Baltic
Dry Index. 325 - 12 Brent
Crude 34.42
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
In a
time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
George
Orwell.
It’s desperation time in our growing global
recession. With nothing working to plan, or as explained by our increasingly
irrelevant central banksters, it was voodoo time in Tokyo today, while in the
commodities markets, even rumours of Russia talking to OPEC about rigging oil
production to get the price higher, was only good for a measly two dollar rally.
The reason, few really believe a production cut will work, Iran will just take
up their market share, and more technically, the oil shorts were already squeezed
out in last week’s bull raid. With the Baltic Dry Index signalling shipping is
all but going out of business, desperate times indeed.
Asian Stocks Rally as BOJ Surprise Sinks Yen; Crude Oil Advances
January 28, 2016 — 11:42 PM GMT Updated on January 29, 2016 — 5:18 AM
GMT
Asian shares rose to a two-week high and the yen weakened as the Bank of
Japan unexpectedly adopted negative interest rates to support the region’s
second-largest economy. Crude oil rallied after Russia’s energy minister said
OPEC may meet to discuss output cuts.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for a third day as Chinese equities
trimmed their biggest monthly drop since 2008. Japanese bonds rallied after the
central bank decision, pushing yields to record lows, and the yen declined
against all of its major counterparts. Energy stocks surged as U.S. crude
extended its advance toward $34 a barrel. The ringgit climbed to a three-month
high as the rebound in oil brightened prospects for Malaysia.
A January stocks selloff that erased some $7 trillion of market value
globally abated over the past week as central banks signaled they may be
prepared to act in order to prevent further turmoil. Friday’s rate decision by
the Bank of Japan comes after the European Central Bank indicated it could
boost stimulus as soon as March, while bets the Federal Reserve will hike
borrowing costs again this quarter have dropped. The People’s Bank of China
added a record amount of funds to its banking system this week via money-market
operations.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/asian-shares-set-for-gains-as-horror-month-ends-with-boj-update
These earnings suggest we
may be headed for recession
Published: Jan 28, 2016 4:09 p.m. ET
Slowdown in China and falling oil prices lead to corporate sales recession
Another day, another flurry of gloomy earnings reports.
Thursday was the busiest of the current season so far, and while there
were some bright spots, it mostly continued the trend of widespread sales
misses and lowered guidance for the rest of the year.
A wide range of companies have missed sales forecasts this week, weighed
down by the now familiar list of factors that include the strong dollar, the
slowdown in China and the weakness in commodities. There is also growing
concern that the Federal Reserve may have pulled the trigger on interest-rate
hikes too early.
As per-share earnings are more easily manipulated through such actions as
share buybacks, the sales number is a key metric in understanding underlying
performance. And the stream of sales misses has analysts using the R
word—recession, either confined to the industrial sector or even applied to the
broader economy.
Read: Fears
of recession in industrial sector grow as pessimism deepens
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-earnings-suggest-we-may-be-headed-for-recession-2016-01-28?dist=lbeforebell
Oil Trade
Slows as Storage Glut Snares Tankers in Bottlenecks
January 28,
2016 — 10:24 AM GMT
The world’s biggest oil companies are asking tanker operators to slow
down delivery of crude amid an ever-expanding supply glut on land, Europe’s
largest owner of supertankers said.
Tankers hauling 2 million-barrel cargoes are delivering them at speeds
of about 13 knots, compared with a maximum of 15, Paddy Rodgers, chief
executive officer of Antwerp, Belgium-based Euronav NV, said in an interview in
London on Thursday. The slower speeds might result in a voyage that would
normally take 40 days instead lasting 48. Shore-based supplies are getting so
big that it’s probable the need for storage at sea may soon grow, he said.
The market is contending with a glut of oil that’s not going away
because OPEC is insisting it didn’t create the excess and won’t tackle it
alone. Countries within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development have a near-record of almost 3 billion barrels of oil stockpiled,
the International Energy Agency estimates.
