Baltic Dry Index. 770 +17 Brent Crude 48.85
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Set in German Euroland, Arthur and Guinevere have a daughter. At the Blessing of Princess Europa, Central Bankster Draghi arrives and sets an evil curse on the child, forcing the child into paying off all of Europe’s debt….
With apologies to Richard Gauntlett.
http://www.panto-scripts.co.uk/html/pantomime-script.html
Draghi Day has arrived. It is time for the ECB to fulfil Mr Markets wildest
expectations. Having painted itself into a corner, the ECB must now put up and
deliver a massive QE program over German misgivings and ignoring their courts,
any failure to deliver will now set off a massive rout in stock markets. Never
mind that QE now is probably too little too late, or that it sends a signal to
Greek voters that they can now get easier terms too. The “Deutsche Mark” euro
is about to become the Club Med euro. In the central bankster wars, the ECB is
supposed to confirm today that they are a fully committed participant in the
race to the fiat currency bottom. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and
silver. There is a reason that the Dutch and Germans are returning their
physical gold from New York and Paris.
In central banking as in diplomacy,
style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count
greatly, and results far much less.
J. K. Galbraith.
ECB readies to unleash €1.1 trillion stimulus in to the eurozone
Central bank is mulling €50bn-per-month QE for the ailing eurozone economy
The European Central Bank is
preparing to pump up to €50bn (£39bn) a month into the eurozone, according to
reports, sending markets into a spin.
The size of the monthly
bond-buying stimulus, expected to be announced on Thursday, could total as much
as €1.1 trillion (£840bn), as part of a rescue package intended to boost the
euro area economies and combat falling price growth. The sum would be more
twice the amount that had been expected by analysts.
It would mark a historic moment
for the ECB, following the lead of the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve
who between them pumped almost £2.9 trillion into the financial system in a
bout of post-financial crisis quantitative easing.
Speculation of a QE easing scheme
by the ECB of such magnitude led the euro to fall sharply on Wednesday,
dropping by 0.65pc against the dollar to $1.1565 within minutes of it emerging.
At the same time, sovereign bond yields slipped, as the price of gold hovered
around the $1,300 mark.
European stock markets climbed
into positive territory on the news, having spent most of the trading day in
the red. The FTSE 100 rose to its highest levels since December, ending 1.63pc
higher in London. France’s Cac added 0.55pc while Germany’s Dax closed 0.3pc
up.
Meanwhile, Canada’s central bank
made a shock decision to cut its interest rates, following similar moves by
Swiss, Danish and Turkish officials to prepare their economies for a rush of
ECB-provided liquidity.
The eurozone has slid into
deflation, with prices falling by 0.2pc in the year to December according to
the latest data. Economists fear that deflation may become entrenched if the
ECB does not act swiftly to support the currency bloc.
More
ECB Seeks to Inject Up to 1.1 Trillion Euros Into Economy in Deflation Fight
Jan 21,
2015 5:12 PM GMT
Mario Draghi called
on the European Central Bank to make its biggest push yet to fend off
deflation and revive the economy by unleashing a debt-buying spree of 1.1
trillion euros ($1.3 trillion). The ECB president and his Executive Board proposed spending 50 billion euros a month through December 2016, two euro-area central-bank officials said. The plan still faces a tense debate in the Governing Council and may change before the final decision on Thursday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
By
urging Fed-style quantitative easing, Draghi is remodeling the ECB as an
aggressive central bank that will take risks even against the wishes of Germany, the
region’s biggest economy. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and Executive
Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger have argued QE isn’t needed and reduces the
incentive of governments to make structural reforms.
More
“There’s danger in just shoveling out money to people who say, ‘My life is a little harder than it used to be, at a certain place you’ve got to say to the people, ‘Suck it in and cope, buddy. Suck it in and cope.’”
Proper Charlie Munger.
At the Comex silver
depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 66.46 Moz, Eligible 109.17
Moz, Total 175.63 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
In oil news, OPEC is going to blink first, says
Bloomie.
