Monday, 6 June 2016

Brexit Leads.

Baltic Dry Index. 610 +04       Brent Crude 49.99

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Brexit odds checker.

Brexit Quote of the Day.
“It is the destiny of the weak Dave, to be devoured by the strong.”

With apologies to Otto von Bismarck

Despite lining up the massed ranks of world leaders, global banksters, failed ex-GB Prime Ministers, civil servants and UK Police Chiefs, plus the odd retired General, Admiral and Spook, and despite telling just about every lie in the book about how the world will stop spinning if the UK leaves the EUSSR, Dodgy Dave’s Project Fear surrender campaign is now spectacularly misfiring. 
According to the latest poll at the weekend, Leave leads the Remainiacs by four percentage points. Perhaps, but I have little faith in the UK polls. British voters are now inundated by a 24 hour non-stop spin campaign by the Remainiacs, and my guess is that pollsters are just getting the negative feedback to that development. What people do on the day in the polling booth is quite likely to be very different.
Despite all the threats from Dodgy Dave of Brexit Biblical calamities for Great Britain, Project Fear seems to have gone off target and zapped Remainiac Germany and France instead. We open for the week with the European Union. Abandon hope all ye who remain trapped in it.

YouGov Brexit poll for ITV shows 'Leave' leading 'Remain': Bloomberg

Sun Jun 5, 2016 7:54pm EDT
Support for Britain to leave the European Union stood 4 points ahead of support for remaining in the 28-member bloc, according to a YouGov poll for ITV, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The poll for ITV's "Good Morning Britain" program put "Leave" voters at 45 percent and "Remain" at 41 percent, Bloomberg reported, citing an emailed statement ( The poll was based on a Wednesday-Friday survey of 3,405 people.

Britons vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the EU.

Pound Hammered as Brexit Gains Traction in Weekend Polls: Chart

June 6, 2016 — 1:40 AM BST
The pound made a very ugly start to the week as polls showed more Britons are willing to vote to leave the European Union than those ready to vote to stay. With less than three weeks to the June 23 referendum, investors have been disconcerted as the ‘Leave’ campaign gains traction. The currency dropped as much as 1.1 percent to $1.4353 on Monday and was down against all 16 major peers, while one-month volatility surged to 21.34 percent, a level last seen in February 2009.

Hollande says strikes must not disrupt Euro 2016

Sun Jun 5, 2016 5:32pm EDT
President Francois Hollande said on Sunday it would be incomprehensible if transport strikes were to disrupt the Euro 2016 soccer tournament that opens in France on Friday, raising pressure on the militant CGT union to call off the action.

Hollande spoke in a radio interview as an opinion poll showed a majority of French people now opposed the wave of nationwide protests against planned labor law reforms that has disrupted fuel supplies and transport services in recent weeks.

Finance Minister Michel Sapin said the stoppages and street demonstrations, which have hit rail services, power stations, oil refineries, ports and waste treatment plans, were having no significant impact on the economy.

But they have tarnished France's image with scenes of barricades and picket-line violence just as the eyes of Europe are on the host country of the Euro 2016.

"No one would understand it if trains and planes - I'm thinking of the Air France pilots' dispute - were to prevent fans travel ling around easily, even if the competition itself has nothing to fear," Hollande said on France Inter radio.

Rail services have been roughly halved since the CGT and its allies began an open-ended strike last Wednesday. A new round of talks on a reorganization on working time are due to be held at the SNCF state railway on Monday.

Air France pilots have announced plans to strike from Saturday, the second day of the Euros, in a separate dispute over pay cuts.

Worst-in-Decades French Floods Prompt Insurers’ Meeting on Costs

June 5, 2016 — 7:05 PM BST Updated on June 5, 2016 — 11:00 PM BST
Insurers are to meet Monday in the French prime minister’s office in Paris to assess the cost from adverse weather and flooding in the Centre and Ile-de-France regions as the Seine river recedes from its highest levels in more than three decades.

The river, which flows through the capital city, has been dropping after peaking at 6.10 meters (20 feet) above its benchmark level at 2 a.m. on Saturday. It was at 5.5 meters at 6 p.m. Sunday, according to Vigicrues, the French floods watchdog. The Seine last week was near the 6.18 meters reached in Paris in 1982, according to data from the Environment & Energy Ministry.

Finance Minister Michel Sapin said the natural disaster won’t dent the French economy and called for “quick” compensation of the victims. He spoke on RTL radio on Sunday. All ministers and agency administrators involved in responding to the floods will meet with the prime minister later Monday, according to a statement from the minister’s office.

The cabinet probably will declare the floods a “natural catastrophe” as soon as June 8 during its weekly meeting, opening the way for insurer payments, President Francois Hollande said Sunday on France Inter radio.

The cost for insurers may reach 600 million euros ($682 million), the French insurance-industry association AFA said June 3. Maif, one of France’s biggest insurance companies, said expenses may be as much as 2 billion euros, the Figaro daily reported.

Germany: Flash flooding threat to diminish on Monday

June 5, 2016; 8:02 PM ET
After the past week brought several days of flash flooding across Germany, most residents will see a welcome break from the rain early in the week as high pressure brings more settled weather.

