Baltic Dry Index. 1062 +13
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"There
is no reason whatever to fear a crash".
Charles
Mackay. 2 October 1845, Glasgow Argus, on Railway Mania.
What does China know that we don’t? Below China
Investment Corp sold a major stake in Asia’s biggest commodity trader. Dr.
copper, iron ore, crude oil prices, and
the Baltic Dry Index struggling around 1000, are all signalling an
economic slowdown ahead, and that’s not good for commodities. But does CIC know
more about the slowdown in China than the rest of us? With China about to head
off for a week of holidays, and the Hong Kong Federation of Students calling
for more street demonstrations on October 1st and October 2nd,
the next few days are critical. Suddenly America’s War Party has gone into
hiding.
Noble Drops Most Since 2012 as CIC Cuts Stake: Singapore Mover
Sep 30, 2014 3:34 AM GMT
Noble
Group Ltd. (NOBL), Asia’s
biggest commodity trader by revenue, fell the most in almost two years in
Singapore trading as its second-largest shareholder offered to sell part of its
stake. China Investment Corp.’s Best Investment unit offered 300 million Noble shares at S$1.32 to S$1.35 in a block trade, according to a term sheet obtained by Bloomberg. A trade of that size took place at S$1.32 at 9:16 a.m. local time.
Noble tumbled 7.5 percent to S$1.29 at 10:12 a.m. local time, the biggest decline since Nov. 14, 2012. The benchmark Straits Times index lost 0.8 percent. Prior to the trade, Best Investment held 930.6 million shares, or about 14 percent, of Hong Kong-based Noble, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The CIC offer was reported earlier by the Wall Street Journal.
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China Factory Gauge Falls From Initial Reading
Sep 30, 2014 3:46 AM GMT
A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell from an initial reading a week ago as a
property slump weighs on the world’s second-largest economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics for September was at 50.2, lower than the preliminary figure of 50.5 and unchanged from August. Numbers above 50 signal expansion. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong extended losses after the report.
Economists have cut estimates for this year’s gross domestic product growth after data on industrial profits, factory output and credit showed a deteriorating outlook. While the government has set an expansion target of about 7.5 percent for this year, Premier Li Keqiang and other policy makers have insisted for months they don’t need strong stimulus measures.
“The reading shows China’s economy is still biased toward weakening,” said Zhou Hao, a Shanghai-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “It’s quite clear that the central bank is reluctant to conduct any broad-based easing, and the economic weakness is likely to continue.”
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Hong Kong Protesters Block Roads as Leaders Set Deadline
Sep 30, 2014 4:42 AM GMT
Small numbers of protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in
the fifth day of pro-democracy demonstrations as leaders warned the standoff
would escalate if their demands are not met. Crowds swelled to the tens of thousands last night as police largely kept their distance, avoiding the clashes of Sept. 28 that seemed to fuel the demonstrations. By morning, enough people remained in the Admiralty district for key roads to stay blocked as workers commuted by foot and metro. The benchmark Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined for a second day, slipping to a three-month low.
----The Hong Kong Federation of Students said yesterday that more people will join the protests on Oct. 1 and 2 if the government fails to respond. Protest organizers are insisting that the city’s top political figure, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, resign and that the government in Beijing drops plans to control who gets to run as Leung’s successor in 2017.
“We wish Hong Kong people can show Beijing that we will stay strong,” Chan Kin-man, a leader of Occupy Central with Love and Peace, a group involved in the protests, told reporters yesterday. “We wish people can keep on till at least October 1, and we might have to fight for a longer time.”
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How to End Hong Kong Protests a Tricky Question for Xi
Sep 29, 2014 11:27 PM GMT
The most violent protests in Hong Kong in almost 50 years pose a dilemma for
President Xi Jinping: clear the streets and risk embedding
anti-China sentiment in a city that has prized its relative freedom, or make
concessions and appear weak at home. Tens of thousands of protesters returned to the streets last night, refusing to back down after Hong Kong police on Sept. 28 fired tear gas and pepper spray in the worst clashes since unrest swept the city in 1967, led by pro-Communist groups inspired by Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. The protests prompted banks to close branches in the central area and pushed the main Hong Kong stock market index down 1.9 percent yesterday.
