Thursday, 28 December 2017

The Debt Fuelled Mania.



Baltic Dry Index. 1366     Brent Crude 66.60

In all human history, only about 161,000 tons of gold have been extracted, equivalent to about two Olympic standard swimming pools. Gold’s monetary role confers extraordinary riches on those who control it and was once the key to wealth and economic dominance.

Satyajit Das. Extreme Money. Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk

From stocks, to central bankster fuelled bonds, to the madness mania of the cryptocurrencies, 2017 is going out in a debt fuelled manic style. Yesterday this was described as the “new normal,” but to this old dinosaur who lived through the stock market revulsion of the 1970s, replaced by the manic commodity bubbles in metals and the soft commodities, 2017 merely seems like an echo from the past. 
 
The 1980s brought about commodity revulsion and the Great Stock Mania that ended with the Black Monday crash of 1987. It’s been all central bankster market rigging ever since.  As we enter 2018, ten years on from the Great Recession, a decade long rigging of ZIRP and in places NIRP, has led to a massive, debt fuelled, misallocation of global assets on a never before seen scale.

Previous misallocation manias, were almost completely local up until this century, but with free fiat currency pouring out of the global central banks, thanks to the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, our genius central banksters have managed to generate a long feared global “crack up boom,”  and have achieved it without, so far, the arrival of inflation. We all know how it ends, just not when or why. I suspect that a great inflation will not be long in coming next decade.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises

December 28, 2017 / 12:55 AM

Asian shares at one-month highs, copper stays near four-year peak

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a one-month high on Thursday and were on track for their best annual performance since 2009, while commodity-driven currencies were buoyed by a strong copper, which held near a four-year peak.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.5 percent at 565.92 points, a level last visited in late November. It has rocketed more than 32 percent in 2017.

Every single market in Asia was in the black on Thursday, a rare occurrence. South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 and China's CSI 300 index .CSI300 were both up 0.7 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI rose 0.6 percent. Japan's Nikkei .N225 climbed 0.2 percent.

MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 47 countries, also held near record highs. It has surged 21.5 percent this year.

Trade was light across the board with many market participants on holiday.

Elsewhere, currencies of commodity exporting countries got a boost from strength in metals overnight.

Copper CMCU3 eased after nine straight sessions of gains but stayed near its highest level since early 2014.

Prices of the metal, considered a barometer for global growth and used widely in power and construction, are up 30 percent in 2017.

Gold prices climbed to a one-month top XAU= while oil was not far from this week’s 2-1/2 year peak.
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Will the bull market for stocks finally end in 2018? If so, blame the credit market bubble

Published: Dec 27, 2017 3:39 p.m. ET

Corporate debt at record levels and a flattening yield curve is a bad combination for stocks

Will 2018 be the year the stock market rally screeches to a halt?

It may be, if those analysts who are cautioning that a bubble is forming in credit markets are right and companies are overextending themselves to a degree that could spell trouble ahead.

Most analysts agree that the credit market has been speeding ahead at a bubble-like pace. Companies have been piling on debt in recent years to take advantage of low interest rates, or more recently, to get ahead of a series of well-telegraphed interest-rate hikes.

If their borrowing is simply to refinance existing debt at lower interest rates, it’s a positive for balance sheets. But many companies have borrowed to raise funds for shareholder rewards, and that may come back to bite them if rates were to spike.

For example, Apple Inc.’s AAPL, +0.02%  debt may be highly rated, just two notches below triple-A at AA+ at S&P Global Ratings, but the technology giant continues to ride the borrowing bandwagon as it looks to fund its massive share buyback program. Apple issued $7 billion of debt in November, two months after selling $5 billion worth of corporate bonds and several months after adding more debt.

Don’t miss: Share buyback machine now in overdrive, dropping a strong hint at what CEOs plan to do with tax savings.

See also: Apple is once again borrowing in the bond market to reward its shareholders.

The U.S. primary corporate bond market is currently at record levels. The investment-grade market saw $1.44 trillion of issuance in 2,127 deals through December 26, topping the record $1.34 billion recorded in 2016, according to data analytics company Dealogic.

The high-yield market has chalked up $266.3 billion of debt in 469 deals, making it the fourth-biggest year for issuance, according to Dealogic. The high-yield record goes to 2012 when issuers sold $321 billion of debt in 604 deals.