Several days of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the past week have caused flooding in parts of Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria resulting in the death of at least eight people.

The first round of deadly flooding occurred on Sunday, May 29, and was followed by a second round on Wednesday.

An aerial view shows the flooded streets and damages in Simbach am Inn, southern Germany, Thursday, June 2, 2016. Several people died when the small town was hit by heavy flooding the day before. (Tobias Hase/dpa via AP)

Locations at risk for heavy thunderstorms include Munich, Stuttgart, Nuremberg, Frankfurt and Cologne. An afternoon thunderstorm could threaten Berlin as well, though the flood threat will not be as high as in areas farther to the south.

The strongest storms will be capable of producing rainfall in excess of 50 mm (2 inches) within an hour or two and damaging hail.

In addition to heavy rain and hail, thunderstorms will bring dangerous lightning. As reported by the BBC, at least 51 people were injured at a rock festival when lightning struck the venue very early on Saturday morning, local time.

The slow movement of these storms can lead to extreme rainfall in a short time period resulting in flash flooding.

Europe’s Worst Bond Market Doesn’t Look Like It’s Getting Better

June 6, 2016 — 12:01 AM BST
---- After a rally in Greek debt in recent weeks, the country is the only part of the euro region to lose money for investors this year. Now the difference between their 10-year borrowing costs has narrowed to the least since the European Central Bank unveiled its bond-purchase plan in January 2015. What makes it more notable is that Greece doesn’t qualify for the quantitative easing program, which has propped up markets. Portugal does.

While Greece won a new chunk of aid last month and a promise to look again at potential debt relief in the future, Portugal is going backward, at least in the eyes of some investors. Prime Minister Antonio Costa increased public sector wages and is reducing the working week as he reverses some measures introduced during the bailout program Portugal exited in 2014. Like Greece, Portugal still has bad loans at its banks to address.
“Changes to the reforms done by the previous government has led investors to have a perception of increased risk,” said Diogo Teixeira, chief executive officer of Optimize Investment Partners, a Lisbon-based firm that manages about 120 million euros ($134 million). “An improvement isn’t foreseen in the short term. If more risk factors appear, it’s not the ECB’s QE that will stop an increase in Portugal’s yields.”
Portuguese debt is rated junk by Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s. The government forecasts debt will decline for a second year to 124.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2016. The European Commission forecasts economic growth of 1.5 percent for Portugal this year, compared with 2.6 percent for Spain or 4.9 percent for Ireland, which also went through an international rescue package.

EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker appears to be drunk in bizarre video of him hopping from foot to foot and slapping other leaders 

  • Video shows President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker
  • Juncker appears 'drunk' in the video footage, slapping EU leaders 
  • EU President also heard calling the Hungarian PM 'dictator' at the summit
  • He was with other leaders at the EU-Eastern Partnership summit in Latvia  
By Amie Gordon For Mailonline |
Video footage has emerged which appears to show the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, 'drunk' at an EU summit.

In the clip, which has just surfaced online, Juncker can be seen repeatedly slapping EU leaders, hopping from foot to foot and dancing - leaving many to question whether he was under the influence of alcohol.

He was also heard calling the Hungarian Prime Minister 'dictator' in front of those present at the EU-Eastern Partnership summit.

---- The president merrily greets other EU leaders at the event, patting them on the cheeks, putting his arms around their shoulders - and even performing a jig on the spot. 

While his lighthearted and jovial behaviour appears to make his peers giggle, at one point he gets pulled back and made to stand still. 

He also kisses one leader on the cheek at one point in the video. 

The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 23.15 Moz, Eligible 130.89 Moz, Total 154.04 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Not the usual suspects today. This morning it looks like an interesting week ahead, in politics and in the markets.
May you live in interesting times.
Alleged Chinese curse.

Eyes on Yellen for rate-hike signals after payroll data shocks

Sun Jun 5, 2016 5:34am EDT
Investors will be looking for signals from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen this week about the U.S. central bank's next rate move after shockingly weak payroll data all but killed off chances for a hike this month.
But the focus will also not stray far from developments in Britain as voters there prepare to vote in a referendum on June 23 on whether to stay in the European Union.
Expectations for the next Fed rate hike were knocked back to at least July or later after U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday showed U.S. employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, far below expectations of 164,000.
At an event on Monday in Philadelphia, Yellen gets her last chance to offer insight into Fed thinking before a media blackout takes effect ahead of the June 14-15 monetary policy meeting.
"We will have to listen carefully for her analysis of what definitely is a deterioration of the labor market conditions," economists at BNP Paribas wrote in a note.
Investors will be looking to see whether Yellen, who had said last month she expected interest rates to rise "in the coming months", sticks to her tune after the data.
The Fed raised its key benchmark interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade, but has held off since then due to concerns earlier this year about a global economic slowdown and financial market volatility.
The latest polls on British voters' intentions in the EU referendum will guide investor risk appetite with recent surveys suggesting the Brexit camp making creeping gains.
Investment bank J.P. Morgan said on Friday that opinion polls suggest the "In" camp had seen its lead narrow to just two percentage points from nearly eight points just over a week ago.
"As we move closer to the referendum date, markets are likely to become ever more sensitive to the signals stemming from Brexit polls," Unicredit fixed income strategist Kornelius Purps wrote in a note.
UK manufacturing output data from April will offer insight on Wednesday into how much damage the uncertainty over the referendum is wreaking on the British economy with economists expecting on average a flat reading.
In the euro zone, the industrial sector will offer clues into how well the economic recovery there is holding up heading into the second quarter.
Economists polled by Reuters are on average looking for German industrial output on Tuesday to show a 0.6 percent jump in April, recovering somewhat after a 1.3 percent drop the previous month.
In France, April industrial production is seen bouncing back 0.4 percent while Italian output is seen picking up to 0.9 percent after stalling in March.
Brexit The Animated Movie.

