Baltic Dry Index. 1075 -14
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"If the financial system goes down, our business is going down and, trust me, yours and everyone else's is going down, too."
Lloyd Blankfein. CEO Goldman Sachs. God’s Worker. November 8, 2009
While Britain and Europe were distracted last week
over whether or not the Scots were going to pull the plug on the 300 year old
UK Union, and set off the race to Balkanise continental Europe, the world’s top
central banksters and their ilk and bag carriers were headed off to sunny
Cairns Australia. No cairn accommodation for them, when travelling of the
public purse to dip their snouts into the public’s trough, nothing less than 5
star accommodation will suffice. Scots canny thriftiness it aint. Austerity
aint for the elite. “You didn’t really believe, “we’re all in it together did
you?””
Below, the outcome of the Cretin’s Council. The
group that never saw 2007-2009 coming.
G-20 Warns of Potential Market Risks Amid Uneven Growth
Sep 22, 2014 12:37 AM GMT
Group of 20 finance chiefs and central bankers said low interest
rates could lead to a potential increase in financial-market risk,
as major economies rely on monetary stimulus to bolster uneven growth. “We are mindful of the potential for a build-up of excessive risk in financial markets, particularly in an environment of low interest rates and low asset price volatility,” the G-20 officials said yesterday in a communique released in Cairns, Australia. “We welcome the stronger economic conditions in some key economies, although growth in the global economy is uneven.”
The remarks reflect a patchy global economic recovery since a February G-20 meeting in Sydney. While the U.S. and U.K. economies have improved and stock markets gained, Europe risks slipping into deflation and concerns are mounting that China’s 7.5 percent economic growth target for 2014 is becoming harder to attain.
“It is critical that we take concrete steps to boost growth and create jobs,” Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey, who hosted the meeting, told reporters after the communique was released. “We will use all levers available, including additional fiscal and monetary policy leverage where appropriate.”
More
Back in the real world, well the fantasy land known
as the EUSSR, the Great Disconnect gets ever more disconnected. But the day of
reconnection inevitably draws closer. Winter 2014-2015 closes in. Below Italy,
followed by the bottomless pit of the US puppet failed state of the Ukraine.
The solution to Italy’s woes is quite simple – leave the euro
Unless something big starts to change soon, Italy is on course for the mother and father of a sovereign default
No country epitomises the
European economic malaise better than Italy. People often say that Italy cannot
get into trouble because it is so rich. It is. Rich in natural beauty and
historical treasures, with wonderful cities and beautiful countryside, lovely
people, marvellous food and wine and an attractive way of life. But as a
country it doesn’t really work.
Some aspects of the problem have
been there for ages; some are comparatively new. Before the war, much of Italy
was poor. During the 1950s and 1960s, although Italian politics were chaotic
and government was dysfunctional, as it industrialised the economy grew very
fast and it climbed up the GDP leagues. In 1979, in respect of measured GDP,
Italy even overtook the UK, an event that the Italians rejoiced in, calling it
Il Sorpasso.
The underlying problems were
disguised. Although there was a tendency for inflation to be high, relief was
always close at hand in the shape of a weaker lira. And the economy kept
growing. But then it all started to go wrong. The UK overtook Italy again in
1995 and the gap between the two economies has been widening ever since.
To get the problem in
perspective, all G7 countries except Italy and Japan have now exceeded the
level of GDP they enjoyed before the Great Recession. Canada is 9pc above the
2008 level, while Italian GDP is still 9pc below. What’s more, the economy is
contracting.
Mind you, not all of this is due
to the euro. There is a desperate need for reform yet the political system
seems incapable of delivering what is needed. And Italy has been one of the
prime sufferers from the rise of the emerging markets.
Whereas Germany produces
high-spec, large consumer durables and machinery, Italy has been specialised in
precisely the low-to mid-spec consumer goods which China and others have come
to produce more cheaply.
The euro has certainly not helped
because, from the start, Italian costs continued to rise faster than they did
in Germany and other core countries. This time, though, there was no let out
from the exchange rate. So Italian costs and prices were left high and dry.