“I’ve not seen a supply-side market like it in terms of the production
of oil,” said Rodgers, a lawyer who joined Euronav two decades ago and is based
in London, after an earlier interview with Bloomberg Television. His company’s
VLCCs earned $55,000 a day last year, double what they made in 2014, thanks in
part to fuel prices that plunged along with crude, he said.
More
Next, will the oil contango be
enough to save sinking Glencore? Probably not is my guess, unless coal, copper and
zinc, have a miraculous recovery.
Glencore
Said to Store Oil in Ships Off Singapore Amid Contango
January 28,
2016 — 10:43 AM GMT
Glencore Plc is said to be storing oil on ships off the coast of
Singapore and Malaysia as a market structure known as contango allows traders
to benefit from holding on to supplies for sale later.
The commodities trader has at least 4 very large crude carriers, each of
which can hold about 2 million barrels, floating at sea off the nations’ coast
in Southeast Asia, people with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be
identified because the information is confidential. When a market is in
contango, prices for supplies today are lower than those in future months,
allowing traders with access to stored crude to potentially lock in a profit.
Charles Watenphul, a spokesman for Glencore, declined to comment.
While the oil market has been in contango since 2014, the premium
fetched by future cargoes increased to the highest since February last month.
The price difference between a Brent oil contract for immediate delivery and a
year forward was at about minus $7 a barrel on Thursday, twice the level in
mid-July.
To benefit from the contango, profits from selling a stored cargo must
exceed the cost of chartering ships to hold the supply. Euronav
NV, Europe’s largest owner of supertankers, would charge about 75 cents
per barrel each month for storing, its chief executive officer said on
Thursday. Brent crude for April costs about 80 cents more than for March, data
from ICE Futures Europe show. Traders incur additional expenses over and above
freight.
Storing crude on ships is close to being viable, Fearnleys A/S analyst
Jonathan Staubo said by phone on Thursday. The 3-month contango needs to be
about $2.70 to cover the cost of hiring ships and other expenses associated
with storing barrels at sea profitably, he said. That spread is currently at
about $2.50 for Brent.
Floating storage increases Glencore’s ability to supply cargoes on short
notice or load oil on smaller vessels for sale to Chinese refineries and other
Asian buyers who don’t have access to ports that can accommodate larger ships,
the people said.
Now back to
the real world dropping into depression. Goldman Sachs says
Brazil’s a “mess.”
“Call
it the Goldman Sachs test. If this is something Goldman would do to its
clients, don't do it."
Felix
Salmon.
Goldman
Sachs Calls Brazil a ‘Mess’ After Warning on Depression
January 27,
2016 — 7:36 PM GMT Updated on January 27, 2016 — 8:45 PM GMT
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the crisis in Brazil will get worse before
it gets better after the bank last year warned that Latin America’s largest
economy was being dragged into a depression.
“Brazil is a mess,” Alberto Ramos, the chief Latin America economist at
Goldman Sachs, said at an event organized by the Brazilian-American Chamber of
Commerce in New York on Wednesday. “Number 10 used to mean Pele. Now it’s
inflation rate, unemployment rate and the popularity rate of the
president."
President Dilma Rousseff’s popularity is among the lowest of any
Brazilian president on record as her party fights corruption allegations while
inflation above 10 percent erodes purchasing power and the sinking economy
sheds jobs. The nation is headed toward the deepest recession in a century amid
the threat of further credit-rating downgrades after Brazil was cut to junk
last year.
Brazil’s Presidency press office declined to comment on Goldman Sachs’s
remarks about the nation’s economic outlook.
The economic crisis is also being reflected in financial markets, where
the real is posting the biggest slide among the world’s major currencies over
the past 12 months and the Ibovespa is heading toward the worst start to a year
in two decades.
The
real sank 1.4 percent to 4.1099 on Wednesday after Brazil’s federal police
carried out search and arrest warrants in four cities to probe allegations of
money laundering related to a graft scheme at state oil company Petroleo
Brasileiro SA.
More
In EUSSR news.
German prices sank, while France got a lifeline from Iran. John Bull and Uncle
Scam looked on enviously.
German Prices
Drop Most in a Year, Highlighting ECB Challenge
January 28,
2016 — 1:00 PM GMT
German consumer prices fell at the fastest monthly pace in a year in
January as plummeting oil prices and weakness in emerging-market economies
postpone a long hoped-for pickup in inflation.
