Baltic Dry Index. 598 +01 Brent Crude 58.48
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Every
generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before
it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.
George
Orwell.
Are the US stock markets starting the Great Reconnect to the real world. From London this morning it rather looks like they are, though it may not matter given the rapidly deteriorating new war developing in the Arabian peninsula. Saudi Arabia is now directly attacking Yemen’ Shia population. They are a heartbeat away from triggering a disastrous war with Iran. In a religious war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran –Iraq, an oil disruption is a certainty. Oil tanker insurance premiums would go through the roof, not that many would be inclined to risk putting tankers into the Persian Gulf. What a break for Russia, Scotland and Canada.
Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market
4:30 AM GMT March 26, 2015
Bloomberg) -- While Yemen
contributes less than 0.2 percent of global oil output, its location puts it
near the center of world energy trade.
The nation shares a border with
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, and sits on one side of a
shipping chokepoint used by crude tankers heading West from the Persian Gulf.
Global oil prices jumped more than 5 percent on Thursday after regional powers
began bombing rebel targets in the country that produced less than Denmark in
2013.
Yemen’s government has collapsed
in the face of an offensive by rebels known as Houthis, prompting airstrikes
led by Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries. The Gulf’s main Sunni Muslim power says the Houthis are
tools of its Shiite rival Iran, another OPEC member, and has vowed to do what’s
necessary to halt them.
“While thousands of barrels of
oil from Yemen will not be noticed, millions from Saudi Arabia will matter,”
said John Vautrain, who has more than 30 years’ experience in the energy
industry and is the head of Vautrain & Co., a consultant in Singapore.
“Saudi Arabia has been concerned about unrest spreading from Yemen.”
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-26/why-bombing-the-39th-biggest-oil-producer-is-roiling-the-market
Yemen Government’s Fall Is Blow to Obama’s War on Terror
1:01 AM GMT March 26, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Escalating chaos
in Yemen threatens the Obama administration’s ability to combat the al-Qaeda
affiliate that’s most intent on attacking the U.S. and its allies.
It was only last June that
President Barack Obama singled out Yemen as a model for U.S. efforts to fight
terrorism by relying on training allied forces rather than risk American lives.
Now the fall of the government and the turmoil there further imperil his
signature antiterrorist strategies, which also are facing difficulties in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and elsewhere.
“This is bad for
counterterrorism,” said Daniel Benjamin, a former State Department
antiterrorism adviser. “There’s no question there will be an effect on
intelligence-gathering -- and a significant one.”
The chaos also is impeding Obama’s
use of drone strikes as an antiterror weapon in Yemen. The attacks will go on,
U.S. officials say, but the lack of a friendly government means the U.S. has
lost some of its ability to gather intelligence in Yemen on terror suspects’
movements and activities, key details in finding targets for the pilotless
aircraft.
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-26/yemen-government-s-fall-is-another-blow-to-obama-s-war-on-terror
Now back to the Great Disconnect reconnecting. Is the Fedster’s greatest nightmare about to come true? Who is going to pay-off all the debt issued for window dressing stock buybacks? If an oil shock is about to crater the global economy, what is the central banksters Plan B?
Stocks are overpriced, overleveraged, headed for trouble
Published: Mar 25, 2015 12:37 p.m. ET
Office of Financial Research: high valuations and high debt levels pose risks
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Wall Street can’t say it hasn’t been warned.The Office of Financial Research, the agency tasked with promoting financial stability and keeping an eye on markets, released a paper last week stating that the stock market is dangerously overpriced, and that excessive leverage will exacerbate the next market correction.
The paper is aptly titled “Quicksilver Markets” alluding to when prices deflate, it will happen swiftly and not without pain.
“The timing of market shocks is difficult, if not impossible, to identify in advance, let alone quantify — a shock, by definition, is unexpected,” wrote Ted Berg, an analyst at OFR.
But Berg identified several indicators that are pointing to a correction. Instead of looking at valuation in isolation, Berg and his team analyzed other factors, such as corporate profits and leverage, and found a disturbing picture.
He argued that forward price-to-earnings ratios are not very good predictors of market downturns, as they tend to be biased during boom times, but other metrics, such as the so-called CAPE ratio, Q-ratio and Buffett indicator all offer warning signs.