----What’s starting to worry some analysts is that despite the fact that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are draining liquidity from the marketplace and the yield curve is flattening, near-record credit market valuations suggest investors haven’t prepared for any potential speed bumps.

One sign of this complacency, is how narrow the spread is between yields on speculative grade, or “junk” bonds, and corresponding risk-free Treasury notes. S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday its speculative-grade composite spread tightened by three basis points (0.03 percentage points) to 399 basis points, well below the five-year moving average of a 528 basis-point spread.

“We think there is way too much complacency regarding what is a notable and growing shift in central bank policy globally,” Morgan Stanley credit strategist Adam Richmond wrote in a recent note to clients. “Markets expect a seamless unwind [of quantitative easing]. We don’t.”
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-bull-market-for-stocks-finally-end-in-2018-if-so-blame-the-credit-market-bubble-2017-12-27

Bitcoin Drops as South Korea Says Exchange Closures Are Possible

By Kyungji Cho and Eric Lam
Bitcoin resumed its tumble on Thursday after South Korea said it was eyeing options including a potential shutdown of at least some cryptocurrency exchanges to stamp out a frenzy of speculation.

South Korea has been ground zero for a global surge in interest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as their prices surged this year, prompting the nation’s prime minister to worry over the impact on Korean youth. While there’s no immediate indication Asia’s No. 4 economy will move to shutter exchanges that have accounted by some measures for more than fifth of global trading, the news poses a warning as regulators the world over express concerns about private digital currencies.

Bitcoin fell as much as 7.2 percent to as low as $14,102 in Asia trading, erasing modest gains after the South Korean release, composite Bloomberg pricing shows. It’s now down about 25 percent from its record high reached last week.

South Korea will require real-name cryptocurrency transactions and impose a ban on the offering of virtual accounts by banks to crypto-exchanges, according to a statement from the Office for Government Policy Coordination. Policy makers will review measures including the closure of crypto-exchanges suggested by the Ministry of Justice and take proper measures swiftly and firmly while monitoring the trend of the speculation.

“Cryptocurrency speculation has been irrationally overheated in Korea,” the government said in the statement. “The government can’t leave the abnormal situation of speculation any longer.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-28/bitcoin-drops-as-south-korea-says-exchange-closures-are-possible

Bitcoin Resumes Slide After Biggest Rally in Two Weeks

By Jeremy Herron
Updated on 27 December 2017, 20:07 GMT
Bitcoin fell below $15,000 after the cryptocurrency’s biggest rally in two weeks ended a rout that wiped more than $9,000 off the price.

The largest digital coin dropped 6.3 percent to $14,913 at 3:07 p.m. in New York, having earlier climbed as much as 3.6 percent. Among rival digital currencies, ripple rose 8 percent, while ethereum and litecoin fell, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The relatively quiet day for bitcoin comes on the heels of a five-day slump that reached 44 percent at its depths and took the coin below $11,000 on Friday. Just four days earlier, it rose within striking distance of $20,000 after a torrid advance that started in early December.

Investors continued to snap up shares in companies often seen as a safer alternative to investing directly in the cryptocurrency itself. Digital Power rose in early trading after saying it’s boosting its computing infrastructure to mine digital coins. On Track Innovation also advanced.

Bitcoin futures on the CME Group exchange slipped 3.6 percent.

Bitcoin’s volatility is adding to an ongoing debate about how to value the digital coin which has surged about 1,600 percent this year.

“Nobody knows the ultimate value of this underlying asset,” Edward Stringham, president of the American Institute for Economic Research, a Massachusetts-based research group, said on Bloomberg Television. “We cannot predict whether it’s going to be zero or $1 million or anything in between.”

For skeptics doubting whether individuals and businesses will truly start using bitcoin as a medium of exchange -- as opposed to some officially backed digital currency -- the short-lived rebound from the past week’s selloff portends further declines.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/bitcoin-s-rebound-eases-as-cryptocurrency-watchers-debate-value

"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them."

Ludwig von Mises

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner 

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today’s lesson, he should have added bankster to his career, that way he’d still be out, walking around Seoul, London, New York,  like nothing ever happened.

