Baltic Dry Index. 893 +03
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
While
local economies may experience significant price imbalances, a national severe
price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and
diversity.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. October 2004.
We open on the 7 th anniversary on the
London Underground and bus bombings, with our thoughts for the survivors and
prayers for the dead and their families. Twelve years on and the Middle East/Levant
seems to be descending into medieval barbarity and ignorance.
Up first, more on the Fed’s“Greatest Disconnect,”
and its coming end. Bubbles don’t
matter, of course they don’t, and neither does the Fed’s Greatest Disconnect.
Remind me again of what happened one day, when suddenly bubbles did matter?
Stripping out the quaint language these elite banksters use to lie to each
other, this is about as close a call to “stock market bust dead ahead,” as our
lying Keynesian Klowns get.
History
has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk
premiums.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. Jackson Hole, August
2005.
Lagarde Hints at Global Forecast Cut Even as U.S. Rebounds
Jul 6,
2014 4:35 PM GMT
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine
Lagarde signaled a cut in the institution’s global growth forecasts,
saying investment is still weak and that risks remain in the U.S. even as its
rebound accelerates. “The global economy is gathering speed, though the pace may be a bit less than we previously predicted because the growth potential is lower and investment” spending remains lackluster, Lagarde told the Cercle des Economistes conference in Aix-en-Provence, France.
The remarks underline the threats to global economic growth at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve is trimming stimulus and the European Central Bank is fighting inflation that is less than half its targeted level.
The IMF is preparing to update its economic forecasts this month after predicting April 8 that the global economy will expand 3.6 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2015.
Growth in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, is set to accelerate in coming months and Asia’s emerging market economies will avoid a hard landing, though the European recovery is still not as strong as it should be, Lagarde said.
In the U.S. “we expect a significant rebound,” Lagarde said, adding that risks to U.S. growth include the ability of the Fed to taper in an “orderly” manner and that of the Treasury to put in place a medium-term budget framework.
More
We
had a bubble in housing.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. 18 September 2007
Bond Anxiety in $1.6 Trillion Repo Market as Failures Soar
Jul 7,
2014 5:28 AM GMT
In the relative calm that is the market for U.S. Treasuries, a sense of
unease over a vital cog in the financial system’s plumbing is beginning to
rise. The Federal Reserve’s bond purchases combined with demand from banks to meet tightened regulatory requirements is making it harder for traders to easily borrow and lend certain desired securities in the $1.6 trillion-a-day market for repurchase agreements. That’s causing such trades to go uncompleted at some of the highest rates since the financial crisis.
Disruptions in so-called repos, which Wall Street’s biggest banks rely on for their day-to-day financing needs, are another unintended consequence of extraordinary central-bank policies that pulled the economy out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. They also belie the stability projected by bond yields at about record lows.
“You have a little bit of a perfect storm here,” said Stanley Sun, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., one of the 22 primary dealers that bid at Treasury auctions, in a telephone interview June 30.
A smoothly functioning repo market is vital to the health of markets. The fall of Bear Stearns Cos., which was taken over by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 2008 after an emergency bailout orchestrated by the Fed, and collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., whose bankruptcy in September of that year plunged markets into a crisis, was hastened after they lost access to such financing.
More
Modern dynamic
economies do not stay still long enough to allow for an accurate reading of
their underlying structures.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. 2008.
Goldman Sachs Brings Forward Rate Forecast as Treasuries Drop
Jul 7,
2014 6:35 AM GMT
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. brought forward its forecast for the Federal
Reserve to raise interest rates after U.S. employers added more jobs than
forecast, sending Treasuries lower for a fourth day. The Fed will increase its benchmark in the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first three months of 2016, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report yesterday. The investment bank joins companies including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in moving up its Fed estimates after U.S. data last week showed the economy added 288,000 workers in June, compared with the 215,000 projected by a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
“The U.S. is beyond its crisis,” said Hans Kunnen, a senior economist at St. George Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “It has created lots of jobs. There are a lot of things happening in there that are positive, and that tends to come with higher interest rates.”
The U.S. 10-year yield climbed two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.66 percent as of 6:35 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2.5 percent note maturing in May 2024 dropped 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 21/32.