As China prepares to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, Xi may want to demonstrate his grip on power on the mainland as he presses an anti-corruption drive that has snared senior officials and seeks to curb separatist sentiment in the Xinjiang region. Even so, acting forcefully to quell the protests may threaten Hong Kong’s standing as a city where businesses prize the rule of law and citizens cherish their freedom of expression.
“When push comes to shove, Xi Jinping has to calculate what this means for his own authority,” said David Zweig, professor of political science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It is a delicate balance between not having a terrible outcome in the streets and looking weak. I am not sure if the students quite understand that.”
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Elsewhere in East Asia, there was more economic gloom
too. Suddenly the Great Global Wobble looks like something much more ominous.
Japan’s Output Unexpectedly Slumps as Retail Sales Rise
Sep 30, 2014 5:45 AM GMT
Japan’s output unexpectedly
fell while stronger retail sales and an improving job market showed resilience
in the world’s third-biggest economy as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe weighs
another sales-tax
increase. Industrial production declined 1.5 percent in August from July, compared with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a 0.2 percent gain. Retail sales increased 1.9 percent and the jobless rate slid to 3.5 percent.
The data underscore headwinds for manufacturers as the yen trading near a six-year low fails to lift output, even as domestic demand crawls back after a blow from April’s tax hike. Abe’s government has signaled it’s prepared to boost stimulus to help consumers and businesses weather any further increase in the levy next year.
“Consumption related data shows signs of picking up but
production is weak, so the negative side prevailed overall,” said Akiyoshi
Takumori, chief economist, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-29/japan-s-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-in-august.html
We end for September on an up note. The future is
bright and green. With next generation solar panel efficiencies of 30 to 40
percent less than a decade away, I think Mr. Zheng is on to something which
isn’t just the usual casino capitalism rent seeking. President Obama tucks in.
This ailing continent needs newer and better politicians. But where could we find them? There is no sign of a European Obama or anything remotely like him.
Der Spiegel
Property Tycoon Revealing $20 Billion Solar-Led Portfolio
Sep 30, 2014 12:00 AM GMT
The Hong Kong property
tycoon who gathered almost $20 billion in Chinese solar manufacturing assets is
expanding his reach in other green energy technologies and may seek Wall Street
money to do it. Zheng Jianming, chairman and founder of Asia Pacific Resources Development Investment Ltd., is considering a public listing for the holding company he created to manage what may be the biggest collection of solar-manufacturing businesses.
The Hong Kong-based company is also investing in battery technology, electric cars, geothermal systems and even units that use seawater to store electricity. The goal is to supply clean energy for almost every aspect of daily life, “from the power source to heating and cooling, lighting and vehicles,” Zheng said.
“If a city were to implement all of these technologies it would basically be low-carbon,” he said in an interview in New York. “My vision for this company isn’t just for China. I want to create a global company.”
Zheng, 50, estimates he’s invested $2.5 billion to $3 billion in clean power over the past decade. That includes almost $1 billion to become the largest shareholder in Shunfeng Photovoltaic International Ltd. (1165), a panel maker and power-plant developer based in Changzhou, China, with shares listed in Hong Kong.
More
Smog Clouds Shanghai’s Drive to Become Global Financial Center
Sep 29, 2014 11:00 PM GMT
Shanghai is cracking
down on polluters with the introduction of stricter fines to combat the
hazardous smog levels that are testing its drive to become a global financial
center. Beginning tomorrow, the city will boost the maximum penalty for pollution fivefold to 500,000 yuan ($82,000). Repeat offenders, whether companies or individuals, risk additional fines.