Aw,
you can come up with statistics to prove anything, Draghi. Forty percent of all
people on Bloomberg know that.
With
apologies to Homer Simpson.
OPEC Will Blink First in Battle With Shale Drillers, Poll Shows
Jan 22, 2015 12:00 AM GMT
U.S. shale drillers won’t scale
back output quickly enough for OPEC to avoid production cuts this year,
according to a quarterly poll of Bloomberg subscribers.
Forty-nine percent of analysts,
traders and investors surveyed said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries will have to lower its production target this year, while 34 percent
said shale drillers will lower output in time. Seventeen percent weren’t sure.
Fifty-eight
percent of respondents who said OPEC will cut its production target expect it
to happen in the second half of the year, compared to 34 percent who see it
happening before the end of June. The poll of 481 investors, analysts and
traders who are Bloomberg subscribers was conducted Jan. 14-15 by Selzer &
Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus
4.5 percentage points.
Oil Drops as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Exacerbating Global Glut
Jan 22, 2015 5:14 AM GMT
Oil fell amid forecasts for U.S. crude inventories to expand for a second
week, bolstering speculation that the global supply glut that spurred the
market’s collapse may persist. Futures dropped as much as 1.2 percent in New York. Stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably gained by 2.7 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before government data on Thursday. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, said it needs to boost output and exports to compensate for lower prices.
Oil slumped almost 50 percent last year as the U.S. pumped crude at the fastest rate in more than three decades and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to reduce production. Prices will rebound rather than extend declines to as low as $20 a barrel, the group’s Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said in Davos, Switzerland.
“The consensus view is that there’s about a 2 million barrel-a-day supply overhang at the moment,” Ric Spooner, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “When we start seeing cuts, we’ll see an immediate response to forward prices, assuming it’s a significant reduction.”
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery decreased as much as 55 cents to $47.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $47.39 at 12:54 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose $1.31 to $47.78 on Wednesday. The volume of all futures traded was about 37 percent below the 100-day average.
Brent for March settlement slid as much as 43 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $48.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It climbed $1.04 to $49.03 on Wednesday. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $1.46 to WTI.
----U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased to 390.5 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 16, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts before the Energy Information Administration’s report. Supplies in the prior period were more than 9 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.
The nation produced 9.19 million barrels a day through Jan. 9, the most in weekly records dating back to January 1983, said the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.
More
Gold Prices Get a Boost While Oil Spirals Downwards
Jan 22, 2015 4:44 AM GMT
Gold’s relationship to oil has been turned on its head. Investors who saw little value in the metal last month, as plunging energy costs curbed inflation, have started buying in January even as crude continues to tumble. Bullion is off to its best start to a year since 1980 while West Texas Intermediate is trading near the lowest since April 2009. The correlation between the two commodities that reached a 16-month high in December is now the weakest in five months.
The about-face reflects an investor shift in focus away from the benefits of cheap fuel to the risk of economy-damaging deflation. Oil costs are so low that gold buyers are seeking a hedge against prolonged declines in consumer prices. They’re also bracing for currency volatility from more stimulus measures as policy makers in Europe and Asia look for new ways to revive growth. While the U.S. is expanding, the World Bank says that won’t be enough to buoy economies elsewhere.
“It’s clear that potential dislocation of what the falling oil prices may do to the market is bringing people to gold,” Quincy Krosby, a market strategist based in Newark, New Jersey, at Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees more than $1 trillion in assets, said by phone Jan. 14. “Worries about political instability because of falling oil prices and attempts to induce inflation are helping gold. Some of my investors are moving to gold.”
Gold futures climbed 9.2 percent in January to $1,293.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest monthly gain in three years. The increased appeal of haven assets has boosted silver futures in New York 17 percent this month, also is off its best start since 1980.
More
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: +138 Up. NASDAQ:
+247 Down. SP500: +198 Down.
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