Baltic Dry Index. 1619 -49 Brent Crude 63.59
Experience
is what makes you pause briefly before going ahead and making the same mistake.
Mad
Magazine.
We have reached the
final week before Christmas, which is usually a pretty quiet trading time as
everyone winds down for the year end. But under President Trump 2017 has been
far from a normal year, and with a new Bitcoin futures contract starting on the
CME last night, will this week and next play out as usual?
We open with Asia following
US markets and pinning their hopes of President Trump’s tax cuts.
December 18, 2017 / 1:14 AM /
Updated 2 hours ago
Asian shares rise amid U.S. tax cut hopes; China in focus
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian shares edged up on Monday, with sentiment boosted by
expectations U.S. lawmakers will pass a long-awaited tax bill, while Chinese
stocks were soggy after the country’s central bank raised interest rates.
Meanwhile,
the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME exchange bolstered expectations the
cryptocurrency’s red-hot rally in the cash market could continue.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei .N225 was the best performer in the region, rising 1.3 percent to edge closer to a 25-year peak of 23,382 points set last month.
Global stock markets have surged this year, largely led by expectations of a U.S. tax overhaul. The reform is seen boosting corporate profits, triggering share buybacks and higher dividend payouts - a boon for shareholders.
Votes on the legislation are expected this week.
China is also in focus after the People’s Bank of China raised interest rates on reverse repurchase agreements, or reverse repos.
Investors will also watch for news from a three day Central Economic Work conference starting Monday where Communist Party leaders will discuss economic policy, including growth targets.
“While there are no obvious signs yet, we do expect a modest slowdown in
Chinese growth in coming months,” said Steve Waddington, portfolio manager at
Insight Investment, which has A$930 billion ($712 billion) in assets under
management.
China could lower its growth target to 6.0 percent from 6.5 percent, Waddington
added, as the impact of tighter financial conditions and stricter regulation
aimed at reducing leverage worked through the economy.
----The U.S. dollar stayed above a 1-1/2 week trough against the Japanese yen, after slipping 0.8 percent last week. JPY=
Trading was generally thin as investors wound up their books ahead of Christmas holidays.
----Bitcoin futures began trading on the CME exchange on Monday <0>, with the near-month contract down 3.6 percent.
In the spot market, bitcoin was last down 2.8 percent at $18,430 after hitting a record $19,666 on Sunday on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp Exchange. BTC=BTSP
“The introduction (of futures contracts) has added validity acknowledging bitcoin as a legitimate asset,” said Shane Chanel, a fund manager at ASR Wealth Advisers.
“The launch should increase buy-side pressure and potentially be the catalyst that pushes bitcoin above $20,000.”
In commodities, oil prices were slightly firmer with U.S. crude CLc1 up 8 cents at $57.38 while Brent crude LCOc1 inched 12 cents higher to $63.35.
More
Next, more on the
bitcoin mania sweeping the world. Few, if any, manias ever end in, or produce a
plus. I think cash settled bitcoin futures is a scam on a scam, and when it all
ends many toes are going to get stamped on in the process. The higher the mania
goes and the more widespread the cryptocurrencies disperse, the greater the
damage when it bursts. So far the CME future have been distinctly underwhelming.
Is this the start of a bitcoin wobble?
December 17, 2017 / 6:08 AM /
Updated 2 hours ago
Bitcoin hits bigger stage as exchange giant CME launches futures
NEW
YORK/SYDNEY (Reuters) - Bitcoin futures received a lukewarm reception at its
launch on the CME Group Inc on Sunday, although market experts believe a recent
rally in the cryptocurrency has further to go.
The
CME bitcoin front-month futures contract did open higher at $20,650, but
dropped 6 percent within the first half hour.
The contract was last at $18,805, below the $19,500 reference price set
by the exchange for the January contract.
The reference price, from which price limits are set, is $19,600 for the
February contract, $19,700 for March and $19,900 for June, according to CME.
On Dec. 10, Chicago-based derivatives exchange Cboe Global Markets
launched bitcoin futures, which saw the price surge nearly 20 percent in its
debut.
The week-old bitcoin futures contract at the Cboe was last trading at
$18,890, up 4.3 percent.
Spot bitcoin eased 1.9 percent on the Bitstamp exchange to $18,650,
after surging to a record high of $19,666 on Sunday.
The launch of bitcoin futures is viewed as a major step in the digital
currency’s path toward legitimacy, which should encourage the entry of big
institutional investors.
