Friday, 8 December 2017

Compare and Contrast. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Baltic Dry Index. 1679 +09 Brent Crude 62.22
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way."
Charles Dickens. A Tale of Two Cities.
For once, little need for comment by me. We can all see at a glance what has gone wrong, but there’s no will anywhere on planet Earth to avert the coming tragedy.

Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain, Asia Stocks Advance: Markets Wrap

By Adam Haigh
7 December 2017, 22:26 GMT Updated on 8 December 2017, 06:13 GMT
The dollar is poised for a solid weekly advance after U.S. tax-cut legislation made progress in Congress, and ahead of employment data expected to show continued robust hiring.
Asian stocks rose following a broad-based rally in U.S. equities. Japan’s benchmarks advanced, buoyed by a weaker yen, which extended a 0.7 percent slide. The Bloomberg dollar index at one point was heading for its biggest weekly gain this year. The pound advanced on hopes last-minute talks will result in a deal on the Irish border that will allow Brexit negotiations to move on. Gold was steady after extending this week’s slide to a four-month low.

Equities across the Asia-Pacific began rallying on Thursday after an eight-day losing streak saw investors booking profits following 2017 gains. This year remains on track to be the best since 2009 when stocks surged in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis.
We’ve had a terrific year in financial assets across the board,” Kenneth Taubes, chief investment officer of U.S. investment management at Amundi, which oversees about $1.6 trillion, told Bloomberg TV. “As we get towards the end of the year and valuations seem more extended than there were last year, it’s pretty natural that people want to lock in some profits.”
Stocks in the U.S. resumed their run-up tied to speculation that the U.S. tax overhaul will boost corporate profits. The S&P 500 Index ended a four-day losing streak, with industrial and consumer discretionary shares among the best performers. That follows a few days in which the markets drifted as investors awaited the details of a final bill. Meanwhile, Congress passed a two-week extension of federal funding that averts a government shutdown this week.
And the bitcoin frenzy continues. The cryptocurrency that has sparked so much debate went on a wild ride on Thursday. On Coinbase Inc.’s GDAX exchange, prices zoomed up to almost $20,000 from $16,000 in only about 90 minutes before crashing back down. The largest digital currency is still up more than 16-fold this year. It traded around $16,000 in Asia.

Japan’s economy expanded in the third quarter more than initially reported, as business investment 
grew at a faster pace. In China, exports in November jumped on firm global demand, while imports were underpinned by a sound domestic economy.
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Bitcoin Exchanges Are Buckling While the Price Surges Past $16,000

By Camila Russo
7 December 2017, 03:16 GMT Updated on 8 December 2017, 00:31 GMT
Bitcoin surged past $16,000 for the first time on Thursday, with frenzied demand to trade the cryptocurrency buckling one of the largest exchanges just days before the first U.S. futures contracts begin trading.

Bitcoin’s rally of more than $3,000 in the past 24 hours continues to defy its legions of skeptics, as mainstream demand for the world’s largest cryptocurrency explodes. Investors flocking to open new accounts or place orders Thursday left Coinbase, the largest U.S. exchange, warning of outages and slow transactions. 

Trezor, a wallet service, tweeted that it’s having “minor issues” with its servers, while Bitfinex, the largest bitcoin exchange in the world, said on Twitter that it has been under a denial of service attack for several days and that it recently got worse.

Bitcoin listed at $16,395 as of 1:15 p.m. in Bloomberg pricing that is a composite of exchanges. That takes its rally this year past 1,500 percent and its market capitalization is now at $274 billion. On Thursday it topped out at $16,777.08 after starting the day at $13,363.25. 

“This is irrational exuberance,” Royal Bank of Scotland Chairman Howard John Davies said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Thursday. “This is a very, very unusual market, that shows we’re not in a normal two-way trading market.”

