Baltic Dry Index. 564 +02 Brent Crude 53.44
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.”
H. L. Mencken.
Weak US manufacturing data put the Fed over a barrel and don’t the
hedgies and HFT algo traders know it. The Great Disconnect in the stock casino will
go on, because nobody now believes that the Fedster’s dare raise rates in June,
if ever! The Fed has successfully been cornered by the Great Vampire Squids of
Wall Street. Raising interest rates in a slowing US economy would make Wall
Street’s crash of 1987 look like a rally. They have no one to blame but
themselves.
Weak U.S. factory data suggest softer economic growth
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing
output fell in February for the third straight month as the production of
automobiles and a range of goods tumbled, the latest indication of slower
economic growth in the first quarter.
Factory production slipped 0.2
percent after declining 0.3 percent in January, the Federal Reserve said on
Monday.
"The recovery appears to
have hit a soft patch," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD
Securities in New York.
Economic activity has softened in
recent months, constrained by harsh weather, a strong dollar and weaker demand
overseas. The now-settled labor dispute at the country's West Coast ports also
acted as a drag.
Data ranging from retail sales
to
construction and home building have been dour, prompting economists to slash
their first-quarter GDP growth estimates to as low as a 1.2 percent annualized
pace.
Economists had forecast
manufacturing output edging up 0.1 percent last month.
Auto production fell 3 percent in
February. There were also declines in the output of machinery, primary metals,
computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, appliances and
components, and apparel and leather goods.
The cooling likely persisted in
March, with a report from the New York Federal Reserve showing its Empire State
general business conditions index falling to 6.90 in March from 7.78 in
February.
More
Asia Stocks Rise as U.S. Factory Data Damp Rate-Rise Speculation
12:08 AM GMT March 17, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose,
after a rebound in U.S. equities, as weak economic data eased speculation the
Federal Reserve will bring forward plans to raise interest rates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
gained 0.4 percent to 144.40 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Factory production in
the U.S. declined in February for a third straight month, data showed Monday,
while confidence among U.S. homebuilders unexpectedly retreated this month to
an eight-month low. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.4 percent, the
most in almost six weeks. The Fed starts a two-day meeting today, with
investors watching whether the central bank removes a reference to being
“patient” on rate increases from its statement.
“While the word patient may be
taken away from the Fed statement, they won’t raise rates immediately since
there are still signs of weakness in the U.S. economy,” said Hans Goetti
Singapore-based head of investment for Asia at Banque Internationale a
Luxembourg SA, which has about $36 billion in assets. “Given that the Bank of
Japan and European Central Bank are still pursuing quantitative easing, it’s
hard to see the U.S. raising rates immediately.”
More
Market Tops In! Why Buy-The-Dippers Can’t Get It Up
by David Stockman •
I
am sure some chart reader can explain the S&P 500’s laborious struggle
since September 2——the day it crossed the 2000 barrier—-as a classic “wall of
worry”. But that event occurred nearly seven months ago and the
market has dipped 15 times since then and has actually plunged six times
(by more than 3%). And all it had to show for its exertions going into today’s
opening was a 50 point or 2.5% gain. In this bull market, that’s a rounding
error.
So we have arrived at a precarious place. After the Fed has spent six-years inflating a new and even more stupendous financial bubble—-the third this century—-the market top is in. And after five-and-one-half years of so-called recovery from the recession’s end in June 2009, the bottom is now falling out of the economy—-both abroad and here, too.
In that context, a new form of danger arises. The Keynesian pettifoggers at the Fed have painted themselves into an epochal corner. After 78 months of ZIRP they have no idea about how and why they got here; and now, mired deep in the lunacy of free money, they are clueless about where they are going next.
More
In oil news, it was
more of the same new normal. Rising production meets falling demand from a
slowing global economy. The slowing global economy, will likely end in a hard
landing in China, leading up to a great reconnect in global stock markets. But
with the Fed trapped over a barrel of its own making, the Great American
fracking bust is just a minor lounge act in our new complacent age of QE
fuelled central bank casino capitalism.
OPEC says low oil prices may hit U.S. output by late 2015
By Alex
Lawler LONDON
(Reuters) - U.S. oil output could
start to take a hit by late 2015 due to low prices, OPEC said on Monday,
suggesting the exporter group will have to wait beyond its next meeting in June
to see if its strategy to defend market share will dent the shale oil boom.The halving of oil prices since June 2014 has prompted spending cuts by oil companies and a drop in U.S. drilling, raising expectations of slowing output in countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
But in a monthly report, OPEC left its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year unchanged and said output of U.S. "tight" oil, also known as shale, might only start to be curbed towards the end of the year.
