Tuesday, 21 June 2016

B-Day Minus 2. The Billionaires Panic.

Baltic Dry Index. 582 -05       Brent Crude 50.41

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Brexit odds checker.

Brexit Quote of the Day.
“I don't see why we need to stand by and watch a country go free due to the irresponsibility of its people. The issues are much too important for the British voters to be left to decide for themselves.”
Juncker, with apologies to Henry Kissinger and Chile.

It is almost referendum day in Great Britain, and Project Fear and Smear has gone into a never ending barrage of GB Armageddon disaster news.The sky is falling. It is impossible now in modern Britain to avoid the incessant barrage from the Remainiacs surrender campaign. According to the latest news from the fat cats of the City of London, God will leave the Universe if the EUSSR’s British serfs vote for Brexit. Just wait until later in the year when the same campaign gets a second outing in America against Donald Trump. Sadly for the Remainiacs, panic does not yet run in GBs streets. People seem more interested in a lethargic England football team’s indifferent progress to the knockout stage of the European Cup, and the more determined Welsh team’s progress to the next stage as well.
The reality is that GB will do just fine, inside or outside the dying EUSSR. GB is a dynamic, well-educated country, of entrepreneurs, inventive, innovative, with good rule of law, a well developed sense of fair play, and its own fiat currency. A Brexit vote will have virtually negligible impact on a 60+ trillion global economy. The Great Wall of China will not come tumbling down if British voters vote to exit the wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR. Nor will disaster sweep over the world if American voters opt to elect the outsider Donald Trump in November, rather than the dodgy insider, warmonger, Hillary Clinton.
Whether the world plunges into a new recession, will be determined not by events in Great Britain, but by whether the US economy is already entering a recession. Whether China’s Great Slowdown results in a crash landing. Whether the slow motion Japanese car crash moves up a gear or two. And what happens next in Europe, where France, Italy and Spain are all in the process of committing national economic suicide. If the Remainiac’s Fear and Smear campaign wins, my guess is that it just buys a ticket to a much bigger problem as the EUSSR falls apart in the next two years.
Below this morning’s instalment of Chicken Little.

Brexit Vote in Balance as Polls Differ Over Which Side Leads

June 21, 2016 — 12:09 AM BST Updated on June 21, 2016 — 4:10 AM BST
Britain’s referendum on European Union membership remained too close to call two days before the vote, with separate polls showing leads for both sides and billionaire investor George Soros warning of a slump in the pound should voters back Brexit.

A YouGov poll of 1,652 voters for the Times newspaper published late on Monday showed “Leave” at 44 percent and 42 percent for “Remain”, while a survey of 800 people by ORB for the Daily Telegraph had “Remain” at 53 percent and “Leave” at 46 percent among those certain to vote.

The pound surged the most since 2008 on Monday as investors bet that the referendum was swinging in favor of “Remain.” Still, Soros, who made $1 billion betting on a devaluation of the pound in 1992, warned that the possibility of the U.K. leaving the EU is still a real risk which could cut currency’s value by a fifth.

----In championing the "Remain" campaign, Prime Minister David Cameron and his Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne have focused on the risks to the British economy if Britain quits the bloc.

“Why are people now delaying buying a home or buying a car if they are not fearful of the consequences of a vote to leave?” Osborne said in an LBC radio interview. “Brexit’s OK if you’re very rich, but for the rest of the country who will have to live with the consequences, not just for Friday morning but for decades to come, they have nowhere else to go.”

The campaign to stay went mostly unhampered as lawmakers paused an often-virulent contest on Monday to pay tribute to murdered colleague Jo Cox. Cameron and opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn led tributes to the Labour politician killed on Thursday after Parliament was recalled from a pre-referendum recess. Recalling Cox’s work on behalf of refugees, Cameron quoted her own words: “We are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us.”

Soros Warns Brexit May Cause Pound Plunge Worse Than Black Wednesday

June 20, 2016 — 10:22 PM BST Updated on June 20, 2016 — 11:03 PM BST
Billionaire investor George Soros said the pound may slump more than 20 percent against the dollar if British voters decided to leave the European Union, a devaluation bigger and more disruptive than when he profited by betting against the currency in 1992.

“Brexit would make some people very rich, but most voters considerably poorer,” Soros wrote in an op-ed published in the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper on Tuesday.

The pound would fall by at least 15 percent if the nation votes to leave the trading block and potentially more than 20 percent to below $1.15, the investor wrote. He said voters are grossly underestimating the true costs of Brexit, which will have an “immediate and dramatic impact” on financial markets, investments and jobs.

