Friday 6 February 2015

The Franco Germans Advance on Moscow.



Baltic Dry Index. 564 -05    Brent Crude 57.98

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

The bankster in his mansion,
The Greeks at his gate,
Draghi made them High or lowly,
He disordered their estate.

With apologies to All things bright and beautiful.

This morning there is near panic in Uncle Scam’s War Party. An interesting weekend lies ahead. The US puppet government in Kiev just can’t seem to get its troops and fliers to fight. Ukraine’s Russian revolutionaries, have long since left their “Trenton” victory, and seem on track for the Russian Patriots to achieve their “Yorktown” result. Yesterday, US secretary of State Kerry, German Chancellor Merkel, and French President “love rat” Hollande, all rushed to collapsing Kiev to demand more from the demoralised installed puppet government. This wasn’t how Vicky Nuland and the War Party envisaged how “Yats” would lead the Ukraine into NATO, collapse Russia and Belarus, and allow Uncle Scam and the west to slice and dice up Russian natural resources, and isolate and surround China. Where was “Mad dog McCain?”

Today Frau Merkel and love rat Hollande head on from Kiev to Moscow, to beg Putin not to commit regular Russian troops to finish off the botched coup in Kiev. From where I watch from faraway London he doesn’t need to, unless to humanitarianly bring this US made unnecessary tragedy to an early end. Letting this war go red hot come Spring, threatens to bleed the EU, IMF, and Uncle Scam dry. The slightest miscalculation on either side, threatens tactical nukes,  followed real fast with something much worse. Not a good time to be owning property or living in Fort Mead or Cheltenham.

Merkel Heads to Moscow for Deal to Pull Ukraine Back From Brink

10:37 AM WET February 5, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande will press Vladimir Putin for a cease-fire in Ukraine on Friday as U.S. and Russian officials expressed skepticism that a quick resolution to stem the spiraling violence is possible.

After meeting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday, the German and French leaders head to Moscow on Friday to present an alternative to a peace proposal drawn up by Putin that laid separatist claim to swathes of eastern Ukrainian territory. The U.S is also working to “change Russia’s behavior,” said Secretary of State John Kerry, who also met Poroshenko in Kiev, though President Barack Obama’s administration said a deal may be tough to achieve.

“We have seen the Ukrainian government live up to a lot of those agreements and at least try to implement them,” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said on Thursday. “But those efforts have been entirely undermined by Russian-backed separatists with the full support of Russia completely ignoring those commitments.”

Even as Russia, the U.S. and European Union states call for a truce after a new offensive by separatist forces, the standoff between Putin and his country’s former Cold War foes is intensifying as the warring parties pour more troops and firepower into the conflict. The war is also pummeling Ukraine’s economy. The hryvnia plunged 31 percent Thursday after the central bank loosened its management of the currency.

As the rebel advance triggers calls for an immediate truce to evacuate civilians from the conflict zone, Poroshenko has appealed for arms to fight what his government labels a war of “Russian aggression.” Merkel has rejected the idea of providing lethal assistance and Obama has remained skeptical.

---Poroshenko hosted the European leaders for dinner in Kiev, and said the meeting gave “hope for a cease-fire,” according to the presidential website. The contents of the Hollande-Merkel plan are being kept secret. A French official said that while new sanctions aren’t currently on the agenda, they can’t be ruled out. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to talk to the press.

The proposal follows a plan put forward by Putin, that, according to a Western diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity, advocates creating a territory similar to the frozen-conflict areas of Abkhazia or Transnistria -- breakaway provinces of Georgia and Moldova that enjoy Russian patronage.

----At the same time, Putin and other officials are losing faith that their preferred outcome -- greater autonomy for the Donbass region within a federal Ukraine -- will come to pass, according to three people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak publicly about the discussions. It’s increasingly likely the rebel-held regions will break away, according to three people familiar with the matter, they said.

“I don’t see a compromise,” Joerg Forbrig, senior program director for central and eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. said by phone. “Ukraine will accept nothing less than the demilitarization and full administrative control over the east, and won’t accept the federalization that the Russians are demanding.”

----Ties between Merkel and Putin, who have spoken about 70 times since the conflict erupted, hit a low in Brisbane, Australia, last year when the German leader pointed out places on a map that she saw as targets of Russian meddling, according to a meeting participant who asked not to be named because the talks were private. Putin insisted he’s encircled by U.S.-led powers and isn’t seeking expansion.

Merkel, who will visit Moscow for the first time since the violence flared in 2013, opposes supplying Ukraine with weapons “because Russia would react with military steps and we would find ourselves in a spiral of violence,” German Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Wittig said on Thursday.
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And in “conditioning the public” for war with Russia, the War Party tries to open up a new line of attack.

