Wednesday, 29 June 2016

Brexit Plus 6. EUSSR Brexit Integrals.

Baltic Dry Index. 627 +11       Brent Crude 48.85

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

An integral is a mathematical object that can be interpreted as an area or a generalization of area. Integrals, together with derivatives, are the fundamental objects of calculus. Other words for integral include antiderivative and primitive. The Riemann integral is the simplest integral definition and the only one usually encountered in physics and elementary calculus. In fact, according to Jeffreys and Jeffreys (1988, p. 29), "it appears that cases where these methods [i.e., generalizations of the Riemann integral] are applicable and Riemann's [definition of the integral] is not are too rare in physics to repay the extra difficulty."

 “Solving Brexit! It’s all Greek to me. Can we go back to solving integrals.”

Comrade Juncker.

After two market trading days of Brexit turmoil and panic, stability of a kind returned to markets yesterday as shorts began taking profits, the margin call  selling ended, and the very brave tried their luck at bottom fishing. But I doubt we have seen the last of the Brexit bombshell. We are merely two days away from the end of quarter and end of half year, with a long weekend coming up in America as well. Money managers likely still have a lot of portfolio adjusting to do, to dress up the portfolios to match to the half year indexes. After that will come redemptions, as the gun shy exit the market for at least the summer.

Then we go on watch for sign of the next Lehman surfacing. Europe’s dodgy banks are just that, very dodgy. Under the EU rules currently in effect, if Italian, French, Spanish or German banks need a bailout, the bondholders and depositors get hit first before any taxpayer money becomes available. All of them having just bet wrongly on the Brexit outcome, are now even more dodgy than a week ago, not that they were healthy then. Italy has already called on the EU to drop the bail-in rules for bondholders and depositors. Something very bad is at hand in Italy’s banks it seems.

Global markets steady after Brexit-related rout

Published: June 28, 2016 11:34 p.m. ET
Investors reversed course on some of the most popular bets over the previous two sessions, as traders described a sense of calm returning to a market shaken by the U.K.’s vote last week to leave the European Union.

Stocks rose around the globe, led by the sectors that recently have been beaten down the most, such as banks. Demand for havens eased after two sessions of heady gains. The dollar pared its rise against the British pound GBP, +0.88%  . The price of oil, which had posted its biggest two-day percentage decline since February, recovered slightly.

“After you see two drastic days as you did, people start saying it’s time to buy,” said Frank Ingarra, head trader at NorthCoast Asset Management.

Next, the growing media and bankster campaign to undo Brexit and put the genie back in the bottle. I doubt that the genie will easily comply, even were there a willingness among UK lawmakers to try. After yesterday’s meeting in Brussels, the EU27 seem to have closed off that option, though it’s unclear whether they actually have to power to force out a dithering member that’s only half in. But UK MPs know that thwarting 17 million voters will likely make the UK Independence Party one of the largest in Parliament at the next general election, doing nothing at all for now is their easiest option. Dither, dally and delay, works just fine as a policy for the UK, but leaves the EU27 just twisting in the wind in growing uncertainty and frustration.

The EUSSR is just now slowly coming to terms with the aftermath of having sold Dodgy Dave Cameron a pup that he couldn’t sell to UK voters. They now  have no one to blame but themselves, if UK lawmakers opt for leaving them slowly twisting in the wind for months and months to come. My guess is that this is exactly what will happen as a sort of war of attrition gets underway between the UK and EUSSR. Eventually as at the battle of the Somme which started one hundred years ago on Friday, each side will come to realise the war of attrition is futile. For now though, Merkel and Juncker are still pouring petrol on to the fire.

Dodgy Dave Cameron: "Juncker, I haven't tasted food for 3 days."           
Juncker: "Well, I wouldn't worry about it... it still tastes the same."

How the EU helps out. With apologies to Curly, Moe, and Larry

Opinion: After Brexit, get ready for a Breturn as Britain reverses course

Published: June 28, 2016 11:28 a.m. ET
----There are at least two years until the U.K. finally goes through the exit door, and the political mood is so febrile, it can hardly be guaranteed that step will ever be taken.

The markets have yet to take this into account. While traders have been furiously pricing in the impact of Brexit on both the British and the global economy, there is another possibility they have not even begun to consider: The U.K. may not leave the EU at all, or it may do so in such a tepid way that it hardly counts as quitting. Let’s call it a “Breturn,” as the country returns to the status quo. And since the currency GBPUSD, -0.0974%   and the stock market UKX, +2.64%   plunged on quitting, presumably they should soar should a Breturn take place.

The markets did not see a Brexit majority coming, and nor did the political establishment. The polls always said it was going to be close, but most people chose not to believe them. The decision, when it came, took most investors by surprise, and there was a frenzied wave of panic selling that drove asset prices down right across Europe and, indeed, the world.

In the U.K., however, you would expect the mood to be one of jubilation. After all, this is what the majority of people voted for. There is very little evidence of it, however. A few die-hard Leavers aside, the mood of the past week has been one of anxiety and remorse. There is growing evidence that many people want to fight back against the decision to leave, and their voice is growing in strength.