December 27, 2017 / 5:15 AM

South Korea prosecutors seek 12 years jail for Samsung heir Lee in corruption case

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean prosecutors sought a 12-year jail term on Wednesday for Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Jay Y. Lee, in a corruption case that led to the ouster of the nation’s president earlier this year.
They made their demand in the Seoul High Court which is hearing an appeal by Lee against a five-year jail term handed out to him in August by a lower court in the case that has gripped the country.
The 49-year-old billionaire heir to South Korea’s Samsung Group was convicted by the lower court of bribing the country’s former president Park Geun-hye. Besides Lee, who has been in detention since February, four former Samsung executives were also charged in the case.

The lower court had ruled the bribe helped Lee strengthen his control of Samsung Electronics, the crown jewel in the country’s biggest conglomerate and one of the world’s top technology firms.

“The defendants say they are concerned about the future of Samsung Group. However, what they are really concerned about is Lee’s loss of control and subsequent economic losses,” special prosecutor Park Young-soo told a packed court of about 150 people.

Lee, in a dark suit and white shirt without a tie at the appeals hearing, earlier on Wednesday denied the bribery charge and also denied recent allegations by prosecutors that he had met Park one-on-one four times, instead of the previously disclosed three times.

The Seoul High Court is expected to rule on the appeal in late January. Whichever side loses could take the case to the Supreme Court, the final court of appeal in South Korea.

The lower court had ruled in August that while Lee never asked for Park’s help directly, the fact that a 2015 merger of two Samsung affiliates did help cement Lee’s control over Samsung Electronics implied he was asking for the president’s help to strengthen his control of the firm.
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Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Thermoelectric power generation at room temperature: Coming soon?

Researchers create a thermoelectric material (ytterbium silicide) with a high power factor at room temperature

Date: December 26, 2017

Source: Osaka University

Summary: A research team has created a thermoelectric material with promising performance at room temperature. Ytterbium silicide is a good electrical conductor. It also has a high Seebeck coefficient thanks to Kondo resonance (fluctuation of f-electrons), which increases its power factor. 
Its layered structure further promotes the thermoelectric effect by blocking heat conduction. This non-toxic, room-temperature thermoelectric material is competitive with conventional bismuth telluride, and could be used for power generation or refrigeration.

Thermoelectric (TE) materials could play a key role in future technologies. Although the applications of these remarkable compounds have long been explored, they are mostly limited to high-temperature devices. Recently, researchers at Osaka University, in collaboration with Hitachi, Ltd., developed a new TE material with an improved power factor at room temperature. Their study, published in Physica Status Solidi RRL, could help bring these materials out of the high-temperature niche and into the mainstream.

TE materials display the thermoelectric effect: apply heat on one side, and an electric current starts to flow. Conversely, run an external current through the device, and a temperature gradient forms; i.e., one side becomes hotter than the other. By interconverting heat and electricity, TE materials can be used as either power generators (given a heat source) or refrigerators (given a power supply).

The ideal TE material combines high electrical conductivity, allowing the current to flow, with low thermal conductivity, which prevents the temperature gradient from evening out. The power generation performance mainly depends on the "power factor," which is proportional to both electrical conductivity and a term called the Seebeck coefficient.

"Unfortunately, most TE materials are often based on rare or toxic elements," according to study co-author Sora-at Tanusilp. "To address this, we combined silicon -- which is common in TE materials -- with ytterbium, to create ytterbium silicide [YbSi2]. We chose ytterbium over other metals for several reasons. First, its compounds are good electrical conductors. Second, YbSi2 is non-toxic. Moreover, this compound has a specific property called valence fluctuation that make it a good TE material at low temperatures."
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He was a boy when the great earthquake struck San Francisco at 5:12a.m. on Wednesday, April 18, 1906, one of the worst natural disasters in U.S.history. The man and his family survived the earthquake and subsequent fire, managing to get out of the destroyed city by boat. His father paid the boatman, who would not accept money, in gold, secreted away for emergencies. Gold, the sweat of the god as the Incas called it, is hard money. It is the only money when chaos ensues.

Satyajit Das. Extreme Money. Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: 24,272 +243 Up. NASDAQ:  6,874 +289 Up. SP500: 2,648 +189 Up.

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