More
Prada Drops After Profit Drop, Weak Second-Half Forecast
Sep 22, 2014 4:50 AM GMT
Prada
SpA (1913) fell the most in more than three months after reporting
first-half profit declined on weak demand in Asia and Europe and forecast
similar conditions for the rest of the year. The Milan-based maker of shoes and handbags fell as much as 4.9 percent to HK$49 in Hong Kong trading, the biggest loss since June 6. The stock was down 4.4 percent as of 11:39 a.m. local time, while the Hang Seng Index (2828) fell 1.3 percent.
Net income fell 21 percent to 245 million euros ($315 million) in the six months through July as sales grew at the slowest pace in three years, Prada reported on Sept. 19. It said it expected the second half to be “broadly in line” with the first six months.
“We believe negative earnings momentum will continue on the back of a difficult retail environment,” Barclays Plc analysts led by Julian Easthope wrote in a report today, citing increasing competition in leather goods and a continuation of the negative trends for Prada.
Prada joins LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) and Gucci-owner Kering SA (KER), who also reported declines in first-half earnings.
Europe will never be the same after Scot vote, nor will British euroscepticism
Scottish nationalism has lit the blue touch paper beneath Europe's separatist fault lines
Each of Europe’s aggrieved clans sent witnesses to Scotland for the vote. Some were nationalities seeking statehood, some more explosively seeking Anschluss with a mother country broken by victors’ cartography after the First World War.The flaming red and yellow Senyera of the Catalans flew over Edinburgh. The German-speakers of the Sud-Tirol sent a delegation, careful not to violate Italian law by speaking too loudly of reunion with Austria. The Corsicans turned up. Flemings who could not make it lit candles on the Scottish Saltire in Brussels.
The Bosnian Serbs invoked the precedent, and so did Okinawan separatists in Japan as the chain reaction reached Asia. If the Okinawans get anywhere, their island will become a strategic hot potato, pitting China and Japan against each other on the world’s most dangerous fault line. Chinese nationalists are already combing through archives to bolster claims to the land dating back to the early Ming Dynasty in the 14th century
----What matters to them is the precedent set by this
extraordinary episode. Scotland’s right to self-determination was recognised.
The British state allowed events to run their course, vowing to accept the
outcome. “It is a great lesson for democracy for the whole world. What we have
seen in Scotland is the only way to settle conflicts,” said Artur Mas, the
Catalan leader.
“We
could have blocked it, said David Cameron, “but I am a democrat. It was right
that we respected the SNP’s majority in Holyrood and gave the Scottish people
their say.” These words are gold for elected separatists everywhere. Yet you
can hear teeth clenching in the chancelleries of Europe. Pandora’s Jar is open,
for good and ill.
More
Ukraine Economic Indicators Down 20% And Still Plunging: Thanks For The Coup, Washington!
by Contributor •
Re-posted From Sober LookWhile we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn’t been sufficient discussion about the dire economic and fiscal conditions the nation is facing. Writing about men in masks fighting in eastern Ukraine sells far more advertising than covering the nation’s economic activity.
However it’s the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink. And just to be clear, some of Kiev’s economic and fiscal problems were visible long before the spat with Russia (see post from 2012).
Ukraine is now in recession. Deep economic ties with Russia have resulted in painful adjustments in recent months. The nation’s exports are down some 19% from last year in dollar terms and expected to fall further. A great example of Ukraine’s export challenges is the Antonov aircraft company known for its Soviet era large transport planes as well as other types of aircraft.
As the military cooperation with
Russia ended, Antonov was in trouble. It had to take a $150 million hit
recently by not delivering the medium-range An-148 planes to the Russian Air
Force. The Russians will find a replacement for this aircraft, but in the
highly competitive global aircraft market, it’s far less likely that Antonov
will find another client.
Here are some key indicators of
Ukraine’s worsening situation:
1. The nation’s GDP is down
almost 5% from a year ago and growth is expected to worsen.