Daily price swings of that magnitude and weakness at the exchanges underscored concerns raised Wednesday by some of the world’s biggest brokerages, which told regulators the contracts have been rushed to market without enough due diligence. The new bitcoin derivatives products are slated to begin trading this month and are expected to boost mainstream demand. On a day such as Thursday, trading would pause under proposed daily price-swing limitations.
The slowdown on exchanges also highlighted the disparate pricing that can occur. The surging demand on Coinbase sent prices as high as $19,697 at 11:23 a.m., higher by more than $3,000 than other exchanges. Coinbase added at least 300,000 users since just before the Thanksgiving holiday. The company had 13.3 million users as of Nov. 26, up from 13 million on Nov. 22 and 10.6 million two months ago.
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Bitcoin Wildness Highlights Worries as Futures Trading Nears

By Nick Baker, Annie Massa, Brian Louis, and Camila Russo
7 December 2017, 19:16 GMT Updated on 8 December 2017, 03:55 GMT
Bitcoin’s poised to go legit. Is it really ready?

Three days before Cboe Global Markets Inc., one of the world’s biggest regulated exchanges, debuts futures on the cryptocurrency, it had one of its wildest sessions ever. On Coinbase Inc.’s GDAX exchange, prices zoomed up to almost $20,000 from $16,000 in only about 90 minutes -- then crashed back down. The largest digital currency is still up more than 16-fold this year, trading at 16,126.32 as of 11:52 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg composite pricing.
Coinbase, one of the largest U.S. online exchanges used by investors, temporarily crashed and continued to suffer from service delays. Trezor, a wallet service, tweeted that it’s having “minor issues” with its servers, while Bitfinex, the largest bitcoin exchange in the world, said on Twitter that it has been under a denial of service attack for several days and that it recently got worse.
Cboe and CME Group Inc. last week got permission to offer bitcoin futures. CME’s products launch Dec. 18.

The entrance of Cboe and CME is a watershed for bitcoin because many professional investors have been unwilling to do business on the unregulated platforms where bitcoin currently trades. Cboe and CME are regulated, potentially assuaging those concerns.

Some big traders had just warned about the impending introduction. On Wednesday, the Futures Industry Association -- a group of major banks, brokers and traders -- said the contracts were rushed without enough consideration of the risks.

The group outlined their concerns in an open letter, questioning whether the exchanges would be able to adequately police market manipulation for bitcoin futures. FIA added that the exchanges didn’t get enough industry feedback on margin levels, trading limits, stress tests, and clearing for the products before bringing them to market.
----Other trading experts have sounded alarm bells on the possibility of manipulation. The thinking goes that because cryptocurrency markets aren’t policed by a central regulator, cheaters could fly under the radar if they try to move the price of bitcoin on exchanges with scant volume.
The CFTC “has strong anti-manipulation rules for futures, but those won’t necessarily protect investors if the bitcoin cash markets are manipulated,” said Ty Gellasch, executive director of the Healthy Markets Association, an investor advocacy group.
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Finally today, great instability ahead. Yet another unintended consequence of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, but what did they think was going to happen? The rich get richer while the rest get left behind. A recipe for unstable democracies, and Comrade Corbyn and Comrade Sanders populist charlatans.

The richest 1 percent now owns more of the country’s wealth than at any time in the past 50 years

By Christopher Ingraham December 6
The wealthiest 1 percent of American households own 40 percent of the country's wealth, according to a new paper by economist Edward N. Wolff. That share is higher than it has been at any point since at least 1962, according to Wolff's data, which comes from the federal Survey of Consumer Finances.

From 2013, the share of wealth owned by the 1 percent shot up by nearly three percentage points. 
Wealth owned by the bottom 90 percent, meanwhile, fell over the same period. Today, the top 1 percent of households own more wealth than the bottom 90 percent combined. That gap, between the ultrawealthy and everyone else, has only become wider in the past several decades.
----In the United States, the distribution of that wealth is even more skewed toward the top than the distribution of income. For the sake of illustration, let's say that America is a country of 100 people, and all of the wealth in the country — the homes and land and financial assets — is represented by 100 slices of pie.
That works out to an average of one slice of pie per person, which is exactly what everyone would get if we lived in a society where wealth was equally distributed.

