Monday, 21 July 2014

A Dangerous Game.



Baltic Dry Index. 732  -06

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

First, many, many thanks to all of you who sent me and my family condolences, thoughts and prayers of comfort following the sudden death of my sister last week. They were greatly appreciated and very comforting.

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

George Orwell. 1984.

Our new lawless times have turned truly bizarre. Following a botched American coup in Kiev, we the west, find ourselves allied to an American puppet regime in the Ukraine composed of anti-semites, neo-Nazis, and a pro-west minority, now in civil war with the eastern minority population that wants to re-join Russia. Into this wholly American created Christian v Christian civil war that risks expanding into a wider regional war, flew 298 luckless innocents only to be shot down in error, mistaken by the Russian Minutemen/patriots/rebels/insurgents who though they were shooting at a Ukrainian military transport plane. Now the propaganda spin machines of both sides have gone into overdrive. Without a change in policy soon, we are headed into a new European war that will quickly go global.

With this escalating propaganda war, well covered in mainstream media, I will leave the subject to others, except to repeat stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver, held outside of the UK and America, where it will likely be confiscated if the Ukraine gambit really goes wrong and we end up in a new European war.

“Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

Sun Tzu. The Art of War.

Also in the world of the bizarre, as France crumbles around him, and capital flight and people flight surge into London, love-rat teenage President Hollande has time for other things. King Louis 16th comes to mind. No matter that France is too big to fail, but too big to bail. All the more so if Germany starts committing national suicide for the American War Party, by imposing real economic sanctions on almost next door Russia. The sooner the UK is out of the EUSSR the better. With European leadership like this and marching to a scatty American war plan, total disaster lies ahead unless EU leaders come to their senses.

François Hollande 'to marry Julie Gayet'

French president reportedly close to proposing to Julie Gayet as party officials ask him to "formalise" his relationship with the actress

By David Chazan, Paris 5:33PM BST 20 Jul 2014
François Hollande may be close to proposing to the actress, Julie Gayet, according to senior Socialist party officials who have reportedly asked the French president to clarify his status.

"We've been hearing for the past three months that he's going to formalise his relationship with Julie Gayet," an official told the newspaper, Le Parisien.

Party leaders are reportedly concerned that if Mr Hollande continues trying to keep his complicated private life out of the public eye, rumours about his relationship with the actress could overshadow the Socialists' 2017 election campaign.

"He has to clarify things and show that it isn't just a casual fling," one leading Socialist told Le Parisien.

Yves Azéroual, the author of a book titled Passions of State, said: "Julie's tired of being the mistress who has to hide. What's more, in the eyes of the public, she looks like the one in the wrong. She's been putting him under pressure for several weeks and he's finally said yes."

----For weeks, public attention focused on Mr Hollande's love life rather than his policies. The affair had little impact on the president's already dismal approval ratings, but it grew increasingly embarrassing for him to face constant questions about it.

If Mr Hollande does marry, it will be for the first time. He did not wed Trierweiler or Ségolene Royale, the mother of his four children. Ms Royale, 60, is now his environment minister.

He is widely reported to have begun an affair with Ms Trierweiler, a journalist, before leaving Ms Royale.
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In other news, America’s folly in setting off a new European war is all too likely to come with a heavy price.  If the Kiev coup had all gone to plan, an American puppet regime would now be in NATO, the Russian Black Sea fleet bottled up and useless. Russia and Belarus undermined, and likely in turmoil facing their own US sponsored and paid for colour revolutions, Presidents Lukashenko and Putin likely gone. The great EurAsian slicing and dicing underway. China isolated and contained.

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld.

The dollar's 70-year dominance is coming to an end

Within a decade, greenback's could be replaced as the world's reserve currency

In early July 1944, delegates from 44 countries gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. A three-week summit took place, at which a new system was agreed to regulate the international monetary and financial order after the Second World War.

The US was already the world’s commercial powerhouse, having eclipsed the British Empire several decades earlier. America was also on course to be among the victors of “Europe’s conflict”, even though its economy was largely unscathed by war. As such, Bretton Woods was US-dominated and produced a settlement largely on US terms.

Seventy years ago this week, that fateful summit ended. Its close marked the moment the dollar’s unquestionable supremacy was secured. Since then, global commerce has been conducted largely in dollars and leading economies have held the greenback as their primary reserve currency.

The same system remains intact today, with the lion’s share of commercial settlements worldwide still clearing the US banking system – even if the parties involved have nothing to do with the States.

The dollar’s hegemony continues to be cemented, meanwhile, by the operations of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Founded at Bretton Woods, they’re both Washington based, of course, and controlled by America, despite some Francophone window-dressing.

