Wednesday 10 September 2014

Saving The Union.



Baltic Dry Index. 1197  +31  

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

What good is a new born Scotland?

Cameron, Clegg and Miliband, with apologies to Benjamin Franklin.

The 1707 Union is saved!!! In a dramatic panicky surrender to Scotland yesterday, Prime Minister “U-turn” Cameron is going to fly St Andrew's flag above No 10 for the duration, while 3 useless leaders of the Westminster bubble are going to parachute into Scotland today to join in Gordon's last stand in Glasgow. In an effort to look socialist and avoid a lynching, Mr Cameron is borrowing a shabby suit from Mr Milliband. All four mouseketeers are then going to take on all comers and convince the Scotch to become good little Englanders and vote “No” next Thursday.  After their one day outing to Bonnie Scotland, three of the four mouseketeers will return to civilisation and the safety of London, while the fourth will return to eternal obscurity in Fife. What could possibly go wrong?

Plan B. The Scotch Football team will switch managers with the England Football team, who will be renamed Scotland Lite, and every taxpayer south of Newcastle will donate a tenner to the "save the Scots from the Scotch," campaign. In future matches between the teams, Scotland Lite will spot Scotland 3 goals and not field a goalkeeper. When in world cup qualifying, team Scotland has to face the dreaded Faeroe Islands football team, Scotland Lite will lend them a goalie and striker.

Plan C. All of the UK will be renamed Scotland. Parliament to sit in sackcloth in the Willow Tea Rooms, 217 Sauchiehall Street, Glasgow, Mondays. Wednesdays, and Fridays. Piped bagpipe music compulsory in all UK, sorry Scottish elevators. “Strictly Come Dancing” to be replaced with Strictly Come Scottish Dancing, with an Andy Stewart impersonator as host.

The Union is saved! Saved! Saved for Good Queen Bess and Prince George.

Snag. Without consulting the 80 percent of English British voters, Scotland and the Scotch are to be bribed with "Independence Lite," and yet more English cash forever. The EVs, to say the least, are highly likely to be quite antsy come the general election in May 2015.
Hollywood couldn't make this sort of comedy up. Still it’s good news for those pesky Russians in the Ukraine. A perfect blueprint for President "Putin the Terrible," scourge of the neo-con Yanks. 

Below, Westminster’s Black Tuesday. Pounds anyone? Euros? Gold?

The UK Government has said that Scotland could end up as a Third World country if they vote for independence.

I don't know if things will improve to that extent, but you never know.

Stay with us: David Cameron's desperate plea to Scots

Prime Minister warns that independence is a 'leap in the dark' that will punish future generations

By Peter Dominiczak, Peter Spence and Simon Johnson 11:54PM BST 09 Sep 2014
David Cameron has said that he “desperately” wants Scotland to remain in the UK, as he warned that independence is a “leap in the dark” that will punish future generations.

In his most significant intervention in the campaign to keep Scotland in the Union, the Prime Minister directly appealed to voters north of the border and said that nobody in the UK wanted “this family of nations to be ripped apart”.

He paid an emotional tribute to the achievements over the centuries of the “special alchemy” of the United Kingdom which can “smash expectations”.

“The United Kingdom is a precious and special country”, Mr Cameron said. “That is what is at stake — so let no one in Scotland be in any doubt: We desperately want you to stay; we do not want this family of nations to be ripped apart.”

Mr Cameron’s appeal came as the world’s biggest banks and financial experts warned of disastrous economic consequences for the UK if Scotland votes for independence.
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Scottish independence: Gordon Brown close to tears in emotional defence of UK-wide NHS

Former prime minister cites how NHS saved his sight and cared for his dying daughter in passionate speech rebuking SNP's healthcare 'lie'

Gordon Brown came close to tears as he spoke about his daughter's death in a passionate speech rallying against the SNP's healthcare "lie".

The former prime minister's voice cracked as he cited how NHS staff saved his sight and nursed his baby daughter in hospital as he professed a "love" for public health care.

In a surprisingly personal address to Labour activists in Glasgow, Mr Brown used his NHS connections to dismiss the idea that Scotland's health service is slipping towards privatisation under Westminster rule.
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Scots Independence Genie Fires Separatist Dreams of EU Statehood

Sep 10, 2014 12:01 AM GMT
A short walk from Edinburgh Castle, past tourist stores hawking kilts and tartan scarves, a church hall is about to become a patch of Barcelona for the day.

As Scotland votes next week on whether to break up the U.K. after more than three centuries, a group of about 100 Catalans will gather to watch the outcome unfold and ponder the implications for their own bid for freedom from Spain.

“I get goose bumps just thinking about it,” said Raquel Gella, 25, a Catalan marketing manager who has lived in Scotland for five years after arriving as a student. “Who has the chance to see history made in two countries?”

The Catalan interest is just the tip of the iceberg. Whether Scots choose to remain in the U.K. or call time on the 307-year-old union with England and Wales, the vote has already proved to separatists from Flanders to Venice that the dream of taking control of their own futures has a chance of becoming reality.