"Tight crude producers are aware that typical oil wells in shale plays decline 60 percent annually, and that losses can only be recouped by drilling new wells," OPEC said.
"As drilling subsides due to high costs and a potentially sustained low oil price, a drop in production can be expected to follow, possibly by late 2015."
Oil's LCOc collapse from $115 a barrel in 2014 gained impetus after OPEC refused to cut output at a November meeting, seeking to slow higher-cost production in the United States and elsewhere that had been eroding its market share.
OPEC holds its next meeting in
June and comments from officials so far suggest it will not adjust policy as it
waits for the strategy
to take
effect.
For now, OPEC forecast no further
rise in demand for its crude in 2015, trimming the forecast slightly to 29.19
million bpd, and left unchanged its estimate of global growth in oil demand
this year.
In last month's report, OPEC had
sharply increased the 2015 forecast of demand for its oil due to a lower outlook
for non-OPEC supply.
More
Oil futures mark lowest settlement in 6 years
Published: Mar 16, 2015 3:20 p.m. ET
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Prices for the U.S. crude-oil benchmark marked
their lowest settlement in six years on Monday, as investors remained fixated
on a supply glut.Prices took a hit despite a report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that forecast a drop in U.S. output by the end of the year.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude CLJ5, -0.50% settled at $43.88 a barrel, down 96 cents, or 2.1%, after tapping a low under $43. Prices for a most-active contract haven’t settled at a level this low since March 11, 2009. Last week, they fell 9.6%.
More
“As
democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more
closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain
folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House
will be adorned by a downright moron.”
H. L.
Mencken.
At the Comex silver
depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 69.43 Moz, Eligible 107.00
Moz, Total 176.43 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Well aware of how the Great Nixonian Error of fiat
money has turned Uncle Scam from the world’s largest creditor into the world’s
largest debtor by far, and how unsustainable and volatile the whole fiat
currency house of cards has now become, Europe is fast moving to hedge their
bets. Uncle Scam seems to be backing away from a fight he can’t win. Stay long
fully paid up gold and silver.
In central banking as in diplomacy,
style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count
greatly and results far much less.
J. K. Galbraith.
Major U.S. allies to join China-backed bank: reports
SEOUL(Reuters) - A senior U.S. diplomat said it was up to individual countries whether to join a new China-led international development bank as media reports said a growing number of close U.S. allies were ignoring Washington's pressure to stay out of the institution.
France, Germany and Italy have agreed to follow Britain's lead and join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Financial Times reported, quoting European officials.
The newspaper said the decision by the four countries to become members of the AIIB was a major diplomatic setback for Washington, which has questioned if the new bank will have high standards of governance and environmental and social safeguards.
The bank is also seen as contributing to the spread of China's "soft power" in the region, possibly at the expense of the United States.
EU parliament president Martin Schulz said he welcomed the four European nations joining the AIIB, but added the bank must conform to internationally accepted standards.
"I find it good that they join," he told reporters while on a visit to Beijing. "If more member states would join I would find it even better.
"There is one additional element. Such new organizations must answer to the requirements of international standards. That is quite important."
China's state-owned Xinhua news agency said South Korea, Switzerland and Luxembourg were also considering joining.
On Tuesday, Washington's top diplomat for east Asia signaled that the concerns about the AIIB remained, but the decision on whether to join was up to individual nations.
"Our messaging to the Chinese consistently has been to welcome investment in infrastructure but to seek unmistakable evidence that this bank...takes as its starting point the high watermark of what other multilateral development banks have done in terms of governance," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel said in Seoul.
---- The AIIB was launched in Beijing last year to spur investment in Asia in transportation, energy, telecommunications and other infrastructure. It was seen as a rival to the Western-dominated World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
China said earlier this year a total of 26 countries had been included as founder members, mostly from Asia and the Middle East. It plans to finalize the articles of agreement by the end of the year.
Japan, Australia and South Korea remain notable absentees in the region, though Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said at the weekend he would make a final decision on AIIB membership soon.
South Korea has said it is still in discussions with China and other countries about its possible participation.
More
If
all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
J. K.
Galbraith.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: +120 Down. NASDAQ: +213 Down. SP500: +169 Down.
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