Governments and investors around the world are closely monitoring the June 23 referendum amid concern that a U.K. decision to leave the EU would spark turmoil across financial markets. The pound surged the most since 2008 on Monday, spurring a global rally in higher-yielding currencies, as polls signalled the campaign to remain in the EU was gaining momentum.

Click here for a guide on what to look out for on the night of the vote count

The day after the referendum, the pound will either sink to the lowest level in more than three decades or climb toward the highest this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. In the event of a leave vote, most forecasters saw the pound falling to a range from $1.25 to $1.40, while a decision to remain could boost the currency within its current range or beyond $1.50.

A more than 20 percent slump would result in the pound at a level that would ironically mean the currency would be worth about one euro, a method of “joining the euro” that nobody in Britain would want, Soros said.

Soros said a large devaluation of the pound would be less benign than in 1992 because the Bank of England won’t be able to cut interest rates if voters decide to leave the EU since rates are already at low levels. The central bank will also have little room to move in the strong likelihood of a recession after Brexit caused by a decline in house prices and a loss of jobs.

“Today, there are speculative forces in the markets much bigger and more powerful,” Soros said. “And they will be eager to exploit any miscalculations by the British government or British voters.”

Soros cited Britain’s large current account deficit, larger than 1992 and 2008, saying the nation is more dependent than ever on foreign capital. After a Brexit, capital flows would reverse, especially during the two years of uncertainty when Britain negotiates its exit from the EU, he wrote.

Soros said a post-Brexit devaluation is unlikely to result in an improvement in manufacturing exports that was seen after 1992 because trading conditions will be too uncertain for British businesses to make new investments, hire more workers or add to export capacity.

Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Warns Against Brexit as Referendum Looms

June 21, 2016 — 12:07 AM BST

Hong Kong’s richest man stepped up his calls for Britons to vote in favor of staying in the European Union as the world braces for the outcome of this week’s vote.

"If Brexit happens, it will be detrimental to the U.K. and it will have a negative impact to the whole of Europe," CK Hutchison Holding Ltd. Chairman Li Ka-shing told Bloomberg Television’s Angie Lau in a wide-ranging interview, his first with international media since 2012. "Of course I hope that the U.K. doesn’t leave the EU."
As one of the U.K.’s biggest investors, Li has much at stake in the June 23 referendum and his concerns echo those voiced by business and market leaders worldwide as they prepare for the possible fallout from Britain leaving the 28-nation bloc. Executives at Toyota Motor Corp. to General Electric Co. have warned that future spending in the country could be undermined if voters choose to leave the EU.


The Brexit vote: Everything you need to know about the referendum

Published: June 20, 2016 11:35 a.m. ET
The clock is ticking down to the British referendum that will decide the U.K.’s relationship with Europe for generations to come—high time for a look at what will happen in the vote itself.

First, the big picture. The issue is whether the country should exit the European Union or stay within the bloc. The “leave” camp argue the EU is a very different proposition to the European Economic Community that Britain joined in 1973. Since then, its scope has widened to cultural, judicial and other areas beyond that economic Common Market.

On the other side, the “remain” camp argues that the U.K. gains in economic benefits, security and global influence from being a key member of a large bloc of nations.

Those are the two sides in the June vote. Below is an explanation of who is eligible to cast a ballot and the other “mechanics” of the referendum. When will the result be known? What will happen next? Here key things to know about the in/out vote over the issue widely known as Brexit.
What will the referendum question be?
The wording is:

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

There are two options for voters: “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the European Union.”

----Polling stations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be open on June 23 between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. local time, or 2 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time.

The ballot count is expected to start as soon as the polling stations close. The result should be known by early morning on Friday, June 24, though this depends on the circumstances in the 382 local areas where the count is being carried out.

The first set of results look likely to be released at 12:30 a.m. local time, Credit Suisse said in a research note. The bank’s research analysts expect one quarter of the votes to have been counted by 3 a.m., and half by 4 a.m. They are expecting the final set of results at 7 a.m.

----With just days away from the vote, polls showed there was a narrow resurgence in support for the U.K. staying in the EU. In one survey, a Sunday Times poll conducted by YouGov put the pro-EU camp at 44% and support for Brexit support at 43%.
“The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer
Dodgy Dave Cameron. With apologies to Henry Kissinger.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 23.94Moz, Eligible 127.12 Moz, Total 151.06 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In America a new casino gets the Ok to open. The other casino owners don't like it one bit.