The penalties are designed to address the growing problem of deteriorating air quality in China’s second-most populous city. Dirty air undermines quality of life and threatens to discourage foreign financial industry talent from choosing the city over places like Hong Kong or Singapore as it tests open-market policies with a free-trade zone.
“High-end financial talent usually has a high work intensity combined with greater mobility,” Li Zhiguo, an associate professor from Shanghai’s Fudan University, said by e-mail. “They’re more sensitive to air quality issues.”
Shanghai’s level of PM2.5, the small particles that pose the greatest risk to human health, averaged 62 micrograms per cubic meter in 2013, almost double the national standard of 35, the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau said in its annual environmental report. The average PM2.5 level in major financial hubs globally is 20, Fudan University’s Li said
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Obama tucks into halibut and mango creme brulee while Indian PM fasts during White House dinner
Months after being elected in a landslide, India's dynamic but controversial new prime minister Narendra Modi comes to Washington to reboot ties with America despite religious festival
Barack Obama and Narendra Modi, India's new prime minister, had plenty on their plates when they met for a working dinner at the White House on Monday - or at least one of them did.As a strict Hindu, Mr Modi was observing a fast for the festival of Navrati, so sipped only the warm water that has sustained him for the nine holy days which have fallen during his whirlwind tour of the US, leaving presidential chefs with something of a dilemma.
In the end, the menu card suggested Mr Obama did not hold back. Along with the other guests he ate avocado, goat's cheese and baby bell peppers to start, followed by pan-friend halibut and mango creme brulee for afters.
Indian officials said said Mr Modi had urged the president to tuck in. "Please don't feel embarrassed & please continue with your food," he said.
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"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."
Alan Greenspan
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 66.19 Moz,
Eligible 116.49 Moz, Total 182.68 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
As goes California today so goes America tomorrow.
As goes America today, so goes the rest of the world tomorrow. The Great
Drought in California is pushing food produce prices higher. Will 2015 see the
return of more normal levels of inflation? It will if the dip in oil prices
proves to be only a temporary short term dip.
California harvest much smaller than normal across crops
By Dale Kasler The
Sacramento Bee Published: Sunday, Sep. 28, 2014 - 12:00 am
It’s harvest time in much of California, and the signs of drought are almost
as abundant as the fruits and nuts and vegetables.One commodity after another is feeling the impact of the state’s epic water shortage. The great Sacramento Valley rice crop, served in sushi restaurants nationwide and exported to Asia, will be smaller than usual. Fewer grapes will be available to produce California’s world-class wines, and the citrus groves of the San Joaquin Valley are producing fewer oranges. There is less hay and corn for the state’s dairy cows, and the pistachio harvest is expected to shrink.
Even the state’s mighty almond business, which has become a powerhouse in recent years, is coming in smaller than expected. That’s particularly troubling to the thousands of farmers who sacrificed other crops in order to keep their almond orchards watered.
While many crops have yet to be harvested, it’s clear that the drought has carved a significant hole in the economy of rural California. Farm income is down, so is employment, and Thursday’s rain showers did little to change the equation.
An estimated 420,000 acres of farmland went unplanted this year, or about 5 percent of the total. Economists at UC Davis say agriculture, which has been a $44 billion-a-year business in California, will suffer revenue losses and higher water costs – a financial hit totaling $2.2 billion this year.
Rising commodity prices have helped cushion at least some of the pain, but more hurt could be on the way. With rivers running low and groundwater overtaxed, the situation could get far worse if heavy rains don’t come this winter.
----Central Valley
residents don’t have to look far to see the effects. Roughly one-fourth of
California’s rice fields went fallow this year, about 140,000 acres worth,
according to the California Rice Commission, leaving vast stretches of the Sacramento Valley brown instead of
their customary green.
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"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."
Daniel Webster
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished Aug.
DJIA: +152 Down. NASDAQ: +312 Down. SP500: +231 Down.