An online petition demanding that a decision to leave the EU should mean that a majority of 60% on a 75% turnout be required has garnered huge support. It has put on 20,000 votes since I started writing this column and has now passed four million. A poll for the Independent found that 1.1 million of the 17 million Leave voters now regret their decision. On Tuesday, Health Minister Jeremy Hunt argued that there should be a second vote before the U.K. actually left. Expect to hear a lot more of that as the implications of the vote to leave sink in.

Could that actually happen? The answer is surely yes. In fact, there are three scenarios in which it is perfectly plausible that Britain might stay in the EU after all.

The most obvious is a second vote. Leaving the EU is not going to be a simple task for whoever takes over from David Cameron as prime minister. The process takes two years and will require long negotiations about a new trading relationship between Britain and the rest of Europe. A huge amount of legislation will have to be unwound and replaced. After 40 years as part of an increasingly powerful EU, getting out of the web of different treaties and responsibilities will take a huge effort. At the end of that process, a compromise will inevitably be reached, even if it might be messy and won’t please everyone. It would be perfectly sensible for the prime minister to then put that to the vote in another referendum, in which the option of remaining would be on the ballot.

Merkel Says No Way Back From Brexit as Cameron Regrets Loss

June 28, 2016 — 11:31 PM BST Updated on June 29, 2016 — 5:23 AM BST
European Union leaders said there could be no turning back for the U.K. after Prime Minister David Cameron used his last EU summit to express disappointment at his failure to win the referendum he called on Britain’s membership.

 “As of this evening, I see no way back from the Brexit vote,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters after the meeting in Brussels on Tuesday. “This is no time for wishful thinking, but rather to grasp reality.”

Fellow government chiefs lined up to warn Cameron that delaying the period before the U.K formally activates the EU’s exit mechanism will prevent the start of negotiations over any future relationship. The prime minister repeated the message he’d given back home: despite the uncertainty it’s causing, that will be the job for his successor.

During a debrief over dinner, Cameron told his 27 counterparts that their refusal to give him a deal that reduced immigration to the U.K. had cost him the referendum and his job, according to a British government official. He warned them that if they want a close economic relationship with the U.K. in the future, they will have to shift ground and find a way to tackle immigration, the official said.

----As well as dashing lingering hopes among some in the U.K. that the referendum result can be somehow overturned, leaders rebutted claims from pro-Brexit campaigners about the nation’s future relationship with the bloc. Several government chiefs insisted the U.K. cannot expect generous treatment from the EU once it’s no longer a member.

French Election

“The U.K. won’t be able to access the single market without applying the rules of freedom of movement,” French President Francois Hollande said. “This isn’t to punish the British people,” but following the referendum “they will have to face the consequences for some time.”

With Cameron the most high-ranking of a raft of political victims of the referendum in Britain, Hollande signaled that the pros and cons of EU membership are also likely to influence the outcome of the French presidential elections next year.

Leaders expressed a growing frustration across Europe that the June 23 referendum has left a power vacuum in the U.K. and the whole EU in a state of limbo. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the closed-door session that growth in the euro area could decline by as much as 0.5 percentage point for the next three years cumulatively, according to a European official with knowledge of the meeting.

----Juncker said the EU would put a time limit on the U.K.’s triggering of the exit mechanism -- even though legally there is no obligation on Britain to do it at all.

“If someone from the Remain camp will become British prime minister, this has to be done in two weeks after his appointment,” Juncker told reporters as the meeting ended. “If the next British PM is coming from the Leave campaign, it should be done the day after his appointment.”

EU President Donald Tusk, who co-ordinates summits, said the 27 leaders minus Cameron would meanwhile meet Wednesday to undertake “deeper reflection” on a “new impulse for Europe.” He said he plans to call another meeting of the 27 in September.

"On the whole the EU27 want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”

With apologies to George Orwell.
At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 23.36Moz, Eligible 127.90 Moz, Total 151.26 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Not the usual suspects today. Today, Brazil “where the nuts come from,” and the coming Olympic games, now about five weeks away. “Lausanne, we have a problem!”  If the Olympics turn into a gigantic financial flop, the world will soon have another financial crisis in play alongside the EUSSR.

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European Commission.

Amid crisis, Rio gov. warns Olympics could be 'big failure'

