Tuesday, 26 January 2016

2016- The Bad News Bears.

Baltic Dry Index. 354 - unch        Brent Crude 29.80

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

[Prices] are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

Jesse Livermore.

Friday’s oil bull raid on the futures shorts over, the oil market got back to reality again yesterday. Demand is falling supply isn’t, with Iran ramping up to bring on-stream an extra 300,000 bpd in March, and up to another 500,000 bpd by year end. Bull raid short squeezes aside, fun though they are for the professional raiders scalping the HFT algo thieves, there’s little reason to think that the crude oil bear market will bottom any time soon.

I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.

Jesse Livermore.

Oil Drops as Saudis to Maintain Spending, China Diesel Use Falls

January 25, 2016 — 12:06 AM GMT Updated on January 25, 2016 — 8:36 PM GMT
Oil dropped after Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, said low prices won’t reduce its spending on energy projects and China’s diesel demand fell for a fourth consecutive month.

Futures tumbled 5.8 percent in New York. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, is maintaining its investment plans despite the rout in the crude market, Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said Monday. Diesel use in China dropped 5.6 percent in December compared with a year earlier and gasoline consumption grew at the slowest pace in more than two years.

Oil resumed its decline after the biggest two-day rally in more than seven years as concerns persist over ample U.S. stockpiles, steady production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and the outlook for increasing Iranian shipments after the end of sanctions. Prices may take as long as three years to normalize, according to Bank of Montreal Chief Executive Officer William Downe.

"A decline is to be expected after a giant move like we just had," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA in New York. "We’re also down because the Chinese demand numbers were off considerably, especially diesel. The Saudis aren’t helping the market by deciding that they will go full-speed ahead with their investment plans."

In Asian news, markets took the elevator down again, as yet more news of the global slowdown surfaced. In 2016 so far, if it wasn.t for bad news there’d be no news at all, just don’t let on the stock promoting shills of bubblevision.

I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.

Jesse Livermore.

Asian shares, oil skid as global growth concerns dominate

Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:06am EST
Asian shares retreated on Tuesday, with fears of global economic slowdown showing no sign of abating as oil prices plunged on new worries about oversupply by top producers.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 2.3 percent while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index .HSI fell 1.9 percent, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS falling 1.1 percent after two days of gains since late last week.

European shares are expected to follow suit. Spreadbetters are expecting Britain's FTSE .FTSE and France's CAC 40 to .FCHI fall by as much as 0.8 percent and Germany's DAX .GDAX to drop 0.7 percent.

"Wherever you look - China, oil and the U.S., there is no clear evidence of improvement in economic fundamentals. So in the near term, it is hard to expect risk asset prices to gain further after a spate of short-covering," said Tatsushi Maeno, managing director at PineBridge Investments.

Crude oil prices have tumbled around 7 percent so far this week as top producers show no sign of cutting production.

The chairman of Saudi Aramco said on Monday the firm is continuing to invest in oil and gas production capacity, despite cost-cutting because of low oil prices.

Iraq's output reached a record last month and a senior Iraqi official said Iraq may raise output further this year.

---- Financial shares were also badly hit as investors grew concerned about their heavy lending to the energy sector.

U.S. financial shares .SPSY in fact have fallen 12.8 percent so far this year, more than the energy sector's 11.2.

Apple set for slowest ever iPhone sales growth

Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:04am EST
Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is expected to report iPhone sales increased slightly more than 1 percent in the holiday quarter when it announces earnings on Tuesday, its slowest growth ever and far from the double-digit growth investors have come to expect.

The iPhone 6S and 6S Plus, which boasted record weekend sales when they launched in September, are now facing weak demand, according to analysts, because they have fewer distinguishing features than their popular predecessors.

The new iPhones also face tough comparisons with the strong sales of their older siblings.

Apple tapped into a crucial market when it unveiled its bigger-screen 6 and 6 Plus phones in 2014, grabbing the attention of Asian customers, who had previously lapped up phablets from players such as Samsung Electronics (005930.KS).

"Apple has become a victim of their own success as the blockbuster iPhone 6 product cycle was hard to replicate as many customers are either buying an older, cheaper iPhone 6 or waiting for the iPhone 7," FBR Capitalhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png Markets analyst Daniel Ives said.

China, the company'shttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png fastest-growing market, may also have weighed on first-quarter results, as a slowdown in the country's economy forced consumers to tighten their purse strings.

