Baltic Dry Index. 1073 -04
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
You
only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do
too many things wrong.
Warren
Buffett.
Today we are spoiled with choice, wherever we look
we signs of an imminent implosion. Stay long gold and take advantage of cut
rate dips. We open first with dying Europe, the euro is on borrowed time. But
The Telegraph’s headline writer has it all wrong. It’s not President Putin that
“leaves Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined,” it’s
Chancellor Merkel’s foolish decision to impose sanctions on Russia in some sort
of lunatic attempt to bail out America’s War Party’s botched coup in Kiev. In
addition the fallout was thoroughly foreseeable, which prudent German voters
already know by voting AfD. Shame about
Uncle Scam stealing Germany’s gold though. They worked hard after the second
world war to accumulate it legitimately.
Below. how do you spell crash in German, French,
and Italian?
If
all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
J. K.
Galbraith.
Putin leaves Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined
Surveys of the German manufacturing sector have slumped to their weakest levels since June 2013, as tensions over Russia and Ukraine weigh on production
Key gauges of Germany
manufacturing slumped in September, falling to a 15-month low as ongoing
tensions over Ukraine weighed on the sector.
Markit’s purchasing managers’
index (PMI) for the sector dropped to 50.3, from 51.4 a month earlier. The
reading is barely above 50, implying that the sector is expanding, but slowly.
No analyst polled by Reuters
expected a number this bad.
The most pessimistic expert
forecast that the PMI figure would fall to 51, while the average analyst
believed Germany’s PMI would drop to 51.2.
Germany’s factories are
particularly exposed to any conflict between Russia and its neighbours, as well
as the tit-for-tat sanctions exchanged between Russia and the EU.
Measures of new orders also
slipped for a fourth consecutive month, pointing to a further slowdown ahead.
“Weak manufacturing data have
become one of the most conspicuous features of the fragility of a broad-based
recovery”, said Oliver Kolodseike, economist at Markit.
Germany’s dominant service sector
will be increasingly relied upon to deliver growth. The sector’s PMI reading
rose to 55.4 in September, a rise of 0.5 points on the previous month.
“September’s flash PMI results
paint a mixed picture of the health of the German economy at the end of the
third quarter”, said Mr Kolodseike. Markit expects German GDP to rise by just
0.4pc in the quarter.
More
Germany's Ukip threatens to paralyse eurozone rescue efforts
Alternative für Deutschland has swept through Germany like a tornado, winning 12.6pc of the vote in Brandenburg and 10.6pc in Thuringia
The stunning rise of Germany’s
anti-euro party threatens to paralyse efforts to hold the eurozone together and
may undermine any quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, Standard
& Poor’s has warned.
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
has swept through Germany like a tornado, winning 12.6pc of the vote in
Brandenburg and 10.6pc in Thuringia a week ago. The party has broken into three
regional assemblies, after gaining its first platform in Strasbourg with seven
euro-MPs.
The rating agency said AfD’s
sudden surge has become a credit headache for the whole eurozone, forcing
Chancellor Angela Merkel to take a tougher line in European politics and
risking an entirely new phase of the crisis. “Until recently, no openly
Eurosceptic party in Germany has been able to galvanise opponents of European
'bail-outs’. But this comfortable position now appears to have come to an end,”
it said.
The report warned that AfD has
upset the chemistry of German politics, implying even greater resistance to any
loosening of EMU fiscal rules. It raises the political bar yet further for
serious QE, and therefore makes the tool less usable.
----Mrs Merkel has a threat akin to Ukip on her right flank, and can no longer pivot in the centre ground of German politics. AfD has almost destroyed the centre-Right Free Democrats (FDP), and is also eating into the far-Left of the Linke party.
The new movement calls for an
“orderly break-up” of monetary union, either by dividing the euro into smaller
blocs or by returning to national currencies.
More
French private sector output falls again in September
By Investing.comEconomic IndicatorsSep
23, 2014 07:10AM GMT
Investing.com
- Private sector activity in France fell for the fifth consecutive month in
September, as service sector output declined for the first time in three
months, offsetting a slower decline in manufacturing output, according to data
released on Tuesday.
