"If Brexit were to occur, continental Europe will be
relegated to second rank status."
Deutsche Bank.
Today
an update on Brexit from two different European banks. Brexit hurts the EUSSR
more than it hurts Great Britain, both seem to agree. But thanks to Merkel’s
Madness in inviting all the world’s economic migrants to somehow get to Germany
for a job, benefits, free housing, and unprotected free German women, Brexit
has never looked better in Britain. And
as a British exit looms, the UK currency sinks giving the UK an exports advantage in the new round of currency wars
set off by Japan just yesterday. How long before China responds with a Yuan
devaluation?
'Devastating' Brexit will consign Europe to a second rate world power, warns Deutsche Bank
"The implications of the UK not being in the EU will be truly devastating for Europe" says David Folkerts-Landau
Britain's
exit from the European Union would have a "devastating" impact on the
continent, relegating Europe to the status of a second-rank world power, a
leading investment bank has warned.
David
Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said a Europe without
British influence would greatly diminish the EU's diplomatic clout at a time
when it faces an unprecedented security threat from a revanchist Russia.
"The
implications of the UK not being in the EU will be truly devastating for
Europe," said Mr Folkerts-Laundau.
A
German-born economist, Mr Folkerts-Laundau warned the geopolitical impact of a
Brexit had become a "forgotten dimension" of the EU debate.
"Europe
will become far less important and its impact on foreign policy, within the UN
and global decision making, will be diminished," he said.
Without
the UK, Europe could no longer lay claim to the centre of global capitalism:
"It would lose London and the Anglo-Saxon connection," said Mr Folkerts-Laundau.
Power
dynamics within the EU would also become fundamentally "disturbed" as
the Franco-German axis would dominate the continent. "The checks and
balances imparted by the UK will be gone".
The warning came as economists said Britain could see 2pc of GDP wiped off the economy in the aftermath of a 'leave' vote.
Credit Suisse said a "toxic blend" of collapsing business confidence, higher inflation and falling incomes, could lead to a sharp contraction in growth after a Brexit vote.
Research
from Deutsche Bank shows sentiment for staying in the EU is closely linked with
the eurozone's economic fortunes - supporting the case for an early referendum
as the currency bloc enjoys a cyclical recovery.
But Mr
Folkerts-Laundau said there was no easy way out of the eurozone's economic
malaise.
Unprecedented
stimulus measures from the European Central Bank were the only things standing
in the way of another financial crisis in Europe, he warned.
"If
the ECB was to step back from that you would have a massive sovereign debt
crisis," he said.
Despite
enjoying a virtuous trinity of falling oil prices, low interest rates and
looser fiscal policy, growth in the eurozone is only expected to reach 1.7pc
this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Britain and the US are
expected to expand by 2.2pc and 2.6pc respectively.
Mr
Folkers-Laundau said growth needed to exceed 2pc a year for the eurozone to
tackle massive stocks of government debt in Italy and Portugal.
Brexit vote could turn UK into a 'safe haven' triggering EU disintegration, say Barclays
Britain's exit from EU would open a 'Pandora's Box' in Europe, a threat which has been underestimated by financial markets, warn analysts
A British
exit from the European Union could see the UK becoming a "safe haven"
amid a disintegrating Europe, Barclays has said.
Analysis
from the bank said a 'leave' vote would open a "Pandora's Box" in the
crisis-hit continent, and could dissuade Scotland from breaking away from the
relative safety of the UK.
Barclays said financial markets had failed to grasp
the sheer "breadth" of the British vote, calling it one of "the
most significant global risks of the year", and one which could lead to the
collapse of the European project.
Investors have been selling off the pound in
anticipation of an EU referendum, which could take place as early as the
summer. Sterling has depreciated by 9pc against the single currency since
November.
But if
Britain voted for an EU exit, the political and institutional reverberations on
the continent would be far greater than any economic fall-out, said the bank,
who compared the implications to that of a "Grexit".
A number
of European countries would be caught in the grip of extremist left-wing and
right-wing populist parties, pushing them towards leaving the EU, they said.
"If
politics in the EU turned for the worse, the UK may be seen as a safe haven
from those risks, reversing the euro's exchange rate appreciation", said
the report's authors.
"In
that environment, Scottish voters could be even less inclined to leave the
relative safety of the UK for an increasingly uncertain EU".
The
warning echoes fears that Europe, rather than the UK, would suffer the worst
consequences of a Brexit.
More
Odds of Fed Hike This Year Are Practically a Toss-Up After BOJ's Surprise Move
January
29, 2016 — 3:38 PM GMT Updated on January 30, 2016 — 5:01 AM GMT
The bond market is even more skeptical about the
chances of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year after the Bank of
Japan’s surprise policy move.
Treasuries
wrapped up a 2.3 percent gain in January, the best month in a year, after the
BOJ introduced negative interest rates for some bank reserves. The decision
prompted traders to assign less than a 60 percent probability that the Fed will
boost its benchmark even once this year, down from the 93 percent likelihood
seen Dec. 31. When policy makers lifted the target from near zero last
month, their median projection called for four increases in 2016.
The move from Japan is another sign of slowing global economic growth, which has triggered volatility across global markets, depressed traders’ inflation expectations and spurred a rally in U.S. debt. The European Central Bank has also signaled it may add stimulus. The policy divergence between the U.S. and other major economies risks strengthening the greenback by luring investors to higher-yielding American assets. That could further damp inflation in the U.S., which hasn’t reached the Fed’s 2 percent target since 2012.
“It’s going to make it very hard for the Fed to be the sole holdout, the one that’s hiking while everyone else is cutting below zero,” said Aaron Kohli, an interest-rate strategist in New York with BMO Capital Markets, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “Up until now, we had hoped we’d see some stability in foreign-exchange rates, and we wouldn’t see further pressure of the disinflationary kind from abroad.”
More
US economy slows sharply in the final quarter
Weak US growth figures add to global gloom as economists say March rate hike by the Federal Reserve now less likely
US growth
slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year as consumer spending moderated
and a stronger dollar hit exports.
The
world's largest economy expanded at an annualised pace of 0.7pc in the fourth
quarter of 2015, following growth of 2pc in the previous quarter, according to
the US department of commerce.
The
expansion was slightly weaker than economists' expectations and was dragged
down by a wider trade deficit, which shaved 0.47 percentage points off GDP
growth. Lower inventories reduced growth by another 0.45 percentage points.
Consumer
spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US growth, rose 2.2pc in
the fourth quarter, compared with 3pc in the third quarter, as the unusually
mild weather hurt sales of winter clothing in December.
Economists said Friday's data added to evidence that the global economy was in a soft patch. While labour market data have shown strong job gains, many believe recent stock market turbulence makes a March interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve less likely.
"The trend in US growth has clearly slowed. Even allowing for the fact that this data is choppy, and considering the last two quarters as a moving average, growth is now barely 1.5pc," said Rob Carnell, an economist at ING. "If this feeds through into softer hiring trends, then we can forget further rate hikes from the Fed any time soon."
More
"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."
Elgin Groseclose
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