Japan steel exports slump to 4-yr low in 2015

TOKYO, Jan 25:  
Japan's steel exports last year fell to their lowest since 2011, dented by a surge in shipments from China.
Steelmakers around the world are grappling with the fallout of massive exports of cheap steel from China, with producers there turning overseas as local appetite wavers due to the country's slowing economy.
Steel exports by Japan, the world's second-biggest steel producer, dropped 1 percent to 41.27 million tonnes last year, marking a second annual decline and hitting the lowest since 2011, preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday. In 2011, output was disrupted after parts of the country were devastated by an earthquake and tsunami.
Exports from Japan may fall further in 2016 as steel prices remain at multi-year lows, crimping export margins, while the recent surge in the yen against the U.S. dollar makes Japanese goods more expensive in foreign markets.
Top Japanese steelmakers, which export more than 40 percent of their output, have been squeezed hard by Chinese steel manufacturers using surplus output to boost exports.
Reflecting soft demand at home, China's steel exports surged by nearly a fifth last year to a record 112.4 million tonnes, fuelling a plunge in steel prices to 12-year lows and driving scores of countries to slap anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel, as well as sparking mill closures.
China makes half the world's 1.6 billion tonnes of steel and has overcapacity of about 400 million tonnes.

As China cuts green car subsidies, automakers' electric dreams differ

Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:00am EST
China will maintain plans to gradually phase out subsidies for green energy vehicles until they are fully eliminated in 2021 and allow the market to determine the direction of green car development, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said on Saturday.

But auto executives speaking alongside Lou at an industry conference in Beijing laid out differing visions as to which technology the market will favor: Tesla-style pure electrics or plug-in hybrid cars currently favored by Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) and others.

Green car sales more than quadrupled in 2015 with the market finally taking off after years of subsidies and preferential government policies, leading China to surpass the United States to become the world's largest market for electric cars.

The government sees new energy vehicles, a catch-all for pure electric, hybrid and fuel cell cars, as a means for China's auto industry to catch up to foreign competition while also combating pollution that chokes many urban areas.

Lou reiterated plans to cut subsidies by 20 percent over the next two years and 40 percent by 2019-2020, eliminating them altogether after 2021 so that the industry does not grow dependent on them.

Instead, Lou said China should pursue market-based policies. He praised California's emissions policy, under which Tesla can generate environmental credits from its emissions-free vehicles and then sell the credits to other companies, for playing a critical role in the success of the Silicon Valley carmaker.

This was an example to learn from, he said. China has yet to institute a similar system.

"Credithttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png trading is the most effective way to ensure government neutrality on the technology's development. The market should be able to choose the technical route," said Lou.

Other automakers like Beijing Automotive Group [BEJINS.UL] and start-up electric maker NextEV also praised pure electric car maker Tesla as a model for development.

---- Chairman Wang Chuanfu of BYD, which makes China's best-selling plug-in hybrid, said he expects buses to achieve full electrification, with commercial vehicles being completely electrified within the decade and passenger cars being fully converted by 2030.
We end for the day with the dying EUSSR. France and Greece return to continental, European socialist normality. Everyone out comrade. Euros anyone? Brexit looks better with each passing day.

French Taxi, Aviation Strikes Threaten Travel Chaos Tuesday

January 25, 2016 — 12:33 PM GMT Updated on January 25, 2016 — 3:04 PM GMT
Travel across France threatens to be difficult Tuesday as taxi drivers and air traffic controllers join a strike called by three major unions representing France’s 5 million civil servants.

France’s civil aviation authority asked airlines to cut their flights by 20 percent Tuesday as two unions representing air traffic controllers called for a 24-hour strike ending Wednesday morning to demand higher pay and pensions.

Air France says it will guarantee all long-haul flights tomorrow as well as 80 percent of short- and medium-haul flights, though it warned that last minute cancellations can’t be excluded. It’s offering customers with tickets to fly tomorrow to postpone for later this week without cost. Lufthansa is canceling 10 flights between Germany and France

Taxis plan to clog access to airports near Paris, Toulouse, Marseille and Bordeaux, as well as at Porte Maillot on the western edge of the capital, as part of a continued protest against the proliferation of car services such as Uber. CGT Taxis issued a statement accusing the government of trying to “kill the profession with savage deregulation.” The union says 60,000 taxi jobs are at risk.  

----The largest strike Tuesday involves a call by the CGT, Force Ouvriere, and Sud for workers in schools, hospitals and local government to stay off work.

They are demanding a return to automatic pay increases that were interrupted in 2010, as well as an end to planned reforms of France’s health care system and local government. “Created in an environment of austerity, they threaten to destroy public jobs, perturb public services and worsen the conditions of public workers,” FO said in a statement.

EU Slows Down on Greece Aid as Rule Compliance Trumps Urgency

January 25, 2016 — 11:00 PM GMT
Greece’s next bite of bailout money may turn into a movable feast if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can’t convince euro-area authorities he’s making good on his promises.

“Everyone got used to the fact the reviews take longer,” Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said in an interview on Friday. “Everyone’s prepared to demand that agreements are implemented at 100 percent.”

European governments won’t rush through additional disbursements until Tsipras delivers on pledges to fix Greece’s pension system, update its labor markets and close fiscal gaps. A slow approach to resolving the nation’s financial needs has already pushed borrowing costs to levels not seen since last August and runs the risk of renewing last year’s conflict that nearly ended Greece’s membership in the euro area.