“We saw a nice open on light volume, but pretty uneventful so far,”
Spencer Bogart, partner at Blockchain Capital LLC, said shortly after trading
began on Sunday.
“This is a brand-new asset class and I think perhaps a lot of investors
want to sit back and see how this plays out before dipping their toes in this
market.”
More
What is bitcoin really worth? Don’t even ask
ROBERT J. SHILLER
The New York Times News Service
Published 1 day ago Updated December 15, 2017
Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale, is an
adviser to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, part of the CME Group
Dabbling in bitcoin lies somewhere between gambling and investing. After
all, true investing requires a rational appraisal of an asset's value, and that
is simply not possible at present with bitcoin. Real understanding of the
economic issues underlying the cryptocurrency is almost nonexistent.
It is not just that very few people really comprehend the technology
behind bitcoin. It is that no one can attach objective probabilities to the
various possible outcomes of the current bitcoin enthusiasm.
How can we even start estimating the fundamental value of bitcoin, with
its astonishing market value of more than $275-billion (U.S.)? Any attempt
would soon sound silly.
Let's try for just a moment. It is possible to imagine a future in which
bitcoin eventually replaces some fraction of money as we know it today. Suppose
that happens soon. Note that one measure of the U.S. money supply, M1, is today
worth more than $3.6-trillion.
But don't get too excited.
Will bitcoin really replace a large fraction of
conventional money? There are reasons to be skeptical. Bitcoin is vastly more
volatile than conventional money and relatively few people trust it as a store
of value. Even if that hurdle is crossed, how much cryptocurrency will people
need?
Putting it in economic terms, will the demand for
bitcoin have the same velocity as the demand for money? Will there be the same
number of hoarders? And what about all the other cryptocurrencies that exist
today, and those that will arise in the future? Bitcoin might well be replaced
by something different and better, and end up being worth nothing at all.
I won't go further down this road. Many people are
making analogous attempts to put a fundamental value on bitcoin – but such
efforts will be intrinsically and absurdly inaccurate. The results of a serious
attempt to assess the value of bitcoin can only be ambiguous.
More
Bitcoin Proves You Cannot Have Your Digital Cake and Eat it Too - Nathan McDonald
December 15, 2017
----Transaction fees have ballooned
to upwards of $20.00 per order, making it almost impossible for any small
business to accept Bitcoin as a payment option. Traditional credit cards, or
other forms of payments have once again stolen back their crowns.
Just recently, Steam, the largest online gaming platform and seller of video games, summed up exactly what I am talking about in a recent press release . They stated that it simply doesn't make sense to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment any longer, given its extreme volatility and cost to transact in:
"In the past few months we've seen an increase in the volatility in the value of Bitcoin and a significant increase in the fees to process transactions on the Bitcoin network. For example, transaction fees that are charged to the customer by the Bitcoin network have skyrocketed this year, topping out at close to $20 a transaction last week (compared to roughly $0.20 when we initially enabled Bitcoin). Unfortunately, Valve has no control over the amount of the fee. These fees result in unreasonably high costs for purchasing games when paying with Bitcoin. The high transaction fees cause even greater problems when the value of Bitcoin itself drops dramatically."
Unfortunately, they are far from
alone, as I have watched many small and medium size businesses turn off their
Bitcoin payment options over the past year. Additionally, I have watched
numerous other "Legendary" status Bitcoin Talk community members
"rage quit" over these very points I am bringing up.
This is something that is not being
discussed openly by the markets, as they blindly push the price of Bitcoin
higher and higher, and thus increasingly make it even less affordable to
transact in.
Perhaps this is not a big deal, and
to the new "community" that has formed around Bitcoin, displacing the
old guard that used to exist, it likely isn't. They have no intentions of using
their Bitcoins as it was originally intended to be used, holding is all that
remains and can you truly blame them given the recent parabolic moves higher?
More
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, only in America, as they say. But are you
sure? What about Asia, Africa or the Caribbean? Europe even?
"What can we advise our American colleagues? They should get more fresh air, do yoga, eat healthily, maybe watch some sitcoms on television."
Russia's deputy foreign minister
Sergei Ryabkov.
The Body Trade A REUTERS SERIES
Cadavers in the ballroom: Doctors practice their craft in America’s favorite hotels
Part 6: Big names in hospitality, from Disney to Hilton and Hyatt,
have a little-known sideline: They rent space to physicians who train on
cadavers and body parts. There is scant regulation, and some public-health
specialists warn of biosafety risks.