Research group Markit reported
that the preliminary reading of the French services purchasing managers’ index
fell to a three month low of 49.4 from 50.3 in August, compared to expectations
for a reading of 50.1.
The French manufacturing PMI rose
to a four month high of 47.9 this month from 45.8 in August, but remained below
the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. Economists had expected a
reading of 47.0.
The French composite output
index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service
sectors fell to a three month low of 49.1 from 49.5 in August.
More
Air France Weighs Scrapping Low-Cost Push Under Weight of Strike
Sep 23, 2014 12:23 PM GMT
Air France-KLM Group Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac said the
carrier may be forced to scrap a plan to expand its low-cost Transavia unit as
it fails to quell the worst pilot strike since 1998. “If we’re not able to reach an agreement we’ll be forced, with a heavy heart, to withdraw the project,” de Juniac said, speaking on France Inter radio today about the plan to beef up Transavia to 100 planes by 2017. “It’s a pity.”
The main pilot union yesterday rejected the CEO’s offer to delay an expansion of Transavia as a “smokescreen” and called on members to demonstrate near parliament at 2:30 p.m. today. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has called for an end to the labor action, saying “it is not understood by the French.”
Air France management yesterday said that they were prepared to curtail the expansion of low-cost unit outside France and the Netherlands until the end of the year. About 60 percent of Air France pilots have been off the job since last Monday, causing an operating loss of as much as 20 million euros ($25.7 million) a day.
More
Putin Billionaire’s Assets Frozen in Italy Over Sanctions
Sep 23, 2014 1:51 PM GMT
Italy froze luxury
properties belonging to Arkady Rotenberg, a Russian billionaire on the European
Union’s sanctions list over the war in Ukraine for being one of President Vladimir Putin’s
“cronies.” The assets are worth as much as 28 million euros ($36 million) and include the Berg Luxury hotel in Rome and properties in Sardinia, according to an Italian finance police official who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak to the press.
The EU and U.S. have targeted individuals and companies to punish Russia for its annexation of Crimea in March and its role in the pro-Russian insurgency in easternmost Ukraine. The Kremlin denies arming or financing the rebels. Rotenberg is a boyhood friend and former judo partner of Putin who made his fortune in part through supply contracts with state-run OAO Gazprom, the world’s largest gas producer.
“It’s surprising that in the current case we’re talking about real estate, as the sanctions shouldn’t apply to it,” Rotenberg told the Russian news service Interfax today in comments confirmed by his spokesman. “This once again demonstrates the illegitimacy and absurdity of this situation.”
More
Mechel Extends Record Drop as Russia Expects Bankruptcy
Sep 23, 2014 12:27 PM GMT
OAO Mechel
(MTL) extended its declines today after Russia’s economy minister said he
saw no alternative to bankruptcy for the mining company following nine months
of unsuccessful efforts to refinance its debt. Mechel, Russia’s biggest producer of coking coal, tumbled 37 percent to an all-time low of 17.3 rubles by 2:28 p.m. in Moscow, bringing the two-day slump to 51 percent. The stock has plunged 74 percent this year as falling prices for the coal used in steel-making led to a record loss in 2013. The company has about $8.7 billion of bonds and loans due in the next seven years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Analysts estimate the company will lose $591 million in 2014.
The stock tumbled after Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, speaking to reporters at an investment forum on Sept. 20, said “if the company is bankrupt, we should legally acknowledge it” and that he sees “no other way out.” While Russian banks own most of Mechel’s debt, international sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict have further eroded demand for their debt from U.S. and European investors.
“Everything is simple -- government officials have spoken about the company’s potential bankruptcy for the first time, before that everyone was sure that the company will be saved by any means,” Vladimir Tsuprov, the St. Petersburg-based chief investment officer of TKB BNP Paribas, said by e-mail today. “We haven’t been investors in Mechel for a long time. Based on financial metrics, the company has been bankrupt for a long time.”
----Andrey Kostin,
chief executive officer of VTB Group, Russia’s second-biggest lender, spoke
at the investment forum in favor of swapping Mechel’s debt into equity or
seeking bankruptcy for the company if management disagrees with that option,
the Interfax news agency reported on Sept. 19. Mechel has rejected the plan, he
said.
