Global Gloom Deepens.

Baltic Dry Index. 363 -06        Brent Crude 28.25

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.

It was something of a bad news Tuesday, but this being 2016 and not 2015, bad news is back to being bad news again. All news is good news is so last year. First the IEA came out with a warning on the global oil market about to “drown in over supply,” for more on that scroll down to Crooks Corner. Then the French run, morally challenged IMF warmed up today’s opening Davos gathering of the pompous, the preposterous, and the downright nasty, with  a downgrade to global growth.

Davos will now have more on its plate than just trying to figure out who are the 62 super billionaires who control more wealth than the lowest 3.5 billion humans on the planet. With the majority of corporates attending Davos spending between $250,000 to $500,000 for the privilege of getting an invite to the ultimate 4 day junket in the Swizz snow, at least according to the BBC World Service, it seems an awfully high price to pay just to hear the likes of Cameron, Lagarde, Juncker, Kerry, Trudeau, and Bono sounding off.

"On the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”

George Orwell.

Hong Kong stocks hit 3½-year low; Japan nears bear market

Published: Jan 19, 2016 11:28 p.m. ET

Asian markets continue tailspin amid oil glut, China concerns

Hong Kong stocks hit a three-and a-half low while Japan’s Nikkei fell to more than 20% below its most recent high, as this year’s selloff in regional stocks resumed on Wednesday.

Fresh lows in the region came amid another drop in oil prices that offset hopes Beijing will roll out stimulus to boost China’s slowing economy and depressed markets.

The Hang Seng Index HSI, -4.05%   fell 3.7% to 18920.8. That put it below 19,000 for the first time since July 2012.

The Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -3.09%   was down 2.2% to 16681.33, off 21% from its recent closing high in June. Japan’s Nikkei is on track to close in bear-market territory, defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak.

The South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -2.77%   fell 2.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.80%   was down 0.14%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -1.31%   fell 1% to 4852.2, down 19% from its recent high in April.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar fell to its weakest level since 2007 — HK$7.8228 against the U.S. dollar.

Oil prices slipped further below $30 a barrel in the Asian trading morning. Traders and analysts say investors were also nervously watching China, where authorities guided the yuan stronger against the U.S. dollar earlier onshore, but have yet to announce major stimulus, such as a cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratios.

On Tuesday, China posted the weakest annual pace of growth in a quarter century, with a 6.9% expansion last year.

“No one really wants to step in to buy yet,” with oil dipping below $28 a barrel, said Robert Levine, sales trader at brokerage CLSA. “All the oil plays are getting hit.”

Brent crude oil was last down 0.8% at $28.52, giving up earlier gains. U.S. oil futures fell 3.3% at $28.46 a barrel overnight, the lowest level since September 2003. The Tuesday session in the U.S. was the first since sanctions were lifted against Iran, raising worries that it will increase its supply amid a flooded market.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-stocks-hit-312-year-low-japan-nears-bear-market-2016-01-19?dist=tcountdown

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.4% in Year of ‘Great Challenges’

January 19, 2016 — 10:00 AM GMT

The six-year-old global recovery is showing some rust.

The International Monetary Fund cut its world growth outlook, as the commodities slump and political gridlock push Brazil deeper into recession, plunging oil prices hobble Mideast crude producers, and the rising dollar curbs U.S. prospects.

The global economy will expand 3.4 percent this year, down from a projected 3.6 percent in October, the IMF said Tuesday in a quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook. The Washington-based fund also cut its forecast for growth in 2017 to 3.6 percent, down from 3.8 percent three months ago.

The fund’s forecast offers little solace amid a gloomy start to 2016 for financial markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stocks is off to its worst start to a year on record, as the plunge in oil prices and tightening U.S. monetary policy drive flight from riskier assets around the world.