Putin could attack Baltic states warns former Nato chief

Vladimir Putin could mastermind a hybrid attack on a Baltic state to test whether Nato would mobilise, warns Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Vladimir Putin has dangerous ambitions beyond Ukraine and aims to test Western resolve in the Baltic states, the former head of Nato has warned.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former secretary-general of the Atlantic alliance, said the Kremlin’s true goal is to shatter Nato solidarity and reassert Russian dominance over Eastern Europe.

“This is not about Ukraine. Putin wants to restore Russia to its former position as a great power,” he told The Telegraph.

“There is a high probability that he will intervene in the Baltics to test Nato’s Article 5,” he said, referring to the solidarity clause that underpins collective security.

“Putin knows that if he crosses the red line and attacks a Nato ally, he will be defeated. Let us be quite clear about that. But he is a specialist in hybrid warfare,” he said.

The fear is that the Kremlin will generate a murky conflict in Estonia or Latvia where there are large Russian minorities, using arms-length action or “little green men” without insignia to disguise any intervention. This may tempt weaker Nato members to play down the incident, either to protect commercial ties with Russia or because of pro-Kremlin sympathies as in Hungary or Greece.

Estonia's relations with Russia worsened significantly last September when a squad of Russian security operatives allegedly crossed into Estonian territory and seized Eston Kohver, a veteran officer in the Estonian Security Service.

Mr Kohver was paraded on Russian television as a spy and is currently being held in a high security prison in Moscow. Analysts believe the abduction - which took place two days after a visit to Tallinn by Barack Obama - was designed to demonstrate Russia's muscle in the Baltics.

Nato has already beefed up its forces in the region with squadrons of fighter jets, chiefly as show of force and as a strategic tripwire to reassure allies. Its Baltic Air Policing Mission intercepted 150 incursions into NATO airspace by Russian aircraft last year.

Article 5 states that a military attack on any one Nato country is an attack on all of them, triggering collective mobilization. It has been invoked just once in the 66-year history of the alliance, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York.

Nobody knows what would happen if one of the Baltic states invoked Article 5 protection but was turned down by the Nato Council. Failure to respond would devastate Nato’s credibility and undermine the principle of deterrence, though allies could still act as a coalition of the willing outside the treaty structure.

----"Nato countries have cut defence spending by 20pc in real terms over the last five years – and some by 40pc - while Russia has increased by 80pc. The aggression in Ukraine is a wake-up call," he said.

“We learned in the Libyan crisis that Europe is totally reliant on the Americans for air-refueling, drones, and communications intelligence. We don’t have air transport. It is really bad.”

Belgium is the most extreme case, famed for its well-armed pension fund while fighting capability fades away. It spends 96pc of defence budget on salaries, retirement, and its Burgundian canteens. The share spent on military kit has been slashed to 4pc. “Military confidence is nearing the point of collapse," said Alexander Mattelear from the Vrije Universtiteit in Brussels.
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Putin has 'some form of autism' Pentagon experts conclude, after watching videos of him

UK charity says 'laughable' study is 'driven by the wilder reaches of military intelligence'

Thursday 05 February 2915
Vladimir Putin has “an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions", a report has claimed.

The Office of Net Assessment – a Pentagon think tank in the US – published findings in 2008 and 2011, and said the Russian President has “an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions.”

Brenda Connors, an expert in movement pattern analysis at the US Naval War College in Newport, wrote: “The Russian President carries a neurological abnormality.”

The think tank concluded that Putin’s “neurological development was significantly interrupted in infancy,” after studying him in videos, and that his authoritarian obsession with “extreme control” is a way of overcompensating for his condition.

The report cites Dr. Stephen Porges as concluding that “Putin carries a form of autism”. However, Mr Porges has since said he has never seen the finished report and warned Connor’s team should “back off saying he has Asperger's”.

Jane Harris, Director of External Affairs and Social Change at the UK's National Autistic Society (NAS) told the Independent:

“This kind of speculative diagnosis is fraught with risks and is unhelpful. Autism is a complex condition and a diagnosis should only ever be made following a thorough, holistic face-to-face process involving both the individual and the diagnostician.

“According to accounts in the media, the study authors themselves backed off from confirming their diagnosis because ‘they were not able to perform a brain scan on the Russian president’.
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But all is not well in aged NATO.

U.S. defense chief voices fear of north-south NATO divide

By David Alexander and Adrian Croft BRUSSELS Thu Feb 5, 2015 12:37pm EST
(Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel expressed concern on Thursday about a possible north-south divide in NATO and urged the alliance to tackle multiple security issues at once rather than focusing on only one.

Hagel, making his final appearance at NATO as U.S. defense chief, said the alliance faced several challenges, including violent extremism on its southern rim, Russian aggression in Ukraine and training security forces in Afghanistan.