2. Ukraine’s retail sales are falling at the rate we haven’t
seen since the financial crisis.
3. And industrial production is collapsing.
4. The most immediate concern however is the nation’s
currency, which has been trading near record lows in spite of currency
controls. In fact Friday’s fall in hryvnia was unprecedented (over 11%),
as Kiev fails to stem capital outflows.
More
In Asia, the hard landing looks to be back on again
for China, with more pressure to come for commodities and the BRICS. Will the
iron ore price slump crater Brazil and Australia? The crude oil swoon bust
America’s oil patch and Scotland’s dream? With stock market crash season
rapidly approaching and the FED still proposing the end of QE forever next
month, our great disconnect is about to get tested as never before.
Asia Stocks Drop With U.S. Futures, Commodities on China
Sep 22,
2014 6:41 AM GMT
Asian
stocks fell, led by Hong Kong shares, and U.S
equity-index futures tumbled with commodities amid speculation China may
accept slower growth. Bonds rallied after officials from the world’s biggest
economies warned of rising financial risks, and silver plunged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7 percent by 2:38 p.m. in Tokyo, as the Hang Seng Index retreated 1.4 percent on elevated trading volume. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.5 percent. SoftBank Corp. drove Japanese shares lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as yields on government bonds from the U.S., Japan and Australia slid. South Korea’s won rebounded from a five-month low. Silver slumped with copper and nickel in London and Brent oil slid 0.5 percent.
China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said growth in Asia’s largest economy faces downward pressure and reiterated that there won’t be major changes in policy in response to individual economic indicators
More
Asia May Need to Sacrifice Growth to Cope With Fed: Basri
Sep 22, 2014 3:21 AM GMT
Asia’s developing nations may have to sacrifice some growth next year and
focus on keeping their economies stable amid potential fallout from higher U.S.
interest rates, Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said. Capital outflows are a threat facing emerging markets as the prospect of the Federal Reserve lifting rates
lures funds, Basri said in an interview yesterday in Cairns, Australia, where Group of 20 finance chiefs met.
In Indonesia, where the benchmark rate is already at its highest since 2009, policy makers may have to tighten further to preserve the nation’s relative appeal to investors, he said.
“In the short term, some emerging markets may have to choose stabilization over growth,” Basri said. “You cannot promote economic growth when dealing with this issue. It will exacerbate the situation.”
The U.S. dollar has appreciated as the Fed edges closer to its first rate increase since 2006, while Indonesia’s rupiah has dropped for five straight weeks amid global funds pulling money from local stocks in anticipation of higher U.S. borrowing costs. As some of the world’s fastest-growing economies adapt to changing policy at the Fed, their contribution to global expansion might weaken, Basri said.
More
I suspect that what follows The Great Disconnect is
The Great Crash and re-imposition of QE Forever, but without much affect. The
Great Crash should end for all time the pretensions of the EUSSR.
“To shorten winter, borrow some money due in spring.”
V. J. Vogel.
'T-Rex' of winters in store for Canada: Old Farmer's Almanac
Last Updated Thursday, September 18, 2014
10:26PM EDT
Brace yourself: the Old Farmer’s Almanac has revealed its predictions for
Canada’s upcoming winter season, and it’s not great news.After last winter’s seemingly never-ending wickedly cold weather, residents in much of the country can expect more of the same in the coming months.
“We’re looking at the T-Rex of winters,” Jack Burnett, editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, said on CTV’s Canada AM on Thursday.
Bundle Up: Farmers' Almanac Predicts Frigid Winter in the U.S. - Here's How to Prepare!
The Farmers’
Almanac, which correctly predicted last winter’s frigid conditions,
is saying that this year will be just as miserable. “Shivery and shovelry are
back. We’re calling for some frigid conditions, bitter conditions,” said
managing editor Sondra Duncan.
