Monday, 23 March 2015

Greece – In Or Out Week.



Baltic Dry Index. 591 +07     Brent Crude 54.88

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."

Antony C. Sutton

It is do or die week for Greece in the dying EUSSR. And it’s Germany that gets to decide if it’s to be do or die. Right now Germany seems to be pushing for “Grexident,” which is probably best in Greece’s long term interests, but few in Greece see any short term gain in exiting the euro. They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t stay in the euro, so getting out from being a debt slave to Merkel et al, makes the greater sense. Default, devalue, reform, recover. But in increasingly fractious Europe, is the EU viable at all?

Greece Faces Decisive Week as Tsipras Is Set to Meet Merkel

10:00 PM GMT March 22, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is set to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the second time in five days on Monday, at the start of a week that may prove decisive for Greece’s future in the euro area. 

The meeting in Berlin with the leader of the biggest contributor to Greece’s stalled 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout is a precursor to make-or-break decisions Tsipras faces as his country’s financial predicament becomes ever more perilous. His government needs to spell out economic measures it plans to undertake as early as this week to unlock long-withheld aid payments that will keep the country afloat.

“I hope there’ll be a U-turn on policies in Athens, but I maintain my view that if not, the Greek economy will collapse and they’ll slip out of the euro zone into chaos,” said Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit AG. “The Greek government ought to recognize that this is ‘endgame stuff.’’

Locked out of capital markets and with its coffers running dry, Greece is scraping the bottom of the barrel to pay pensions and salaries amid signs that it could run out of money by early next month. European leaders, including Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pressed Tsipras at a March 19 meeting in Brussels to make good on a February accord and ‘‘present a full list of specific reforms’’ in the coming days before any further aid can be disbursed.

As Tsipras prepared for the meeting in Brussels, he wrote to Merkel that it will be ‘‘impossible’’ to service imminent debt obligations without short-term financial aid, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing a March 15 letter seen by the newspaper.
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Spain says no cash for Greece until reforms implemented: FT

MADRID Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:07pm EDT
 (Reuters) - The euro zone will not make any cash payment to Greece until it has passed and implemented all the reforms Athens agreed on in February, Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told the Financial Times on Sunday.

The Spanish stance heaps pressure on Greece three days after it pledged to meet creditors' demands for a broad package of economic reform proposals within days to unlock the funds it needs to avoid stumbling out of the euro zone.

"We will see whether the list of reforms is comprehensive enough or not. (But) there will not be any disbursement before there is a real test that the reforms have been approved and implemented. That is the approach," de Guindos was quoted as saying.

"Nobody can violate the rules. It would be a failure for Greece or any other member to leave the euro. But it would be a similar, or even bigger, failure to breach our rules," he also said, adding that the Greek government should return to the policies of the previous center-right government.
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Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland pays back Uncle Scam in kind for America’s repeated attacks on their banks. UK election uncertainty starts putting  a wobble into the UK economy. More signs of a dying EUSSR. Anti Euro parties scored high percentages in local elections in France and Spain.

Switzerland to take part in founding of AIIB bank

ZURICH, March 20 Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:54pm IST
(Reuters) - Switzerland will participate in the establishment of a new international development bank backed by China, along with several other western European countries, the Swiss government said on Friday.

The Alpine nation will become a prospective founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), subject to approval by the existing signatories, the government said in a statement.

Election uncertainty saps enthusiasm for UK investment

The upcoming Election raises fears over the UK's membership of the EU, and will create a volatile pound, as well as uncertainty in the markets

Investors have short attention spans and they will already be moving on from last week’s Budget to the election campaign it kicked off. The final act in the Coalition was anyway a purely political confection, attempting to please as many different constituencies as possible.

Markets responded positively to the Chancellor’s self-congratulation, but the next few weeks could be more challenging.

This election could have a bigger impact on asset prices than any in living memory. The currency will most likely bear the brunt of pre and post-election uncertainty, but equities and gilts will be affected too.

