furloughed. Here is what happened then, along with some recent updates from officials:

MILITARY: The Defense Department said on Friday that a shutdown would not affect the U.S. military’s war in Afghanistan or its operations against Islamist militants in Iraq and Syria. All military personnel on active duty would remain on normal duty status. Civilian personnel in nonessential operations would be furloughed. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said a sustained funding impasse would cause ships to go without maintenance and aircraft to be grounded.

JUSTICE: The Justice Department has many essential workers. Under its shutdown contingency plan, about 95,000 of the department’s almost 115,000 staff would keep working.

FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT: The stock market-policing Securities and Exchange Commission funds itself by collecting fees from the financial industry, but its budget is set by Congress. It has said in the past it would be able to continue operations temporarily in a shutdown. But it would have to furlough workers if Congress went weeks before approving new funding.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, meanwhile, would have to furlough 95 percent of its employees immediately. An agency spokeswoman said the derivatives regulator could, however, call in additional staff in the event of a financial market emergency.

NATIONAL PARKS: National parks closed in 2013 and it resulted in a loss of 750,000 daily visitors, said the nonprofit National Parks Conservation Association. The National Park Service (NPS) estimated the shutdown resulted in $500 million in lost visitor spending in areas around the parks and the Smithsonian museums. The Trump administration has asked the NPS to examine ways to keep portions of some parks open, but overnight visitors might have to pack out their own trash, the Washington Post reported.

WASHINGTON TOURIST SIGHTS: In 2013, popular tourist sites such as the Smithsonian closed, with barricades going up at the Lincoln Memorial, the Library of Congress and the National Archives. The National Zoo closed and its popular “Panda Cam” went dark. The Smithsonian has said its museums could remain open for the first weekend. The NPS, which oversees many Washington landmarks, including the National Mall, has said it has a plan in place so that “First Amendment activities” can continue during a shutdown.

TAXES: The Internal Revenue Service furloughed 90 percent of its staff in 2013, the liberal Center for American Progress said. About $4 billion in tax refunds were delayed as a result, according to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

MAIL DELIVERY: Deliveries would continue as usual because the U.S. Postal Service receives no tax dollars for day-to-day operations.

TRAVEL: Air and rail travelers did not feel a big impact in 2013 because security officers and air traffic controllers remained at work. Passport processing continued with some delays.
More

Trump Can Go to Davos With Government Shut Down, Officials Say

By Justin Sink
President Donald Trump can attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland next week even if the U.S. government shuts down over a spending impasse, senior administration officials said.
Air Force One would still be allowed to fly in a shutdown, and necessary staff and security to support the president’s travels could accompany him, the officials said in a conference call with reporters. They insisted on anonymity as a condition of the briefing.

It’s not clear if Trump would choose to proceed with his trip to Davos during a shutdown, with hundreds of thousands of federal employees on unpaid furlough. The Switzerland event is an annual gathering of the world’s economic and political elite, where Trump plans to deliver a speech on his “America First” agenda.

He would be the first U.S. president to attend the forum since 2000.

Trump already postponed his departure for his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, where he was to attend a high-dollar gala celebrating the first anniversary of his inauguration on Saturday.

January 19, 2018 / 10:56 PM

Mattis says a U.S. government shutdown would affect military operations

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Friday that a government shutdown would impact military operations including some training, maintenance, and intelligence operations.

“Our maintenance activities will probably pretty much shut down ... Over 50 percent, altogether of my civilian workforce will be furloughed ... We do a lot of intelligence operations around the world and they cost money, those obviously would stop,” Mattis said in response to a question about the impact of a potential shutdown.

Separately, the Defense Department said a shutdown would not impact the U.S. military’s war in Afghanistan or its operations against Islamist militants in Iraq and Syria.

Mattis, speaking during a question and answer period following a speech, said he would leave this weekend for a trip to Indonesia and Vietnam. The Pentagon said in a statement that Mattis’ trip to Asia would go ahead even in the case of a government shutdown because it was necessary for national security and foreign relations.

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

J. K. Galbraith.

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