----The IMF estimates the global economy grew 3.1 percent last year, the weakest pace since the 2009 recession. Growth in emerging markets and developing nations slowed for the fifth straight year.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/imf-trims-global-outlook-as-brazil-slump-oil-weigh-on-expansion

IMF Cuts South Africa's Economic Growth Forecast by Almost Half

January 19, 2016 — 10:00 AM GMT

The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth forecast for South Africa by almost half to less than 1 percent as commodity prices slump and global demand remains weak.

Gross domestic product in Africa’s most industrialized nation will probably expand 0.7 percent this year, compared with October’s estimate of 1.3 percent, the Washington-based lender said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday. The IMF cut its projection for 2017 by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8 percent.

South Africa’s economy is struggling to cope with a plunge in metal prices, fueled by a slowdown in its biggest export market, China. Barclays Africa Group Ltd. on Monday cut its 2016 GDP growth forecast for South Africa to 0.9 percent from 1.4 percent, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashed its projection by a full percentage point to 0.4 percent last week.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan is set to announce new growth forecasts in his budget speech next month. The government had projected expansion of 1.7 percent for this year.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/imf-cuts-south-africa-s-economic-growth-forecast-by-almost-half

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran

Exclusive: Situation worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Davos 9:00PM GMT 19 Jan 2016

 The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

"Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said.

"It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. Debt jubilees have been going on for 5,000 years, as far back as the Sumerians."

The next task awaiting the global authorities is how to manage debt write-offs - and therefore a massive reordering of winners and losers in society - without setting off a political storm.

More

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

 

The Charts That Tell You Everything About Davos

January 19, 2016 — 11:01 PM GMT

The great and the good of the global economy will start schmoozing in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday. 

Those attending the World Economic Forum's 46th annual meeting will ponder the urgent issues of the day (this year's theme is "The Fourth Industrial Revolution"), hash out deals, and fight to get into the best cocktail parties.

In between celebrity sightings, what everyone will really be talking about are the big risks they're going to have to deal with when they get home.

• ----Government rock star: Justin Trudeau
• Business rock star: Mary Barra
• Economic rock star: Christine Lagarde
• Banking rock star: Tidjane Thiam
• Hollywood rock star: Leonardo DiCaprio
• Robot rock star: HUBO
• Rock star denier: will.i.am*
• Actual rock star: Bono

*Listed in program as William Adams, founder of the I.Am.Angel Foundation. All are scheduled to attend.

• ----Switzerland has deployed a total of 4,500 military and police, about 5 percent of them full-time soldiers.
• Security includes two surface-to-air missile systems.
• About 100 of the 2,500 participants get special security coverage.
• Attendees will be hemmed in by 46 kilometers of fences, 10 percent more than a year ago.
• Zurich Airport will contend with about 1,000 additional plane and helicopter takeoffs and landings during the meeting.

More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/davos-2016-the-charts-that-say-world-economic-forum-

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations. 1776.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 36.19 Moz, Eligible 120.27 Moz, Total 156.46 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Oil’s had it, says the Paris based International Energy Agency. The global oil market is about to “drown in oversupply.” Short Scotland, Canada, Mexico, Nigeria, Venezuela, and of course Brazil and American frackers. And Iran hasn’t produced or sold one extra barrel yet.

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil

January 19, 2016 — 9:00 AM GMT

Global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” sending prices even lower as demand growth slows and Iran revives exports with the end of sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA trimmed 2016 estimates for global oil demand as China’s economic expansion weakens and raised forecasts for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. While non-OPEC supply is set to drop 600,000 barrels a day in 2016, Iran’s comeback could fill that gap by the middle of the year. As a result, world markets may be left with a surplus of 1.5 million barrels a day in the first half.

“While the pace of stock-building eases in the second half of the year as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” said the Paris-based adviser to industrialized economies. Prices “could go lower.”

Oil sank to a 12-year low of less than $28 a barrel in London on Monday as the removal of international sanctions over the weekend freed Iran to revive crude exports, threatening to swell a glut created by fellow OPEC members and U.S. shale drillers. Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter, signaled again on Sunday it won’t relent in its strategy to preserve market share even as prices crash.