"I am very concerned by the suggestion that this alliance can choose to focus on only one of these areas as our top priority," Hagel told a news conference. "And I worry about the potential for division between our northern and southern allies."

Hagel's remarks came as NATO allies, especially along the northern tier of Europe, are concerned about responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine and Moscow's threatening moves along its northwestern frontier.

In southern Europe, countries like Spain and Italy worry about threats from Africa and the Middle East and believe NATO needs to focus more energy there to deal with extremism and trafficking in drugs, weapons and people.

"It's a growing sort of divide that we’re seeing happen between north and south," said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The official said Hagel had raised the issue at a lunch with other NATO defense ministers, some of whom voiced similar concerns. The U.S. defense chief later mentioned the issue at his news conference.

"The alliance’s ability to meet all these challenges at once, to the east, to the south and out-of-area, is NATO’s charge for the future," Hagel said.

"This is a time for unity, shared purpose and wise, long-term investments across the spectrum of military capability," he added. "We must address all the challenges to this alliance, all together and all at once."

Hagel spoke as NATO defense ministers met to sign off on a network of command centers in eastern Europe to rapidly reinforce the region in the event of any threat from Russia, as well as two new regional headquarters and a bigger rapid reaction force.

They were expected to agree to more than double the size of NATO's existing rapid reaction force - to 30,000 soldiers from 13,000 - and to flesh out details of a 5,000-strong "spearhead" force with a faster reaction time of only a few days.

Britain 'threatens to stop sharing intelligence' with Germany

British intelligence officials have threatened to stop sharing information if Germany presses ahead with a parliamentary inquiry into British and American spying, a German news magazine claims

By Justin Huggler, Berlin 2:32PM GMT 05 Feb 2015
British intelligence officials are so alarmed at a parliamentary inquiry into their activities in Germany that they have threatened to stop sharing information if it goes ahead.

According to a report in Focus magazine, British spy chiefs are worried that German politicians could reveal classified information about their joint projects, including details about code-breaking and technology. They fear a Europe-wide surveillance project that began last year, and includes British and German intelligence, could be comprised.

Germany is taking the threat, said to have been made by senior British officials, seriously. Gerhard Schindler, the head of Germany's federal intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) reportedly brief the parliamentary inquiry on the "unusually tense relations with British partner agencies" on Wednesday evening.

German intelligence depends on shared information from the UK, particularly when monitoring jihadists returning from Syria and Iraq.

“Without the information from British signals intelligence we would be blind," an unnamed senior intelligence official told the magazine.

Known in Germany as the "NSA committee", the parliamentary enquiry was set up last year after documents leaked by Edward Snowden, the American whistleblower, suggested that Britain and the US had been spying on their ally Germany.

Germans were enraged to discover that the US National Security Agency (NSA) had listened into Angela Merkel's telephone calls.

Last summer, Mrs Merkel's government asked the BND to spy on how Britain and the US gathers intelligence on German soil, the first time it has done so since the Second World War. The request was made after a double agent was uncovered in the BND selling secrets to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

The CIA's station chief in Berlin was asked to leave Germany after the news broke.
Britain's relationship with Germany was also hit after it emerged that the UK was using its embassy as a listening post to monitor communications in the buildings of government departments nearby.

Behind the scenes, information sharing has continued and government communications headquarters (GCHQ) recently set up a joint project to monitor hundreds of volunteers who travelled from Britain and Germany to wage jihad in Syria and Iraq, according to Bild newspaper.

It is not the first time that the parliamentary inquiry has hit the headlines. Last October, Mrs Merkel's office threatened its members with criminal charges after secret documents were leaked.
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Elsewhere in the new developing EUSSR civil war, Germany seems to be pushing Greece to exit the wealth destroying euro this weekend. Nien, nien, nien, was the friendly brotherhood of Europe message from Berlin to Athens serfs. Though in a move deemed helpful in Berlin, Herr Schauble directed 500 German tax storm troopers to be sent south to Greece, to reform the Greek tax system and launch a Gestapo like attack on Greek tax evaders, aka the Greeks. Just wait until the German tax horde enters into Italy, Spain and France. The UK may not have to leave the dying EU in 2017, soon there may not be an EU to leave at all.

Greece pleads with Berlin for time and money to re-write debt deal

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis evokes fears of Nazism in Greece in a bid to end his country's "ritual humiliation" at the hands of its creditors

Greece’s finance minister pleaded for his country to be given time and money to negotiate a new debt deal with its creditors, after the European Central Bank sought to pull the carpet from under the feet of the country’s stricken banks.