Prices declined 0.9 percent from December, the Federal Statistics Office
in Wiesbaden said on Thursday. That’s the largest decline since January 2015.
Even so, the annual inflation rate rose to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent the
prior month, in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
While slightly faster inflation may seem like welcome news to the
European Central Bank which is trying to fuel price pressures in the 19-nation
euro area, the acceleration masks a deteriorating outlook. With a drop in oil
prices of almost 25 percent since early December weighing on inflation
expectations, ECB President Mario Draghi has signaled more stimulus may come as
early as March.
Before today’s report, economists projected that euro-area inflation
accelerated to 0.4 percent in January from 0.2 percent the prior month.
Eurostat will release the figures on Friday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/german-prices-drop-most-in-a-year-highlighting-ecb-challenge
Iran Buys Airbus A380s, Seals Peugeot Deal at Paris Signing
January 28, 2016 — 4:19 PM GMT Updated on January 28, 2016 — 5:30 PM GMT
Iran placed an outline order 118 Airbus Group SE jetliners including 12
A380 superjumbos and secured an accord with PSA Peugeot Citroen for the
modernization of a Tehran car plant as President Hassan Rouhani’s post-sanctions
European shopping trip reached Paris.
The aircraft to be bought from Toulouse-based Airbus are worth almost
$27 billion at list prices, according to Bloomberg calculations. Assuming all
the planes are delivered, Rouhani signed off on deals valued at about 30
billion euros ($33 billion) in a ceremony at the Elysee Palace, the official
residence of his French counterpart Francois Hollande, a French official said.
Rouhani is in Europe after a landmark nuclear deal signed with world
powers entered force this month, lifting sanctions that have starved Iran’s
$400 billion economy of investment and consumer goods. Iran’s central bank
Governor Valiollah Seif said in an interview last week that the accord may
trigger $50 billion a year in foreign investment.
The Paris accords are comparable in value to transactions announced
earlier this week in Italy at the start of Rouhani’s first major foreign visit
since the lifting of trade barriers.
Among other deals announced in the French capital, Aeroports de Paris
and Bouygues SA will assist in the construction of a new terminal at Tehran’s
main Imam Khomeini hub and Vinci SA signed an outline agreement to run and
renovate airports at Mashhad and Ispahan.
----The purchase will allow Iran
to retire planes that it has kept in service because of the bar on it acquiring
new ones, contributing to one of the world’s poorest air-safety records. The
country’s passenger fleet averages 26.8 years of age, according to website
Planespotters.net.
Peugeot and long-time local ally Iran Khodro will invest 400 million
euros over five years upgrading their auto plant near Tehran in what the French
carmaker said is the first industrial accord signed by a Western company since
sanctions were removed.
The venture will produce 100,000 vehicles a year starting in late 2017, with
output eventually doubling. The revamped factory, which opened about 50 years
ago, will make Peugeot’s 208 hatchback, 301 sedan and 2008 crossover.
French container line CMA CGM SA also agreed to cooperate on shipping and
terminal development. Suez Environnement Co. will work on water-treatment
measures in Tehran, Sanofi signed an accord on health products and Total SA
inked a purchase accord for Iranian crude oil.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/iran-seals-airbus-peugeot-deals-as-rouhani-roadshow-hits-paris
"Finance
is the art of passing customer segregated funds from hypothecation to hypothecation
until it finally disappears."
At the Comex silver depositories
Thursday final figures were: Registered 36.32 Moz, Eligible 120.80 Moz, Total
157.12 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Don’t let on but our corporate crooks have never
been in worse financial shape. Just don’t let on to bubblevision. Our pin is
fast approaching.
The $29
Trillion Corporate Debt Hangover That Could Spark a Recession
January 28,
2016 — 12:00 AM GMT Updated on January 28, 2016 — 8:21 AM GMT
There’s been endless speculation in recent weeks about whether the U.S., and
the whole world for that matter, are about to sink into recession. Underpinning
much of the angst is an unprecedented $29 trillion corporate bond
binge
that has left many companies more indebted than ever.