Iran Growth

Iran could be the only source of supply growth in OPEC this year as a surge in Iraq fizzles out, the IEA said. International sanctions, including those on its oil sector, were lifted on Jan. 16 as Iran met the terms of an agreement to curb its nuclear development program.

The Persian Gulf exporter could add 300,000 barrels a day by the end of the first quarter and 600,000 barrels a day by the middle of the year, the IEA said. While that’s below official ministry plans to add 1 million a day by mid-year, it could still be enough to pressure prices further, the agency predicted. The country pumped at a 3 1/2-year high of 2.91 million barrels a day in December, according to the report.

Global oil demand growth slipped to a one-year low in the fourth quarter, from close to a five-year high in the third, amid mild winter temperatures and economic weakness in commodity producers. Consumption growth will slow this year to 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, from 1.7 million a day in 2015, according to the report, averaging 95.7 million barrels a day.
More

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/iea-says-oil-rout-could-deepen-as-market-drowns-in-oversupply

The rich man in his castle,
The poor man at his gate,
Nixon made them high and lowly,
And disordered their estate.

With apologies to All Things Bright and Beautiful.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Solar Power Plant In Oil-Rich Abu Dhabi Beats Expectations — Again

January 17th, 2016 by Tina Casey
When one of the world’s largest concentrating solar power plants rose from the desert sands in the Western Region of the Abu Dhabi Emirate back in 2013, more than a few heads exploded. Aside from being the site of much of the Emirate’s oil and gas reserves, the western desert is a harsh environment for massive, precisely engineered renewable energy facilities, and concentrating solar technology still has yet to prove its competitiveness in the general market. However, in its first year of operation, the so-named Shams 1 plant beat expectations by a wide margin, and its second year figures are also better than predicted.

So… does concentrating solar power (CSP) have a future? CleanTechnica had an opportunity to tour the plant* and speak with Abdulaziz Al Obaidli, General Manager of the Shams Power Company, who gave us some insights into the keys to its success, and the prospects for future CSP development.

The Shams 1 Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Shams 1 is a 100 megawatt facility with 258,048 mirrors arranged in parabolic troughs covering 2.5 square kilometers. It’s the only plant of its kind in the world completely surrounded by a solid wall…

…and that’s a critical difference between Shams 1 and other concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. As explained by Al Obaidli, the wall provides a significant measure of protection from desert wind and sandstorms. Storm-grade winds can take out large sections of equipment in a conventional CSP plant, but according to Al Obaidli, one of the strongest storms in recent memory passed through last year and it only damaged 20 out of the 258,048 mirrors.

The parabolic troughs themselves also include design features that prevent wind damage. On just a few minutes’ notice they can be rotated into a “safety” position, and then locked in place.

CleanTechnica has been following the solar facility since it first cranked up operations back in 2013. In January 2015, we summed up the figures for 2014, the first full recorded year of operation:

The largest concentrated solar power project in the Middle East, Shams 1, has performed better than expected, the Shams Power Company has reported.
[snip]
The company had expected to generate about 193,000 MWh electricity in 2014 but managed to generate just under 215,000 MWh. This translates into an increase of 12% over the expected generation…

In a February 2015 followup piece, CleanTechnica toured the facility as a guest of Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s government-supported cleantech corporation, taking note of the high winds and water scarcity issues.

During our new visit on January 16, 2016, Al Obaidli gave our tour group a rundown on the figures for 2015, and they confirm that the first-year achievement was no fluke. Though the solar plant’s “nameplate” capacity is 100 megawatts, in peak summer days during 2015, it often climbed up to its maximum of 125 megawatts.

More

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/17/solar-power-plant-in-oil-rich-abu-dhabi-beats-expectations/

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: +18 Down. NASDAQ: +110 Down. SP500: +36 Down.