The 2014-2015
edition predicts that three-quarters of the nation will experience
below-normal temperatures. The most frigid temps will be found from the
Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. And if you’re planning a tropical vacation,
you might want to schedule it for January through the beginning of February,
when the frigid, arctic air will drop temperatures to 40 below 0 across the
Great Lakes. “We are red-flagging the first 10 days of January and the first
week of February along the Atlantic seaboard for active wintry weather
featuring bouts of heavy precipitation and strong winds,” says Caleb
Weatherbee, the official forecaster for the Farmers’ Almanac.
More
Weather forecasts predict colder winter in Europe this year
September 17, 1:00 UTC+4
“Frequent invasions of cold air with short warm spells are expected,” said Rosgidromet head, Roman Vilfand
MOSCOW, September 16. /ITAR-TASS/. The upcoming winter in European is
expected to be colder than the 2012-2013 winter, Russian federal hydrometeorology
and environmental monitoring service (Rosgidromet) said on Tuesday.“Frequent invasions of cold air with short warm spells are expected,” said Rosgidromet head, Roman Vilfand
“Frequent invasions of cold air with short warm spells are expected,” said Rosgidromet head, Roman Vilfand.
He said that last year’s stable cyclonic weather in the Arctic had ensured the influx of warm air from the Atlantic Ocean. Forecasts for the coming winter say that cyclones in the Arctic will be followed by anticyclones that will “pump” icy wind from the Barents and Kara Seas to Western Europe. The coldest weather is expected in February when air temperatures may drop much below average.
Winter will be also cold in European Russia, in Belarus and Ukraine.
According to Rosgidromet forecasts, the weather in western Ukraine will be colder than usual in November. Colder weather is also forecasted in the Caucasian republics. February will be the coldest winter month.
"There are some gambling banksters upon this earth of yours," returned God, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in “Gods” name, who are as strange to us and all our kith and kin, as if they had never lived.”
With Apologies to A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens.
At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 64.89 Moz,
Eligible 115.76 Moz, Total 180.65 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Now that Scotland’s been saved for the 1707 wealth
transfer Union again, time for a glimpse of Undiscovered Scotland. A Scotland
nearly ruined by the power of the old socialist/nationalist vote of Greater
Glasgow. Better rule from from away Westminster than misrule from sectarian
greater Glasgow.
Below, the Scotland even few Scots get to see.
There are two seasons in Scotland: June and
Winter.
Billy Connolly
Ardnamurchan Point
Undiscovered Scotland: The Ultimate Online Guide
Mainland
Great Britain's most northerly point is not, as usually thought, John o' Groats. It is actually
the nearby Dunnet Head. And mainland
Great Britain's westernmost point? Anyone suggesting it's somewhere in Cornwall
is well wide of the mark. It is actually a rocky outcrop called Corrachadh Mòr,
some three quarters of a mile south (and some 30-50 yards further west,
depending on how you measure it) of Ardnamurchan Point, which forms the tip of
a peninsula that extends like an accusing finger between the islands of Mull to its south
and Eigg, Rum and more
distant Skye to its north.
It takes a little effort to get to Ardnamurchan Point, whether from the Corran Ferry, 45 miles to the east, or from the A830 Fort William to Mallaig road before coming south through Acharacle and then heading west along the peninsula. The third alternative is by ferry from Tobermory on Mull to Kilchoan, the only significant settlement on Ardnamurchan.
Two of these alternatives involve driving at least 30 miles of single track roads to reach Ardnamurchan Point, and 30 more to return. For more information, visit our feature page on driving single track roads. As you travel west from Kilchoan to Ardnamurchan Point you increasingly feel you must be coming to land's end, but sightings of the lighthouse are at best fleeting in this rock strewn and bumpy landscape.
But
while reaching this most western outpost of mainland Britain takes effort,
being here is worth every ounce of it. Ardnamurchan Point is a wild, lonely,
and stunningly beautiful place offering superb views of many nearby (and not so
nearby) islands. You know you are getting close to the end of your journey when
you come to a gateway in the road guarded by traffic lights, probably the only
set within fifty miles. When these turn to green you proceed along a narrow
stone-walled road and around a rocky hill: and ahead of you is Ardnamurchan
Lighthouse.