It has become the conventional wisdom that another hung parliament is the most likely outcome. What is less well understood is the difficulty either main party may have in forming a workable coalition. That’s because they are neck and neck in the polls while the king-makers of 2010 are likely to win fewer seats this time.

According to HSBC, the most likely two-party government could be Labour and the SNP, which brings obvious constitutional challenges. Given these, it is entirely possible that either the Conservatives or Labour may try to battle on as a minority government, with the possibility of a second election within a year, as in 1974.
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Liquidity crisis could spark the next financial crash

Traders warn of a global credit 'meltdown' if corporate bond markets don't improve

For Norval Loftus, chief investment officer at Allegra Asset Management, trading corporate bonds is not as easy as it used to be.

“It’s like night and day compared with six or seven years ago,” the bond market veteran says. “There’s no comparison. It’s even tougher than it was six or seven months ago. It’s getting more and more difficult all the time.”

He is not alone. Investors across corporate bond markets are finding it harder to buy and sell company debt. And some investors are beginning to fear that the lack of liquidity will be the spark that ignites the next crisis in financial markets.

Liquidity is generally taken to mean the ease with which an investor can quickly buy or sell a security without moving its price. As regulation of banks tightens, the liquidity, particularly of European and US credit markets, has evaporated, prompting a host of regulators and central banks to sound warnings about the difficult trading environment.

A rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which would be the first since 2006, could trigger turmoil. Given the bond market is much larger than the equity market, and investors have piled into fixed income in recent years, fears are growing that when credit investors attempt to sell bonds en masse, the illiquidity in the market has the potential to cause a crisis of a similar magnitude to the credit crunch.

Last week, the Bank for International Settlements cautioned that liquidity was concentrating in the most readily traded securities and that “conditions are deteriorating in the less liquid ones”. A week earlier, Edwin Schooling-Latter, the Financial Conduct Authority’s head of market infrastructure, said that the scant liquidity in corporate bond markets warranted “careful regulatory monitoring”.

Perhaps the most arresting warning came last November, when the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) surveyed investors, analysts and traders of European corporate bonds and concluded that the common fear was that a “meltdown” of global credit markets had become unavoidable.
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23 March 2015

France local elections: Conservatives hold off National Front

France's centre-right UMP party and its allies have taken first place in the first round of local elections, partial results show.

Projections suggest that the far-right National Front - despite strong gains - came second with about 25% of the vote, behind the conservatives on 31%.

President Francois Hollande's governing Socialists came third with 20%.

Voters are electing representatives in 101 departments, or counties, charged with issues like schools and welfare.

The results mean the second round on 29 March will see a run-off between the UMP and the FN in many constituencies.

In the past, voters for rival parties have combined in the second round to keep the far right out.

The poor results for the Socialists follows on from their defeats in municipal and EU elections last year.
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Podemos storm into Andalusian parliament as Socialists fall short of majority

By James Badcock, Madrid 9:58PM GMT 22 Mar 2015
Voters in Andalucia punished Spain’s two major parties in Sunday’s regional election with a big drop for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) as the Socialists (PSOE) failed to secure a majority.

Two new parties, Podemos and Citizens, have gained representation for the first time in Andalucia, where unemployment stands at 34 per cent.

With 99 per cent of the votes counted, the PSOE had won 47 seats, short of the 55 needed for a majority, and the same number it won three years ago.

The PP, which won 50 seats in 2012, plummeted to 33.

Podemos had won 15, with Citizens taking 9 and the United Left 5 seats.

Pablo Iglesias, the pony-tailed leader of Podemos, tweeted his thanks to his supporters and Teresa Rodriguez, leader of Podemos in Andalucia.

"We're on the way. Thank you Andalucia, thank you Teresa Rodriguez, thank you supporters, for taking this first step. Onwards. #Podemos22M."

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 70.02 Moz, Eligible 104.85 Moz, Total 174.87 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.