Greece may get 4 billion euros ($4 billion) or more once the nation’s creditors complete a review of the most recent bailout, according to a euro-area official who asked not to be named because talks are ongoing. If Greece fails to unlock more funding it may face a cash crunch by the middle of the year.

The first evaluation of Greece’s 86 billion-euro aid program that was inked in August, which was supposed to conclude in February or early March, is now sitting in limbo. In an interview published Monday, ESM chief Klaus Regling told Le Figaro he thought the assessment could be “concluded before Easter” -- without specifying whether he meant this year’s March 27 celebration in Rome or the Greek Orthodox Church’s May 1 observance.

Greek government notes are the worst performing of all sovereign securities tracked by Bloomberg’s World Bond Indexes this year, amid doubts over the government’s ability to push through painful economic overhauls demanded by creditors. Greek stocks have dropped more than 15 percent, amid a succession of protests by farmers, doctors, lawyers, pharmacists and other independent professionals against the government’s pension reform proposals. 

Thousands of tractors have been blocking Greece’s motorways, bringing traffic to a halt, while the government said Monday that it will amend some of its proposed hikes to mandatory pension contributions, in an effort to stem social backlash.

The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.

Jesse Livermore.

At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 36.12 Moz, Eligible 120.05 Moz, Total 156.18 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Below, migrant asylum Japanese style. Germans, Poles, Hungarians, Slovakians Czechs and others can only look on longingly in envy and anger. No Merkel Madness on the other side of the world.

Asylum seekers in Japan reach record 7,586 in 2015; 27 accepted

Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:05am EST
A record 7,586 people sought asylum in Japan in 2015, a 52 percent increase, while just 27 people applying for asylum were approved, government data showed on Saturday.
Those accepted did not necessarily come from those who arrived last year. Some of them may have been waiting for years.
Japan prides itself on its homogeneity and runs the tightest refugee recognition system among industrialized economies. It accepted just 11 refugees in 2014, when 5,000 applied.
In the same year, EU member countries gave protection status, which includes refugee status and authorization to stay for humanitarian reasons, to about 185,000 asylum seekers.
Asylum seekers from Nepal topped the list of those arriving in 2015, with 1,768 people, or 23 percent of the total. Another 969 people came from Indonesia and 926 from Turkey, according to the preliminary datahttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png from the Justice Ministry.
Of the 27 people approved in 2015, six are from Afghanistan and three from Syria.
Asylum applicationshttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png have risen more than six-fold since 2010, when legal changes gave re-applicants the right to work as their claims were judged.
The data were reported as Japan tiptoes into a debate over whether to open its doors wider to immigration, to cope with its shrinking, ageing population.


They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.

Jesse Livermore.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Applied Graphene Materials raises £8.5m in shares sale and links with biggest paint maker in US

09:57, 25 Jan 2016 09:57, 25 Jan 2016
Directors of pioneering technology firm Applied Graphene Materials are to tell shareholders at its AGM how it is collaborating with the largest paint producer in the US.
The Redcar business, which manufactures specialty graphene materials, holds its AGM at the Wilton Centre tomorrow, where chairman Bryan Dobson will provide an update on the firm’s financial year.
Amongst key highlights, the firm will tell shareholders how two new collaborations have been set up and how a shares sale raised £8.5m, allowing the firm to ramp up production capacity.
Mr Dobson’s statement, published in advance on the AIM, states: “The Board remains pleased with the progress that the Group is making over the course of the current financial year.
“The successful conclusion of the placing and open offer, raising approximately £8.5m, has allowed the Group to continue to plan for a significant increase in its production capacity and to fund customer collaborations and joint development activity as the business pursues production orders.
“The fundraising followed a year of good progress in developing our commercial pipeline, including collaborations with a number of blue chip international partners.
----However, the firm is now collaborating with Sherwin-Williams Protective & Marine Coatings, the biggest paint maker in the US, and Cambridge-based TWI Ltd, a world leader in materials and corrosion management, to develop graphene-based anti-corrosive coatings.
Innovate UK is co-funding the collaboration.
Mr Dobson’s statement concludes: “Corrosion is estimated to cost the British economy £10bn a year, primarily affecting major infrastructure sectors such as construction, petrochemicals and transport.
“Organic coatings loaded with hazardous or environmentally harmful metals such as zinc and chromates are commonly used to protect such structures and so it is desirable to find improved and sustainable alternative solutions.
“Graphene has been identified as an alternative anti-corrosive additive and the collaboration aims to develop the use of graphene in anti-corrosive coatings. The corrosion resistance of a coating is not a single property but a summation of many properties such as barrier resistance, electrochemical behaviour, mechanical strength and resistance to damage.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: +18 Down. NASDAQ: +110 Down. SP500: +36 Down. 

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