Baltic Dry Index. 577 -13 Brent Crude 57.62
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J. K. Galbraith.
For the last three days, the big central bankster market rig was on. In
a last ditch central bankster “Battle of the Bulge,” with the desperate central
banksters in the role of the Germans, everything was thrown in to fuel a new
bubble in oil and stocks. The new Greek government had blinked, and was
buckling under the pressure from Brussels, Berlin and Washington. They weren’t.
The USA was about to suddenly under produce fracking oil. They weren’t. The
Saudis and the Russians were about to cut oil production. They weren’t. The commodities
markets had fallen to far too fast. They had, and were oversold, vulnerable to a central bank short squeeze. But a short
squeeze, while good fun to all but the shorts, is far from a global recovery.
This time in the Battle of the Bulge, the central banksters ran into too much
oil.
The Great Global Slowdown has excess crude oil piling up everywhere. If
the Great Global Slowdown really was ending, would the Baltic Dry Index be
collapsing to new daily lows? This big rig may have bust a few shorts, but it
isn’t going to change the outcome of the war. The EUSSR is dying and unsavable,
not that anyone should try. The Great Nixonian Error of fiat money is deep into
the final act. Abenomics is about to blow up a rapidly aging Japan. China’s
Great Era of Malinvestment has reached the end of the road. There is no
sustainable demand for many if not most, industrial commodities at current
prices. Come Spring, unless Washington’s War Party calls off the ill-judged puppet
war in the Ukraine, a hot murderous war is about to breakout. Reality is about
to resume.
Oil retreats from highs as inventory data show huge build
Published: Feb 3, 2015 10:53 p.m. ET
By MichaelKitchen
LOS
ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Benchmark U.S. crude-oil futures headed solidly lower
in early electronic trade Wednesday, giving away a chunk of the gains made in a
monster rally the previous day as inventory data showed more oil on hand than
expected.
West Texas Intermediate crude for March CLH5, -1.24% was down $1.48, or 2.8%, at $51.57 a barrel by midday in East Asia.
The retreat took a sizeable bite out of the contract’s 7% surge in regular New York Mercantile Exchange trade Tuesday, with analysts citing hope that a cut in U.S. production would whittle down crude stockpiles.
But such hopes were dampened, at least for the short term, as American Petroleum Institute data released after the Nymex close reportedly showed weekly inventories rising by more than double what the market had expected.
Crude stocks for the week ended Jan. 30 increased to the tune of 6.1 million barrels, analysts cited the API as saying, compared to a consensus forecast for a rise of just 2.8 million barrels, according to a Platts survey.
More
Asia Stocks Extend Global Gains; Oil Slips as Bonds Slide
11:26 PM WET February 3, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks
headed for the biggest gain in six weeks and emerging-market currencies
strengthened after a three-day rally in commodities. Australian bonds plunged
while German yields were below Japan’s for a second day.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
gained 1.5 percent by 7:10 a.m. in London, as sub-indexes of materials and
energy companies surged. Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. U.S. oil slipped 1.3 percent after a
four-day, 19 percent rebound. Russia’s ruble climbed and China’s yuan jumped.
The rate on Japan’s 10-year bond rose three basis points, holding above the
yield on similar German notes. Australia’s 10-year yield advanced by the most
in 19 months a day after the central bank unexpectedly cut rates.
Global stocks have erased 2015
losses this week as energy companies jumped amid speculation that crude prices
may have found a bottom and as Greece softened its stance on a debt writedown.
Oil is paring gains before data Wednesday that may show stockpiles in the U.S.
rose last week. A gauge of China’s services industry expanded at the weakest
pace in six months before similar measures in Europe and the U.S.
“There are still underlying
issues out there, but the market is choosing to ignore it right now,” said Matt
Riordan, a Sydney-based portfolio manager who helps oversee about $7.5 billion
at Paradice Investment Management Pty. “When push comes to shove, it’s all
about central banks at the moment. When the oil supply report does come out, it
will potentially cause quite a bit of volatility. To try and see where the
price is going from here will just be guesswork.”
More
Here We Go Again: The Robo Machines Are Raging
by David Stockman •
Here we go again. The robo
machines have been raging for the past two days, and by mid-afternoon we
were hovering around 2045 on the S&P 500. Since that’s only 2.3%
below the all-time high reached at the end of
December, bubblevision’s amen chorus was back out in force, pronouncing
that all is well, the momentary headwinds are fading and, yes, the
bottom’s in.
Not exactly. The robo
machines are actually drunk. The S&P 500 first shot through 2045 back
on about November 13th, and was then on its way to 2070 by early
December. It then reversed course and plunged through 2045 from above on
December 10, reaching a low of 1989 a few days later. Shortly
thereafter the market erupted back over 2045 on December
18th—-as it soared along an upward path to its year-end and
all-time peak of 2090.
As is evident in the chart below,
the zigzagging has only gotten more intense and frequent since the
turn of the year. By January 2, the S&P 500 plunged back
below the 2045 mark, but five days later was back above it; then it
was down again on January 9, back up on January 21, and back down on
January 26. So here we are on February 3 back above 2045——virtually the
same spot as early November.
The market is cycling, but the
economic facts on the ground are not. Everywhere the trends are getting worse,
and not by trivial or debatable increments. Were the stock market an actual
discounting device engaged in price discovery, it would be heading south— not
in circles.
But robo machines and day traders
do not weigh and assess comprehensive market and economic information, nor
do they give a wit for trends; they simply careen between chart points
based on headlines. And most of the headlines in question have to do with a
very specific thing. Namely, some new indication that the worldwide central bank
Ponzi has found yet another way to prolong the day of reckoning.