Brexit Quote of the week.

'You just never know. That unpredictability is the great thing about life. You change. The world changes. You live in a country where we are still blessed with enormous opportunity. Leave yourself open to the world of possibility. You have the ambition, you have the smarts and you have the toughness. So, turn the page on your biography - you have just started a new chapter in your lives.'

Lloyd Blankfein CEO of Goldman unintentionally backs Brexit in a US speech to graduates.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Graphene-based transparent electrodes for highly efficient flexible OLEDS

Date: June 4, 2016

Source: The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Summary: A research team has developed highly flexible OLEDs with excellent efficiency by using graphene as a transparent electrode (TE) which is placed in between titanium dioxide (TiO2) and conducting polymer layers.
The arrival of a thin and lightweight computer that even rolls up like a piece of paper will not be in the far distant future. Flexible organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), built upon a plastic substrate, have received greater attention lately for their use in next-generation displays that can be bent or rolled while still operating.
A Korean research team led by Professor Seunghyup Yoo from the School of Electrical Engineering, KAIST and Professor Tae-Woo Lee from the Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) has developed highly flexible OLEDs with excellent efficiency by using graphene as a transparent electrode (TE) which is placed in between titanium dioxide (TiO2) and conducting polymer layers. The research results were published online on June 2, 2016 in Nature Communications.
OLEDs are stacked in several ultra-thin layers on glass, foil, or plastic substrates, in which multi-layers of organic compounds are sandwiched between two electrodes (cathode and anode). When voltage is applied across the electrodes, electrons from the cathode and holes (positive charges) from the anode draw toward each other and meet in the emissive layer. OLEDs emit light as an electron recombines with a positive hole, releasing energy in the form of a photon. One of the electrodes in OLEDs is usually transparent, and depending on which electrode is transparent, OLEDs can either emit from the top or bottom.
In conventional bottom-emission OLEDs, an anode is transparent in order for the emitted photons to exit the device through its substrate. Indium-tin-oxide (ITO) is commonly used as a transparent anode because of its high transparency, low sheet resistance, and well-established manufacturing process. However, ITO can potentially be expensive, and moreover, is brittle, being susceptible to bending-induced formation of cracks.
Graphene, a two-dimensional thin layer of carbon atoms tightly bonded together in a hexagonal honeycomb lattice, has recently emerged as an alternative to ITO. With outstanding electrical, physical, and chemical properties, its atomic thinness leading to a high degree of flexibility and transparency makes it an ideal candidate for TEs. Nonetheless, the efficiency of graphene-based OLEDs reported to date has been, at best, about the same level of ITO-based OLEDs.
As a solution, the Korean research team, which further includes Professors Sung-Yool Choi (Electrical Engineering) and Taek-Soo Kim (Mechanical Engineering) of KAIST and their students, proposed a new device architecture that can maximize the efficiency of graphene-based OLEDs. They fabricated a transparent anode in a composite structure in which a TiO2 layer with a high refractive index (high-n) and a hole-injection layer (HIL) of conducting polymers with a low refractive index (low-n) sandwich graphene electrodes. This is an optical design that induces a synergistic collaboration between the high-n and low-n layers to increase the effective reflectance of TEs. As a result, the enhancement of the optical cavity resonance is maximized. The optical cavity resonance is related to the improvement of efficiency and color gamut in OLEDs. At the same time, the loss from surface plasmon polariton (SPP), a major cause for weak photon emissions in OLEDs, is also reduced due to the presence of the low-n conducting polymers.
Under this approach, graphene-based OLEDs exhibit 40.8% of ultrahigh external quantum efficiency (EQE) and 160.3 lm/W of power efficiency, which is unprecedented in those using graphene as a TE. Furthermore, these devices remain intact and operate well even after 1,000 bending cycles at a radius of curvature as small as 2.3 mm. This is a remarkable result for OLEDs containing oxide layers such as TiO2 because oxides are typically brittle and prone to bending-induced fractures even at a relatively low strain. The research team discovered that TiO2 has a crack-deflection toughening mechanism that tends to prevent bending-induced cracks from being formed easily.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 17787  -20 Up NASDAQ:  4946 +04 Down. SP500: 2097 -18 Up.

No comments:

Post a Comment