Whether this debt overhang proves to be a catalyst for recession or not, one
thing is clear in talking to credit-market observers: It’s a problem that won’t
go away any time soon.
Strains are emerging in just about every corner of the global credit
market. Credit-rating downgrades account for the biggest chunk of ratings
actions since 2009; corporate leverage is at a 12-year high; and perhaps most
worrisome, growing numbers of companies -- one third globally -- are failing to
generate high enough returns on investments to cover their cost of funding.
Pooled together into a single snapshot, the data points show how the
seven-year-old global growth model based on cheap credit from central banks is
running out of steam.
“We’ve never been in a cycle quite like this,” said Bonnie Baha, a money
manager at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles, which oversees $80 billion. “It’s
setting up for an unhappy turn.”
While not as pronounced as the rout in global equity markets, losses are
beginning to pile up in the bond market too. The average spread over benchmark
government yields for highly rated debt has widened to 1.83 percentage points,
the most in three years, from 1.18 percentage points in March, according to
Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Investors lost 0.2 percent on global
corporate bonds in 2015, snapping a string of annual gains that averaged 7.9
percent over the previous six years, the data show.
Debt at global companies rated by Standard & Poor’s reached three
times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in 2015, the
highest in data going back to 2003 and up from 2.8 times last year, according
to the ratings company. Total debt at listed companies in China, the world’s
second-largest economy, has climbed to the highest level in three years,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Worsening debt profiles contributed to S&P downgrading
863 corporate issuers last year, the most since 2009. More than a third of
commodity and energy companies have ratings with negative outlooks or are on
credit watch with negative implications, S&P said. Almost 6 percent of U.S.
corporate bonds were downgraded through the third quarter, the largest
proportion since 2009, according to Fitch Ratings.
Much of the cheap credit accumulated by companies was spent on a $3.8
trillion M&A binge, and to fund share buybacks and dividend payments. While
that tends to push up share prices in the short term, bond investors would
rather see that money spent on strengthening the business in the long term.
More
One
of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, is: "Do you maintain strict
integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals
and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of
money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public
revenue?"
Probably
why there a no Quakers on Wall Street or in the City of London.
Solar
& Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable
cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century
onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?
Solar panel costs predicted to fall 10% a year
Climate
Home: Power from the sun could supply 20% of energy worldwide by 2027 on current
technology trends, say UK researchers
Tuesday 26 January 2016 15.00 GMT
Solar power
costs are tumbling so fast the technology is likely to fast outstrip mainstream
energy forecasts.
That is the conclusion of Oxford University researchers, based on a new
forecasting model
published
in
Research Policy.
Since the 1980s, panels to generate electricity from sunshine have got 10%
cheaper each year. That is likely to continue, the study said, putting solar on
course to meet 20% of global energy needs by 2027.
By contrast, even in its “high renewable” scenario, the International
Energy Agency assumes
solar panels will generate just 16% of electricity in 2050. Its widely cited
future energy scenarios in previous years failed to predict solar’s rapid
growth.
Mathematics professor Doyne Farmer, who co-wrote the paper, said the
research could help to shape clean energy policy.
“Sceptics have claimed that solar PV cannot be ramped up quickly enough to
play a significant role in combatting global warming,” he said.
“In a context where limited resources for technology investment constrain
policy makers to focus on a few technologies… the ability to have improved
forecasts and know how accurate they are should prove particularly useful.”
Farmer’s model, jointly developed with economist Francois Lafond, draws on
historical data from 53 different technologies.
“We put ourselves in the past, pretended we didn’t know the future, and used
a simple method to forecast the costs of the technologies,” Farmer explained.
The research was supported by the European Commission and US Department of
Solar Energy Technologies Office.
It comes as India and France are
championing a solar
alliance to scale up the technology worldwide, boosting energy access and curbing
greenhouse gas emissions.
More
Another weekend. What can possibly go wrong? Have a great weekend
everyone. US politics starts in earnest next week.
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of
Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: +18 Down. NASDAQ:
+110 Down. SP500: +36 Down.