More
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Kilchoan
Undiscovered Scotland: The Ultimate Online Guide
Kilchoan
is the most westerly village in mainland Great Britain. Until about 1900 it was
accessible only by sea. Then a
road was built to link Ardnamurchan with the the rest of Scotland at Salen, 23
miles to the east.
Kilchoan itself is the only significant settlement in western Ardnamurchan. With a population of around 150 it straggles along the main road and around Kilchoan Bay under the shadow of Beinn na Seig to the west.
Opposite the Ardnamurchan Parish Church is a road running past the new Tourist Information Centre and Community Centre to Mingary Pier. In times gone by this was a calling point for ferries en route from Oban to the Western Isles.
These days it is the terminus for a ferry linking Kilchoan with Tobermory, on Mull. It is only Tobermory's extremely sheltered location that stops it being visible from Kilchoan, across the Sound of Mull.
This ferry link to Tobermory is operated by CalMac and provides an alternative route into or out of Ardnamurchan. This opens up the possibility of a major circular excursion of the West Highlands and Mull including the Corran and Oban to Mull ferries.
Mingary is also home to the formidable Mingary Castle. This was built in the 1200s, effectively by building on the top of a naturally occurring outcrop of rock right on the shore of the bay. The buildings inside the curtain wall date back to 1600s alterations. Mingary Castle was built for the MacIans of Ardnamurchan and had an eventful history, including use by James IV in 1493 and 1495 to help him suppress the Lords of the Isles.
In 1588 the Macleans of Duart tried to capture Mingary Castle with help from a passing Spanish ship en route home from the failure of the Armada (which they subsequently blew up in Tobermory harbour). Later the castle was captured during the Wars of the Covenant in 1644 and 1646, and it served as a government garrison during the 1745 Jacobite uprising (see our Historical Timeline). Today it can be reached along the shore from the pier, but it is unclear how safe the structure now is.
More
http://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/kilchoan/kilchoan/index.html
Driving Single Track Roads
You
have to look much harder to find single track roads in Scotland than used to be
the case: but they're still there. As you travel further north
and west, and in particular on Scotland's islands, you will sooner or later
find yourself on a road too narrow to pass the vehicle coming the other way towards
you.
Driving these
roads
requires thought and concentration. There are usually plenty of passing places
(but they can get fewer and further between on more minor roads), and these are
usually, but not always, marked with one of the signs shown on the left or with
the striped pole also shown. But unless you want to make yourself very
unpopular, remember that these are passing and not
parking places.
The trick on single track roads
is to drive with a combination of consideration and assertiveness. In an ideal
world, vehicles approaching one another should adjust their speeds so as to
meet at a passing place. That way neither waits for the other, and both proceed
at best speed. It is also worth remembering that we do drive on the left in the
UK, and even on a single track road it pays to keep to the left as much as
possible. That way, if you do meet someone you've not seen coming the other
way, who hasn't seen you, you both stand the best chance of avoiding actual
physical contact.
Bear in mind that if the passing
place is on the right and you reach it first, stop on the left side of the road
opposite the passing place: pulling across to the right is as good a way to
lose your no-claims bonus as any. Also bear in mind the - not always well
respected - convention that traffic going downhill should try to be considerate
to traffic going uphill.
----There's a point
of view that suggests that we tourists ought to be more prepared to give way to
people making their living by driving these roads, and we've got a lot of
sympathy for that. You should also bear in mind that the driver of the white
van coming towards you probably doesn't own his vehicle, and therefore probably
cares less about it than you do about your car.
More
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"It's
snowing still," said Eeyore gloomily.
"So
it is."
"And
freezing."
"Is
it?"
"Yes," said Eeyore. "However," he said,
brightening up a little, "we haven't had an earthquake lately.
A. A.
Milne.
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished Aug.
DJIA: +152 Down. NASDAQ: +312 Down. SP500: +231 Down.
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