But that's not the society we live in, and indeed that's not the society that most of us want to live in either. People generally agree that if you work harder you're entitled to more of the pie, and that if you don't work at all, well, barring certain circumstances, no pie for you.

In 2010, Michael Norton and Dan Ariely surveyed more than 5,500 people to find out how they thought wealth should be distributed in this country: How much of the pie should go to the top 20 percent of Americans, and to the next 20 percent, and so on, all the way down to the bottom of the distribution?
On average, respondents said that in an ideal world the top 20 percent of Americans would get nearly one-third of the pie, the second and middle quintiles would get about 20 percent each, and the bottom two quintiles would get 13 and 11 slices, respectively.
In an ideal world, in other words, the most productive quintile of society would amass roughly three times the wealth of the least productive.

Now, let's take a look at how the pie is actually distributed. These figures come from Wolff's working paper, and he expands on them further in his new book, "A Century of Wealth in America."

The top 20 percent of households actually own a whopping 90 percent of the stuff in America — 90 slices of pie! That's exactly 4½ slices per person, nearly triple their “ideal” share according to Norton and Ariely's survey respondents. Their average net worth? $3 million.

That leaves just 10 percent of the pie for the remaining 80 percent of the populace.
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Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.”
John Maynard Keynes.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, does trouble in commodities signal global trouble dead ahead? Is Dr. Copper an early warning of an arriving new slowdown?

Commodities Crumble Again as China Alarm Bells Sink Metals

By Grant Smith, Eddie Van Der Walt and Mark Burton
7 December 2017, 11:23 GMT Updated on 7 December 2017, 13:51 GMT
Stocks and bitcoin may be having a stellar year, but one corner of global markets hasn’t shared the good fortune.
The Bloomberg Commodities Index has fallen 4.2 percent in the past month, putting it on course for its sixth year of losses out of seven.

The big question is whether the selloff is simply a snap back after a frenzied rally or the warning of a weaker economy. One bad sign for commodities going forward are expectations for a slower growth in China. The country’s pollution cleanup and a cooling property market will damp investment into 2018, according to a Bloomberg survey last week.


Here are a few takeaways from the selloff:

Breadth

Energy, metals and agriculture are showing losses. Nickel has been hit hardest recently as the fever over electric car batteries wore off. Oil traders took profits after the OPEC meeting and oversupply continued to be a headache for grain traders.

China

China is still the big swing factor in commodity markets and metals traders are starting to price the possibility that slower growth will mean less demand.

The nation’s fixed-asset investment in infrastructure will grow 12 percent next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, down from almost 20 percent in the first 10 months this year. Copper has born the brunt of the nervousness and prices are near a two-month low.

more

Iron Ore From Paradise Wins No Takers as China Upends Market

By Swansy Afonso
8 December 2017, 03:02 GMT Updated on 8 December 2017, 07:01 GMT
A China-led flight to quality in the global iron ore market is punishing producers of the lower-grade material, with miners in India facing an increasing battle to find buyers for their cargoes as demand dwindles.

In Goa, exporters are struggling to sell even a quarter of what they shipped last year, according to Glenn Kalavampara, secretary at the Goa Mineral Ore Exporters’ Association. “There’s absolutely no market,” he said by phone from Panaji, capital of the western state that’s better known for its sparkling beach resorts. “The preference for higher-grade ore is a major concern.” he said.

While Indian exports account for just a fraction of the global seaborne market of about 1.4 billion tons that’s dominated by Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd., the plight of the low-grade shippers highlights the new dynamic. A concerted anti-pollution push in China this winter has supercharged the premium commanded by higher-grade material, which is more efficient. This week, Rio pointed to “clear evidence” of a structural change in the market, and earlier this year, BHP highlighted the industry’s “new reality”.