By ELIZABETH
CULLIFORD Filed Dec. 15, 2017, 5:30
p.m. GMT
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Florida – Just outside the
operating theater, the organizers of a medical conference wore Minnie
Mouse ears.
Inside, as doctors practiced on three cadavers,
blood from one of the human specimens seeped through a layer of wrapping.
“They leak,” a lab technician said of the bodies.
The sessions, held last month and attended by a
Reuters reporter, weren’t at a hospital or medical school. They were part of a
so-called cadaver lab – and the setting was a Florida resort. It was one of
scores of such events over the past six years that have been held at a hotel or
its convention center.
In this case, doctors practiced nerve root blocks and
other procedures on cadavers in one of the Grand Harbor ballroom’s salons at
Disney’s Yacht & Beach Club Resorts convention center. Online,
Disney refers to its ballrooms as “regal and resplendent.” They’re often
used for wedding receptions.
Disney did not respond to requests for comment for
this article.
Medical training in the United States is usually
done in secure lab facilities equipped specifically for such seminars. But not
always. Reuters identified at least 90 cadaver labs that have taken
place since 2012 at hotels or their convention centers in dozens of
cities, from New York to San Diego. Some of the biggest names in the industry,
from Hilton and Hyatt to Sheraton and Radisson, have hosted the events.
The cadavers used in these seminars are often
procured through body brokers, organizations that acquire bodies donated to
science and then sell or rent the parts for use in medical research and
training.
Body brokers generally refer to themselves as
“non-transplant tissue banks.” They are distinct, however, from the
organ-and-tissue transplant industry, which the U.S. government closely
regulates. No federal law covers the sale or lease of cadavers or body
parts used in research or education, such as those operated on at the Disney
center. That industry is virtually unregulated.
Similarly, there is little, if any, regulation
governing where seminars featuring cadavers and body parts can be held,
although the federal government does have rules on how labs handle medical
waste and bloodborne pathogens.
The World Health Organization says that, “in
general, dead bodies pose no greater risk of infection than the person did
while they were alive.”
To ensure safety, event organizers say they screen
the cadavers for infectious diseases, such as HIV and hepatitis.
Diseases such as tuberculosis, however, cannot
always be identified through screenings. And some medical professionals worry
that some cadavers could spread antibiotic-resistant staph infections or
Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, a rare degenerative brain condition.
----The Hyatt chain has hosted at least 10
seminars that included cadavers since the 2011 incident, Reuters determined.
After Reuters asked about the cadaver labs, Hyatt
spokeswoman Stephanie Lerdall said the hotel chain is now reviewing the
guidance it provides hotels around “medical trainings of this kind.” She
said Hyatt expects anyone using hotel facilities to “operate in a manner
keeping with applicable health and safety protocols.”
FEW REGULATIONS
Cadaver labs are often part of medical association
meetings for practitioners in fields ranging from spinal surgery to
rhinoplasty. Or they are hosted by medical device companies who want
doctors to try new products. The seminars are usually staffed by companies that
run mobile labs. These companies often provide the donated bodies or body parts
used by the doctors – such as torsos, hands, and legs – either from the
company’s own donor program or from other non-transplant tissue banks.
Surgeons say no manikin or computer simulation
can replicate the experience of practicing on a human specimen. And mobile lab
providers say seminars at hotels and convention centers fill a gap. They allow
many more practitioners access to training than could be accommodated at
permanent lab facilities such as hospitals.
More
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-bodies-hotels/
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Robots Will Transform Fast Food
That might not be a bad thing.
Visitors
to Henn-na, a
restaurant outside Nagasaki, Japan, are greeted by a peculiar sight: their food
being prepared by a row of humanoid robots that bear a passing resemblance to
the Terminator. The “head chef,” incongruously named Andrew, specializes in okonomiyaki,
a Japanese pancake. Using his two long arms, he stirs batter in a metal bowl,
then pours it onto a hot grill. While he waits for the batter to cook, he talks
cheerily in Japanese about how much he enjoys his job. His robot colleagues,
meanwhile, fry donuts, layer soft-serve ice cream into cones, and mix drinks.
One made me a gin and tonic.
H.I.S.,
the company that runs the restaurant, as well as a nearby hotel where robots
check guests into their rooms and help with their luggage, turned to automation
partly out of necessity. Japan’s population is shrinking, and its economy is
booming; the unemployment rate is currently an unprecedented 2.8 percent.