The yield will increase to 2.85 percent by year-end, St. George Bank’s Kunnen said.
More
We generally did not talk about the stock market very much at
the Fed.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. 2008. On Irrational Exuberance and “Black
Monday, “ 1987.
China’s New Economy Stocks Selling Off With the Old
Jul 7, 2014 2:41 AM GMT
ast year’s most-profitable bets on the Chinese economy have turned into money losers in
2014 as policy makers send mixed signals on which industries will lead the
country’s expansion. After surging at least 20 percent for the biggest gains in China’s stock market last year, gauges of technology, health-care and consumer shares have all lost more than 6 percent. The companies, tied to what analysts have dubbed China’s “new economy,” are now falling in tandem with “old economy” stocks in state sectors such as commodities and finance that fueled growth in the last decade. All 10 industries in the CSI 300 Index sank in the first half, the broadest losses in four years.
The declines suggest investors may be doubting China’s commitment to fostering a shift toward technology and services, putting at risk returns on smaller companies that have been the best in the past two years and the biggest among initial public offerings. While President Xi Jinping said in May the nation must adapt to a “new normal” pace of growth, in which innovation plays an increasing role, the government has also sped up state spending and eased credit curbs as the weakening property market puts its 7.5 percent expansion target at risk.
“The
market is now pricing in the risk that China won’t make a successful
transition,” Wang Zheng, the Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi
Investment Management Co., which oversees about $120 million, said by phone on
July 4.
More
In the other news category, so you really, really,
want to buy a lithium battery powered electric vehicle, irrespective of range
anxiety. Better suit up like a Formula One contestant. EVs, a time that hasn’t
yet come, though come it will, eventually, though I think it’s an error to base EVs on Li-ion batteries, which I
a fiery crash give off oxygen fuelling the fire.
Tesla Eager to Study Stolen Model S Split in Fiery Crash
Jul 6, 2014 11:47 PM GMT
Tesla
Motors Inc. (TSLA), the electric-car maker, said it wants to study
the remnants of a stolen Model S sedan that split in half and burned after
a high-speed chase and collision in Los Angeles. The company led by Elon Musk is working with Los Angeles police and fire officials investigating the incident that began early July 4 when an unidentified man stole the Tesla and led police on a high-speed chase. He later collided with several vehicles in West Hollywood and split the car into two parts when he crashed into a lightpole, triggering a battery fire, according to police reports. He was injured in the incident and was taken into custody.
“We’ve asked to take a look at the vehicle as soon as that’s possible,” Simon Sproule, a company spokesman, said in a phone interview. “There aren’t so many S’s involved in major crashes, and certainly not quite like this one, so we absolutely want to have a look to understand what happened.”
The Palo Alto, California-based company’s Model S, priced from $71,000, has a five-star rating for crashworthiness, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s highest designation. Tesla added a titanium plate in March to further strengthen the casing that protects its lithium-ion battery after NHTSA reviewed crashes that triggered Model S fires.
More
We end for the day with a reality check on the rush
to World War Three via the Ukraine. Along the way, continental Europe’s peons
are supposed to commit economic suicide for America’s War Party. About the only
“good news” in this rush to war, America’s War Party failure in Iraq and
Afghanistan, looks like getting us into a war against the Caliphate first.
Seven Obama Lies About The Ukrainian Civil War
by Contributor •
The War on Truth” seems to be an appropriate name for the propaganda war
waged in the theater of global media over the real war in the eastern Ukraine.
I have borrowed the title from an op-ed article in the New York Times by Keith Darden. This particular propaganda war has
human victims and has an influence on the real war in the east of Ukraine. A
real war where human flesh is torn and scorched, limbs are severed and bone
pulverized.To sweep away at least some of the fog of this propaganda war and figure out what’s happening in the Ukraine, we must concentrate on verifiable facts. These facts are being convoluted by the Obama administration, and are keeping the American public from seeing the horror of the Ukrainian situation. The following are false claims that the Obama Administration has made via the popular media:
- That the conflict in Ukraine is a direct result of Russian aggression
More
In general, corruption tends to exist whenever governments have
favors to extend, or something to sell.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan.
