Thursday, 8 January 2015

Oil – Is the Bottom In?



Baltic Dry Index. 744 -14    Brent Crude 51.27

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“The lowering of the oil and gas prices in combination with the sanctions, pushed by the Ukrainian crisis, will drop the Russian GDP by five percent per annum, and thus it will cause cutting of the Italian exports by about 50%.”

Romano Prodi, January 2015.


In the great 21st century oil rout, was yesterday a temporary [permanent]  blow-off bottom? If not, some serious traders think the floor is not too far away. The bad news is, that floor is all too near the “lift price” of most Yankee frackers. Few North American frackers can service their debt with West Texas Intermediate trading in the low 40s. At the well head, the price would be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Short Texas, short Canada, short Brazil, short Nigeria, short Angola, short Scotland. A great round of lay-offs and defaults lies directly ahead.

Renowned Trader Hall Sees $40 Oil ‘Absolute Price Floor’

Jan 8, 2015 2:35 AM GMT
Oil prices have almost bottomed out and “some recovery” is likely by the second half of the year as demand picks up, commodity hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall told investors.

Crude could trade in the $40-a-barrel range in 2015, close to “an absolute price floor,” the head of Astenbeck Capital Management wrote in a Jan. 2 letter obtained by Bloomberg News. A significant amount of U.S. and Canadian production can’t cover the cash costs of operating at that price, he said.

“Oil prices will stay under pressure in 2015,” he wrote. “However, current prices are not sustainable in the longer term. The interplay between extreme weakness in the short term and the potential for supply shortfalls in the medium term should create attractive trading opportunities over the course of the coming 12 months.”

Hall gained notoriety in 2009 after receiving a pay package of about $100 million while at Citigroup Inc., a bank that received government assistance during the financial crisis. For more than two decades he led Phibro LLC, which Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) bought from Citigroup. Founded in 2010, Astenbeck manages a total of $3 billion.  

----West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell below $50 a barrel this week for the first time in more than five years. WTI rose 1 percent to $49.11 at 1:21 p.m. today in Sydney. Prices fell 46 percent last year, as flagging demand forecasts met expanded output from North American shale formations.
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U.S. Oil Exports Jump to Record as Shale Production Booms

Jan 8, 2015 3:41 AM GMT
The U.S. exported a record amount of crude oil in November after a five-year run of production growth that has made the country the most oil-independent in 20 years.

Shipments surged 34 percent to average 502,000 barrels a day in November, the most on record dating back to 1920, data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Energy Information Administration show. The previous peak was 455,000 in March 1957. The U.S. is now the 17th-largest exporter.

The export record was unthinkable just five years ago, when U.S. crude production was still near a nadir after a 25-year decline. Since then, producers using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in underground shale rock have boosted output by 66 percent. Lawmakers in Washington are trying to end a 40-year-old law that restricts crude exports to just a few markets.

“This is something we never expected to see,” Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston, said yesterday by telephone. “You look back at 2008, 2009, domestic production was half what it is now. We’re not just passing a benchmark in exports, this is going to be a trend going forward.”

While exports of all grades of U.S. crude -- light, heavy and condensates from natural gas -- surged in November, those of light oil were largely responsible for the increase. They jumped to 430,739 barrels a day in November from 330,761 barrels the previous month. Light oil has a gravity measurement of at least 25 API. Heavy crude exports increased to 26,128 barrels a day in November from 17,505.
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In other news, the dying, wealth destroying, EUSSR stumbles on to its eventual breakup like the old unloved USSR.

"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.

Eurozone officially falls into deflation, piling pressure on ECB

Lower-than-expected figure come as European Central Bank considers a quantitative easing programme to jolt the economy into growth

The eurozone has officially slipped into deflation, after latest figures showed prices in December were 0.2pc lower than a year earlier.

The figure, far short of the European Central Bank's target of just under 2pc, is the latest pointer towards fresh intervention by the bank as it tries to prop up a sluggish economy.

