Monday, 4 January 2016

2016 – $20 Oil?

Baltic Dry Index. 478       Brent Crude 38.19

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

You can never plan the future by the past.

Edmund Burke. Statesman.

We open with a look at the oil sector. The great global oil glut looks set to surge again in 2016. Barring a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a fracking disaster looms into sight.  Twenty dollar oil in 2016? Short Scotland!

The future will be better tomorrow.

Dan Quayle. Politician.

Man who nailed 2015 oil plunge is predicting a dismal 2016

Published: Dec 31, 2015 2:14 p.m. ET
As oil-battered investors say farewell to 2015, Tom Kloza, founder and global head of energy analysis at data firm Oil Price Information Service, or OPIS, is offering a pretty dour outlook for crude-oil prices in 2016. Kloza is predicting that West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange CLG6, +1.28%  will hit $32 a barrel.

On Thursday, the final day of the trading year for markets, WTI crude prices were at $37.76, or 3.6% higher. But over the longer term, Nymex-traded oil, the U.S. benchmark, has lost 30% of its value in 2015, while Brent crude, its European counterpart LCOG6, +3.13%  fell 34%.

Investors might want to take heed of Kloza’s prognostication. After all, early last year he made a spot on call that crude prices would hit $35 a barrel in 2015.

The oil expert’s view this time is tied to the belief that U.S. shale producers won’t significantly pump the brakes much in their production levels in the new year. So far, shale production hasn’t substantially abated.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose a greater-than-expected 2.6 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 25.

“I think next year is very similar to this year and I think there’s a good chance oil is going back to numbers reached back in December 2008,” Kloza told MarketWatch in an interview, echoing comments he made earlier on CNBC, in the video attached:

Russian Oil Output Hits Post-Soviet Record Amid Lower Price

January 2, 2016 — 9:27 AM GMT Updated on January 2, 2016 — 3:43 PM GMT
Russia’s crude output set another post-Soviet record in December, according to Energy Ministry data, as the nation’s producers seek to withstand the slump in oil prices.

The country’s crude and gas condensate production increased to 10.825 million barrels a day last month, beating the previous record set in November by 0.4 percent, Bloomberg calculations based on the data show. Output for the year increased 1.4 percent compared with 2014, exceeding 534 million metric tons, or almost 10.726 million barrels a day, according to the preliminary information e-mailed from Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.

Russian crude producers have been setting post-Soviet records even amid plunging prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to foreign financing and technology. The companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some aging fields in West Siberia and brought a few mid-sized new projects on line.

First U.S. Oil Export Leaves Port; Marks End to 40-Year Ban

December 31, 2015 — 10:26 PM GMT Updated on January 1, 2016 — 12:58 PM GMT
The first U.S. shipment of crude oil to an overseas buyer departed a Texas port on Thursday, just weeks after a 40-year ban on most such exports was lifted.

The Theo T tanker has left NuStar Energy LP’s dockside facility in Corpus Christi, Texas, along the western shore of the Gulf of Mexico, Mary Rose Brown, a spokeswoman for NuStar, said in an e-mail. The ship is carrying a cargo of oil and condensate to Italy from ConocoPhillips’s wells in south Texas that was sold to Swiss trading house Vitol Group.

A campaign by oil explorers including Continental Resources Inc., Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. to lift the 1970s-era export prohibition culminated in a Dec. 18 congressional decision to end the ban.

Vitol, which owns stakes in refineries from northern Europe to Australia, has a second cargo of U.S.-sourced crude scheduled to depart a Houston port within days.

Iran says boosting oil exports depends on future demand

Sun Jan 3, 2016 3:27am EST
A rise in Iran's crude oil exports once sanctions against it are lifted depends on future global oil demand and that should not further weaken oil prices, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying.
Oil prices are likely to come under further pressure this year, when international sanctions on Iran are due to be removed under a nuclear deal reached in July. Brent crude LCOc1 settled at $37.28 a barrel on Thursday.
Iran has repeatedly said it plans to raise oil output by 500,000 barrels per day post sanctions, and another 500,000 bpd shortly after that, to reclaim its position as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer.

In other news, a wobbly start to 2016.

Asia shares, currencies tumble; oil jumps at start of 2016

Sun Jan 3, 2016 9:55pm EST
Asian shares and currencies fell on Monday on the first day of trading in 2016 after China factory activity contracted and the yuan weakened, while oil prices jumped as much as 3 percent on rising tensions in the Middle East.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.7 percent, after shedding nearly 12 percent in 2015 as China's cooling economy took a toll on its trade-reliant Asian neighbors and global commodity prices.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 2.6 percent to 2-1/2-month lows, while mainland China shares .SSEC tumbled more than 4 percent.

---- Adding to worries about China, its central bank fixed the yuan at a 4-1/2-year low, while manufacturing surveys showed any hopes for a recovery in that sector were premature.

"While fiscal support has helped slow the rate of economic deceleration, China needs to balance the need for stimulus with the reality of the unsustainable buildup in debt. This will continue to limit the scope for stimulus, and suggests further economic deceleration in 2016," said BlackRock CIO Ross Koesterich in a note to clients.

China factories struggle as weak exports drag industry in Asia

Sun Jan 3, 2016 9:50pm EST
China's factory activity shrank for a 10th straight month in December as surveys across Asia showed industry struggling with slack demand even as the policy cupboard is looking increasingly bare of fresh stimulus.