More
And in America, land of the listened too, spied on,
and military style police between the shinning seas, complacency rules. What
could possibly go wrong?
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J. K. Galbraith.
Yellen Warns on Market Calm Before ’Considerable Time’ Up
Sep 24, 2014 5:00 AM GMT
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says she wants investors to be prepared
for the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than they
currently project. Her words are going unheeded. Volatility across stocks, bonds and currencies worldwide is close to record or multi-year lows, even after Yellen cautioned last week that the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” could change if U.S. economic performance continues to exceed expectations.
This absence of wide swings in trading values reflects investor complacency about the central bank’s intentions -- and may be too much of a good thing for its policy makers as they consider retreating from years of low-rate pledges that suppressed borrowing costs and fueled a recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
The danger: unexpected economic strength may speed up the timetable for tighter Fed policy, prompting a sudden surge in volatility that could jeopardize the expansion.
“The risk is that the Fed ultimately does tighten policy in the way that it’s expecting and is communicating, and markets have to adjust up very quickly in a disorderly way,” said Laura Rosner, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York and a former New York Fed researcher.
More
As for China, the Wobble grows. When does a wobble
become topple, and a hard landing?
“Call
it the Goldman Sachs test. If this is something Goldman would do to its
clients, don't do it."
Felix
Salmon.
Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecast sharply
September 23, 2014, 10:49 PM ET
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday
slashed it outlook for China’s economic growth next year, down to 7.1% from a
previous 7.6% projection.
The Goldman Sachs team cited
“recently completed research on potential growth and the output gap across
Asia,” adding that they saw “a likely reduction in the government’s growth
target next year reducing the pressure for aggressive policy easing.”
However, they also kept their
2014 forecast at 7.3%.
China’s gross domestic product
rose 7.5% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, meeting the
government’s current growth target.
Longer term, Goldman Sachs said
that “in a best-reasonable-case scenario, China’s potential growth would
gradually slow to just over 7% over the next five years,” with the bank
predicting a slide to 6.7% GDP growth by 2017.
They also trimmed their inflation
outlook, calling for “just over 2%” gains in consumer prices over the near term
More
“There are some bored foreigners,
with full stomachs, who have nothing better to do than point fingers at us
[China]. First, China doesn’t export revolution; second, China doesn’t export
hunger and poverty; third, China doesn’t come and cause you headaches, what
more is there to be said?”
President Xi Jinping
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 66.21 Moz,
Eligible 118.13 Moz, Total 184.34 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Suddenly the sky is falling on Tesco. Just how bad
is bad? Getting profits wrong by a quarter of a billion Pounds due to implied
incompetence or dishonesty, calls into question all of the other figures and
assumptions. Has anyone tested Tesco’s meat lately? I suspect that this is only
the tip of an iceberg emerging. Where’s
the beef?
Below, trouble hits UK retailing and food
companies, if artificial sweeteners can be classified as food. How do you spell
crash in English?
Only when the tide
goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
Warren Buffett.
City Diary: Tesco mothballs £22m Cambridgeshire store costing 250 jobs
Every little helps: Tesco decided to hoard up its soon-to-open £22m megastore in Chatteris just hours after a Tesco whistleblower exposed the retailer's £250m black hole.
Tesco seems to have heeded Diary’s advice about reining in its spending on new stores in the light of its serious accounting difficulties.The grocer has “mothballed” its £22m store in Chatteris in Cambridgeshire, just weeks before the 46,177 sq ft site was due to open.
Bryn Woodward, Tesco’s corporate affairs manager, dropped the bombshell to Florrie Newell, a local councillor, at the weekend – hours after a whistleblower altered the grocer’s general counsel to the £250m black-hole in the retailer’s finances.
Newell is “absolutely furious”, she told the local press, because the Tesco store is already complete – bar the interior fittings – after workmen reconfigured a riverbed, put in a new underpass, and installed a “disgusting” roundabout. Indeed, Diary’s moles say the roadworks were only completed last weekend.