Energy prices slumped 6.3pc compared to a year ago, driven by falling oil prices. The cost of industrial goods and food was flat while services rose 1.2pc. This is the first time the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009.

The ECB will meet on January 22 to consider whether to go beyond its existing stimulus measures and start buying sovereign bonds in a programme of quantitative easing.

ECB president Mario Draghi has dropped numerous hints that he hopes to push cash through the eurozone economy in this way, despite grumblings in Germany that such measures are outside the central bank’s mandate.

The euro, which reached a fresh nine-year low of $1.1842 before the figures were released, rose slightly after the announcement.

The currency has dropped from a high of $1.39 in May as the economic recovery in the United States diverged from the torpid eurozone.

The inflation figures follow German data on Monday showing that the currency bloc’s biggest member had experienced inflation of just 0.1pc in December, down from 0.5pc in the previous month and short of forecasts of 0.2pc.
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Italy Jobless Rate Rises to Record Amid Growth Outlook Concerns

By Lorenzo Totaro Jan 7, 2015 9:00 AM GMT
Italy’s unemployment rate increased more than forecast to a new high of 13.4 percent in November as companies failed to hire on concern the country’s longest recession on record isn’t about to end.

The jobless rate rose from a revised 13.3 percent in October, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The November reading is the highest since the quarterly series began in 1977. The median estimate of three economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unemployment rate of 13.3 percent in November.

---- The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 grew to a record 43.9 percent from 43.3 percent in October, today’s report showed.

On Dec. 24 Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s cabinet passed two decrees with labor regulations, including easier firing rules and protection for workers unjustly fired. The legislation is aimed at implementing a bill approved earlier in the month by the Rome-based Parliament.

Italy is struggling to emerge from its longest economic slump ever. Exports failed to offset the effect of weak domestic demand and falling investment in the three months through September, meaning the country’s gross domestic product contracted in 11 out of the last 13 quarters.
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German Unemployment Falls to Record Low on Strengthening Economic Recovery

By Alessandro Speciale Jan 7, 2015 8:55 AM GMT
German unemployment fell for a third month in December to a record low, signaling that growth in Europe’s largest economy will accelerate in 2015.

The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 27,000 to 2.841 million in December, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. Economists predicted a decline of 5,000, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate dropped to 6.5 percent, the lowest level in records going back more than two decades.

After Germany’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in the middle of 2014, recovering sentiment among entrepreneurs and investors supports forecasts that growth will accelerate this year. A slump in oil prices and a weaker euro could prove a boon for consumers and exporters, and the European Central Bank is weighing large-scale government-bond purchases as additional stimulus.
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EU’s Biggest Coal Group Plans Job Cuts, Mine Closures to Survive

Jan 7, 2015 11:00 PM GMT
Kompania Weglowa SA, the European Union’s biggest coal producer, will cut jobs, close mines and get financial aid from state-owned power utilities after the Polish government backed a rescue plan for its third-largest employer.

Poland wants to “gradually’ phase out operations at state-owned Kompania’s four mines, sell one to coal trader Weglokoks SA and move its remaining nine profitable facilities to a new holding company, the Economy Ministry said on its website. State-owned power producers and Weglokoks are already in talks to buy stakes in the new group. Poland estimates that as many 4,800 jobs may be redundant under the plan, which will cost the budget 2.3 billion zloty ($631 million) through 2016.

‘‘The time to talk has passed, now it’s time to take action,” Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz said at a news conference after a cabinet meeting yesterday. “The alternative solution to the program could only be Kompania’s bankruptcy.”

Poland, which relies on coal for 90 percent of its electricity production, has been under growing pressure to overhaul the industry after its two biggest producers last year failed to sell bonds to finance operations. Kompania, which produces a fourth of the EU’s hard coal and employs 50,000 people, has struggled to survive as sluggish economic growth cut demand for the fuel and sent prices to a seven-year low.
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Finally, in the continent made for tanks, It already looks like the Greeks have won.