Today a look at a fading America. As fast as Washington’s Fedster’s fuel Wall Street’s Great Vampire Squids, in the real world America’s infrastructure is showing its age and lack of adequate funding. A great malinvestment in Wall Street gambling is the result of disgraced former Guru Greenspan, Bernocchio, and the talking chair’s monetary madness. The real economy goes without.

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."
William F. Rickenbacker

The US economy is under threat because of its neglected infrastructure

Out of America: Public spending on roads, airports, bridges, railways and power grids is only half of Europe's, and some say the nation’s very prosperity is threatened

----Potholes are an unavoidable fact of life in climates such as Washington’s, of successive freezes and thaws, rainstorms and snowstorms, and God knows what corrosive chemicals slathered on the roads to keep them open. Indubitably though, there are now more potholes than ever. And they are a symptom of a far deeper crisis, one that some say threatens the very economic pre-eminence of America.

The way to eliminate potholes, or at least diminish their number, is to keep the roads in good shape, with regular resurfacing. But far less is being done than required. And the same goes for the rest of the infrastructure in the US: not just roads, but ports and airports, bridges, railways and power grids, those boring basics that keep a country running. America, to believe the title of a recent television documentary on the subject, is falling apart – literally.

Not so long ago the opposite was true. The US was the shining future that had already arrived. It had the best technology, the most modern cities, the fanciest cars, the most up-to-date airports. The jewel in the crown was the interstate highway system, built in the 1950s and 1960s to knit a continent together.

Alas, sooner or later, youthful beauty fades. And so it is with America’s infrastructure. Many of those projects date back to the immediate post-war years, even to FDR’s New Deal to counter the Great Depression. More than half a century later, they’re in desperate need of overhaul or replacement.

Surveys merely confirm America’s relative slide. A World Economic Forum report ranking countries by infrastructure puts America 25th (Britain came 24th while the winner, you might have guessed, was Switzerland). In air transport, a field pioneered by the US, the country has fallen to 30th – and anyone navigating New York’s grubby and congested airports, or drab Dulles here in DC, would consider that assessment flattering. Astonishingly, not a single major new airport has opened in the US since Denver International in 1995.

Another report claims that almost a third of America’s most important roads need major repair, while 70,000 bridges – one in nine – are deemed “structurally deficient”; in plain English, unsafe. In Pittsburgh, a river city where bridges are all, the proportion is one in five. A couple of times in recent years, these arid figures became real-life disasters: when the bridge at Minneapolis over the Mississippi, carrying Interstate I-35, collapsed in 2007, killing 13 people; and in 2013 when a bridge failed on I-5, the main Pacific coast highway, in Washington state.

In a car-addicted country, rail transport is inevitably something of a side-show. But that doesn’t explain why, of the 14,000-plus miles of high-speed rail in operation around the world, not a single mile is in the US – not even in the north-east corridor, where the national rail company Amtrak actually owns the track between Washington, New York and Boston, and where a high-speed link really would relieve congestion in the country’s most crowded airspace. Of course, you’d have to do something about railway stations too. Arriving at Penn Station in New York is to enter the antechamber of Hades.

In sea transport as well, America is losing ground. Ports on both Atlantic and Pacific coasts are scrambling to be ready to accommodate the larger New Panamax container ships that will pass through the expanded Panama Canal. But the two biggest, Los Angeles and nearby Long Beach, which handle 40 per cent of US imports, are already desperately congested, way behind the game.

It adds up to a pretty grim picture. Since the 1960s, public spending on infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has dropped to around half the European average and, the American Society of Civil Engineers reckons, $3.6trn will have to be spent if the US is to catch up. It’s a huge ask, for the federal government, the states and private investors who will have to put up the money. But if not, the ASCE warns, the price in terms of potential exports, jobs and personal income lost could be no less high.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-us-economy-is-under-threat-because-of-its-neglected-infrastructure-10125082.html

"We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades."

Leonard Read

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February

DJIA: +120 Down. NASDAQ: +213 Down. SP500: +169 Down.  

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