Following an uneasy two-hour showdown with his German counterpart in Berlin, Yanis Varoufakis admitted he had failed to “agree to disagree” with Wolfgang Schauble over his government’s demands to re-write its €240bn bailout agreement.

The meeting was the last leg of Syriza’s tour of Europe’s capitals, where Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his number two hoped to drum up support for an alleviation of the bailout terms imposed by the Troika.

Yanis Varoufakis sought to appeal to the hearts of ordinary Germans, even evoking the spectre of Nazism in his country in a bid to end the “gross indiginity” Greece has suffered since the financial crisis.

“The German nation is the one nation that can understand us best" said Mr Varoufakis, comparing Greece’s “ritual humiliation” with the debt deflationary policies that helped bring Hitler to power in the 1930s.

“When I return home tonight I shall find myself in a parliament in which the third-largest party is not a neo-Nazi party, it is a Nazi party. We need the people of Germany on our side."

Mr Varoufakis repeated his demand for Greece to be awarded an emergency bridging loan to help keep the country afloat as it seeks to negotiate with the Troika. Athens current bailout deal is due to expire on February 28.

In a tense exchange, Mr Schaeuble said Europe’s creditors had gone to the limit of what was “possible and reasonable” on Greece’s debt arrangements.

“Yes we must respect Greek voters, but we must also respect the voters of other European countries,” said Mr Schauble.

In an ominous prelude to the showdown between Europe's largest creditor and its most indebted government, it was revealed that Mr Schaeuble refused a request from George Osborne to give Mr Varoufakis the German minister's personal mobile phone number. Mr Varoufakis was in London for talks with the Chancellor earlier this week.

The meeting between the two came hours after the European Central Bank suspended the waiver allowing it to accept the country’s junk-rated bonds as collateral for loans.

The move means Greek banks sole source of funding will come through the ECB’s emergency liquidity programme (ELA). The central bank moved to raise the ELA limit for Greece to €60bn according to reports in Germany’s Die Welt. Greek lenders borrowed €56bn in December, according to the Bank of Greece.
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Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of the multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper.

Charles Mackay. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 67.79 Moz, Eligible 110.22 Moz, Total 178.01 Moz.   

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, why would you buy American or British computer equipment or British, when you know that the NSA and GCHQ have built in all kinds of back doors and trapdoors to hack and steal your information, let far away spooks take over your computers and disable or pervert them, or use them to launch cyber attacks on other countries. US “business groups” have just woken up to how the NSA self excluded them from one sixth of the planet’s growing business.

Groups Urge U.S. Fight Against China Foreign Tech Purge

1:15 AM WET February 6, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. business groups are seeking immediate action from the Obama administration to reverse “troubling” Chinese security requirements they say will block foreign software, servers and computing equipment from the country.

If fully implemented, the policies threaten the ability of U.S. companies to participate in China’s $465 billion market for information technology products, 17 business groups wrote in a Feb. 4 letter to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and other government officials. The appeal by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Foreign Trade Council and U.S. Information Technology Office followed similar correspondence last week to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cyberspace security panel.

“These business groups see the writing on the wall,” Mark Natkin, managing director of Marbridge Consulting, said by phone Friday in Beijing. “They have realized this is not a quick campaign that’s going to blow over. It’s going to impact their business here over the long term.”

Chinese regulators summoned bank officials for a meeting last month to stress the need to carry out a nationwide directive to cut China’s reliance on foreign technology, people familiar with the matter said. That directive was a follow-up to a broad national strategy, reported by Bloomberg News in December, to purge most foreign technology from banks, state-owned enterprises and the military by 2020.

Rules and regulations for screening information technology products would take effect this year, Peng Bo, deputy director of the Cyberspace Administration of China, said Jan. 21.

Meeting Chinese standards for “secure and controllable” technology would require foreign technology companies to submit to intrusive testing, hand over source code and engineer products to restrict cross-border data flow, the U.S. business groups said in their letter. Being forced from the market could result in losses that curb research, cost the U.S. jobs and harm innovation, they said.

----The cybersecurity debate between the U.S. and China has been strained since Edward Snowden revealed widespread spying by the U.S. National Security Agency and accused the intelligence service of hacking into the computers of Tsinghua University, one of the China’s top research centers. Last February, Xi called for faster development of the industry at the first meeting of his Internet security panel.

The U.S. business groups said they expected the new cybersecurity regulations to be reviewed and potentially expanded at that panel’s upcoming annual meeting.

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Another weekend, after getting nuked by the ECB and the Germans during the week, will the new Greek government nuke back by defaulting and Grexit? Probably not, as they probably still think that time is on their side, though it isn’t. Next weekend is more likely I think. Have a good weekend everyone. It may become one of our last.

Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

Greece, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January

DJIA: +124 Down. NASDAQ: +220 Down. SP500: +178 Down.  

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