If the political spirits of the 18th and 19th centuries were dedicated to forging larger sovereign states, the referendum has opened up an alternative vision for the 21st century in which smaller national groups dismantle them. That reshaping of the map has ramifications for governments, finances, international relations, companies and investors.

The pound dropped to the weakest since November against the dollar yesterday after polls showed the pro-independence campaign in Scotland had wiped out the No camp’s long-standing advantage, leaving the result too close to call. In Spain, bonds fell, with 10-year yields rising the most since May.

“The symbolic value of what is going to happen in Scotland is very important,” said Gerolf Annemans, president of Vlaams Belang, a Flemish party calling for Flanders to secede from Belgium. “Marching toward independence and the reshuffling of the older nation states is a logical evolution, and Scotland, Catalonia and Flanders are pieces of that new Europe.”

The Scottish vote has sharpened the divide in Europe between competing schools of thought. One says that globalization and a hyper-connected world mean the continent should consign cultural and ethnic tensions to history. The other says the European Union is exactly the framework in which regions and provinces can assert their identities and thrive.

That would mean “a Europe of peoples and regions where the Bavarians can be Bavarians instead of Germans,” Ibon Areso, the mayor of Bilbao, the economic capital of Spain’s Basque region, said in an interview. “A Europe that is more a Europe within which different identities can live together more easily.”
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Elsewhere, in Scotland Without as it were, all the news was trifling.

Obama Said to Seek Billions Extra for Islamic State Fight

Sep 9, 2014 11:27 PM GMT
President Barack Obama is preparing to ask Congress to pay for a multibillion-dollar plan to expand the military campaign against Islamic State militants, according to an administration official.

While the proposal hasn’t been made final and the total amount is still being calculated, it will likely be in the billions of dollars, as Pentagon officials develop options for the president, according to the official, who asked for anonymity to discuss plans that aren’t yet public.

Obama is scheduled to deliver a televised address to the nation at 9 p.m. Washington time tomorrow to lay out his strategy to defeat the extremist group Islamic State, which has captured swaths of Syria and Iraq.
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Cheney Seeks to Steer Party to Pro-Military Candidate

Sep 9, 2014 6:49 PM GMT
Former Vice President Dick Cheney is re-emerging as a critic of White House foreign policy and, Republicans say, signaling interest in steering the party toward a 2016 presidential nominee who identifies with a pro-military posture.

Cheney, who gave a brief speech to House Republicans at a private meeting today on Capitol Hill, expressed “tremendous skepticism” toward President Barack Obama’s foreign policy, said Representative Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican. Cole said Republicans maintain that Obama has a disengaged approach that has let tensions in the Middle East fester, allowing the emergence of Islamic State militants.

“If there was a single takeaway, it was that we’ve got to stop this decline of the American military,” Cole said.
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China Urges U.S. to Halt Close Up Surveillance of Army, Navy

Sep 10, 2014 3:21 AM GMT
The U.S. should stop its “close in” aerial and naval surveillance of China, a senior Chinese military officer told President Barack Obama’s National Security Adviser Susan Rice, the PLA Daily reported.

General Fan Changlong told Rice on the last day of her three-day visit to Beijing that China hopes the U.S. can take the “correct view” of the development of China’s military, better manage and control frictions, and decrease and even stop close-in military, ship and aircraft surveillance, the state-run newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army.

U.S. surveillance off China’s coast, particularly near the Hainan island naval and submarine base, has been a source of increasing friction between the two countries. On Aug. 19, a Chinese fighter jet flew within 20 feet of a U.S. P-8 Poseidon submarine surveillance aircraft near Hainan, and rolled to expose its weapons to the pilot, according to the Pentagon.

The U.S. plane was in international airspace and the maneuver was unsafe, the Pentagon said after the incident. China said its pilot acted professionally.
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Wang Says Non-Claimants in S. China Sea Shouldn’t ‘Add Trouble’

Sep 8, 2014 7:03 AM GMT
China called on countries not directly involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea not to interfere and “add trouble.”

China understands why countries outside the disputed territories show concern about the issue, but hopes “these countries play a constructive role rather than add trouble,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Australian counterpart Julie Bishop during talks in Sydney yesterday, according to a statement posted on the website of China’s Foreign Ministry.

China and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are fully capable of resolving the disputes and maintaining freedom of navigation in one of the world’s busiest waterways, Wang said, according to the statement.

Tensions have been rising in Southeast Asia as China more aggressively asserts its claims to about 90 percent of the South China Sea. China’s oil drilling near Vietnam triggered deadly anti-Chinese riots there in May, and the Philippines is seeking international arbitration in its dispute with China. The U.S. is treaty-bound to defend the Philippines in a conflict with China and has repeatedly called on countries to resolve their disputes peacefully and respect international law.