“There are hardly any exports,” R.K. Sharma, secretary-general of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, said by phone from New Delhi. Sharma has been working in the sector for almost five decades, and at one time saw Indian exports top 100 million tons. “Even the Goans who are near the ports and have the least costs in the country are not able to sell,” he said.

China’s push to clean the air has exploded the price differential between high and low grades. On Thursday, spot ore with 65 percent iron content from Brazil was at $85.20 a dry ton, while benchmark material of 62 percent was $65.70, and 58 percent was less than $40, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd.
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Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Wheat gets boost from purified nanotubes

Toxicity study shows plant growth enhanced by -- but only by -- purified nanotubes

Date: December 6, 2017
 
Source: Rice University
 
Summary: Researchers test the effects of carbon nanotubes on the growth of wheatgrass. While some showed no effect, purified single-walled nanotubes dispersed in water enhanced the plants' growth, while the same nanotubes in an organic solvent retarded their development.
The introduction of purified carbon nanotubes appears to have a beneficial effect on the early growth of wheatgrass, according to Rice University scientists. But in the presence of contaminants, those same nanotubes could do great harm.

The Rice lab of chemist Andrew Barron grew wheatgrass in a hydroponic garden to test the potential toxicity of nanoparticles on the plant. To their surprise, they found one type of particle dispersed in water helped the plant grow bigger and faster.

They suspect the results spring from nanotubes' natural hydrophobic (water-avoiding) nature that in one experiment apparently facilitated the plants' enhanced uptake of water.

The research appears in the Royal Society of Chemistry journal Environmental Science: Nano.

The lab mounted the small-scale study with the knowledge that the industrial production of nanotubes will inevitably lead to their wider dispersal in the environment. The study cited rapid growth in the market for nanoparticles in drugs, cosmetic, fabrics, water filters and military weapons, with thousands of tons produced annually.

Despite their widespread use, Barron said few researchers have looked at the impact of environmental nanoparticles -- whether natural or human-made -- on plant growth.

The researchers planted wheatgrass seeds in multiple replicates in cotton wool and fed them with dispersions that contained raw single-walled or multi-walled nanotubes, purified single-walled nanotubes or iron oxide nanoparticles that mimicked leftover catalyst often attached to nanotubes. The solutions were either water or tetrahydrofuran (THF), an industrial solvent. Some of the seeds were fed pure water or THF as a control.

After eight days, the plantings showed that purified single-walled nanotubes in water enhanced the germination rate and shoot growth of wheatgrass, which grew an average of 13 percent larger than plants in plain water. Raw single- and multi-walled nanotubes and particles in either solution had little effect on the plants' growth, they found.

However, purified single-walled nanotubes in THF retarded plant development by 45 percent compared to single-walled nanotubes in water, suggesting the nanotubes act as a carrier for the toxic substance.

The concern, Barron said, is that if single-walled nanotubes combine with organic pollutants like pesticides, industrial chemicals or solvents in the environment, they may concentrate and immobilize the toxins and enhance their uptake by plants.

Nothing seen in the limited study indicated whether carbon nanotubes in the environment, and potentially in plants, will rise up the food chain and be harmful to humans, he said.
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Once again another year draws to a close. If you are one of the regular reader of this six days a week update that helps support my efforts with the occasional donation via the Paypal button, once again I sincerely thank you. If you are a regular reader who finds the LIR informative, interesting, occasionally amusing or entertaining, please consider making a small donation via the Paypal button on the LIR website. For obvious reasons in our new age of almost rampant fake news, I want to keep the LIR advertising free. But in any event thank you for reading and sending in helpful suggestions.
21st century adage: Is that true or did you hear it on the BBC?

Have a great weekend everyone.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: 24,272 +243 Up. NASDAQ: 6,874 +289 Up. SP500: 2,648 +189 Up.


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