By JENNY BARCHFIELD Associated Press Jun 27, 2:46 PM EDT
RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) -- Rio de Janeiro's acting governor warned Monday that the Olympic Games could be a "big failure," because of budget shortfalls that threaten to compromise security and mobility during the games.
In an interview with Rio's O Globo daily, Francisco Dornelles said the state is still awaiting a 2.9 billion Brazilian real ($860 million) payout from the federal government aimed at shoring up state coffers ahead of the Aug. 5-21 event. The funds were allocated last week but have not yet reached the state, and Dornelles warned that without them, police patrols may grind to a halt by the end of the week, for lack of gas money.
"How are people going to feel protected in a city without security," Dornelles was quoted as asking.
"I'm optimistic about the games, but I have to show reality," he said. "We can have a great Olympics, but if some steps aren't taken, it can be a big failure."
Rio has been particularly hard-hit by the recession besetting Brazil, which saw the economy shrink by around 4 percent last year and joblessness spike. The state is highly reliant on sinking oil royalties, and prior governments awarded billions in tax exemptions that resulted in near-empty coffers.
Another worrying issue for Dornelles is the metro line that was meant to ferry tourists to the main Olympic venue in the far-western Rio area of Barra da Tijuca. Promised for late last year, the metro is still not ready. A nearly 1 billion real ($290 million) federal loan aimed at finishing the project has also not yet been released.
"I've said that without security and without the metro there will be difficulties," Dornelles was quoted as saying.
He also called the situation in the state's health care system "calamitous," and said the policy of deferring or paying state workers' salaries in installments "is a form of slave labor."
Formerly Rio's vice governor, 81-year-old Dornelles was thrust into the hot seat after Rio Governor Luiz Fernando Pezao was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and took medical leave earlier this year.
Asked how it's been to deal with the state's financial crisis, Dornelles responded, "for me, it's been a mess."
"I'd already decided to end my political career," he said, adding he'd only accepted the offer to become Pezao's running mate because he thought he'd only have to take over "from time to time."
"And suddenly this bomb fell into my hands," he said.
-----Dornelles' comments came on the heels of another bloody weekend in Rio, which saw a police officer who had been serving as a bodyguard for Paes and a 34-year-old doctor killed in muggings-gone-wrong. Officer Denilson Theodoro de Souza, 48, was shot in the northern Rio neighborhood of Pavuna on Sunday. He was the 49th Rio officer killed since the start of the year, according to O Globo.
A day earlier, Gisele Palhares Gouvea was shot in the head in her car as she entered one of Rio's main expressways on her way to her home in the Barra da Tijuca neighborhood.
Asked about Gouvea's slaying, Dornelles responded, "What a disaster. The security crisis is very serious."
Finality is not the language of politics.
Benjamin Disraeli.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Synthesized microporous 3D graphene-like carbons

June 28, 2016
Zeolites' nanoporous systems are an ideal template for the synthesis of three-dimensional (3D) graphene architecture, but the high temperatures required for their synthesis cause the reactions to occur non-selectively. The team from the IBS Center for Nanomaterials and Carbon Materials lowered the temperature required for the carbonization by embedding lanthanum ions (La3+), a silvery-white metal element, in zeolite pores.

---- On paper, these nanoporous systems are an ideal template for the synthesis of three-dimensional (3D) graphene architecture but the zeolite pores are too small to accommodate bulky molecular compounds like polyaromatic and furfuryl alcohol that are often used in carbon synthesis. Small molecules like ethylene and acetylene can be used as a carbon source to achieve successful carbonization within the zeolite pores, but it comes at a great cost. The high temperatures required for the synthesis cause the reactions to occur non-selectively on the external surfaces of the zeolite as well as the internal pore walls, resulting in coke deposition and consequently causing serious diffusion limitations in the zeolite pores.

----- The team from the IBS Center for Nanomaterials and Carbon Materials solved this conundrum with a novel approach. First author Dr. KIM Kyoungsoo explains: "Zeolite-template carbon synthesis has existed for a long time but the problem with temperatures has foiled many scientists from extracting their full potential. Here, our team sought to find the answer by embedding lanthanum ions (La3+), a silvery-white metal element, in zeolite pores. This lowers the temperature required for the carbonization of ethylene or acetylene. Graphene-like sp2 carbon structure can be selectively formed inside the zeolite template, without carbon deposition at the external surfaces. After the zeolite template is removed, the carbon framework exhibits the electrical conductivity two orders of magnitude higher than amorphous mesoporous carbon, which is a pretty astonishing result. This highly efficient synthesis strategy based on the lanthanum ions renders the carbon framework formation in pores with less than 1 nm diameter as easily reproducible as in mesoporous templates, and thus provides a general method to synthesize carbon nanostructures with various topologies corresponding to the zeolite pore topologies, such as FAU, EMT, beta, LTL, MFI and LTA. Also, all the synthesis can be readily scaled up which is important for practical applications - batteries, fuel storage and other zeolite-like catalyst supports."

The IBS team began their experiment by utilizing La3+ ions. Dr. KIM elucidates why this silvery-white element proved so beneficial to the team, "La3+ ions are unreducible under carbonization process condition, so they can stay inside the zeolite pores instead of moving to the outer zeolite surface in the form of reduced metal particle. Within the pores, they can stabilize ethylene and the pyrocondensation intermediately to form a carbon framework in zeolite."

To test this hypothesis the team compared the amount of carbon deposited in La3+-containing form of Y zeolite (LaY) sample against a host of other samples such as NaY and HY. The experimental results indicate that all the LaY, NaY and HY zeolite samples show rapid carbon deposition at 800°C. However, as the temperature decreases, there appears to be a dramatic difference between the different ionic forms of zeolite. At 600°C, the LaY zeolite is still active as a carbon deposition template. In contrast, both NaY and HY lose their carbon deposition functions almost completely.
Read more at:

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 17787  -20 Up NASDAQ:  4946 +04 Down. SP500: 2097 -18 Up.

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