“Wang didn’t name the names, but it’s clear to whom the message was sent,” Shen Shishun, senior researcher of the Department of Asia-Pacific Security and Co-Operation at China Institute of International Studies. “The U.S. has been very active in the South China Sea disputes and has strengthened its military ties with some claimant states such as the Philippines.”
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We close for the day with the continental Europeans getting cold feet over committing economic suicide to bail out Uncle Scam’s botched Kiev coup that set off yet another European war.

Russian Stocks Advance on EU Sanctions Delay as Magnit Rallies

Sep 9, 2014 4:25 PM GMT
The Micex Index (INDEXCF) rose for the fifth time in six days as European Union governments put on hold new sanctions against Russia while OAO Magnit advanced after its sales climbed in August.

The equities gauge rose 0.2 percent to 1,468.17 by the close in Moscow. Magnit, the nation’s biggest food retailer, increased 1.8 percent after saying sales last month surged 34 percent from a year earlier. OAO Bashneft, the oil producer controlled by billionaire Vladimir Evtushenkov’s AFK Sistema, jumped 2.4 percent. The central bank said yesterday it allowed Bashneft to issue as many as 45 million shares outside Russia.

A second package of economic penalties against Russia was delayed late yesterday to give the EU more time to assess a cease-fire between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists. Diplomats from the 28 member states will meet in Brussels tomorrow to discuss the truce. The package would extend a ban on share or bond sales in the EU to energy companies, OAO Gazprom Neft, OAO Rosneft and OAO Transneft, and nine defense companies, according to a European official who spoke anonymously.
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Ukraine to German Whammy Stings Polish Corporate Lending

Sep 9, 2014 9:35 AM GMT
Polish corporate lending fell for the first time this year in July as the deepening crisis in Ukraine and stagnant euro-area economies dissuaded companies from borrowing.

Credit fell 0.3 percent in the month from June, the first sequential drop since December, according to central bank data published last week. Zloty loans to large companies slid 3.2 percent in July, the worst showing since 2011, the figures show. Poland’s PMI, a gauge of manufacturing, has worsened for six months, sliding to a one-year low in August, according to HSBC Holdings Plc statistics.

Growth is being squeezed as the country’s two biggest export markets, Germany and Russia, tilt toward recessions, weakening corporate appetite to take on debt to expand operations. With the economy under pressure, interest rates may fall from a record low as soon as next month, central bank Governor Marek Belka said Sept. 3.

“Sentiment and expectations are worsening,” Kamil Stolarski, an analyst at Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento SA, said by phone from Warsaw yesterday. “With the Ukrainian conflict on one side and the deteriorating situation in Germany on the other, companies are facing more difficult times and it’s hard to expect them to decide on new investments.”
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Dougal was a typical Scot. His wife Janet had just died and he wanted to place the least expensive death notice. He went to the newspaper office and wrote on the lodgement from, "Janet died." The clerk explained that there was a minimum charge and he could have five words. Dougal added three more words: "Janet died, Toyota for sale.

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 63.92 Moz, Eligible 115.86 Moz, Total 179.78 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today. it’s the banksters again. This time out, it’s the ECB seriously mispricing global debt and fuelling leveraged asset bubbles. So what happens when global debt gets repriced back to market rates? Don’t ask, try not to be around.

At an antiques auction in Glasgow a wealthy American announced that he had lost his wallet containing £1,000 and would give a reward of £100 to the person who found it. From the back of the hall a Scottish voice shouted, "I'll give £150!"

ECB Replaces Fed as Driver of Emerging Markets: Chart

Sep 10, 2014 12:24 AM GMT
The European Central Bank is overtaking the Federal Reserve as the biggest driver of emerging-market assets, giving bonds from Brazil to Poland a boost from lower borrowing costs in the euro area, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows that the 90-day correlation between bond yields in emerging markets and euro-zone countries has increased to 0.52 from 0.18 in May, data compiled by Bloomberg and JPMorgan Chase & Co. show. A reading of 1 indicates the two move in lockstep.

Developing-nation bonds have rallied with European debt since June when the ECB introduced a negative deposit rate to spur economic growth, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets in emerging countries. President Mario Draghi unexpectedly cut all three of the central bank’s main interest rates on Sept. 4 and signaled at least 700 billion euros ($906 billion) in stimulus, just as the Fed is paring back its monetary accommodations.

“The shift towards an extended period of ultra-low cost funding from the ECB is making European monetary dynamics a more important driver of EM bonds,” Dominic Wilson, chief markets economist at New York-based Goldman Sachs, wrote in a report on Sept. 8. “Europe is in the driving seat to a greater degree than the U.S. rate market currently,” which supports emerging-market bonds and stocks, he wrote.

Yields on emerging-market local currency bonds fell to 6.5 percent as of Sept. 8, from a four-year high of 7.2 percent in January, according to JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified Index. The gauge reached 6.46 percent on July 23, the lowest since October.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-09/ecb-replaces-fed-as-driver-of-emerging-markets-chart-of-the-day.html 

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished Aug.

DJIA: +152 Down. NASDAQ: +312 Down. SP500: +231 Down.  

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