U.S. SEC approves IEX as national stock exchange

Fri Jun 17, 2016 7:42pm EDT
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has granted the hotly debated request by alternative trading group IEX Group Inc to launch a new U.S. public stock exchange, a move likely to intensify arguments over current market structure.
IEX, made famous by Michael Lewis' 2014 book "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt," is notable because it would be the only exchange in the United States to include a so-called speed bump - a 350 millionths-of-a-second delay in all incoming and outcoming orders.
According to IEX, that delay protects investors from high-frequency traders who can pick up on trading signals and use their faster technology to electronically front-run slower investors.
Other exchanges, including Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange and BATS Global Markets, have vigorously opposed the idea of IEX gaining regulatory approval as a U.S. stock exchange. Nasdaq has suggested that any SEC approval could be legally challenged.
The approval marks the first time in three years that the SEC has sanctioned a new trading exchange. The most recent approval was when International Securities Exchange's options exchange, ISE Gemini, received the green light in July 2013.
Critics of the application have argued the speed bump violates the SEC's own rule against intentional delays of price displays, also known as Regulation NMS, for National Market System.
Competing exchanges have also complained about IEX asking for discretion to send orders to other exchanges without a speed bump. Critics say this would give IEX too much leeway to decide how individual trades are made, with some trades being based on delayed quotes and others executed immediately.
The IEX decision comes as the biggest exchanges have been losing market share to private trading venues, called dark pools, and other newer exchanges. The New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Arca, for example, combined for about 29 percent of market share in 2009, based on trading volume. They now have about 24 percent market share this year, according to Rosenblatt Securities data.
Any new exchange coming online would add a player to the pie, meaning revenue from market participants would be split among more competing exchanges. In addition, IEX's speed bump could dampen trading volumes, which would also drag on exchange revenue.
IEX expects to implement trading in all stock symbols on Sept. 2, ceasing operations of the IEX Alternative Trading System (ATS), also known as a dark pool, according to its website.

Brexit The Animated Movie.

Brexit Quote of the week.

“The old grey donkey, Cameron stood by himself in a thistly corner of the Forest, his feet well apart, his head on one side, and thought about things. Sometimes he thought sadly to himself, "Why?" and sometimes he thought, "Wherefore?" and sometimes he thought, "Inasmuch as which?" and sometimes he didn't quite know what he was thinking about.”

Dodgy Dave Cameron, with apologies to A.A. Milne, and Winnie-the-Pooh

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Businesses have seen the light with solar energy and it's finally paying off

A visit to a small hospital in northern Ghana changed Mahama Nyankamawu’s life forever. “It was dark, they had no electricity and the medicines they had had all gone bad,” recalled the 40-year-old, who went to the hospital after a car accident in 2014.

The experience inspired Nyankamawu to create Volta, a company that builds solar power projects for health clinics, schools and farms across Ghana.

Volta’s customers pay for 25% of the capital costs upfront, and the rest via monthly payments over two years. None of Nyankamawu’s customers have ever missed a payment, Nyankamawu said.

“Our model works best when it’s a substitute for people who are already using diesel generators,” he added. “They’re saving up to 45% on their costs by switching to solar.”

I met Nyankamawu at the Clean Energy Ministerial in San Francisco earlier this month, an annual gathering of energy leaders from 23 countries and the European Union. The meeting marked the first time the ministers met since more than 170 countries signed the Paris climate agreement to limit the global temperature rise to under 2C, a goal that won’t be met without strong domestic policies that give the businesses incentives to invest in a low-carbon future.

I often hear criticisms that businesses, which account for most of the manmade emissions that are causing global warming, aren’t doing their part to keep the rising temperatures in check. Surveys and anecdotal evidence show that many corporate leaders don’t see their role in this global effort.

But that’s not what I have seen. A growing number of companies are turning to renewable energy to reduce their carbon footprint. I am impressed with entrepreneurs like Nyankamawu and other business leaders who work on making renewable energy affordable and accessible. And they represent progress. Putting money in renewable energy, whether through power purchase agreements with big solar and wind farms in the US, or tiny household-sized solar projects in Africa, was a rarity even just five years ago.

---- One of the most impressive efforts I heard at the San Francisco meeting came from Lisa Jackson, who leads Apple’s environmental and social initiatives. Jackson talked about the company’s effort to use solar and wind energy to run its own global operations and the factories in China that make its iPhones and iPads, including a plan to bring online 2,000 megawatts of green energy there. The company would work with its suppliers there to build those projects.

Some of the most compelling stories came from Africa. Home to the world’s fastest growing population, the continent is a key front in the Paris climate agreement’s quest. In Tanzania, Off-Grid Electric allows homes and small businesses to install solar systems and pay for them via mobile phone payments. Off-Grid says it’s currently installing more than 10,000 solar units every month in Tanzania and Rwanda, and recently raised $70m from San Francisco-based DBL Partners and other investors to help hire more staff and expand operations.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 17787  -20 Up NASDAQ:  4946 +04 Down. SP500: 2097 -18 Up.

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