German Lawmakers Say Greek Debt Talks Possible After Vote

Jan 7, 2015 8:05 PM GMT
Germany is leaving the door open to discussing debt relief with Greece’s next government, lawmakers in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition said, signaling a more flexible stance than her administration has taken publicly.

While writing off Greek debt isn’t on the table, talks on easing the repayment terms on aid that Greece received from European governments are possible after the country’s parliamentary elections on Jan. 25, the lawmakers from Germany’s two biggest governing parties said. The condition is that Greece sticks to its austerity commitments, they said.

The potential opening reflects scenarios under discussion in Merkel’s coalition for how to respond if Greek voters oust Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, a Merkel ally who has enforced German-led demands for austerity, and elect anti-austerity leader Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party.

“There should be talks with any government that emerges from the election,” Ingrid Arndt-Brauer, a Social Democrat who chairs the lower house’s finance committee, said in an interview. “You can talk about extending maturities and easing the interest rate on loans with a left-wing government, too.”

A senior lawmaker from Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union said Germany will talk with any elected Greek government, including about an easing of aid conditions, as long as Greece doesn’t renege on its austerity commitments. The lawmaker asked not to be named because coalition discussions are private.
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Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.

EUSSR, with apologies to Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 65.04 Moz, Eligible 110.49 Moz, Total 175.53 Moz.   

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Not the usual suspects today, just a good news story that needs no commentary from me.

First new antibiotic in 30 years discovered in major breakthrough

The discovery of Teixobactin could pave the way for a new generation of antibiotics because of the way it was discovered.

The first new antibiotic to be discovered in nearly 30 years has been hailed as a ‘paradigm shift’ in the fight against the growing resistance to drugs.

Teixobactin has been found to treat many common bacterial infections such as tuberculosis, septicaemia and C. diff, and could be available within five years.

But more importantly it could pave the way for a new generation of antibiotics because of the way it was discovered.

Scientists have always believed that the soil was teeming with new and potent antibiotics because bacteria have developed novel ways to fight off other microbes.

But 99 per cent of microbes will not grow in laboratory conditions leaving researchers frustrated that they could not get to the life-saving natural drugs.

Now a team from Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts, have discovered a way of using an electronic chip to grow the microbes in the soil and then isolate their antibiotic chemical compounds.

They discovered that one compound, Teixobactin, is highly effective against common bacterial infections Clostridium difficile, Mycobacterium tuberculous and Staphylococcus aureus.

Professor Kim Lewis, Director of the Antimicrobial Discovery Centre said: “Apart from the immediate implementation, there is also I think a paradigm shift in our minds because we have been operating on the basis that resistance development is inevitable and that we have to focus on introducing drugs faster than resistance

“Teixobactin shows how we can adopt an alternative strategy and develop compounds to which bacteria are not resistant.”

The first antibiotic Penicillin, was discovered by Alexander Fleming in 1928 and more than 100 compounds have been found since, but no new class has been found since 1987.

----The World Health Oganisation has also classified antimicrobial resistance as a "serious threat’ to every region of the world which ‘has the potential to affect anyone, of any age, in any country"

However the new discovery offers hope that many new antibiotics could be found to fight bacterial infections.

Crucially, the scientists believe that bacteria will not become resistant to Teixobactin for at least 30 years because of its multiple methods of attack.

Testing on mice has already shown that the antibiotic works well at clearing infections, without side-effects. The team is now concentrating on upscaling production so that it could be tested in humans.

“Right now we can deliver a dose that cures mice and a variety of models of infection and we can deliver 10 mg per kg so it correlates well with human usage,” added Professor Lewis.

The breakthrough was heralded by scientists who said it could prove a ‘game-changer’ in the struggle against antimicrobial resistance.  
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.

DJIA: +138 Up. NASDAQ: +247 Down. SP500: +198 Down.  

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