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 58.04
Moz, Eligible 117.48 Moz, Total 175.52 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, the totally doubled over, highly discredited, man-made global warming, pseudo-science juggernaut. Flawed computer models, not enough data, especially widespread long term data, and a readiness to jump to premature conclusions by the fanatics of social change and redistribution of wealth, have led the global warming science sector into adopting the modern day equivalent of curing patients via leeches and bloodletting. Repeat after me, the sun does go round planet earth, even if we now know that the world is round.
Global warming computer models confounded as Antarctic sea ice hits new record high with 2.1million square miles more than is usual for time of year
Ice is covering 16m sq km, more than 2.1m unusual for time of year
UN computer models say Antarctic ice should be in decline, not increasing
The levels of Antarctic sea-ice last week hit an
all-time high – confounding climate change computer models which say it should
be in decline.
America’s National Snow And Ice Data Center, which
is funded by Nasa, revealed that ice around the southern continent covers about
16million sq km, more than 2.1 million more than is usual for the time of year.
It is by far the highest level since satellite
observations on which the figures depend began in 1979.
In statistical terms, the extent of the ice cover is hugely significant.
----In its
authoritative Fifth Assessment Report released last year, the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admitted that the computer models on
which scientists base their projections say Antarctic ice should be in decline,
not increasing.
The report said: ‘There is low confidence in the
scientific understanding of the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent
since 1979, due to… incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the
causes of change.
IT'S POLITICS, NOT SCIENCE, DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE MANIA
For years, computer simulations have predicted that sea ice should be disappearing from the Poles.Now, with the news that Antarctic sea-ice levels have hit new highs, comes yet another mishap to tarnish the credibility of climate science.
Climatologists base their doom-laden predictions of the Earth’s climate on computer simulations.
But these have long been the subject of ridicule because of their stunning failure to predict the pause in warming – nearly 18 years long on some measures – since the turn of the last century.
It’s the same with sea ice. We hear a great deal about the decline in Arctic sea ice, in line with or even ahead of predictions.
But why are environmentalists and scientists so much less keen to discuss the long-term increase in the southern hemisphere?
In fact, across the globe, there are about one million square kilometres more sea ice than 35 years ago, which is when satellite measurements began.
It’s fair to say that this has been something of an embarrassment for climate modellers. But it doesn’t stop there.
In recent days a new scandal over the integrity of temperature data has emerged, this time in America, where it has been revealed as much as 40 per cent of temperature data there are not real thermometer readings.
Many temperature stations have closed, but rather than stop recording data from these posts, the authorities have taken the remarkable step of ‘estimating’ temperatures based on the records of surrounding stations.
So vast swathes of the data are actually from ‘zombie’ stations that have long since disappeared.
This is bad enough, but it has also been discovered that the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is using estimates even when perfectly good raw data is available to it – and that it has adjusted historical records.
Why should it do this?
Many have noted that the effect of all these changes is to produce a warmer present and a colder past, with the net result being the impression of much faster warming. They draw their conclusions accordingly.
Naturally, if the US temperature records are indeed found to have been manipulated, this is unlikely to greatly affect our overall picture of rising temperatures at the end of the last century and a standstill thereafter.
The US is, after all, only a small proportion of the globe.
Similarly, climatologists’ difficulties with the sea ice may be of little scientific significance in the greater scheme of things.
We have only a few decades of data, and in climate terms this is probably too short to demonstrate that either the Antarctic increase or the Arctic decrease is anything other than natural variability.
But the relentless focus by activist scientists on the Arctic decline does suggest a political imperative rather than a scientific one – and when put together with the story of the US temperature records, it’s hard to avoid the impression that what the public is being told is less than the unvarnished truth.
As their credulity is stretched more and more, the public will – quite rightly – treat demands for action with increasing caution…
Andrew Mountford
Much of the securitization took the form of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) with senior credit tranches certified by rating agencies as AAA. It was the failure to properly price such risky assets that characterized the crisis.
Disgraced Fallen Guru Alan Greenspsan. The Age of Turbulence,
2008.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: +169 Down. NASDAQ: +332 Down. SP500: +241 Down. The Fed’s final bubble still grows,
but …..
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