Sunday 11 January 2015

Weekend Warning on Greece.



Baltic Dry Index. 709 -15    Brent Crude 50.11

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

Today, a very timely warning on a Greek bank “bail-in” from “Mish.” His whole update is well worth the read.

Another Run on Greek Banks Begins; Get Out While You Still Can; Buy Gold

Friday, January 09, 2015 1:34 AM
In November, Greeks withdrew €220 million from banks. In December, the figure soared to €3 billion.

My advice to Greeks is simple: Get out while you still can. That means now!

Via translation from Libre Mercardo, please consider ECB Threatens to Unleash the 'Banking Yard'

The term "banking yard" is in reference to what happened to Cyprus depositors. What follows is my translation of the article.

According to initial estimates, Greeks withdrew €3 billion from their bank accounts in December. €600 million of that total came on December 29, when Greece failed to elect a new president, thereby forcing national elections on January 25.

In comparison, November when net outflows totaled about €220 million.

The risk of bank runs in Greece is reactivated. In this sense, just remember that since 2010, when the crisis hit the euro, the Greek bank deposits dropped 37% but even after the rescue by the troika, deposits never recovered. This data demonstrates strong distrust by Greek depositors of the monetary union.
 
The Greek financial system is artificially sustained by the ECB, the lender of last resort. It survives because the ECB accepts junk debt (including Greek state bonds) as collateral. If the ECB were to cut support, the Greek banking simply would close and the government would set strict limits on the withdrawal of deposits.

On Thursday, the ECB said that its funding to the Greek banking system depends on the success of the current bailout program and a subsequent agreement in Athens with the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The rating agency Moody's also warned Thursday that the growing political uncertainty in Greece is damaging the liquidity of Greek banks, causing an outflow of deposits.

---- Get Out While You Still Can

ELA stands for Emergency Liquidity Assistance. It's not unlimited. Given the political environment, if the run on Greek banks picks up steam, the ECB may be unwilling to step in.

The important message to Greeks is get out now, while you still can. If this panic escalates, Greece may very well respond with capital controls, even before the election.

Those who do not get out while they can may suffer devastating consequences.

Get Out Where?

As the chart of deposits shows, the smart money left long ago and did not return. I don't know where it went, but all European banks are suspect.

If I were a Greek citizen, I would personally worry that any euro-denominated bank (not just Greek banks) would confiscate my money.

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 65.04 Moz, Eligible 108.55 Moz, Total 173.59 Moz.   

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.

DJIA: +138 Up. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +198 Down.  

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