Uncertainty over the economic outlook was exacerbated by a flare up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, that has sent investors scurrying from stocks to safe havens such as the Japanese yen.

---- The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 48.2 in December, below market forecasts of 49.0 and down from November's 48.6.

That was the lowest reading since September and well below the 50-point level which demarcates contraction from expansion. It followed a fractional increase in the official PMI to 49.7.

There was a faint stirring of hope as PMIs in South Korea and Taiwan both edged above the 50 mark, though more thanks to a pick up in domestic demand than any revival in exports.

Weighed down by weak demand at home and abroad, factory overcapacity and cooling investment, China is expected to post its weakest economic growth in 25 years in 2015, with the rate of expansion slipping to around 7 percent from 7.3 percent in 2014.

I never think of the future. It comes soon enough.

Albert Einstein. Mathematician.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 40.30 Moz, Eligible 120.37 Moz, Total 160.67 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today a look at how 2015 turned out for stocks. And stocks were the target of the world’s central bank’s all year, still desperately trying to offset the near crash of the global financial system last decade.  Will the Fed really try to raise their key interest rate three times in 2016? If so, what will that do to global stocks?
When the operations of capitalism come to resemble those of the casino, ill fortune will be the lot of the many.
John Maynard Keynes.

Stocks close lower; worst year for S&P, Dow since 2008

31 Dec 2015

U.S.stocks closed lower in light volume trade Thursday, the last day of 2015, despite some stabilization in oil prices.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average both ended lower for the year, their worst since 2008. The Nasdaq composite closed up more than 5.5 percent for the year helped by outperformance in biotech stocks and major tech names, except Apple. The iPhone maker's stock turned in its first negative year since 2008.

The Russell 2000 and Dow transports also had their worst year since 2008.
Selling accelerated into the close Thursday, with the Dow closing about 180 points lower. The Nasdaq composite fell more than 1 percent as Apple declined nearly 2 percent.
The S&P 500 ended nearly 1 percent lower on the day, with energy the only sector clinging to slight gains as oil settled higher, but remaining near multi-year lows. Energy was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, falling more than 20 percent.

Turbulent FTSE in worst year since 2011

Market volatility wipes £80bn off country’s top firms

Britain's leading companies will emerge from 2015 battered and bruised, with more than £80bn wiped off their value, following the FTSE 100’s worst year since 2011.
Despite the high points of early 2015, when the blue chip index partied like it was 1999, turbulence dominated the later half of the year, as the commodities price rout claimed a number of victims. The mining-heavy index tumbled 323.77 points over the year - or 4.93pc - to close at 6,242.32, lagging behind its European peers, who made gains despite a tumultuous 12 months.
----It was not a year for faint hearted investors. In April, the index broke through its dotcom bubble peak to touch 7,103.98, before the unprecedented collapse in Chinese shares, following the surprise devaluation of the yuan, caused market mayhem worldwide, and left UK-listed companies nursing hefty losses.

The onset of a commodities price rout resulted in a savage summer for the blue-chip index. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading down 25pc to $4,731 per tonne as markets closed – its biggest annual loss in seven years. Meanwhile, nickel slumped 42pc and zinc also lost around a quarter of its value amid fears of weak demand from the world’s biggest metals consumer, China.

Creditors are a superstitious sect, great observers of set days and times.

Benjamin Franklin.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Europe's Turbine Manufacturers Doubling in Record Year for Wind

December 31, 2015 — 5:01 AM GMT
Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA and Nordex SE, Europe’s three publicly traded wind-turbine makers, all doubled in value in 2015 after record industry installations for the year.
With one trading day left in 2015, Nordex is up 118 percent from the end of last year. Vestas climbed 114 percent and Gamesa posted a 111 percent increase.
Turbine makers are benefiting from surging demand for clean energy. Global wind-power installations are expected to reach 63.7 gigawatts this year, up 30 percent from 2014, the previous record, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. New capacity next year will be comparable, with Brazil, the U.S. and India posting the biggest gains in terms of megawatts added, offsetting declines in China, Germany and Poland. 
“We’re expecting 2016 to be an equally good year,” said David Hostert, a wind analyst in London for New Energy Finance. “We believe the core markets in Europe already plateaued and new growth will come from elsewhere.”
Nordex, Vestas and Gamesa posted the second, third and fourth-biggest gains on the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index of 104 low-carbon energy companies, trailing only the German solar inverter manufacturer SMA Solar Technology AG.
Vestas, based in Denmark, and Spain’s Gamesa are also the fourth- and fifth-biggest risers in the Stoxx 600 Index of European companies, which doesn’t include Germany’s Nordex. 
In percentage terms, those gains are still smaller than in 2013 when the three manufacturers were rebounding from near-historic lows. Vestas rose fivefold in value that year, Gamesa quadrupled and Nordex tripled. Still, with this year’s gains, Gamesa is trading near its highest level since 2009; Vestas is at levels not seen since 2008 and Nordex’s shares are trading at prices last recorded in 2007.
The International Energy Agency says renewable energy will overtake coal as the largest source of electricity by the early 2030s. In 2014, clean power accounted for 85 percent of the increase in generation worldwide, and from 2015 through 2040, the 3,600 gigawatts of new renewable capacity will outstrip additions of all other forms of generation combined, the agency forecasts.

Results! Why man I’ve gotten a lot of results. I know several thousand things that don’t work.

Thomas Alva Edison.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: +18 Down. NASDAQ: +110 Down. SP500: +36 Down. 

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