Osprey, a private equity group that invests in supermarkets on behalf of private investors, completed the “forward funding” of the £22m superstore last August, thanks to £9.1m of equity from high net worth investors, and £12.2m of debt secured from Barclays Bank.
Tesco has pre-let the store from
Osprey on an unbroken 25-year lease linked to retail price inflation.
But, given Deloitte and
Freshfields’ ongoing investigation into Tesco’s financial failings, Tesco is
unlikely to remove the hoardings surrounding the abandoned megastore any time
soon.
This is a bad blow to the area’s
employment prospects: the Chatteris store would have created 250 jobs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/citydiary/11115765/City-Diary-Tesco-mothballs-22m-Cambridgeshire-store-costing-250-jobs.html
Where's the Beef - YouTube
Mothercare to close a quarter of shops after £100m rights issue
Mothercare shares fall as it unveils £100m rights issue to fund turnaround
Mothercare is to close a quarter
of its shops in the UK after launching a £100m rights issue to fund a
turnaround of the business.
The baby clothing and equipment
retailer has asked shareholders for £100m to fund store closures, store
refurbishments, a revamps of its IT systems and the repayment of debt.
The company has struggled in the
last few years as it has lost sales to online rivals, department stores, and
supermarkets.
Alan Parker, chairman, said the
fundraising is a "pivotal step" for Mothercare and will help the UK
business return to profitablity
More
Phones 4u to Fire 1,700 Staff, Close 362 Stores Amid Sales
Sep 23, 2014 8:41 AM GMT
Phones 4u Ltd.’s administrator said it will close 362 stores and cut almost
1,700 jobs as the failed U.K. mobile-phone chain sells off its assets to pay
bondholders and salaries. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, which was appointed administrator last week, said the sale of an additional 198 shops and 160 concessions to former carrier partners EE Ltd., Vodafone Group Plc and retailer Dixons Carphone Plc (DC/) has been approved by the courts, the company said in a statement yesterday. The buyers will take on about 2,000 staff members.
The company is selling stores and inventory and cutting employees after EE and Vodafone said they wouldn’t renew their contracts with the store, depriving the retailer of the source of 90 percent of the plans it sells.
Phones 4u’s 9.5 percent notes, which slumped to 18.6 pence on Sept. 15, were quoted at 37.5 pence at 8.33 in London today.
PwC said it would keep 720 people to assist with the closings in the short term. The company said on Sept. 19 that it had cut 628 employees who worked at the head office and in sales, and retained 400 to assist the administrators.
More
Tate & Lyle shares plunge on profit warning
Tate & Lyle says supply chain problems caused by the severe winter weather in the US earlier this year will lead to lower profits
Shareholders in Tate & Lyle
lost their sweet tooth on Tuesday morning as shares tumbled 17pc off the back
of its second profit warning this year and the company was forced to order an
urgent review of its supply chain.
The food company said the knock-on
impact of severe and prolonged winter weather in the US at the start of this
year had continued to affect its global supply chain. It also blamed the profit
warning on increased competition in one of its key markets, for its Splenda
Sucralose artificial sweetener.
But analysts hit out at the
company, which sold its sugar business in 2010 and now concentrates on
ingredients such as sweeteners and stabilisers, as the warning comes just two
months after a previous trading statement. One analyst, Alicia Forry of
Canaccord Genuity, questioned management's "communication decisions over
the last six months".
Tate & Lyle warned that the
combined effects of the supply chain problems and rising competition would lead
to adjusted profit before tax to be in the range of £95m-£105m in the first
half, while it is now forecasting full-year profits in the region of
£230m-£245m, a signficant reduction from £322m a year earlier.
The group's revised full-year
guidance is more than 20pc lower than current consensus forecasts. The revision
marked the company's second profits warning this calendar year.
More
Should
you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing
vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.
Warren
Buffett.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished Aug.
DJIA: +152 Down. NASDAQ: +312 Down. SP500: +231 Down.
Какие бананы категорически нельзя есть детям и взрослым
ReplyDeletehttps://www.druzer.com/read-blog/145_kakie-banany-kategoricheski-nelzya-est-detyam-i-vzroslym.html
Бананы – одни из самых популярных фруктов среди украинского покупателя. Их любят от мала до велика.