“Using robots makes a lot of sense in a country like Japan, where it’s hard to
find employees,” CEO Hideo Sawada told me.
Sawada speculates that 70 percent of the jobs at Japan’s hotels will be
automated in the next five years. “It takes about a year to two years to get
your money back,” he said. “But since you can work them 24 hours a day, and
they don’t need vacation, eventually it’s more cost-efficient to use the
robot.”
This may seem like a vision of the future best suited—perhaps only
suited—to Japan. But according to Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey
Global Institute, many tasks in the food-service and accommodation industry are
exactly the kind that are easily automated. Chui’s latest research estimates
that 54 percent of the tasks workers perform in American restaurants and hotels
could be automated using currently available technologies—making it the
fourth-most-automatable sector in the U.S.
The robots,
in fact, are already here. Chowbotics, a company in Redwood City, California,
manufactures Sally, a boxy robot that prepares salads ordered on a touch
screen. At a Palo Alto café, I watched as she deposited lettuce, corn, barley,
and a few inadvertently crushed cherry tomatoes into a bowl. Botlr, a robot
butler, now brings guests extra towels and toiletries in dozens of hotels
around the country. I saw one at the Aloft Cupertino.
Ostensibly,
this is worrying. America’s economy isn’t humming along nearly as smoothly as
Japan’s, and one of the few bright spots in recent years has been employment in
restaurants and hotels, which have added more jobs than almost any other
sector. That growth, in fact, has helped dull the blow that automation has
delivered to other industries. The food-service and accommodation sector now
employs 13.7 million Americans, up 38 percent since 2000. Since 2013, it has
accounted for more jobs than manufacturing.
----Robots have arrived in American restaurants and hotels for
the same reasons they first arrived on factory floors. The cost of machines,
even sophisticated ones, has fallen significantly in recent years, dropping 40
percent since 2005, according to the Boston Consulting Group. Labor, meanwhile,
is getting expensive, as some cities and states pass laws raising the minimum
wage.
“We think we’ve hit the point where labor-wage rates are now making
automation of those tasks make a lot more sense,” Bob Wright, the chief
operations officer of Wendy’s, said in a conference call with investors last
February, referring to jobs that feature “repetitive production tasks.”
Wendy’s, McDonald’s, and Panera are in the process of installing self-service
kiosks in locations across the country, allowing customers to order without
ever talking to an employee. Starbucks encourages customers to order on its
mobile app; such transactions now account for 10 percent of sales.
More
"John Miller, the CEO of Cali Group, which
owns the chain, says employees don’t like manning the hot, greasy grill. Once
the robots are sweating in the kitchen, human employees will be free to
interact with customers in more-targeted ways, bringing them extra napkins and
asking them how they’re enjoying their burgers. "
My take, once robots are "sweating in the
kitchen," human employees will be released. Diners can fetch their own
extra napkins, if they need them, and a manager can ask them about their
burgers, if so inclined. Cali Goup's CEO needs to rethink his business
model, even if he owns the whole thing. If he keeps employees and his
competitors don't, one of two things happen. They undercut his prices. Prices
remain the same but his competitors make more profits and expand faster.
Neither good for Cali Group.
The fact of disappearing mass jobs, is why the
likes of Zuckerberg and others are busy promoting "universal income."
In reality universal unearned income. There is a limited trial underway
in Finland, with Sweden due to start a trial program next year.
I don't think that the world is yet very aware of
what is coming next decade, certainly not here in GB, from the response I get
here whenever I raise AI and robotics. After fast foods, logistics (trucking) and taxis and Uber, come
next. Across Europe, the resulting social unrest will likely spur swings to the
far left and far right. Comrade Corbyn or his successor here in the UK
where the far right barely exists and has never been credible.
Daniel Webster.
Once again another year draws
to a close. If you are one of the regular reader of this six days a week update
that helps support my efforts with the occasional donation via the Paypal
button, once again I sincerely thank you. If you are a regular reader who finds
the LIR informative, interesting, occasionally amusing or entertaining, please
consider making a small donation via the Paypal button on the LIR website. For
obvious reasons in our new age of almost rampant fake news, I want to keep the
LIR advertising free. But in any event thank you for reading and sending in
helpful suggestions.
“Socialism
only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they
already have it.”
Ronald
Reagan.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November
DJIA: 24,272 +243 Up. NASDAQ: 6,874 +289 Up. SP500: 2,648 +189 Up.
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