Today the headline ramp was that
the new Greek government was backing off from its confrontation with the EU and
looking for a 10-week “bridge” to a new deal that would have everything coming
up roses by June 1. Shortly thereafter, of course, the Germans and the ECB
issued a ringing “nein!” But the chart points were in for the day.
More
Today we give the last word on
the big rig to Mike Shedlock. As new bedrock to build a new central bankster
bubble, this comes close to building on
quicksand.
Smart Debt Engineering:
Markets Giddy Over Greek Debt Proposal; ECB Nixes Plan Already; Party On Dudes
Mish
The markets are giddy today over a Plan to End Debt Standoff released yesterday by Greek
finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.Varoufakis said the government would no longer call for a headline write-off of Greece’s €315bn foreign debt.
Instead, Greece wants "Smart Debt Engineering" that would avoid the need to use a term such as a debt “haircut”, politically unacceptable in Germany and other creditor countries because it sounds to taxpayers like an outright loss.
Apparently a haircut is OK as long as it's not called a haircut!
Varoufakis seeks a “menu of debt swaps” to ease the burden, including two types of new bonds. The first type, indexed to nominal economic growth, would replace European rescue loans, and the second, which he termed “perpetual bonds”, would replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds.
Perpetual bonds: clearly never meant to be paid back. Gotta love the honesty of the idea.
ECB Nixes Plan Already
Today the European Central Bank Said "No" Latest Greek Bailout Plan.
Yanis Varoufakis, Greek finance minister, had proposed to
European officials that Athens raise €10bn by issuing short-term Treasury bills
as “bridge financing” to tide the country over for the next three months while
a new bailout is agreed with its eurozone partners.
But the ECB is unwilling to approve the debt sale. It will not raise a €15bn ceiling on t-bill issuance to $25bn as requested by Athens, according two officials involved in the deliberations. “The Greek plan relies fully on the ECB,” said another eurozone official briefed on the talks. “The ECB will play hardball.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, is expected to press Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, to ask for a “technical” extension of the current bailout when the two men meet in Brussels on Wednesday.
Eurozone finance ministers are expected to hold emergency talks in Brussels on February 11 to discuss Mr Varoufakis’s plans. The Greek finance minister is due to meet Mario Draghi, ECB president, in Frankfurt on Wednesday.
Officials who have met Mr Varoufakis say he has insisted the new government cannot ask for an extension for political reasons, since it would send a signal they are willing to go along with the current bailout — a message Mr Varoufakis reiterated at meeting on Monday in London with leading bankers.
But the ECB is unwilling to approve the debt sale. It will not raise a €15bn ceiling on t-bill issuance to $25bn as requested by Athens, according two officials involved in the deliberations. “The Greek plan relies fully on the ECB,” said another eurozone official briefed on the talks. “The ECB will play hardball.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, is expected to press Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, to ask for a “technical” extension of the current bailout when the two men meet in Brussels on Wednesday.
Eurozone finance ministers are expected to hold emergency talks in Brussels on February 11 to discuss Mr Varoufakis’s plans. The Greek finance minister is due to meet Mario Draghi, ECB president, in Frankfurt on Wednesday.
Officials who have met Mr Varoufakis say he has insisted the new government cannot ask for an extension for political reasons, since it would send a signal they are willing to go along with the current bailout — a message Mr Varoufakis reiterated at meeting on Monday in London with leading bankers.
Markets Giddy Over Greek
Debt Proposal
Even though no one has agreed to the Greek plan, the markets are giddy anyway, simply over the prospect of a settlement.
Even though no one has agreed to the Greek plan, the markets are giddy anyway, simply over the prospect of a settlement.
More
“It is difficult not to
marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If
there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic
scale."J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
At the Comex silver
depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 67.78 Moz, Eligible 110.26
Moz, Total 178.04 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
TransAsia Plane Hits Taxi Before Plunging Into River; 12 Killed
3:51 AM WET February
4, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- A TransAsia
Airways Corp. turboprop plane crashed into Keelung River near Taipei after
hitting a taxi, killing at least 12 people. It was the second accident in less
than a year for the Taiwanese airline.
Sixteen people were injured and
30 people are missing from Flight 235, Taipei City Government said today. There
were 53 people and five crew members on board. GE235 crashed at about 10:45
a.m. local time, Thomas Wang, a spokesman for the Aviation Safety Council said.
Two people in the taxi were injured when the plane collided, the government
said.
The plane lost contact after
takeoff, Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration said. Two tour groups from
mainland China with 31 members were aboard the ATR-72 aircraft, a propeller
plane made by Toulouse, France-based ATR.
Unconfirmed footage taken from a
dashboard-mounted camera of a vehicle showed the plane flying at an angle,
swerving close over a bridge, with one wing clipping the taxi and the railing
before plunging down into the river.
A TransAsia turboprop plane had
crashed in July last year, killing 48 people. That plane went down after the
pilots couldn’t find the runway seconds before their aircraft slammed on
Taiwan’s outlying Penghu islands, according to the accident report. Ten people survived
that crash, which was also an ATR 72 twin-engine turbo-propeller aircraft.
Last year was the deadliest year
for air travel since 2005 globally. Malaysia Airlines lost two Boeing Co. 777s
-- one thought to have disappeared in the Indian Ocean, and flight MH17
presumed shot down over Ukraine. Then last month, AirAsia Bhd. lost a plane in
Indonesia. The global annual toll was 884, according to safety consultant
Ascend Worldwide.
More
"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."
Hans F. Sennholz
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: +124 Down. NASDAQ: +220 Down. SP500: +178 Down.
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