Just to provide a little context for the less technically minded market watchers, the CAPE ratio is the ratio of the S&P 500 index to trailing 10-year average earnings. Q-ratio is the market value of nonfinancial corporate equities outstanding divided by net worth, while the Buffett Indicator describes the ratio of corporate-market value to gross national product. All three of those metrics are approaching two standard deviations above historical means, while forward P/E ratios are within historical norms.
More
Opinion: Dow Transports are calling bull on the stock market’s rise
Published: Mar 25, 2015 3:37 p.m. ET
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — It’s been four months since the Dow Jones
Transportation Average DJT, -2.03% hit its
all-time high. Should you be worried?Those who say “no” can point to more recent strength in the broader market averages. Just three weeks ago, for example, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.46% reached a record.
But others aren’t so sanguine. Some argue that the transportation sector is a leading economic indicator, reasoning that companies transporting goods to market will exhibit weakness when a recession looms. And the Dow Transports are now 4.3% below a high of 9,310.22 from Nov. 28, and 3.4% below a closing high of 9,217.44 on Dec. 29.
Statistical support for considering the transportation sector to be a leading indicator comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics in the U.S. Department of Transportation. Several years ago, in a study titled “The Freight Transportation Services Index as a Leading Economic Indicator,” that bureau found that this index over the past three decades “led slowdowns in the economy by an average of four to five months.”
More
"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."
Hans F. Sennholz
At the Comex silver
depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 70.57 Moz, Eligible 104.61
Moz, Total 175.18 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
“When it becomes serious you have to lie.”
Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M.,
serial liar, president of the European Commission.
Europe blocks desperate Greek attempt to stay afloat
Eurozone says it is "legally impossible" to return €1.2bn in rescue funds to cash-strapped Athens
The Greek government will not receive €1.2bn (£883m) in European rescue funds after officials ruled the Leftist government had no legal claims on the cash.Athens requested the return of money it said was erroneously handed to creditors from Greece's own bank recapitalisation fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Facility (HFSF).
The transfer was originally arranged by the previous Greek administration.
But eurozone officials have blocked the claim, saying it is "legally impossible" transfer the money back to the debt-stricken country.
"There was agreement that, legally, there was no over payment from the HFSF to the EFSF," said a fund spokesman.
Germany's finance ministry also objected, claiming there was "no reason" to make the transfer.
The decision is a further blow to the Greek government's attempts to stay afloat over the next few weeks.
Athens has been scrambling to make repayments to its creditors while continuing to pay wages and pensions. The government now faces another €2.4bn cash squeeze in April, including a €450m loan repayment to the IMF on April 9.
As part of its efforts to stay
solvent, the Leftist government has also requested a €1.9bn transfer of profits
held by the European Central Bank, from the holdings of Greek government bonds.
So far, the ECB has rebuffed all Greek pleas to alleviate their cash squeeze.
The central bank has officially
banned the country's banks from increasing their holdings of short-term
government debt.
Greek banks are being kept alive
through the provision of an expensive form of emergency liquidity (ELA) which
is rapidly being used up as capital flees the country. The ECB decided to
incrementally raise the limit on ELA to €71bn - a bigger hike than in previous
weeks.
----Worsening deposit flight has placed the squeeze on Greek lenders, who are only eligible for ELA as long as they are deemed to be solvent. Mr Praet said the country's banks remained counterparties in their operations with the ECB, suggesting they remained healthy enough to continue receiving ELA.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has
accused the institution of exacerbating the country's cash-flow problems
through its actions.
But Greece's central bank
governor warned "Grexit would not happen" insisting the eurozone had
all the tools it needed to avoid an "accidental" exit from the
currency union.
"Grexit implies huge costs
for the Greek people," Yannis Stournaras told an audience at the London
School of Economics on Wednesday.
----Athens has now promised to send a full list of its reform package to creditors by Monday, in a bid to release €7.2bn in bail-out cash it needs to stay afloat until June.
Following weeks of stalled
negotiations, president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said his
pessimism over Greece was now subsiding.
More"Gold bears the confidence of the world's millions, who value it far above the promises of politicians, far above the unbacked paper issued by governments as money substitutes. It has been that way through all recorded history. There is no reason to believe it will lose the confidence of people in the future."
Oakley R. Bramble
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: +120 Down. NASDAQ: +213 Down. SP500: +169 Down.
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