The advantages this system bestows on the US are enormous. “Reserve currency status” generates huge demand for dollars from governments and companies around the world, as they’re needed for reserves and trade. This has allowed successive American administrations to spend far more, year-in year-out, than is raised in tax and export revenue.

By the early Seventies, US economic dominance was so assured that even after President Nixon reneged on the dollar’s previously unshakeable convertibility into gold, amounting to a massive default, dollar demand kept growing.

So America doesn’t worry about balance of payments crises, as it can pay for imports in dollars the Federal Reserve can just print. And Washington keeps spending willy-nilly, as the world buys ever more Treasuries on the strength of regulatory imperative and the vast liquidity and size of the market for US sovereign debt.

It is this “exorbitant privilege” – as French statesman Valéry Giscard d’Estaing once sourly observed – that has been the bedrock of America’s post-war hegemony. It is the status of the dollar, above all, that’s allowed Washington to get its way, putting the financial squeeze on recalcitrant countries via the IMF while funding foreign wars. To understand politics and power it pays to follow the money. And for the past 70 years, the dollar has ruled the roost.
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We end for the day with another sign from China that the recent China GDP figure might not be all that it seemed.

China's First Mortgage Debt Since Crisis Shows Li Concern

Jul 21, 2014 3:19 AM GMT
China will revive mortgage-backed debt sales this week after a six-year hiatus, as the government extends help to homebuyers in a flagging property market.

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., which has 39,000 branches in the country, plans to sell 6.8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) of the notes backed by residential mortgages tomorrow, according to a July 15 statement on the website of Chinabond. The last such security in the nation was sold by China Construction Bank Co. in 2007, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

Premier Li Keqiang is seeking to avert a collapse of the real-estate market after data last week showed new home prices dropped in a record number of cities in the world’s second-largest economy. The central bank in May called on the nation’s biggest lenders to accelerate the granting of mortgages to first-home buyers, and cities including Nanning, Hohhot and Jinan eased property restrictions.
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Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.

Dick Cheney August 26, 2002

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 58.98 Moz, Eligible 116.27 Moz, Total 174.36 Moz.  

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Europe’s fixed, so they say. The ECB’s Mr Fixit, Draghi, fixed it two year’s ago, with a promise to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, no matter that it is the cause of the wealth destroying misery inflicted on over half of Europe;s serf, and with his TLTRO program. (Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations.) Well it aint as fixed as Mr. Fixit thinks.  Europe’s banks, just like America’s are all a charade of smoke and mirror accounting, extend and pretend, mark to the fantasy model, and degenerate derivatives gambling. If Europe blows up Russia for America’s War Party, continental Europe will come crashing down with Russia, happily taking America with it. Such is the madness now loose in the world as we approach the 100th anniversary of the start of World War One.

Espirito Santo International files for creditor protection

Holding company of Portugal's second-largest bank says it can't meet its obligations

The Espirito Santo family’s holding company, which owns a stake in Portugal’s second-largest bank, has filed for creditor protection, saying it can’t meet its obligations.

Espirito Santo International, which partially owns Banco Espirito Santo (BES), said in a statement on Friday night that “due to a significant part of its debt maturing” it has applied to be placed under “controlled management” under Luxembourg law, where it is based.

“The controlled management regime will allow the company to defend the interests of its creditors in a transparent and orderly way under the control of the courts and nominated officials, particularly allowing a process of managing the value of the assets for creditors that is more adequate than a rapid and massive liquidation,” the company said in a statement.

In a complex arrangement, Espirito Santo International owns 100pc of RioForte, another holding company, which in turns owns just under 50pc of Espirito Santo Financial Group, which owns 20pc of BES.

Espirito Santo International’s move on Friday night, after markets had closed, came just hours after Portuguese prosecutors said they were investigating the family’s web of businesses.

“There are inquiries under way related to this matter that even pre-date the reports of the past few weeks,” the prosecutors said.

Luxembourg’s justice authorities have already started an investigation into three of the family’s holding companies.

In May, Espirito Santo Financial Group claimed it had found “serious irregularities” in the accounts of Espirito Santo International, including “overvaluations of assets”.

Last month BES rattled European stock and bond markets as the spectre of the eurozone debt crisis was raised again. Fears over BES were triggered by the accounts claims and the fact that Espirito Santo Financial Group missed a payment on short-term debt. Alarm was compounded by the group’s structure, which has been controlled by the Espirito Santo family for nearly 100 years
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Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war.

Donald Rumsfeld.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: +169 Down. NASDAQ: +332 Down. SP500: +241 Down.  The Fed’s final bubble still grows, but …..

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